2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there a reporting bias in New Zealand normally?

Well?

Unless there's a significant Labour reporting bias, it's looking like they're overperforming significantly (as are the Greens).

The only bias I know is that the special and overseas votes (which are generally added after election night) lean Labour.

In addition, Hooton (normally a National hack on Newshub) just said he expects even the election night results to potentially look even better for Labour.

So if anything they could be on track to overperform by even more.

...oh wow. Absolutely NUT results for Jacinda if confirmed.

I mean, she's earned it. Her topnotch leadership through COVID-19 garnered international attention.

Yep. One common thread I've seen in the elections I've followed lately is that COVID, and individual leaders' seriousness and dedication to addressing the issue competently, is one of the rare issues that breaks through traditional party identities. We've seen that in Italy with the recent regional elections (with incumbents that dealt with the crisis well winning with ridiculous percentages like 69% and 76%, which you do not normally see in this country). It's a really interesting trend.

[mileslunn]

Is there a reporting bias in New Zealand normally?

Well?

Unless there's a significant Labour reporting bias, it's looking like they're overperforming significantly (as are the Greens).

The only bias I know is that the special and overseas votes (which are generally added after election night) lean Labour.

In addition, Hooton (normally a National hack on Newshub) just said he expects even the election night results to potentially look even better for Labour.

So if anything they could be on track to overperform by even more.

...oh wow. Absolutely NUT results for Jacinda if confirmed.

I mean, she's earned it. Her topnotch leadership through COVID-19 garnered international attention.

Yep. One common thread I've seen in the elections I've followed lately is that COVID, and individual leaders' seriousness and dedication to addressing the issue competently, is one of the rare issues that breaks through traditional party identities. We've seen that in Italy with the recent regional elections (with incumbents that dealt with the crisis well winning with ridiculous percentages like 69% and 76%, which you do not normally see in this country). It's a really interesting trend.

True enough, although Trump has handled it poorly thus why he is not benefitting.  Had he handled it competently, could have won a landslide.  UK though seems normal divide, but it first was breaking down so maybe since BoJo has messed up but not as badly as Trump he has lost all soft supporters, but held onto core.

[brucejoel99]

THE NATIONAL PARTY'S TWITTER PAGE HAS GONE PRIVATE LMAOOOOOOOO

[Antonio the Sixth]

THE NATIONAL PARTY'S TWITTER PAGE HAS GONE PRIVATE LMAOOOOOOOO

Hahahahahahahahahaha

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

THE NATIONAL PARTY'S TWITTER PAGE HAS GONE PRIVATE LMAOOOOOOOO

B. T. F. O.

[skbl17]

Swarbrick is now ahead by 419 votes in Auckland Central. 36% counted.

A quarter of the total votes (and 56% of the advance votes) have been counted, by the way. I bring up the advance vote because the party vote looks to have stabilized with Labour on 50.4-50.5% and 64-66 seats. Personally, I think a Labour majority is quite likely.

To more knowledgeable Kiwi posters, are there historically any notable shifts once the advance votes are done and all that's left are on-the-day and special votes? I know special votes tend to favor left-of-center parties, but what about on-the-day votes?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Is there anywhere I can view a result map?

[ottermax]

Is there anywhere I can view a result map?

NZHerald page has a decent one.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2020-latest-results-party-vote-electorate-vote-and-full-data/5CFVO4ENKNQDE3SICRRNPU5GZM/

[EastAnglianLefty]

At present, it looks like there's only one constituency where the Nationals are leading the party vote - Papakura, which is Judith Collins' electorate. Even there, the lead is only 50 votes.

[brucejoel99]

To more knowledgeable Kiwi posters, are there historically any notable shifts once the advance votes are done and all that's left are on-the-day and special votes? I know special votes tend to favor left-of-center parties, but what about on-the-day votes?

Obligatory "not a Kiwi poster," but usually National loses 2 seats, Labour & the Greens get an extra one each, & sometimes a marginal electorate flips. Probably won't make any difference this time around, though, what with the results so far being so overwhelmingly one-sided. (And in any event, this election is so weird because of the sheer number of advance votes making this all out to be more-or-less uncharted waters.)

As for which way on-the-day votes lean, well, it's "traditional" to vote on-the-day, so take from that (anecdote) what you will.

[skbl17]

Labour's seat count is hovering at 65-66, but their party vote has inched back to 49.9%. 46% counted (77% of advance votes counted).

Swarbrick's lead in Auckland Central hasn't changed much in the last hour - 437 votes. 64% counted.

Waiariki remains tight - Tamaki Coffey (Labour) is ahead by 10 votes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, it looks like the last few batches dropped have been more right-leaning. No idea whether that trend will continue throughout the night, though.

[EastAnglianLefty]

At present, it looks like there's only one constituency where the Nationals are leading the party vote - Papakura, which is Judith Collins' electorate. Even there, the lead is only 50 votes.

This has now changed - Labour are leading in the party vote for Papakura, but Epsom is voting for the Nationals.

Several of the Maori electorates look competitive at the moment. If the Maori Party win any of those, does that entitle them to list seats as well?

[Sestak]

At present, it looks like there's only one constituency where the Nationals are leading the party vote - Papakura, which is Judith Collins' electorate. Even there, the lead is only 50 votes.

This has now changed - Labour are leading in the party vote for Papakura, but Epsom is voting for the Nationals.

Several of the Maori electorates look competitive at the moment. If the Maori Party win any of those, does that entitle them to list seats as well?

In theory, yes, but 1% of the party vote means they aren't going to get any list seats beyond the electorates.

[Pericles]

This is more beautiful than I'd ever dared hope.

[skbl17]

Yeah, it looks like the last few batches dropped have been more right-leaning. No idea whether that trend will continue throughout the night, though.

I think the drop in the Labour vote is from on-the-day votes being counted. Labour's hovering at 50.7-50.8% of the advance vote, and that hasn't changed in over an hour.

Maori Party back ahead in Waiariki - by 11 votes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Labour slipping further below the symbolic 50% threshold. I'd be kinda disappointed if they don't cross it, at this point.

I think the drop in the Labour vote is from on-the-day votes being counted. Labour's hovering at 50.7-50.8% of the advance vote, and that hasn't changed in over an hour.

Is there a place where we can see the breakdown between election-day vs advance vote?

[skbl17]

Labour slipping further below the symbolic 50% threshold. I'd be kinda disappointed if they don't cross it, at this point.

I think the drop in the Labour vote is from on-the-day votes being counted. Labour's hovering at 50.7-50.8% of the advance vote, and that hasn't changed in over an hour.

Is there a place where we can see the breakdown between election-day vs advance vote?

I'm using the Electoral Commission website and refreshing it every couple of minutes. They have separate pages for advance votes and the overall results.

Labour down to 49.3% now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Labour slipping further below the symbolic 50% threshold. I'd be kinda disappointed if they don't cross it, at this point.

I think the drop in the Labour vote is from on-the-day votes being counted. Labour's hovering at 50.7-50.8% of the advance vote, and that hasn't changed in over an hour.

Is there a place where we can see the breakdown between election-day vs advance vote?

I'm using the Electoral Commission website and refreshing it every couple of minutes. They have separate pages for advance votes and the overall results.

Labour down to 49.3% now.

Interesting.

This implies Labour is winning 43% of the election day vote, and National 30.8%. If that holds, we should see further tightening, though I'm not sure how much.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Assuming 2/3 advance voting, 1/3 election day, that would end up as Labour 48%, National 27.5%. Let's see if that estimate holds or if something changes.

That would give Labour 62 or 63 seats.

[skbl17]

We have our first electorate with full provisional results, as Rangitata is a Labour gain from National.

As for Auckland Central, Chloe Swarbrick is now ahead by 411 votes, and the count there is getting close to the end. 87% counted.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout looks 75%-ish when all is counted, or 2.6 million votes out of 3.49 million enrolled.

That would be a drop of 5% compared to 2017, but still pretty good.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Daddy Rawiri Waititi looks like he has this one in the bag

[skbl17]

Judith Collins has conceded defeat.

Labour is now down to 49% of the party vote with 76.6% counted. 85.5% of advance votes have been counted. Nelson is officially the second Labour gain from National.

Also, a couple of notes on the electorates:

- I'm 98% confident Chloe Swarbrick has won in Auckland Central. Her lead is holding steady at 400, and we're now up to 92% counted.

- It's increasingly likely the Maori Party will win the electorate of Waiariki. It's not a certain Maori Party gain, but Rawiri Waititi is leading by 142 votes with 82% counted.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout looks 75%-ish when all is counted, or 2.6 million votes out of 3.49 million enrolled.

That would be a drop of 5% compared to 2017, but still pretty good.

Turnout might also end up lower than 75%, because of this:

This year, for the first time, people can enroll or update their address details on election day before they vote at any voting place, she said.

Which means, because a lot of young people were not enrolled, they did so today ahead of voting, which pushes enrollment up to 3.6 million.

That would lower turnout to around 72-73% ...

A lot of young NZers are not registered to vote:

https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/enrolment-statistics/enrolment-by-general-electorate/