Hillary's Ascendance: 2008

[HarrisonL]

A new timeline I plan on developing in detail. The timeline will begin with the 2008 elections, but will continue onward focusing on elections and administrative events.

Background:


https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d4/George-W-Bush.jpeg
(Wikipedia, PD)

President George W. Bush, a Republican, is in the twilight of his presidency. After a controversial victory over Al Gore in 2000, Bush managed to pull the nation together after the 9/11 attacks. For a brief time, Republicans succeeded in working with Democrats to combat terrorism. The nation re-affirmed their support for the Bush agenda when Republicans gained seats in the 2002 midterms. Bush was re-elected narrowly over John Kerry. After this, Bush's handling of the War in Iraq began to be questioned. Voters rejected the Republican party resoundingly in the 2006 midterms, setting the stage for a Democratic win in 2008. Now Bush is viewed as an almost "lame-duck" president, and much of his conservative agenda is in jeopardy.

In 2008, voters will go to the polls to elect a new President, a new Congress, and Governors.

The timeline will go by month. One post is equivalent to roughly a month. Multiple advanced posts will be used for election coverage.

[HarrisonL]

June 2007

Democratic Presidential Candidates

Hillary Clinton, US Senator from New York and Fmr First Lady
John Kerry, US Senator from Massachusetts
John Edwards, US Senator from North Carolina
Tom Daschle, US Senator from South Dakota
Tom Vilsack, Governor of Iowa
Max Sandlin, US Representative TX-1

Republican Presidential Candidates

Dick Cheney, Vice President of the United States
Mike Huckabee, Governor of Arkansas
John McCain, US Senator from Arizona

National Polls

Democratic

Clinton 18%
Daschle 14%
Kerry 10%
Edwards 7%
Vilsack 5%
Sandlin 3%

Republican

Cheney 24%
McCain 15%
Huckabee 11%

Iowa Polls

DEM

Vilsack 24%
Daschle 13%
Clinton 8%
Kerry 5%
Edwards 2%
Sandlin 1%

REP

Huckabee 23%
Cheney 20%
McCain 18%

All other percentages are undecided

Senators up in 2008 - Class 2

Alabama - (R) Jeff Sessions (1996)
Alaska - (R) Ted Stevens (1968 appointed)
Arkansas - (D) Mark Pryor (2002)
Colorado - (R) Wayne Allard (1996)
Delaware - (D) Joe Biden (1972)
Georgia - (R) Saxby Chambliss (2002)
Idaho - (R) Larry Craig (1990)
Iowa - (D) Tom Harkin (1984)
Kansas - (R) Pat Roberts (1996)
Kentucky - (R) Mitch McConnell (1984)
Louisiana - (D) Mary Landrieu (1996)
Maine - (R) Susan Collins (1996)
Massachusetts - (D) John Kerry (1984)
Michigan - (D) Carl Levin (1978)
Minnesota - (R) Norm Coleman (2002)
Mississippi - (R) Thad Cochran (1978)
Montana - (D) Max Baucus (1978)
Nebraska - (R) Chuck Hagel (1996)
New Hampshire - (R) John E. Sununu (2002)
New Jersey - (D) Frank Lautenberg (1982)
New Mexico - (R) Pete Domenici (1972)
North Carolina - (R) Elizabeth Dole (2002)
Oklahoma - (R) Jim Inhofe (1994 special)
Oregon - (R) Gordon Smith (1996)
Rhode Island - (D) Jack Reed (1996)
South Carolina - (R) Lindsey Graham (2002)
South Dakota - (R) John Thune (2002)
Tennessee - (R) Lamar Alexander (2002)
Texas - (R) John Cornyn (2002)
Virginia - (R) John Warner (1978)
West Virginia - (D) Jay Rockefeller (2008)
Wyoming - (R) Mike Enzi (1996)

[andjey]

Looks interesting. So, in your TL Tom Daschle won reelection in 2004?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Looks interesting, just one request. Can you please use Atlas Colors . Anyway looking forward to this TL

[HarrisonL]

Looks interesting. So, in your TL Tom Daschle won reelection in 2004?

Yes. John Thune beat Tim Johnson in this timeline. This left Daschle against Bill Janklow, who ran a mediocre campaign and narrowly lost in 2004.

[HarrisonL]

Looks interesting, just one request. Can you please use Atlas Colors . Anyway looking forward to this TL

Thanks, I'll be working on it continuously over the next few weeks.

[HarrisonL]

July 2007

Democratic Primary News

CBS Breaking News

"Today Senator Jon Tester, the Freshman Democratic Senator from Montana, announced that he would be running for President in the Democratic Primary. Tester becomes the seventh Democrat to enter the race, and was not expected to run by any major pundits."

Senator Clinton is continuing her extensive campaign in Iowa. Despite leading the most recent national polls for the nomination, Clinton still remains in a sluggish third in Iowa. Her third place spot in Iowa polls can likely be attributed to second place finisher Tom Daschle, the Senate Majority Leader, and Tom Vilsack, the Governor of Iowa. Vilsack is in 5th place nationally, but holds an 11% lead over the nearest competition in his home state of Iowa. Daschle finished second in the most recent Iowa polling, likely due to his grassroots message, and the proximity between Iowa and his home state of South Dakota.

- Clinton announced that 5 new ads would be reaching Iowan Media Markets in an effort to connect Clinton's pro-growth economic policies to her husband's tenure in the latter half of the 1990s, when the economy was at its peak.
- Clinton has opened 12 more offices in Iowa, and is particularly focused on making in-roads into urban areas like Des Moines, where her campaign believes she can run up enough votes to overwhelm Vilsack's popularity with rural Democrats and farmers.

Tom Daschle says his strength in Iowa is due to his, "Rural connections." Governor Vilsack has been fighting hard to maintain his "native son" lead in the Iowa Caucus, and has aggressively attacked Daschle for his supposed "lack of connection to his home state." Daschle criticized Vilsack for directly quoting some of his former Senate opponent, Bill Janklow's, campaign material.

Daschle has also beefed up his campaign in other Midwestern states like Michigan and Minnesota, where he believes he can appeal more to the working class than any other candidate.

John Kerry has begun to pull resources out of Iowa to place them in New Hampshire, a state where he remains the favourite in Democratic Primary Polls, despite his sluggish performance in national polls. Although some Democrats are rallying behind the 2004 nominee's second bid, most Democrats believe a change is needed in the candidate mold to win the 2008 election.

[HarrisonL]

July 2007

Republican Primary News

Senator John McCain's campaign continues to gain momentum in New England where Moderate Republicans are wary of Bush's Vice President, Dick Cheney, and his campaign for President. McCain and Cheney share similar stances on Foreign Policy issues, such as the Iraq War, but disagree on issues like Civil Unions, Campaign Finance Reform, and Government Regulation of Banking. Meanwhile, the third candidate in the race, Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee holds the Conservative faction of the party in his hands. His religious upbringing has led him to run a campaign mostly based on Social Conservatism, Laissez-Faire economic policies, and a populist stance on Foreign policy.

Gallup Polling conducted polls asking prospective Republican voters nationwide on their approval/disapproval of the three Republican candidates. They coupled this data with various demographics and political leanings.

Candidate Name           Electorate  Race Gender McCain or Bush in 2000   App Disapp Und


Huckabee, Mike           White      Male           Bush 72-28%                56%          23%         21%
                                 White      Female        Bush  55-45%               46%          37%         17%
                                  Black       Male          McCain 60-40%             54%          35%         11%
                                  Black      Female        McCain 65-35%             47%          39%         14%
                                 Latino       Male          Bush 62-38%                44%           45%         11%
                                 Latino      Female         Bush 58-42%               39%           47%        14%

McCain, John              White      Male           Bush 72-28%                52%          25%         23%
                                 White      Female        Bush  55-45%               49%          33%         18%
                                  Black       Male          McCain 60-40%             55%          37%          8%
                                  Black      Female        McCain 65-35%             48%          36%         16%
                                 Latino       Male          Bush 62-38%                47%           25%         28%
                                 Latino      Female         Bush 58-42%               44%           25%        31%

Cheney, Dick              White      Male           Bush 72-28%                55%          35%          10%
                                 White      Female        Bush  55-45%               43%          42%         15%
                                  Black       Male          McCain 60-40%             48%          39%         13%
                                  Black      Female        McCain 65-35%             44%          39%         17%
                                 Latino       Male          Bush 62-38%                49%           30%         21%
                                 Latino      Female         Bush 58-42%               48%           37%        15%


As White voters compos the majority of the Republican electorate, especially in early Rust-Belt and Northern Primary contests, the Republican candidates are trying their hardest to appeal to that specific voting block.
                                   

[HarrisonL]

Senators up in 2008 - Class 2
(Declared Candidates in Each Race) (To be updated)

Alabama - (R) Jeff Sessions (1996)

(R) Jeff Sessions, incumbent Senator
(D) Vivian Davis Figures, State Senator
(D) Ron Sparks, Alabama Commissioner of Agriculture
(D) Johnny Swanson, Retired Army Veteran

Alaska - (R) Ted Stevens (1968 appointed) Retiring from the Senate

(R) Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska
(R) Joe Miller, Retired Army Veteran
(R) David Cuddy, State Representative
(R) Rick Sikma, Pastor
(D) Mark Begich, Mayor of Anchorage
(D) Ray Metcalfe, Former State Representative

Arkansas - (D) Mark Pryor (2002)

(D) Mark Pryor, incumbent Senator

Colorado - (R) Wayne Allard (1996)

(R) Wayne Allaard, incumbent Senator
(R) Ken Buck, District Attorney for Weld County
(D) Tom Strickland, District Attorney for Colorado

Delaware - (D) Joe Biden (1972)

(D) Joe Biden, incumbent Senator
(R) Christine O'Donnell, Conservative Political Commentator

Georgia - (R) Saxby Chambliss (2002)

(R) Saxby Chambliss, incumbent Senator
(D) Vernon Jones, DeKalb County CEO
(D) Roger Kahn, Fmr Dem nominee for GA-11 in 2002

Idaho - (R) Larry Craig (1990) Incumbent Retiring from the Senate

(R) Jim Risch, Lt. Governor of Idaho
(R) Mike Simpson, US Rep ID-2
(D) Larry LaRocco, Fmr US Rep ID-1

Illinois - (D) Dick Durbin (1996)

(D) Dick Durbin, incumbent Senator
(R) Steve Sauerberg, Physician from LaGrange County, IL

Iowa - (D) Tom Harkin (1984)

(D) Tom Harkin, incumbent Senator
(R) Jim Leach, US Rep IA-2
(R) Chris Reed, Small Business Owner

Kansas - (R) Pat Roberts (1996)

(R) Pat Roberts, incumbent Senator
(D) Jim Slattery, Fmr US Rep KS-2

Kentucky - (R) Mitch McConnell (1984)

(R) Mitch McConnell, incumbent Senator
(D) Bruce Lunsford, US Army Veteran and Businessman
(D) Scotty Baesler, Fmr US Rep KY-6

Louisiana - (D) Mary Landrieu (1996)

(D) Mary Landrieu, incumbent Senator
(R) John Neely Kennedy, Louisiana State Treasurer

Maine - (R) Susan Collins (1996)

(R) Susan Collins, incumbent Senator
(D) Tom Allen, US Rep ME-1

Massachusetts - (D) John Kerry (1984)

(R) Jerome Corsi, Conservative Commentator

Michigan - (D) Carl Levin (1978) Incumbent retiring from the Senate

(D) David Bonior, US Rep MI-10
(R) Mike Rogers, US Rep MI-8
(R) Jack Hoogendyk, State Representative
(R) Bill Schuette, Judge MI 4th District Court of Appeals

Minnesota - (R) Norm Coleman (2002)

(R) Norm Coleman, incumbent Senator
(D) Al Franken, Comedian
(D) Collin Peterson, US Rep MN-7

Mississippi - (R) Thad Cochran (1978)


Montana - (D) Max Baucus (1978)
Nebraska - (R) Chuck Hagel (1996)
New Hampshire - (R) John E. Sununu (2002)
New Jersey - (D) Frank Lautenberg (1982)
New Mexico - (R) Pete Domenici (1972)
North Carolina - (R) Elizabeth Dole (2002)
Oklahoma - (R) Jim Inhofe (1994 special)
Oregon - (R) Gordon Smith (1996)
Rhode Island - (D) Jack Reed (1996)
South Carolina - (R) Lindsey Graham (2002)
South Dakota - (R) John Thune (2002)
Tennessee - (R) Lamar Alexander (2002)
Texas - (R) John Cornyn (2002)
Virginia - (R) John Warner (1978)
West Virginia - (D) Jay Rockefeller (2008)
Wyoming - (R) Mike Enzi (1996)