2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 07:51:59 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 12 13 14 15 16 [17] 18 19 20 21
Author Topic: 2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)  (Read 41692 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #400 on: October 17, 2020, 04:19:33 AM »

If all (theoretically) eligible 3.8 million NZers above 18 were also enrolled to vote, and 2.6 million voted today, turnout would be only 68%.

There’s a gap of ca. 300.000 people who’d be eligible to vote, but who are not registered (mostly young people).
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #401 on: October 17, 2020, 04:30:05 AM »

Here are my 3 sets of turnout estimates:

3.49 million enrolled (without same-day enrollment): 74.5%

3.60 million enrolled (includes same-day enrollment): 72%

3.80 million (all eligible, includes those not enrolled): 68%

That’s based on 2.6 million votes cast in total.

The 2017 number (79.8%) is comparable to the 74.5% number.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #402 on: October 17, 2020, 04:40:54 AM »

This is the 2nd major election in a row now in which we have seen a HUGE early vote, but a weak Election Day vote, resulting in lower turnout overall compared to the previous election.

USA, take note.

Anyway, congrats to Jacinda on achieving an absolute majority !
Logged
skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #403 on: October 17, 2020, 04:44:59 AM »
« Edited: October 17, 2020, 04:53:46 AM by skbl17 »

Not 100% counted yet, but barring some insanely dramatic shift in the remaining votes, I'm 99.9% confident Chloe Swarbrick has won Auckland Central (97.6% counted, lead of 490,) and Waiariki has almost certainly been won by Rawiri Waititi (91.3% counted, lead of 294).

The Maori Party is back, and the Greens have their first electorate seat since they held Coromandel at the turn of the millennium.
Logged
Stuart98
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,783
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -5.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #404 on: October 17, 2020, 04:51:28 AM »

This is the 2nd major election in a row now in which we have seen a HUGE early vote, but a weak Election Day vote, resulting in lower turnout overall compared to the previous election.

USA, take note.
Bodes extremely well for the Democrats here in the states if anything even approaching that comes true here.
Logged
Pulaski
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 690


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #405 on: October 17, 2020, 05:41:03 AM »

Well, a fantastic night for Labour and a well-deserved victory. Glad to see Winston Peters thrown out. Hope this enforces the message with state and federal leaders here across the ditch: big electoral gains to be had from sound, careful leadership on Covid, not endless buck-passing.

If the cannabis referendum passes, it becomes hard to justify not moving to New Zealand once my partner and I are set up to do so.
Logged
Battista Minola 1616
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,282
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -1.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #406 on: October 17, 2020, 05:46:20 AM »

WOW
The results look awesome. Labour majority!
Also I wouldn't have expected the Māori Party to make a comeback.

By the way, how are the referenda going?
Logged
skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #407 on: October 17, 2020, 05:48:55 AM »

WOW
The results look awesome. Labour majority!
Also I wouldn't have expected the Māori Party to make a comeback.

By the way, how are the referenda going?

No results for the referenda will be available until October 30.
Logged
Battista Minola 1616
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,282
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -1.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #408 on: October 17, 2020, 06:00:05 AM »

WOW
The results look awesome. Labour majority!
Also I wouldn't have expected the Māori Party to make a comeback.

By the way, how are the referenda going?

No results for the referenda will be available until October 30.

I understand. I'll wait for October 30 then, and rejoice in Labour's victory in the meantime.
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #409 on: October 17, 2020, 06:28:16 AM »

Shows you the potential election gains a party could have reaped from competent handling of Covid(Gazes at most of Europe and the US in particular). It'll be NZ's first majority goverment for a long-time so high risk of failure with labour unable to deflect any failures onto collations partners. Thinking either this will be a high-water mark for labour or it'll be blown back to earth next election. NZ terms are incredibly short at just 3 years with no upper house to restrict them so Labour has pretty much a blank check to implement their policies.

How successfully they will be at solving the housing problem is another matter?, they have made good moves towards removing NIMBy restrictions in terms of height and parking limits but they haven't had much appetite for taking on NIMBYism heads on. Kiwibuild has turned out to be an almost total failure in comparison to what had been initially promised. A little worried that labour will instead continue it's a streak of blaming nebulous foreign* investors for the housing problem despite every economist having told them that they are not to blame and banning purchases by them have made little difference to housing prices.

Kinda interested on how the referendum results will go but those won't be out until the end of the month. Congratulations to all Kiwis on your election and best of luck to your governments when it comes to delivering on their promises

*dog-whistle for Chinese, there's a reason that both Indian and Chinese immigrants in New Zealand are strong National voters(While elsewhere they align themselves with centre-left parties) and part of that is xenophobia from labour that
Logged
Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,891
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #410 on: October 17, 2020, 06:42:58 AM »

I imagine that a single electorate is hard to predict, especially one of the Maori electorates; but how did no one see it coming that the Maori Party had a chance at a comeback?

Or was it actually somewhat expected? (granted 1 electorate is not much but I don't think anyone expected it?)
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,223
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #411 on: October 17, 2020, 06:49:43 AM »

The Nationals clearly underpolled in this election. But, overall, I believe the result was expected. Jacinda did a good job handling the virus and basically sealed the race. The Nationals did a really bad campaign and didn't even try to make inroads. This is the best result from Labour since the 2nd World War, right?
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,601
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #412 on: October 17, 2020, 07:02:38 AM »

Finally, a bit of good news in 2020 Smiley
Logged
Battista Minola 1616
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,282
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -1.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #413 on: October 17, 2020, 07:12:52 AM »

*dog-whistle for Chinese, there's a reason that both Indian and Chinese immigrants in New Zealand are strong National voters(While elsewhere they align themselves with centre-left parties) and part of that is xenophobia from labour that

Actually to my knowledge people of Chinese ancestry are also strong Conservative voters in Canada (and possibly in the UK too but I may be recalling incorrectly).
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #414 on: October 17, 2020, 07:18:50 AM »

Impressive. Some interesting electorate results - Rangitata (the largest town of which is Timaru) flipping is interesting, because that's real Old Labour (so to speak) territory.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #415 on: October 17, 2020, 07:49:29 AM »

Does anyone know when the final results and turnout numbers will be released ?

I assume that same day registration numbers will have to be added to the pre-election-day enrollment numbers first to calculate it ...

The referendum results are not out for another 2 weeks, so I guess official turnout numbers also won’t be released for a while.
Logged
politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #416 on: October 17, 2020, 07:51:39 AM »

It really does put a smile on my face that someone as great and awesome as Jacinda Ardern has not only won another term, but with one of the biggest landslides (and apparently/likely the first Majority Government under MMP). It was a well-earned and well-deserved victory for someone that has led NZ through multiple crises.
Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,136
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #417 on: October 17, 2020, 08:04:04 AM »

It really does put a smile on my face that someone as great and awesome as Jacinda Ardern has not only won another term, but with one of the biggest landslides (and apparently/likely the first Majority Government under MMP). It was a well-earned and well-deserved victory for someone that has led NZ through multiple crises.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #418 on: October 17, 2020, 08:07:46 AM »

Does anyone know when the final results and turnout numbers will be released ?

I assume that same day registration numbers will have to be added to the pre-election-day enrollment numbers first to calculate it ...

The referendum results are not out for another 2 weeks, so I guess official turnout numbers also won’t be released for a while.

NZ also seems to have a system of „special votes“ being added to the current total in the next 3 weeks or so.

Not sure how many of them are out there, but I guess still hundreds of thousands, even though the current count says 99% in (~ 2.4 million votes).

That would put total votes cast somewhere between 2.6 and 2.9 million.

With the same-day-registration in place for the first time this year, I’d assume 3.6 million registered voters when final results are out.

Turnout range: 72-80% - with 76% most likely (~ 2.74 million votes).

That would mean ca. 350.000 additional „special votes“ being added in the next weeks.

Quote
The Electoral Commission aims to have the official results published on Friday 6 November. Detailed information to be presented to the House of Representatives (E9), including allocation of list seats, voting place information and special vote statistics, is expected to be available by Friday 6 November.
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,601
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #419 on: October 17, 2020, 08:22:00 AM »

Impressive. Some interesting electorate results - Rangitata (the largest town of which is Timaru) flipping is interesting, because that's real Old Labour (so to speak) territory.

Is that the Maori win?
Logged
parochial boy
parochial_boy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,114


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #420 on: October 17, 2020, 08:29:43 AM »

Re the Maori party win, is it not the case that the Bay of Plenty/Gisborne is the part of the country that actually has the largest concentration of Maori in the country? And coincidence that it is more or less Winston's old stamping ground?
Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,136
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #421 on: October 17, 2020, 08:37:29 AM »

Re the Maori party win, is it not the case that the Bay of Plenty/Gisborne is the part of the country that actually has the largest concentration of Maori in the country? And coincidence that it is more or less Winston's old stamping ground?
Per wiki article on the Bay of Plenty:
Quote
In the 2018 census, ethnicities were 73.6% European/Pākehā, 29.1% Māori, 3.5% Pacific peoples, 7.2% Asian, and 1.8% other ethnicities. People may identify with more than one ethnicity.
So yeah it seems to be quite high in that metric. The Maori % here is close to double that of NZ as a whole.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,725


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #422 on: October 17, 2020, 09:38:32 AM »

Just woke up, good to see that my prediction prediction of Labour under 61 didn't come to pass. This is an unsustainably strong result in MMP, so Labour better use their majority well before the next election.
Logged
ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
New Frontier
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,230
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #423 on: October 17, 2020, 10:16:31 AM »

It really does put a smile on my face that someone as great and awesome as Jacinda Ardern has not only won another term, but with one of the biggest landslides (and apparently/likely the first Majority Government under MMP). It was a well-earned and well-deserved victory for someone that has led NZ through multiple crises.
Logged
politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #424 on: October 17, 2020, 10:26:02 AM »

I just watched the PM's victory speech. It was a great speech, but I'm almost amazed at how much is the same as here. She spoke of the urban/rural divide and overall polarization. It's stunning to hear it so upfront from another world leader.

Even though she didn't explicitly say she'd be leading a Labour Majority Government, pretty sure we all know that's what's happening, right?
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 12 13 14 15 16 [17] 18 19 20 21  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 12 queries.