2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[Tender Branson]

Ardern's support was always massively overblown ...

As if Conservatives suddenly decided to vote Labour in droves ...

[Tender Branson]

I’m most interested in turnout (also in the BC election).

It may give us further clues about the US turnout.

On the other hand, NZ and BC are not impacted as much by the virus ...

[Tender Branson]

Ca. 2 million NZers voted early until yesterday:



That is by 750.000 more than in 2017.

For turnout to reach a comparable 80% from 2017 again, another 800.000 would have needed to vote today.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction is:

47.9% LAB
33.3% NAT
  6.9% ACT
  5.6% GRN
  2.9% NZF
  3.4% Others

Seats:

62/120 - LAB
42/120 - NAT
  9/120 - ACT
  7/120 - GRN

Turnout: 81.4% (+1.6)

[Tender Branson]

I waited until today to cast my vote, some people like to do it the traditional way. Hopefully enough so turnout is higher than it has been recently.

I think there's a good chance, but who knows ?

When people do not expect a close race, with LAB being so far ahead, many might simply do their duty and vote early but others might then stay home on election day (see Vienna last weekend).

On the other hand, voters might outfit Jacinda with a fat mandate today.

[Tender Branson]

The polls have now closed.

Here's a live stream + live thread:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300131429/election-night-2020-live-countdown-to-first-results

[Tender Branson]

Turnout looks 75%-ish when all is counted, or 2.6 million votes out of 3.49 million enrolled.

That would be a drop of 5% compared to 2017, but still pretty good.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout looks 75%-ish when all is counted, or 2.6 million votes out of 3.49 million enrolled.

That would be a drop of 5% compared to 2017, but still pretty good.

Turnout might also end up lower than 75%, because of this:

This year, for the first time, people can enroll or update their address details on election day before they vote at any voting place, she said.

Which means, because a lot of young people were not enrolled, they did so today ahead of voting, which pushes enrollment up to 3.6 million.

That would lower turnout to around 72-73% ...

A lot of young NZers are not registered to vote:

https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/enrolment-statistics/enrolment-by-general-electorate/

[Tender Branson]

If all (theoretically) eligible 3.8 million NZers above 18 were also enrolled to vote, and 2.6 million voted today, turnout would be only 68%.

There’s a gap of ca. 300.000 people who’d be eligible to vote, but who are not registered (mostly young people).

[Tender Branson]

Here are my 3 sets of turnout estimates:

3.49 million enrolled (without same-day enrollment): 74.5%

3.60 million enrolled (includes same-day enrollment): 72%

3.80 million (all eligible, includes those not enrolled): 68%

That’s based on 2.6 million votes cast in total.

The 2017 number (79.8%) is comparable to the 74.5% number.

[Tender Branson]

This is the 2nd major election in a row now in which we have seen a HUGE early vote, but a weak Election Day vote, resulting in lower turnout overall compared to the previous election.

USA, take note.

Anyway, congrats to Jacinda on achieving an absolute majority !

[Tender Branson]

Does anyone know when the final results and turnout numbers will be released ?

I assume that same day registration numbers will have to be added to the pre-election-day enrollment numbers first to calculate it ...

The referendum results are not out for another 2 weeks, so I guess official turnout numbers also won’t be released for a while.

[Tender Branson]

Does anyone know when the final results and turnout numbers will be released ?

I assume that same day registration numbers will have to be added to the pre-election-day enrollment numbers first to calculate it ...

The referendum results are not out for another 2 weeks, so I guess official turnout numbers also won’t be released for a while.

NZ also seems to have a system of „special votes“ being added to the current total in the next 3 weeks or so.

Not sure how many of them are out there, but I guess still hundreds of thousands, even though the current count says 99% in (~ 2.4 million votes).

That would put total votes cast somewhere between 2.6 and 2.9 million.

With the same-day-registration in place for the first time this year, I’d assume 3.6 million registered voters when final results are out.

Turnout range: 72-80% - with 76% most likely (~ 2.74 million votes).

That would mean ca. 350.000 additional „special votes“ being added in the next weeks.

The Electoral Commission aims to have the official results published on Friday 6 November. Detailed information to be presented to the House of Representatives (E9), including allocation of list seats, voting place information and special vote statistics, is expected to be available by Friday 6 November.

[Tender Branson]

Estrella,

do you have any news about how many „special votes“ are remaining out there ?

Or how many people additionally enrolled to vote only yesterday (your time) ?

[Tender Branson]

The pre-election data indicated that the advance vote was nearly 2 million, but the election site with 100% counted has just 1,689,018. Where are the remaining 300k? Are those the fabled "special votes" that will be counted in two weeks? Were they rejected ballots? Or is there some other reason for the discrepancy?

A lot of people may have advance voted outside of their electorate, & their votes would be counted as special votes.

Ah, I see. So we can expect around 300k of those then.

Yes, for 2.7 million in total.

With the expansion of the voter roll to 3.6 million due to Election Day registration, 75% have voted (-5% compared to 2017).

[Tender Branson]

The Electoral Commission published a press release detailing the election night results (including advance and informal votes,) as well as estimates on the number of special votes yet to be counted.

There are an estimated 400,000 special votes to be counted over the next two weeks, including 66,000 overseas and dictation votes.

As for turnout, the Commission pegs turnout at 82.5% of those enrolled prior to election day compared to 79.8% in 2017.

Interesting !

The press release actually says that an estimated 480.000 special votes are left.

They estimate total turnout at 2.877.000 (including invalid votes).

The special votes consist of 286.000 uncounted early votes and 66.000 overseas votes.

I assume the remaining 128.000 votes are election-day registrants (this is not mentioned in the release). Election-day registration was possible for the 1st time ever in this election.

But they say that

Enrolment applications are still being processed. By 6pm on Friday 16 October, 3,487,654 people were enrolled, or 92.5% of eligible voters.

If we add the 128.000 presumably election-day registrants to the 3.488 million enrolled on Friday, we have a voter roll of 3.616 million eligible.

Turnout would then not be 82.5% as the release says, but 79.6% - similar to the 79.8% in 2017.

[Tender Branson]

Have any of the electorate seats flipped now that the full results have been released?

There are still up to 480.000 "special votes" left.

Theoretically, those votes could still lead to Cannabis winning, but those votes would need to be so lopsided (65-70% in favour of legalisation) that it is extremely unlikely.

[Tender Branson]

Final turnout was 82.2% of those registered to vote and 76.5% of all eligible over 18.