2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[CumbrianLefty]

Seeming overly eager to lift virus lockdowns generally does not appear to be terribly popular.

[CumbrianLefty]

In the past they have joined up with National, presumably that could happen again?

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, isn't New Zealand one of those very few countries where the left (Labor) is actually more anti-immigration than the right (National)?

Genuine question - *is* that actually true?

Historically of course, NZ Labour was one of *the* very first leftist parties to embrace the "third way" (and of course certain people like Douglas went much further than even that) whilst the National Party under Muldoon embraced centrist or even left economic populism. So this surely hasn't always been true, even if it indeed is now.

[CumbrianLefty]

As far as I know Labour supports a higher refugee resettlement intake, while generally also supporting stricter limits to economic migration, while National is the other way round. I would not be surprised if the fact that New Zealand is also one of the few places that allows all foreign nationals with permanent residence full voting rights, and the Chinese vote being a very Important Constituency in favour of the Nationals, have something to do with that.

I also wonder whether this is why not just Immigration, but also Opinions on China are inverse in New Zealand, as opposed to places like Canada, Aus, or the US. I think Labour in NZ tends to be a little bit more critical towards China, banning foreign donations and Huawei (which the national party leader criticized), while National (or at least Bridges himself) has been very, very pro-china and they also have an MP (Jian Yang) who worked with Chinese Spies. While Chinese-origin Voters are also an Important voting bloc for the Centre-right in Canada and Australia, the Chinese Community in NZ tends to be more pro-PRC than their Counterparts in US, Canada and Aus.

There is a strain of right wing opinion that has been *very* pro-China in recent years, it has waned in importance as economic and political nationalism has grown in influence though. And this pandemic is likely to leave it very much a minority current there.

[CumbrianLefty]

Internal poll klaxon - but still, that is pretty impressive.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, by that time politics is likely to be returning to "normal" along with other aspects of life and the "blame game" will doubtless be underway. Though of course that also means that governments that have genuinely handled things well will have less to be blamed for.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well yeah, that's true of most governments during this crisis.

And tbh I expect Ardern will be pretty cautious regardless.

[CumbrianLefty]

To be honest with the election expected for September a lot can change. I certainly expect much of this polling lead to disappear: for some reason it reminds me of the huge leads Theresa May had over Corbyn at one point.

Why? There's very little comparison between May and Ardern. The latter is a super effective and popular leader... things Theresa May was never really known for.

Arguably another example of how history gets rewritten - just before her fateful decision to call a snap election, May had some of the best approval ratings recorded by any PM in recent years.

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, to put it in context these are the sort of poll numbers UK Labour were getting in the mid-1990s *when they were still in opposition*. Even taking the current crisis boosting most incumbent governments into account, Ardern has clearly managed to win over most centrist and even some right inclined voters whilst keeping the overwhelming bulk of the left happy. Always an impressive feat.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour are widely seen to have handled this crisis well, though. Unless they majorly bungle a second wave or similar, you would think that would still count for something come polling day.

[CumbrianLefty]

Muller surge!

[CumbrianLefty]

That is a bit of a contrast with the previous poll, which showed no significant National Party gains.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Colmar Brunton poll results for the cannabis referendum were just released. Sadly, legalisation is narrowly down right now. It is 49% No, 40% Yes and 11% Don't Know.

Great shame if that fails.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think that its clear NP never expected to lose power at the last GE, and haven't taken it terribly well.

[CumbrianLefty]

It does appear Muller's resignation is related to mental health issues, and that he had a breakdown.

Well that is never nice to hear - I hope he gets better soon.

[CumbrianLefty]

The speed with which the Nationals have descended from NZ's "natural" (and indeed seemingly almost unassailable) party of government to little more than a rabble, is genuinely astonishing.

[CumbrianLefty]

So what would replace the National Party if they completely collapse. I doubt that Labour would take all the gains. NZ First? ACT?

I doubt that will happen, even now.

There is about 25% who would vote NP with the proverbial dog with a rosette as its leader.

(same with the GOP, British Tories etc etc)

[CumbrianLefty]

Blimmin heck, did they collectively walk under a ladder or something?

[CumbrianLefty]

Collins could end up in a similar situation to Mike Moore in 1990.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though away from National's troubles just for the moment, Labour's immigration minister has been axed by the PM after admitting a year long relationship with a staff member may have been an "abuse of power". As with the last government departure, swift action by Ardern might limit the damage.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though away from National's troubles just for the moment, Labour's immigration minister has been axed by the PM after admitting a year long relationship with a staff member may have been an "abuse of power". As with the last government departure, swift action by Ardern might limit the damage.

From an objective nonpartisan perspective, Ardern sounds like she’s handling the situation exactly how someone should: take responsibility and hold folks accountable. What’s a better way to handle it?

To take her part of responsibility and resign.

Red hot take, sir.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah, this might be a one-off extreme low poll, & National could bounce back (a bit). Anything could happen on Election Day. A sudden economic "oh f**k!" event (on top of the current sh*tty economy), a 2nd wave, more scandals, etc. could easily see Labour crash down to the 40s-zone.

One thing's for certain: this is gonna get the political reporting, attack pieces, opinion section (aka attack pieces) flowing. Winston's probably gonna take it to 11 & throw everything that he can at the polling.

Its nearly August, time for any major polling turnaround is fast running out now.

[CumbrianLefty]

Things will invariably tighten.  National Party has a strong base so I think odds are they get over 35% and my guess is they probably get in upper 30s.  Most elections National gets over 40% so just getting under 40% let alone under 30% is a bad showing.  Main question is does Labour get a majority on its own or have to rely on Greens.  Yes stranger things can happen but the gap is big enough that National winning outright seems unlikely.  Although if a swing similar to 2017 happened (note National had a 20 point lead at this point), it would be a lot closer.

Of course one must expect *some* National recovery from their present all-time lows, but as things stand getting to the upper 30s is far from "inevitable" I would say.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, not unlike Mike Moore being able to stay on as Labour leader after the 1990 drubbing.

Btw, the 1989-90 period is the previous time when the polls have been as lopsided as now (though in the opposite direction) the difference, of course, being that the trailing party was then in government.

[CumbrianLefty]

There has also been a seeming outlier poll putting Labour "only" about 10 points ahead?