Trump historical performance in Ohio

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/midawson/status/1212814034384424962

[Annatar]

I think there will be even more counties in Ohio in 2020 where Trump sets all time records, the same trend will help him in states like MI.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The state has trended GOP since 2014, when Kasich was elected Gov, it's always been a center right state.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Ohio and the rest of the Rust Belt will continue to swing back and forth in eight-year cycles, hoping the next guy/party will be the one to save them.

No help is coming. The elite don't need you anymore. Obama and Trump were both pipe dreams. If I had an answer I'd be running for President right now.

[Skill and Chance]

Pretty surprising given Ohio wasn't really a Dem holdout state during the Reagan 84 and Nixon 72 blowouts.

[Calthrina950]

Pretty surprising given Ohio wasn't really a Dem holdout state during the Reagan 84 and Nixon 72 blowouts.

I would say this is partially true. Ohio was more Democratic than the national average in 1972, but more Republican than the national average in 1984.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

It was historical, his performance in Ohio.

[RINO Tom]

Hot take: people really misrepresent Ohio on this forum.  You'd think it was a wasteland of factory workers standing in the street.  Ohio is a huge state with lots of metros, some of which have very Republican suburbs even still.  Has it lost manufacturing jobs?  Yes, of course.  However, it is not more Republican than a state like Pennsylvania because its "WWC" voters are more Republican

WWC Voters
OH: 63-33% GOP
PA: 64-32% GOP

White College Grads
OH: 59-34% GOP
PA: 48-48% Tied

Suburban Voters (59% of all voters in OH, 53% of all voters in PA)
OH: 57-37% GOP
PA: 52-44% GOP (Philly suburbs were 55-42% DEM

For God's sake, POSTGRADS voted for Trump in Ohio, according to exit polls.  It's not a state that is GOP BECAUSE of your caricatures of Ohioans.  The WWC caricatures didn't make the difference in OH like they might have in PA or MI; they padded the margins.  And that is absolutely worth noting.  If Trump took a hit with "WWC" voters, he would lose PA and MI.  He would NOT lose Ohio.

[Non Swing Voter]

Hot take: people really misrepresent Ohio on this forum.  You'd think it was a wasteland of factory workers standing in the street.  Ohio is a huge state with lots of metros, some of which have very Republican suburbs even still.  Has it lost manufacturing jobs?  Yes, of course.  However, it is not more Republican than a state like Pennsylvania because its "WWC" voters are more Republican

WWC Voters
OH: 63-33% GOP
PA: 64-32% GOP

White College Grads
OH: 59-34% GOP
PA: 48-48% Tied

Suburban Voters (59% of all voters in OH, 53% of all voters in PA)
OH: 57-37% GOP
PA: 52-44% GOP (Philly suburbs were 55-42% DEM

For God's sake, POSTGRADS voted for Trump in Ohio, according to exit polls.  It's not a state that is GOP BECAUSE of your caricatures of Ohioans.  The WWC caricatures didn't make the difference in OH like they might have in PA or MI; they padded the margins.  And that is absolutely worth noting.  If Trump took a hit with "WWC" voters, he would lose PA and MI.  He would NOT lose Ohio.

^ never not pretending Republicans are the party of educated and elite white voters.

[Skill and Chance]

Pretty surprising given Ohio wasn't really a Dem holdout state during the Reagan 84 and Nixon 72 blowouts.

I would say this is partially true. Ohio was more Democratic than the national average in 1972, but more Republican than the national average in 1984.

True, but Nixon only did about 1% worse in OH than nationwide and still got 59% losing only 2 counties.  It certainly wasn't like MN or OR.

[RINO Tom]

Hot take: people really misrepresent Ohio on this forum.  You'd think it was a wasteland of factory workers standing in the street.  Ohio is a huge state with lots of metros, some of which have very Republican suburbs even still.  Has it lost manufacturing jobs?  Yes, of course.  However, it is not more Republican than a state like Pennsylvania because its "WWC" voters are more Republican

WWC Voters
OH: 63-33% GOP
PA: 64-32% GOP

White College Grads
OH: 59-34% GOP
PA: 48-48% Tied

Suburban Voters (59% of all voters in OH, 53% of all voters in PA)
OH: 57-37% GOP
PA: 52-44% GOP (Philly suburbs were 55-42% DEM

For God's sake, POSTGRADS voted for Trump in Ohio, according to exit polls.  It's not a state that is GOP BECAUSE of your caricatures of Ohioans.  The WWC caricatures didn't make the difference in OH like they might have in PA or MI; they padded the margins.  And that is absolutely worth noting.  If Trump took a hit with "WWC" voters, he would lose PA and MI.  He would NOT lose Ohio.

^ never not pretending Republicans are the party of educated and elite white voters.

I will extend you a courtesy you rarely choose to give (or are capable of giving) to me - I will respond to what you say in good faith.  In Ohio, in 2016 - which is quite literally all this thread is about - Trump won both groups you mentioned.  I posted actual data of this, and you mocked me with a single jab?  Put some efforts into your posts if you are going to insinuate others are less perceptive than you are.

[Non Swing Voter]

Hot take: people really misrepresent Ohio on this forum.  You'd think it was a wasteland of factory workers standing in the street.  Ohio is a huge state with lots of metros, some of which have very Republican suburbs even still.  Has it lost manufacturing jobs?  Yes, of course.  However, it is not more Republican than a state like Pennsylvania because its "WWC" voters are more Republican

WWC Voters
OH: 63-33% GOP
PA: 64-32% GOP

White College Grads
OH: 59-34% GOP
PA: 48-48% Tied

Suburban Voters (59% of all voters in OH, 53% of all voters in PA)
OH: 57-37% GOP
PA: 52-44% GOP (Philly suburbs were 55-42% DEM

For God's sake, POSTGRADS voted for Trump in Ohio, according to exit polls.  It's not a state that is GOP BECAUSE of your caricatures of Ohioans.  The WWC caricatures didn't make the difference in OH like they might have in PA or MI; they padded the margins.  And that is absolutely worth noting.  If Trump took a hit with "WWC" voters, he would lose PA and MI.  He would NOT lose Ohio.

^ never not pretending Republicans are the party of educated and elite white voters.

I will extend you a courtesy you rarely choose to give (or are capable of giving) to me - I will respond to what you say in good faith.  In Ohio, in 2016 - which is quite literally all this thread is about - Trump won both groups you mentioned.  I posted actual data of this, and you mocked me with a single jab?  Put some efforts into your posts if you are going to insinuate others are less perceptive than you are.

you mean like when you tell posters that their posts are "dumb as hell" - that courtesy?  I could have sworn that was your response when I said Trump lost the college educated white vote.  Odd.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/27/upshot/trump-losing-college-educated-whites-he-never-won-them-in-the-first-place.html

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sigh...., housing cost arent keeping up with minimum wages; as a result, Trump not raising the minimum wage is hurting him. Ohio has the most expensive rents in the country next to SF and HONOLULU

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Trump's performance in Ohio is not that historical overall. The history making part is because he 1. maxed out some rural counties in heavily German West Ohio and 2. made substantial gains in parts of the state that used to be heavily Democratic or at least swing regions (SE and South Central) turning them into Republican bastion.

Meanwhile you have the almost straight line that can be drawn from NE OH to SW OH that stretches from the old Western Reserve, to Colombus metro to the Cincinnati metro. This was the old GOP base in Ohio, the middle class residents of these three metros and virtually none of those areas are colored in on that list. 

Sigh...., housing cost arent keeping up with minimum wages; as a result, Trump not raising the minimum wage is hurting him. Ohio has the most expensive rents in the country next to SF and HONOLULU

If Trump had actually raised the minimum wage and instead of doing across the board tax cuts had significantly boosted the earned income tax credit, combined with some substantial tax benefits to small and new businesses, Trump would have easily accomplished the fig leaf promise of $4,000 increase in disposable incomes. This would have also drastically reduced dependency and usage of things like food stamps and welfare, without sink or swim cuts that just leave people to die in the streets.

The problem is Trump doesn't have enough political engagement in the issues to that get done, his bunker mentality has made him hunker down with the types most likely to oppose such policies while at the same time alienating anyone who would be interested in that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kasich was the reason why Rs won back Ohio, Biden can change Ohio back D and Tim Ryan can run against Portman, Ohio is one of the most expensive states to live in and Trump, whom said he was open to raising minimum wag4 lives and we are stuck at wages not keeping up with gas or housing costs

[bagelman]

I used mapster to determine just how much of a performance it was.

Counties on this map: 3.7 mil (32% of Ohio), Romney +9.7 -> Trump +33 (R+23.3)

Other counties: 7.8 mil (68% of Ohio), Obama +7.2 -> Clinton +2.4 (R+4.8)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ohio isnt guaranteed to Trump and Trump is guaranteed to lose the popular vote again. Trump won the midwest with over performance of GOP candidates of Portman, Toomey and Johnson; while GOP candidates are underperforming him; consequently,  Trump will lose