2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[Velasco]

Extraordinary results!

In a cursory glance at the electorate map I see that, despite the sound Labour victory, the NZ Nationals resist in rural areas, Tauranga and some affluent Auckland suburbs. The ACT retains Epsom and I'm pleasantly surprised because the Greens candidate Chloe Swarbrick snatched Auckland Central away from the Nationals


The recent bad results of rightwing populists are promising...

[Roblox]

Great result for Labour! Any real surprise flips?

[Estrella]

An interesting statistic about electorate results - third place finishers: Green 46, ACT 13, NZ First 4, National 2 (Auckland Central and Epsom), New Conservative 2 (New Lynn and Waimakariri), Opportunities 1 (Ōhāriu), Heartland* 1 (Port Waikato), Legalise Cannabis 1 (Te Tai Tokerau) and, most hilariously, Advance NZ** 2 (Te Tai Hauāuru and Hauraki-Waikato).

* climate change denying farmers

** Advance NZ is a "cEnTRiSt aNtI coRRupTiOn" party that was started by two people, Jami Lee-Ross and Billy Te Kahika. For those unfamiliar with him, Ross is a former National MP and Senior Whip who accused Simon Bridges of taking $100k in illegal donations, was subsequently accused of sexual harassment and bullying by several women, went "you can't fire me, I quit!", the party went "you can't quit, we fire you!" and later was himself prosecuted in a case involving another $100k in illegal donations. As for Billy, well...

William Desmond Te Kahika Junior (born 18 July 1972) is a New Zealand conspiracy theorist, blues musician, guitarist, politician and businessman who lives in Whangārei. He is the son of Māori musician, guitarist, vocalist, and songwriter Billy TK. During the 2020 New Zealand general election, TK Jr. attracted media coverage both as the leader of the fringe New Zealand Public Party (NZPP) and for his belief in conspiracies. Both Te Kahika Jr and the NZPP have opposed the New Zealand Government's lockdown restrictions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

[Tender Branson]

Estrella,

do you have any news about how many „special votes“ are remaining out there ?

Or how many people additionally enrolled to vote only yesterday (your time) ?

[Hnv1]

Interesting how’s there’s no party running to the left of the greens, Marxism isn’t fanciful in NZ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Impressive. Some interesting electorate results - Rangitata (the largest town of which is Timaru) flipping is interesting, because that's real Old Labour (so to speak) territory.

Is that the Maori win?

No, it's the Labour gain between Christchurch and Dunedin. Back under the old electoral system, when it had a constituency all to itself, Timaru was notable for swinging hard against first Rogernomics (lost for the first time since the 1920s in a by-election in 1985 and not regained at the 1987 election) and then the doubling-down of this agenda by the Nationals in the 90s (one of Labour's gains in 1993). The last time it has had Labour representation until now was when it was part of the Aoraki constituency, which was lost heavily by a scandal-plagued incumbent in 2005. As Rangitata it had given the Nationals some very large majorities during the Key era.

[Estrella]

Estrella,

do you have any news about how many „special votes“ are remaining out there ?

Or how many people additionally enrolled to vote only yesterday (your time) ?

Haha, I'm not actually from NZ (in fact, I live a stone's throw from Austria). Anyway, it looks like detailed data about the election, presumably including the number of special votes will only be released just before the final results:

The Electoral Commission aims to have the official results published on Friday 6 November. Detailed information to be presented to the House of Representatives (E9), including allocation of list seats, voting place information and special vote statistics, is expected to be available by Friday 6 November.

[jaymichaud]

Congrats to Jacinda.

Glad ACT got their best result yet, 3rd largest party and 8% of the popular vote!

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The recent bad results of rightwing populists are promising...

I have bad news for you about ACT...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Also of note: Labour finally oust Nick Smith (a landslide fluke* who stayed in office so long that he ended up as Father of the House) at Nelson.

_{*First elected for Tasman in Labour's annus horribilis - defeating one of the Douglasites in what had been Bill Rowling's constituency - before following many of his electors to the expanded Nelson in 1996 when Tasman was abolished due to the cut in constituencies necessitated by the new electoral system.}

[warandwar]

Interesting how’s there’s no party running to the left of the greens, Marxism isn’t fanciful in NZ?

Depends on who you talk to in the Maori Party. Their new MP was certainly running to the Left in a way.

[Pericles]

Also of note: Labour finally oust Nick Smith (a landslide fluke* who stayed in office so long that he ended up as Father of the House) at Nelson.

_{*First elected for Tasman in Labour's annus horribilis - defeating one of the Douglasites in what had been Bill Rowling's constituency - before following many of his electors to the expanded Nelson in 1996 when Tasman was abolished due to the cut in constituencies necessitated by the new electoral system.}

Not that big of a fluke, Labour won the party vote in Nelson in 2017 and he benefitted from a split left vote.

[warandwar]

In many ways, a victory for nothing. Probably the least consequential government since Shipley. And yet a landslide for a Jacinda-centric campaign.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not that big of a fluke, Labour won the party vote in Nelson in 2017 and he benefitted from a split left vote.

I mean that his initial victory was a fluke: that the fluke was him

[brucejoel99]

Extremely happy to see that NZ has indeed overwhelmingly supported a continuation of Jacinda as PM, but I'd be remiss if I didn't express my being a bit letdown by that majority government status. Hearing Labour refuse to say over the course of the campaign that house prices need to drop or that they won't push for a capital gains tax or a wealth tax definitely pushed me toward believing that Labour ending up with less than 61 seats - thereby necessitating an actual coalition with the Greens - would truly be the best-case scenario.

Ah well, what can ya do? Now here's hoping that a majority of those who turned-out voted 'Yes' on a certain referendum!

[warandwar]

Interesting how’s there’s no party running to the left of the greens, Marxism isn’t fanciful in NZ?

Marxism, Maoism to be specific, was and is fanciful but confined to extraparliamentary fights, due to the peculiar circumstances of the settler state. Many don't wsnt to engage in what they see as pakeha politics. Militancy continues, a land occupation every now and then. Just a few years ago, police raided an alleged guerilla training camp.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The pre-election data indicated that the advance vote was nearly 2 million, but the election site with 100% counted has just 1,689,018. Where are the remaining 300k? Are those the fabled "special votes" that will be counted in two weeks? Were they rejected ballots? Or is there some other reason for the discrepancy?

[Estrella]

Labour's annus horribilis

Which one? There were, what, four or five of those in the last 30 years

[Pericles]

Not that big of a fluke, Labour won the party vote in Nelson in 2017 and he benefitted from a split left vote.

I mean that his initial victory was a fluke: that the fluke was him

Oh yeah, that seems accurate.

[jeron]

Great result for Labour! Any real surprise flips?

National underperformed the polls so that may have led to more Flips. I guess Ilam Was a surprise as National held the seat since it was created in 1996 ( and its predecessor Fendalton since it was created in 1946).

[brucejoel99]

The pre-election data indicated that the advance vote was nearly 2 million, but the election site with 100% counted has just 1,689,018. Where are the remaining 300k? Are those the fabled "special votes" that will be counted in two weeks? Were they rejected ballots? Or is there some other reason for the discrepancy?

A lot of people may have advance voted outside of their electorate, & their votes would be counted as special votes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The pre-election data indicated that the advance vote was nearly 2 million, but the election site with 100% counted has just 1,689,018. Where are the remaining 300k? Are those the fabled "special votes" that will be counted in two weeks? Were they rejected ballots? Or is there some other reason for the discrepancy?

A lot of people may have advance voted outside of their electorate, & their votes would be counted as special votes.

Ah, I see. So we can expect around 300k of those then.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Wow, this is a massively historic win for Labour. They’re the first party to win a majority under MMP. Still waiting on special votes and thus the final results, of course, but this majority should hold.

The Greens has one of their better nights as well. The only other times that they hit 10 or more seats was when Labour was especially weak, so this is an excellent result for them given Labour’s obvious strength. I cannot over emphasize how big Swarbrick’s win in Auckland Central is. Sure, the Greens don’t need an electorate to win, but winning one is a massive feather in their cap.

A third party had a great night too. ACT went from under a percent and only holding Epsom (thanks to a deal with National) to being equivalent to the Greens’ results: 1 electorate and 9 list members. The next three years will be very important for ACT: Will they manage to hold on, or will they collapse under their own success? I don’t think that any of the nine list members have any prior parliamentary experience, so it could be a sh*tshow.

Amazingly, a fourth party had an excellent night as well. I don’t think anyone predicted that the Māori Party would gain a seat. I myself had guessed that they wouldn’t and would in fact be heading the way of Mana before too long. Instead, they gained an electorate despite a Labour landslide. I think it’s even more shocking than Swarbrick winning Auckland Central. Last time Labour swept through Maori electorates with over 10% less of the party vote and yet, somehow the Māori Party pulled it off.

Edit: I guess you could say that I thought the Māori Party was dead in the foreshore and seabed water.

This was a historic drubbing for National. They did worse than I expected and several big names lost their electorates. I don’t see Collins lasting long. Their twitter account went private. They’re in shambles.

Perhaps the only party that did worse than National was NZ First. I’m thinking this might be the end of WINston’s long career in parliament. He’s 75 and will be 78 at the next election. I don’t think that NZ First will survive either; it always was something of a personality cult around WINston.

The minor right wing conspiracy parties were BTFO as I expected.

TOP managed to hold on to over a percent despite me not hearing anything about them this campaign. I could understand voting for them last time, but this time?

[Tender Branson]

The pre-election data indicated that the advance vote was nearly 2 million, but the election site with 100% counted has just 1,689,018. Where are the remaining 300k? Are those the fabled "special votes" that will be counted in two weeks? Were they rejected ballots? Or is there some other reason for the discrepancy?

A lot of people may have advance voted outside of their electorate, & their votes would be counted as special votes.

Ah, I see. So we can expect around 300k of those then.

Yes, for 2.7 million in total.

With the expansion of the voter roll to 3.6 million due to Election Day registration, 75% have voted (-5% compared to 2017).

[crals]

Could the special votes bring Labour to 50%? And the Greens to 3rd place? Would be a nice cherry on top for the NZ left.