2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)
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  2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)
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Author Topic: 2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)  (Read 41688 times)
skbl17
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« Reply #475 on: October 29, 2020, 08:03:52 PM »

I love how we were all waiting for the results at the same time lol.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #476 on: October 29, 2020, 08:07:50 PM »

Any idea why legalization of marijuana opposed by most in New Zealand?  In Canada, where I live, close to 70% support legalizing it while in US which is seen as more conservative than New Zealand has majority support too although much closer. 
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Pericles
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« Reply #477 on: October 29, 2020, 08:28:26 PM »

Lol Jacinda only reveals now that she voted Yes on cannabis. It was disappointing that she didn't make any effort on it, maybe the result would have been different.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300145410/live-referendum-results-how-did-nz-vote-on-euthanasia-and-cannabis
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #478 on: October 30, 2020, 06:26:43 AM »

Have any of the electorate seats flipped now that the full results have been released?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #479 on: October 30, 2020, 08:12:18 AM »

Have any of the electorate seats flipped now that the full results have been released?

They will be released on the 6th. That was only the referendum preliminary results.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #480 on: October 30, 2020, 08:31:29 AM »

Have any of the electorate seats flipped now that the full results have been released?

There are still up to 480.000 "special votes" left.

Theoretically, those votes could still lead to Cannabis winning, but those votes would need to be so lopsided (65-70% in favour of legalisation) that it is extremely unlikely.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #481 on: October 30, 2020, 09:19:31 AM »

Lol Jacinda only reveals now that she voted Yes on cannabis. It was disappointing that she didn't make any effort on it, maybe the result would have been different.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300145410/live-referendum-results-how-did-nz-vote-on-euthanasia-and-cannabis

Alternatively it might have led to Labour winning a few less seats in the GE.

(without necessarily turning round the vote on pot)

For me this confirms that referendums should be "stand alone" events if possible.
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Pericles
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« Reply #482 on: October 31, 2020, 03:41:45 AM »

A deal has been agreed between the Labour Party and the Greens. The Green Party co-leaders will be ministers outside of cabinet, and will support Labour on confidence and supply. The parties have also agreed to a level of policy cooperation, particularly on climate change and homelessness. This is a sensible move to include the Green Party's talent in government. It isn't a full coalition, which makes sense because Labour won a majority, and might be best for the Greens given the arithmetic so they can actually show some independence from Labour.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300146558/election-2020-green-party-votes-to-be-part-of-next-government-with-labour

By the way, an interesting feature of the agreement is clause 17, "Beyond these stated areas of cooperation, it is also the Government’s intention to  work with political parties from across Parliament (including the opposition) on issues that affect our democracy, including the Electoral Commission’s 2012 recommended changes to MMP, electoral finance law, and the length of the Parliamentary term" Hopefully this means that the party vote threshold is lowered to 4% and parliamentary terms are extended to 4 years (though because the latter was twice rejected in referendums decades ago, it would probably need to go to a referendum and be rejected again).
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #483 on: October 31, 2020, 03:48:30 AM »

By the way, an interesting feature of the agreement is clause 17, "Beyond these stated areas of cooperation, it is also the Government’s intention to  work with political parties from across Parliament (including the opposition) on issues that affect our democracy, including the Electoral Commission’s 2012 recommended changes to MMP, electoral finance law, and the length of the Parliamentary term" Hopefully this means that the party vote threshold is lowered to 4% and parliamentary terms are extended to 4 years (though because the latter was twice rejected in referendums decades ago, it would probably need to go to a referendum and be rejected again).

I sure hope it's rejected. Having 3-year terms is one of the best features of NZ (and Australian) politics, and more countries need to follow that model. I already hate that Sweden switched to 4 years in the 90s (and unsurprisingly its politics have become markedly worse since).
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Pericles
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« Reply #484 on: October 31, 2020, 03:53:50 AM »

By the way, an interesting feature of the agreement is clause 17, "Beyond these stated areas of cooperation, it is also the Government’s intention to  work with political parties from across Parliament (including the opposition) on issues that affect our democracy, including the Electoral Commission’s 2012 recommended changes to MMP, electoral finance law, and the length of the Parliamentary term" Hopefully this means that the party vote threshold is lowered to 4% and parliamentary terms are extended to 4 years (though because the latter was twice rejected in referendums decades ago, it would probably need to go to a referendum and be rejected again).

I sure hope it's rejected. Having 3-year terms is one of the best features of NZ (and Australian) politics, and more countries need to follow that model. I already hate that Sweden switched to 4 years in the 90s (and unsurprisingly its politics have become markedly worse since).

If there's strong evidence suggesting 3 year terms produce better outcomes I'm open to changing my mind. My impression was that 4 years would be better so governments could settle in and have more time to actually govern, and it strikes the right balance (3 years being too short, 5 years like the UK or more being too long).
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #485 on: October 31, 2020, 04:00:00 AM »

By the way, an interesting feature of the agreement is clause 17, "Beyond these stated areas of cooperation, it is also the Government’s intention to  work with political parties from across Parliament (including the opposition) on issues that affect our democracy, including the Electoral Commission’s 2012 recommended changes to MMP, electoral finance law, and the length of the Parliamentary term" Hopefully this means that the party vote threshold is lowered to 4% and parliamentary terms are extended to 4 years (though because the latter was twice rejected in referendums decades ago, it would probably need to go to a referendum and be rejected again).

I sure hope it's rejected. Having 3-year terms is one of the best features of NZ (and Australian) politics, and more countries need to follow that model. I already hate that Sweden switched to 4 years in the 90s (and unsurprisingly its politics have become markedly worse since).

If there's strong evidence suggesting 3 year terms produce better outcomes I'm open to changing my mind. My impression was that 4 years would be better so governments could settle in and have more time to actually govern, and it strikes the right balance (3 years being too short, 5 years like the UK or more being too long).

I mean, I don't think it would be possible to have scientific data on the subject given that the sample size of countries that have changed their term lengths is ridiculously small.

I strongly believe that shorter terms are better for democracy, and that incumbents that know they have a long time ahead are more likely to betray their mandates in some way. 3 years is a long time, more than enough to "govern" in a country that doesn't have years-long campaigns like the US. I do think 2 years would be probably too short (even in countries other than the US, but especially the US because the campaign system there is so comically broken) but 4 years is also slightly too long, although it's a reasonable length. 5 years is far too much, yeah.
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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #486 on: October 31, 2020, 04:27:36 AM »

By the way, an interesting feature of the agreement is clause 17, "Beyond these stated areas of cooperation, it is also the Government’s intention to  work with political parties from across Parliament (including the opposition) on issues that affect our democracy, including the Electoral Commission’s 2012 recommended changes to MMP, electoral finance law, and the length of the Parliamentary term" Hopefully this means that the party vote threshold is lowered to 4% and parliamentary terms are extended to 4 years (though because the latter was twice rejected in referendums decades ago, it would probably need to go to a referendum and be rejected again).

I sure hope it's rejected. Having 3-year terms is one of the best features of NZ (and Australian) politics, and more countries need to follow that model. I already hate that Sweden switched to 4 years in the 90s (and unsurprisingly its politics have become markedly worse since).

Every Australian state bar Queensland has had four-year terms for the last three decades. And Queensland voted four-year ago to finally move to four-year terms to bring them in line with every other state.
At least in Australia we've found four-year terms have worked better. Three year terms give you two, two and a half years sitting of parliament which isn't really enough for a government to enact their agenda, and instead leaves them in election mode for nearly half of the sitting term.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #487 on: October 31, 2020, 07:34:07 AM »

I mean, I don't think it would be possible to have scientific data on the subject given that the sample size of countries that have changed their term lengths is ridiculously small.

I strongly believe that shorter terms are better for democracy, and that incumbents that know they have a long time ahead are more likely to betray their mandates in some way. 3 years is a long time, more than enough to "govern" in a country that doesn't have years-long campaigns like the US. I do think 2 years would be probably too short (even in countries other than the US, but especially the US because the campaign system there is so comically broken) but 4 years is also slightly too long, although it's a reasonable length. 5 years is far too much, yeah.

Partially unrelated, but since no less than il bel paese là dove 'l sì suona has terms of 5 years, do you support shortening them? Keeping in mind of course that most of our legislatures do not actually last all of them, let alone our governments.

To be clear I agree with you that New Zealand's 3-year terms are a great feature. It's one of the many things about New Zealand politics I find so soothingly uncomplicated.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #488 on: October 31, 2020, 08:15:01 AM »

France used to have seven year terms for their presidency - that's pretty unthinkable these days.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #489 on: October 31, 2020, 03:08:31 PM »

Partially unrelated, but since no less than il bel paese là dove 'l sì suona has terms of 5 years, do you support shortening them? Keeping in mind of course that most of our legislatures do not actually last all of them, let alone our governments.

Yeah, absolutely. In fact, I wish we'd had more early elections than we actually have. I think the infrequency of elections is something that has contributed to the dysfunctionality of our politics. Like, by all logic, we should have dissolved parliament after the 2016 referendum failure, as Renzi wanted. That would have avoided two years of a lame-duck, impotent Gentiloni government just keeping things up until the inevitable defeat. Similarly, going to vote in 2011 would have prevented the Monti disaster (although of course any government in that situation would have found itself doing terribly unpopular things).

Right now I don't want early elections, but that's only because I want this government to reform the electoral system and elect the next President (and also because right now we're in a state of health emergency, of course). If those things weren't issues, I'd say it's probably time to let the right govern and see them screw up.
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Gary JG
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« Reply #490 on: October 31, 2020, 04:37:52 PM »

France used to have seven year terms for their presidency - that's pretty unthinkable these days.

UK and predecessors have had varying maximum terms for Parliaments. Extracted from the Wikipedia article on Triennial Acts.

"Under the Triennial Act 1694, also known as the Meeting of Parliament Act 1694 (6 & 7 Will. & Mar. c. 2), Parliament met annually and held general elections once every three years. The country now remained in a grip of constant election fever (ten elections in twenty years) and loyalties among MPs were difficult to establish, which increased partisanship and rivalry in Parliament. This state of political instability is often known as the 'Rage of Party'. In 1716, the Septennial Act was passed, under which a parliament could remain in being for up to seven years. This Act ushered in a period of greater stability in British politics, with long-lasting parliaments and governments typical throughout much of the 18th century."

The seven year maximum term was reduced to the modern five year one in 1911.
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Pericles
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« Reply #491 on: November 01, 2020, 11:24:12 PM »

Jacinda has announced her new cabinet, and the majority Labour government begins. I think we should shift discussion that's not directly about the election to that NZ political discussion thread.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #492 on: November 02, 2020, 10:01:24 AM »

Any significant election changes with the "late" votes added, then?
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skbl17
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« Reply #493 on: November 02, 2020, 11:47:34 AM »

Any significant election changes with the "late" votes added, then?

There were a few votes added the day after the election, but there were no notable changes to the count. The 480,000 or so special votes are being counted, but the results pages aren't being updated as that happens.

We'll just have to wait until the Electoral Commission officially declares results on November 6.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #494 on: November 05, 2020, 08:12:34 PM »
« Edited: November 05, 2020, 08:17:42 PM by The Hunt for the Red October Surprises »

Special Votes are in

Labour +1
Maori +1
National -2

Swarbrick keeps Auckland Central.

Weed is still illegal.

https://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2020/

Labour broke 50%, reaching 50.01% lol
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #495 on: November 06, 2020, 12:52:08 AM »

Final turnout was 82.2% of those registered to vote and 76.5% of all eligible over 18.
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Pericles
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« Reply #496 on: November 06, 2020, 04:04:24 AM »

Great election results. It looks like Labour got the most party votes everywhere except Epsom. Once this is confirmed with a new map I need to update my sig lol.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #497 on: November 06, 2020, 08:58:10 AM »


As one D J Trump might put it - "ITS A FIX!!!" Cheesy
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #498 on: November 06, 2020, 12:43:46 PM »

Great election results. It looks like Labour got the most party votes everywhere except Epsom. Once this is confirmed with a new map I need to update my sig lol.

Hahahaha! That’s what I get for having signatures off! I never would have known if you hadn’t said anything!
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #499 on: November 06, 2020, 06:55:17 PM »

Curious if there's any reason why the South Island is restricted to exactly 16 seats while the North Island's number can vary. Is the population size and distribution really that much more dynamic?
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