2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October) (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)  (Read 41691 times)
skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« on: August 07, 2020, 07:34:57 AM »

Roy Morgan numbers for July are out. Slight dips in vote shares for Labour, National, and the Greens; ACT continues their rise; Labour still able to govern alone.

- LAB: 53.5% (-1%)
- NAT: 26.5% (-0.5%)
- GRN: 8% (-1%)
- NZ First: 1.5% (-)
- ACT: 6.5% (+1.5%)
- TOP: 1.5% (-)
- Maori: 0.5% (-0.5%)

Translated into seats, Parliament would look like this:

- Labour: 68
- National: 34
- Green: 10
- ACT: 8
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2020, 12:38:20 AM »

A private corporate poll from UMR (before Labour's recent tax announcement) has Labour on 53%. I know UMR does Labour's internal polling, but the way the Stuff article is worded makes it seem that this isn't a Labour internal.


Plugging the numbers into the Electoral Commission's MMP calculator gives me the following numbers:

- LAB: 72
- NAT: 40
- ACT: 8
- GRN: 0
- NZF: 0
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2020, 05:55:32 PM »

Apparently, Reid Research conducted a poll of Auckland Central (the inner city Auckland seat being vacated by National's Nikki Kaye at this election):

- Helen White (Labour): 42.3%
- Emma Mellow (National): 26.6%
- Chloe Swarbrick (Green): 24.2%
- Undecided: 20.7%
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2020, 01:37:46 AM »
« Edited: September 28, 2020, 01:45:58 AM by skbl17 »

There's a new 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll (changes compared to the previous Colmar Brunton poll):

- LAB: 47% (-1%)
- NAT: 33% (+2%)
- ACT: 8% (+1%)
- GRN: 7% (+1%)
- NZF: 1% (-1%)
- New Conservative: 1% (-1%)
- TOP: 1%
- Māori: 1%
- Advance NZ: 1%
- Undecided/refused to answer: 11% (-3%)

Translated to seats:
- LAB: 59
- NAT: 43
- ACT: 10
- GRN: 8

Notably, this is the first poll taken since March to show Labour falling short of winning a majority of seats. There's still a solid chance of Labour forming a majority government when all is said and done, but I'm starting to get 2014 vibes from this election, when National was in a majority-winning position for a while but ultimately came up one seat short of a majority government.
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2020, 04:26:08 PM »

Apparently, Reid Research conducted a poll of Auckland Central (the inner city Auckland seat being vacated by National's Nikki Kaye at this election):

- Helen White (Labour): 42.3%
- Emma Mellow (National): 26.6%
- Chloe Swarbrick (Green): 24.2%
- Undecided: 20.7%

Colmar Brunton just polled Auckland Central, and things look tighter compared to the Reid Research poll:

- Helen White (Labour): 35%
- Emma Mellow (National): 30%
- Chloe Swarbrick (Green): 26%
- Felix Poole (ACT): 4%
- Vernon Tava (Sustainable NZ): 2%
- Others: 2%
- Undecided: 9%

Party vote in the electorate (changes with last election):

- Labour: 47% (+9%)
- National: 28% (-11%)
- Green: 13% (-)
- ACT: 6% (+5%)
- TOP: 2.2% (-0.94%)
- NZ First: 1.7% (-1.1%)
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2020, 06:15:12 AM »

New Colmar Brunton poll! Not much has changed versus the last poll, though:

- Labour: 47% (no change)
- National: 32% (-1)
- ACT: 8% (no change)
- Green: 6% (-1)
- NZ First: 2% (+1)
- TOP: 2% (+1)
- New Conservative: 1% (no change)
- Advance NZ: 1% (no change)

There was some movement on the preferred PM metric, with Jacinda now on 50% (down 4%,) but no gains for other party leaders.

Translated to seats:

- Labour: 60
- National: 41
- ACT: 11
- Greens: 8
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2020, 10:15:00 AM »

New UMR poll. UMR is Labour's internal pollster, but this doesn't appear to be an internal poll for the party.

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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2020, 08:27:45 AM »

Also have a new Roy Morgan poll (changes compared to their last poll in August):

- Labour: 47.5% (-0.5%)
- National: 28.5% (-)
- Greens: 9.5% (-2%)
- ACT: 7% (+1%)
- NZF: 2.5% (-)
- TOP: 1.5% (+0.5%)
- Maori: 0.5% (-)
- Others: 3% (+1%)

In terms of seats, Labour just reaches the majority threshold of 61 seats:

- Labour: 61
- National: 38
- Greens: 12
- ACT: 9
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2020, 01:02:18 AM »

Live streams:

- TVNZ: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpSZj4qImNE
- RNZ: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1aWsKhuhzY
- Newshub: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQo3XMpwwzA

Official results:

- Electoral Commission: https://electionresults.govt.nz/
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2020, 01:16:42 AM »

2.5% counted: Labour on 49.8%; they're hovering around 50%. Still early days, though.

Swarbrick (GRN) currently leading in Auckland Central by ~100 votes. 6% of votes counted.

Maori Party candidate Rawiri Waititi ahead in Waiariki by 68 votes. 3% of votes counted.
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2020, 01:24:30 AM »

5.3% counted: Labour on 50.6%. Auckland Central is still a narrow Swarbrick lead (173 vote margin).

Labour now ahead in all Maori electorates.
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2020, 01:35:00 AM »

9.2% counted: Labour on 50.0%. Helen White (Labour) ahead in Auckland Central by 56 votes. Waiariki is bouncing back and forth between the Maori Party and Labour.
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2020, 02:18:16 AM »

Swarbrick is now ahead by 419 votes in Auckland Central. 36% counted.

A quarter of the total votes (and 56% of the advance votes) have been counted, by the way. I bring up the advance vote because the party vote looks to have stabilized with Labour on 50.4-50.5% and 64-66 seats. Personally, I think a Labour majority is quite likely.

To more knowledgeable Kiwi posters, are there historically any notable shifts once the advance votes are done and all that's left are on-the-day and special votes? I know special votes tend to favor left-of-center parties, but what about on-the-day votes?
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2020, 03:16:33 AM »

Labour's seat count is hovering at 65-66, but their party vote has inched back to 49.9%. 46% counted (77% of advance votes counted).

Swarbrick's lead in Auckland Central hasn't changed much in the last hour - 437 votes. 64% counted.

Waiariki remains tight - Tamaki Coffey (Labour) is ahead by 10 votes.
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2020, 03:39:25 AM »

Yeah, it looks like the last few batches dropped have been more right-leaning. No idea whether that trend will continue throughout the night, though.

I think the drop in the Labour vote is from on-the-day votes being counted. Labour's hovering at 50.7-50.8% of the advance vote, and that hasn't changed in over an hour.

Maori Party back ahead in Waiariki - by 11 votes.
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2020, 03:43:50 AM »

Labour slipping further below the symbolic 50% threshold. I'd be kinda disappointed if they don't cross it, at this point.


I think the drop in the Labour vote is from on-the-day votes being counted. Labour's hovering at 50.7-50.8% of the advance vote, and that hasn't changed in over an hour.

Is there a place where we can see the breakdown between election-day vs advance vote?

I'm using the Electoral Commission website and refreshing it every couple of minutes. They have separate pages for advance votes and the overall results.

Labour down to 49.3% now.
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2020, 03:58:28 AM »

We have our first electorate with full provisional results, as Rangitata is a Labour gain from National.

As for Auckland Central, Chloe Swarbrick is now ahead by 411 votes, and the count there is getting close to the end. 87% counted.
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2020, 04:12:15 AM »

Judith Collins has conceded defeat.

Labour is now down to 49% of the party vote with 76.6% counted. 85.5% of advance votes have been counted. Nelson is officially the second Labour gain from National.

Also, a couple of notes on the electorates:

- I'm 98% confident Chloe Swarbrick has won in Auckland Central. Her lead is holding steady at 400, and we're now up to 92% counted.

- It's increasingly likely the Maori Party will win the electorate of Waiariki. It's not a certain Maori Party gain, but Rawiri Waititi is leading by 142 votes with 82% counted.
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2020, 04:44:59 AM »
« Edited: October 17, 2020, 04:53:46 AM by skbl17 »

Not 100% counted yet, but barring some insanely dramatic shift in the remaining votes, I'm 99.9% confident Chloe Swarbrick has won Auckland Central (97.6% counted, lead of 490,) and Waiariki has almost certainly been won by Rawiri Waititi (91.3% counted, lead of 294).

The Maori Party is back, and the Greens have their first electorate seat since they held Coromandel at the turn of the millennium.
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2020, 05:48:55 AM »

WOW
The results look awesome. Labour majority!
Also I wouldn't have expected the Māori Party to make a comeback.

By the way, how are the referenda going?

No results for the referenda will be available until October 30.
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2020, 03:29:32 AM »
« Edited: October 18, 2020, 03:34:02 AM by skbl17 »

The Electoral Commission published a press release detailing the election night results (including advance and informal votes,) as well as estimates on the number of special votes yet to be counted.

There are an estimated 400,000 special votes to be counted over the next two weeks, including 66,000 overseas and dictation votes.

As for turnout, the Commission pegs turnout at 82.5% of those enrolled prior to election day compared to 79.8% in 2017.
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #21 on: October 25, 2020, 08:23:49 PM »

Preliminary referendum results will be available October 30, while official results for both the general election and referendums will be available November 6.
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #22 on: October 28, 2020, 02:17:10 PM »

Just as a heads up, preliminary referendum results will be available at 2pm NZT on Friday.

The results website will also be updated with the referendum numbers, but will not include special votes. Final election and referendum results, including special votes, will be available on November 6.
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #23 on: October 29, 2020, 08:01:38 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2020, 08:07:40 PM by skbl17 »

Preliminary referendum results:

CANNABIS
- Yes: 1,114,485 (46.1%)
- No: 1,281,818 (53.1%)

There were 19,244 informal votes, or 0.8% of the total.

END OF LIFE CHOICE BILL
- Yes: 1,574,645 (65.2%)
- No: 815,829 (33.8%)

There were 25,073 informal votes, or 1% of the total.

These numbers do not include special votes; those will be included with the official declaration of results on November 6.

(Full media release from the Electoral Commission)
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skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

« Reply #24 on: October 29, 2020, 08:03:52 PM »

I love how we were all waiting for the results at the same time lol.
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