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October 20, 2020, 11:46:55 AM
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  2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)
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Author Topic: 2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)  (Read 22094 times)
Virginia Yellow Dog
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« Reply #450 on: October 17, 2020, 05:24:23 PM »

Perhaps the only party that did worse than National was NZ First. Iím thinking this might be the end of WINstonís long career in parliament. Heís 75 and will be 78 at the next election. I donít think that NZ First will survive either; it always was something of a personality cult around WINston.

Is it safe to assume that the restrictionist policies that the Labour-NZ First alliance adopted on immigration during Ardern's first term will be loosened, now that NZ First is on the ropes?  Presumably it was Winston Peters who pushed for them in the first place, and Ardern merely went along to preserve Labour's then-tenuous hold on power.  
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #451 on: October 17, 2020, 05:29:31 PM »

Amazingly, a fourth party had an excellent night as well. I donít think anyone predicted that the Māori Party would gain a seat. I myself had guessed that they wouldnít and would in fact be heading the way of Mana before too long. Instead, they gained an electorate despite a Labour landslide. I think itís even more shocking than Swarbrick winning Auckland Central. Last time Labour swept through Maori electorates with over 10% less of the party vote and yet, somehow the Māori Party pulled it off.

Edit: I guess you could say that I thought the Māori Party was dead in the foreshore and seabed water.

I don't think you can say that its that suprising - the Maori electorates have a lot of history of shifting against the national tide and behaving in strange ways and the campaigns in them are always very local so candidates matter a massive amount.  Labour dominated the Party vote in them (actually very similar to the national swing in them) so its not an anti-Labour thing in this case: I think you had a few strong candidates plus since Labour put their Maori seat candidates on the list this time (which they mostly didn't do last time) the Maori Party candidates were able to argue that a vote for them wasn't a vote against the incumbent MPs who were almost guaranteed to be re-elected on the list unless the polls were very wrong: but instead a way of guaranteeing additional Maori representation in Parliament and that has a very strong appeal.  I don't think anyone was expecting it but its not something you could have ruled out going into the campaign: they are the most volatile electorates.
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Velasco
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« Reply #452 on: October 17, 2020, 07:22:50 PM »

The recent bad results of rightwing populists are promising...
I have bad news for you about ACT...

I guess you are right. These guys are patriots who love pay taxes...
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President Pericles
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« Reply #453 on: October 17, 2020, 07:26:36 PM »
« Edited: October 17, 2020, 08:05:12 PM by President Pericles »

This landslide really is an incredible result, still it's very well-deserved. Labour will need to deliver more on policy in its second term, but they certainly deserved this opportunity. It looks like Jacinda would rather govern alone than with the Greens, maybe the Greens are given a small ministerial portfolio rather than being turfed out of government entirely. This victory is truly historic, I believe it is Labour's highest share of the vote since 1938 and the second-highest they ever recorded. I think it's the second-highest number of MPs any party has ever had in New Zealand, though it doesn't look like Labour can match or beat National's 67 MPs in 1990. Hopefully with the special votes Labour gets an outright majority of the vote, so their majority isn't just a product of minor parties falling below the 5% threshold. A few National electorates are very close, so those candidates will be worried, in particular National's health spokesperson Dr Shane Reti who is only leading by 162 votes. This is of course the first majority government under MMP, and so it is uncertain how that dynamic will play out. Labour's landslide appears to have swept across the entire country-winning the party vote in 68/72 electorates. The changeover in electorates is greater than I expected. There don't appear to be any big rural or suburban trends, though I'll have a detailed look through the results and other analysis and see if any interesting correlations emerge.

The National Party has of course had a disastrous result. It's hard to trace a single event as being the cause of it, it was a case of death by a thousand cuts. Or as Gerry Brownlee put it, National had an "absolute shocker year". National could never have won the election against Jacinda Ardern this year (post-Covid I mean, we'll never know whether Simon Bridges could have won in a September election where Covid didn't happen). Judith Collins herself isn't the villain of the story from National's perspective, her approval ratings were much better than Bridges' and she seemed better at being Opposition Leader than Muller. So maybe Bridges or Muller would have lost by even more. However, the disunity was incredibly costly. In retrospect, the 'original sin' was electing Simon Bridges as National Party leader in 2018, despite the decent party vote numbers he was very disliked by the public and so once the polls turned the cycle of disunity was unleashed. Maybe they should have elected someone like Amy Adams or Steven Joyce instead (I actually kind of agree with Mike Hosking who has consistently thought they should have elected Joyce).

National shouldn't rush into another leadership contest, and they don't have anyone obviously better to take over from Collins. They need a prolonged period of reflection first. National also now has a much harder job to win back power in 2023. Big swings are of course possible, 2017 comes to mind as an example of a party winning government after having lost in a landslide 3 years earlier (though Labour was the second-largest party in 2017, it's hard for National to win from that position). A much greater share of National's caucus is white men, and it is a more conservative caucus (particularly on social issues). So the image they are presenting to the country could be less appealing. I remember when National was supposed to be the monster opposition, they now have 3 years to regret blowing that opportunity and making the challenge so much harder.

It looks like there was a notable polling error. Maybe that was a late swing of tactical voters to Labour from National supporters who preferred a Labour majority to a Labour-Green government, maybe the polls underestimated how much of Labour's lead was already banked (and so there was a slight swing against Labour at the end but too late to matter), or maybe the pollsters were always getting the composition of the electorate slightly wrong.

This leads onto what the referendum results might be. End of Life Choice passing seems virtually inevitable, given the size of its lead. The seemingly high turnout and the left's great result imply that the electorate may have been quite left-wing and lots of young voters turned out. Maybe that's enough to get Yes over the line for cannabis. Most likely it still fails, perhaps by a narrow margin, those soft National voters that swung to Labour this time don't seem to like the idea of legal weed.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #454 on: October 17, 2020, 09:36:57 PM »

I see that National won the party vote in Epsom, but what were the other three that they won in?
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President Pericles
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« Reply #455 on: October 17, 2020, 09:43:00 PM »

I see that National won the party vote in Epsom, but what were the other three that they won in?

Tamaki (38.4%-36.9%), Taranaki-King Country (37.5%-36.5%), and Waikato (38.6%-38.5%). It's possible some of those are overturned on the special votes, the 38 vote margin in Waikato especially is very vulnerable (it's a 5,387 National majority on the candidate vote though). Epsom is 39.9%-33.9% on the party vote, that's too big of a margin so sadly it won't be a clean sweep for Labour.
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oddfellowslocal151
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« Reply #456 on: October 17, 2020, 10:30:22 PM »

Interesting howís thereís no party running to the left of the greens, Marxism isnít fanciful in NZ?

Bit of an effortpost here, and please correct me if I'm wrong cause I am not at all an expert here.

The Left in NZ, as is the case in the UK and elsewhere, had most of its strength traditionally in trade unions and social movements. By the end of the 80s, a lot of these forces had really been decimated. Especially with regards to the labor movement, the Employee Contracts Act of 1990 really put the hammer down on unions for a while. The CTU, ironically headed by a member of the Socialist Unity Party, was also more small-c conservative and preoccupied in salvaging what it had as opposed to doing a lot of new organizing. In the meantime, the fact that it was the Labour Party who carried out much of the shift to Neoliberalism gave a lot of space to the NewLabour Party and later the Alliance. This, plus the advent of MMP in 1993, meant that there was a lot of space and hope for the Left in electoral politics that just didn't exist elsewhere at the time. After Helen Clark won and repealed the worst parts of the ECA, the labor movement had some life again, and participation in government led to the usual splits and disagreements. Case in point, the Unite union that organizes fast food and hotel workers in NZ was started by a side in the Alliance split. So, there's a lot more openings in the labor movement and elsewhere these days, which takes energy away from a big Left electoral effort.

There will be lefties in the parliament this time, new Greens MPs Kerekere, Tuiono, and Menendez for instance. Menendez is a good example of the shift back to social movements: he's the former head of Auckland Action Against Poverty.
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PSOL
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« Reply #457 on: October 18, 2020, 12:47:13 AM »
« Edited: October 18, 2020, 02:29:54 PM by PSOL »

I’m calling it now that the National Party will either adopt a lot of the positions of the conspiracy theorist parties or stagnate in influence and support.
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skbl17
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« Reply #458 on: October 18, 2020, 03:29:32 AM »
« Edited: October 18, 2020, 03:34:02 AM by skbl17 »

The Electoral Commission published a press release detailing the election night results (including advance and informal votes,) as well as estimates on the number of special votes yet to be counted.

There are an estimated 400,000 special votes to be counted over the next two weeks, including 66,000 overseas and dictation votes.

As for turnout, the Commission pegs turnout at 82.5% of those enrolled prior to election day compared to 79.8% in 2017.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #459 on: October 18, 2020, 04:08:17 AM »

I made this graph based on the preliminary results, to see what the correlation there was between education levels and the swing from National to Labour.

There is no statistically significant correlation. Labour didn't get an extra boost with lower-educated or higher-educated voters, it was a pretty uniform landslide. The graph does change slightly if the outlier on the bottom left (Mangere) is removed, but not by much.

Maybe then, there was a very small correlation, so that Labour gained slightly more with lower-educated voters. It is hard to tell for sure from this.

Unfortunately, I don't have data for all the general electorates on this, I left out some of the new ones or ones with big boundary changes. I also left out the Maori electorates, because the dynamic is different there.

It may be that whiter electorates and those with a lower Labour party vote in 2017 swung more to Labour, but I haven't yet run the numbers on those. Anyway, here are the swing percentages I got (nationwide, it was a 15.0% National-Labour swing)-
Auckland Central-12.4%
Banks Peninsula-N/A   
Bay of Plenty-18.8%
Botany-19.4%
Christchurch Central-15.6%
Christchurch East-15.5%
Coromandel-13.3%
Dunedin-N/A   
East Coast-14.3%
East Coast Bays-20.0%
Epsom-14.1%
Hamilton East-15.8%
Hamilton West-17.2%
Hutt South-16.4%
Ilam-17.5%
Invercargill-14.9%
Kaikoura-18.5%
Kaipara ki Mahurangi-17.3%
Kelston-13.2%
Mana-14.7%
Mangere-4.8%
Manurewa-13.6%
Maungakiekie-N/A   
Mt Albert-9.8%
Mt Roskill-13.8%
Napier-14.9%
Nelson-19.9%
New Lynn-14.5%
New Plymouth-15.7%
North Shore-18.5%
Northcote-17.7%
Northland-15.3%
Ohariu-18.8%
Otaki-16.9%
Pakuranga-18.8%
Palmerston North-15.2%
Panmure-Otahuhu-N/A   
Papakura-9.6%
Port Waikato-N/A   
Rangitata-17.9%
Rangitikei-17.8%
Remutaka-17.0%
Rongotai-11.0%
Rotorua-16.1%
Selwyn-19.7%
Southland-18.4%
Taieri-N/A   
Takanini-N/A   
Tamaki-17.9%
Taranaki-King Country-16.6%
Taupo-17.5%
Tauranga-16.7%
Te Atatu-15.2%
Tukituki-15.7%
Upper Harbour-18.2%
Waikato-17.2%
Waimakariri-21.1%
Wairarapa-17.1%
Waitaki-18%
Wellington Central-9.9%
West-Coast Tasman-11.8%
Whanganui-16.4%
Whangaparaoa-N/A
Whangarei-16.5%
Wigram-16.3%
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #460 on: October 18, 2020, 10:04:48 AM »

In many ways, a victory for nothing. Probably the least consequential government since Shipley. And yet a landslide for a Jacinda-centric campaign.

Blimmin heck pal, where's the gif of that young boy blowing all those birthday candles out?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #461 on: October 18, 2020, 10:36:05 AM »

The Electoral Commission published a press release detailing the election night results (including advance and informal votes,) as well as estimates on the number of special votes yet to be counted.

There are an estimated 400,000 special votes to be counted over the next two weeks, including 66,000 overseas and dictation votes.

As for turnout, the Commission pegs turnout at 82.5% of those enrolled prior to election day compared to 79.8% in 2017.

Interesting !

The press release actually says that an estimated 480.000 special votes are left.

They estimate total turnout at 2.877.000 (including invalid votes).

The special votes consist of 286.000 uncounted early votes and 66.000 overseas votes.

I assume the remaining 128.000 votes are election-day registrants (this is not mentioned in the release). Election-day registration was possible for the 1st time ever in this election.

But they say that

Quote
Enrolment applications are still being processed. By 6pm on Friday 16 October, 3,487,654 people were enrolled, or 92.5% of eligible voters.

If we add the 128.000 presumably election-day registrants to the 3.488 million enrolled on Friday, we have a voter roll of 3.616 million eligible.

Turnout would then not be 82.5% as the release says, but 79.6% - similar to the 79.8% in 2017.
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bigic
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« Reply #462 on: October 18, 2020, 11:23:35 AM »

Iím calling it now that the National Party will either adopt a lot of the positions or the conspiracy theorist parties or stagnate in influence and support.
Lol
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #463 on: October 18, 2020, 04:10:45 PM »

Not sure if this is usually the case, but I thought it was interesting that the South Island was to the left of the North Island.

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President Pericles
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« Reply #464 on: October 19, 2020, 02:45:06 PM »

National will be holding its first caucus meeting after the defeat, with 20 fewer MPs (while they lost 21 from the 2017 result, Jami-Lee Ross had already been expelled from the party in 2018). They have clearly learned nothing, MPs are already leaking.

Quote
National MPs have told Newshub:

"We're going into a tough caucus and it will be a very full and frank post-mortem."
Another says it is "highly, highly unlikely she'll [Judith Collins] lead us into 2023."

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/10/nz-election-2020-national-mps-already-leaking-predicting-leadership-coup-after-devastating-defeat.html

There are rumours that Christopher Luxon is the planned replacement, and fury at liberal MPs Chris Bishop and Nicola Willis who orchestrated the Muller coup and were both returned to parliament.

Judith Collins at least has the right idea, saying she'll deliver a stern warning to caucus that "No party can win until it stops looking at itself." She has also promised a thorough review of the campaign and the causes of National's defeat.

A minor point related to that is National's pollster David Farrar said that Labour got 51% of the advance vote and 44% of the Election Day vote, and National got 26% and 30% (not sure if that adds up to National getting 26.8% of the vote, even pre-specials). That suggests that National's campaign blunders in the last week weren't important. There might not have been an anti-Green tactical vote for Labour, though people thought Labour was  winning for a long time so maybe they just didn't wait for the final polls to make up their minds. The polling may have either been consistently wrong, or underestimated the advance vote somehow.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #465 on: October 19, 2020, 09:41:58 PM »

LMAO, AM Show Host Duncan Garner is going vegan for a year. This is because he promised a few months ago he was so confident Labour would not win a majority that he promised to go vegan if they did. And well... At least he kept his word.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/10/duncan-garner-i-m-going-vegan-and-it-s-a-terrifying-ordeal.html

In actual news, Gerry Brownlee is staying on as an MP, but other National MPs may still resign. National's official line is that they're waiting for the review rather than "navel-gazing", which I guess is sensible. Judith Collins will announce her frontbench only after Labour's new cabinet is formed, and there is no certainty yet about whether Brownlee will stay on as Deputy Leader or any other positions in it (such as whether National's finance spokesperson Paul Goldsmith will be fired over his budget hole blunder).
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