2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)
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  2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)
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Author Topic: 2020 New Zealand general election & referendums (17 October)  (Read 41687 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #350 on: October 17, 2020, 12:39:39 AM »

My prediction is:

47.9% LAB
33.3% NAT
  6.9% ACT
  5.6% GRN
  2.9% NZF
  3.4% Others

Seats:

62/120 - LAB
42/120 - NAT
  9/120 - ACT
  7/120 - GRN

Turnout: 81.4% (+1.6)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #351 on: October 17, 2020, 12:52:44 AM »

I waited until today to cast my vote, some people like to do it the traditional way. Hopefully enough so turnout is higher than it has been recently.

I think there's a good chance, but who knows ?

When people do not expect a close race, with LAB being so far ahead, many might simply do their duty and vote early but others might then stay home on election day (see Vienna last weekend).

On the other hand, voters might outfit Jacinda with a fat mandate today.
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skbl17
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« Reply #352 on: October 17, 2020, 01:02:18 AM »

Live streams:

- TVNZ: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpSZj4qImNE
- RNZ: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1aWsKhuhzY
- Newshub: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQo3XMpwwzA

Official results:

- Electoral Commission: https://electionresults.govt.nz/
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #353 on: October 17, 2020, 01:02:22 AM »

The polls have now closed.

Here's a live stream + live thread:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300131429/election-night-2020-live-countdown-to-first-results
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #354 on: October 17, 2020, 01:05:50 AM »

My prediction is they call it for Labour in a very short period of time.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #355 on: October 17, 2020, 01:12:12 AM »

Labour close to 50%, National under 30% so disastrous night.  ACT about as expected so will win seats.  New Zealand First under so probably misses cut off, while Greens outperforming so maybe some on left swung over preferring a coalition?
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skbl17
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« Reply #356 on: October 17, 2020, 01:16:42 AM »

2.5% counted: Labour on 49.8%; they're hovering around 50%. Still early days, though.

Swarbrick (GRN) currently leading in Auckland Central by ~100 votes. 6% of votes counted.

Maori Party candidate Rawiri Waititi ahead in Waiariki by 68 votes. 3% of votes counted.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #357 on: October 17, 2020, 01:17:39 AM »

Is there a reporting bias in New Zealand normally?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #358 on: October 17, 2020, 01:18:51 AM »

Oh dear, there's a concerning amount of New Conservative votes for there already having been 1% of the votes counted. Leave the Dark Ages where they belong, NZ.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #359 on: October 17, 2020, 01:23:09 AM »

Swarbrick (GRN) currently leading in Auckland Central by ~100 votes. 6% of votes counted.

7.1% counted now, with Swarbrick (GRN) on 579, White (LAB) on 454, & Mellow (NAT) on 339.

Nevermind, close to 11% in now & Swarbrick's still leading in Auckland Central! Let's go, Chlöe!!
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skbl17
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« Reply #360 on: October 17, 2020, 01:24:30 AM »

5.3% counted: Labour on 50.6%. Auckland Central is still a narrow Swarbrick lead (173 vote margin).

Labour now ahead in all Maori electorates.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #361 on: October 17, 2020, 01:24:48 AM »

Surprised National is under 30%.  I know they would do bad, but good gawd, they are like down almost 18 points which is massive.
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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #362 on: October 17, 2020, 01:30:09 AM »

NZF is def out on these numbers. Lab can prob get to majority with around 47 with that - they're at 50 now and the late special votes will break for Labor. Looks very promising.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #363 on: October 17, 2020, 01:32:29 AM »

Interesting, so apparently the early Auckland Central votes usually favor National as they're usually from the more rural areas, so if we're still waiting for the urban votes... well, then, Swarbrick's probably in it there. Still very early days, though.
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skbl17
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« Reply #364 on: October 17, 2020, 01:35:00 AM »

9.2% counted: Labour on 50.0%. Helen White (Labour) ahead in Auckland Central by 56 votes. Waiariki is bouncing back and forth between the Maori Party and Labour.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #365 on: October 17, 2020, 01:38:00 AM »

Yay!

Is Collins out after this?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #366 on: October 17, 2020, 01:39:44 AM »
« Edited: October 17, 2020, 01:52:31 AM by brucejoel99 »

So does Labour seemingly doing better than projected potentially mean good things for the 'Yes' side on the cannabis referendum (perhaps as a result of higher turnout among social liberals)?

EDIT: on top of that, does the Greens' outperformance of their pre-election polling by a significant margin suggest that we'll see a similar overperformance of the 'Yes' vote come the announcement of the cannabis referendum's results at the end of the month?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #367 on: October 17, 2020, 01:40:36 AM »

Is there a reporting bias in New Zealand normally?

Well?

Unless there's a significant Labour reporting bias, it's looking like they're overperforming significantly (as are the Greens).
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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #368 on: October 17, 2020, 01:42:43 AM »

Is there a reporting bias in New Zealand normally?

Well?

Unless there's a significant Labour reporting bias, it's looking like they're overperforming significantly (as are the Greens).

The only bias I know is that the special and overseas votes (which are generally added after election night) lean Labour.

In addition, Hooton (normally a National hack on Newshub) just said he expects even the election night results to potentially look even better for Labour.

So if anything they could be on track to overperform by even more.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #369 on: October 17, 2020, 01:44:57 AM »

Auckland Central is a real doozy of a race, it's switching every time it's updated!
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #370 on: October 17, 2020, 01:45:29 AM »

13.5% Reporting, with Labour at 50.4% and Swarbrick leading in Auckland Central.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #371 on: October 17, 2020, 01:45:57 AM »

Is there a reporting bias in New Zealand normally?

Well?

Unless there's a significant Labour reporting bias, it's looking like they're overperforming significantly (as are the Greens).

The only bias I know is that the special and overseas votes (which are generally added after election night) lean Labour.

In addition, Hooton (normally a National hack on Newshub) just said he expects even the election night results to potentially look even better for Labour.

So if anything they could be on track to overperform by even more.

...oh wow. Absolutely NUT results for Jacinda if confirmed.
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Pericles
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« Reply #372 on: October 17, 2020, 01:47:01 AM »

Is there a reporting bias in New Zealand normally?

Not really. Sorry I can't update live much, I'll give my thoughts in detail later if I can't tonight.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #373 on: October 17, 2020, 01:50:16 AM »

Is there a reporting bias in New Zealand normally?

Well?

Unless there's a significant Labour reporting bias, it's looking like they're overperforming significantly (as are the Greens).

The only bias I know is that the special and overseas votes (which are generally added after election night) lean Labour.

In addition, Hooton (normally a National hack on Newshub) just said he expects even the election night results to potentially look even better for Labour.

So if anything they could be on track to overperform by even more.

...oh wow. Absolutely NUT results for Jacinda if confirmed.

I mean, she's earned it. Her topnotch leadership through COVID-19 garnered international attention.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #374 on: October 17, 2020, 01:53:43 AM »

Is David Seymour drunk right now? (I mean, God only knows I'd be too if I were in his position, but still Tongue)
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