Canadian by-elections, 2020

[Continential]

If this happens, the Liberals can attack the BQ for wanting to hold a election during quarantine.

[Hatman 🍁]

York Centre is probably the most favourable to Tories of 416 seats so if the Tories are going to win any seats in 416, this would be one of the first to fall.  By same token looking at current polls, pretty sure Liberals would easily hold this at the moment.  Nonetheless if Tories want to be competitive in the GTA, this is pretty much a must win and if they cannot win here or at least come close that shows how big a trouble they are in and that problem runs much deeper than leader.

Another one is Surrey South as Tracy Redies in BC has resigned.  This is normally a safe BC Liberal seat so in normal times it would be an easy BC Liberal win.  But with Horgan having around a 15 point lead provincially, it might be closer than normal and upset while not likely is at least plausible.  Certainly if NDP does win or even comes close, that is sign they are on track for a landslide and maybe even enough that BC Liberals should consider changing leaders.

Redies' riding is actually Surrey-White Rock. I very much doubt the NDP can pick that riding up. Maybe if the Conservatives split the vote.

[King of Kensington]

I think the Israel issue has been effectively neutralized, which is the best weapon the Tories have in York Centre (plus it's a generally Liberal riding).  MacKay would be foolish to run there since there's so many better options available.  

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/DonMartinCTV/status/1295503949064294400

[Hatman 🍁]

Almost certainly a Liberal hold. They love to run star candidates there. However, the riding has good demos for the NDP, and it's full of "promiscuous progressives". It went NDP by 26 points in the last provincial election. Still, they would need a star candidate, and throw everything at the riding to pick it off.

[mileslunn]

Almost certainly a Liberal hold. They love to run star candidates there. However, the riding has good demos for the NDP, and it's full of "promiscuous progressives". It went NDP by 26 points in the last provincial election. Still, they would need a star candidate, and throw everything at the riding to pick it off.

I think as long as Liberals are ahead of NDP, they should easily hold this.  Only flips if NDP pulls ahead of Liberals which I don't see happening anytime soon.

[mileslunn]

I think the Israel issue has been effectively neutralized, which is the best weapon the Tories have in York Centre (plus it's a generally Liberal riding).  MacKay would be foolish to run there since there's so many better options available.  

MacKay would be foolish although this riding did vote PC in 2018 and got over 50% too so it is one of the more favourable ridings for Tories in York Centre.  Nonetheless Tories would have to be ahead in Ontario, which they aren't now before they have a realistic chance of flipping this.  But if they want to bring Carney in, Toronto Centre is probably a safer riding than York Centre.

[adma]

Almost certainly a Liberal hold. They love to run star candidates there. However, the riding has good demos for the NDP, and it's full of "promiscuous progressives". It went NDP by 26 points in the last provincial election. Still, they would need a star candidate, and throw everything at the riding to pick it off.

I think as long as Liberals are ahead of NDP, they should easily hold this.  Only flips if NDP pulls ahead of Liberals which I don't see happening anytime soon.

Even if the NDP can't pull ahead of the Libs *nationally*, they can pull ahead in spot situations like a byelection--think of Dan Heap in Spadina in 1981.  In any event, with the excision of Rosedale in the last redistribution, the NDP is now pretty solidly entrenched as the primary nominal opposition to the Libs in TC--and that psychology (plus provincial coattails from Suze Morrison) can mean a lot.

Though there is a twist; TC is where reported federal Green leadership frontrunner Annamie Paul ran in 2019 (and where *another* Green contender for power, Glen Murray, previously sat as Liberal MPP).

[DC Al Fine]

Almost certainly a Liberal hold. They love to run star candidates there. However, the riding has good demos for the NDP, and it's full of "promiscuous progressives". It went NDP by 26 points in the last provincial election. Still, they would need a star candidate, and throw everything at the riding to pick it off.

I think as long as Liberals are ahead of NDP, they should easily hold this.  Only flips if NDP pulls ahead of Liberals which I don't see happening anytime soon.

Even if the NDP can't pull ahead of the Libs *nationally*, they can pull ahead in spot situations like a byelection--think of Dan Heap in Spadina in 1981.  In any event, with the excision of Rosedale in the last redistribution, the NDP is now pretty solidly entrenched as the primary nominal opposition to the Libs in TC--and that psychology (plus provincial coattails from Suze Morrison) can mean a lot.

Though there is a twist; TC is where reported federal Green leadership frontrunner Annamie Paul ran in 2019 (and where *another* Green contender for power, Glen Murray, previously sat as Liberal MPP).

Given Canada's propensity for wild swings even in general elections,  there are very few seats I would call safe in a by-election. If the Tories can nearly lose Brandon-Souris in a by-election after winning it by 40%, the NDP picking off Toronto Centre isn't that much of a stretch, to say nothing of the Tories making up a measly 14 point deficit in York Centre.

[brucejoel99]

Almost certainly a Liberal hold. They love to run star candidates there. However, the riding has good demos for the NDP, and it's full of "promiscuous progressives". It went NDP by 26 points in the last provincial election. Still, they would need a star candidate, and throw everything at the riding to pick it off.

The bolded presents an issue in & of itself: given the party's current financial situation, they might not even be in a position to throw money at this seat in an attempt to win it (especially in a minority government situation, where much more contestable seats could be up for grabs in a year or 2).

In any event, though, Trudeau presumably won't call these by-elections (Toronto Centre & York Centre) for a while. Since he has 6 months to do so, he'd be smart to wait until the current scandal dies down a little bit.

[DC Al Fine]

I'd also throw out there, that there's a non-negligible chance that we'll be going to the polls before the six months is up, at which point, the whole discussion is moot.

There will be a new Speech From the Throne/confidence vote when Parliament reconvenes, and there are rumours that Trudeau might use the reset and need for a plan for recovery to introduce an electioneering budget and ask for a new mandate.

[CumbrianLefty]

Trudeau calling a snap election, you say? Can't see how that could possibly go wrong.......

[Estrella]

Trudeau calling a snap election, you say? Can't see how that could possibly go wrong.......

I can actually understand what his strategy probably is: while the pandemic bump has worn off, Tories are still leaderless (well, they have Scheer, but he's even more of a joke now) and the economic downturn has caused people to become more worried about being able to pay bills and such stuff, in turn becoming more hesitant about supporting Conservatives or leaving Trudeau in an unstable minority. Things like climate change are important, of course, but if Trudeau has smart advisors who tell him to run a relentless bread-and-butter campaign, he could pull it off - provided that he can run such a campaign without making himself look like a Hello Fellow Working Classes idiot.

Not that polls are worth much even if we're really six months away from an election, but the polling average is something like Libs in mid-thirties, Cons in low thirties, Dippers in high teens and Bloc and Greens in high single digits - basically no change since the election. I can imagine him squeaking in with a narrow majority - for a complete crapshoot, let's say with numbers like 37%—33%—14%—6%—6%. _{alternatively, Insane Troll Logic: because 2015=1968 and 2019=1972, then obviously 2021=1974.}

[MaxQue]

Trudeau calling a snap election, you say? Can't see how that could possibly go wrong.......

I can actually understand what his strategy probably is: while the pandemic bump has worn off, Tories are still leaderless (well, they have Scheer, but he's even more of a joke now) and the economic downturn has caused people to become more worried about being able to pay bills and such stuff, in turn becoming more hesitant about supporting Conservatives or leaving Trudeau in an unstable minority. Things like climate change are important, of course, but if Trudeau has smart advisors who tell him to run a relentless bread-and-butter campaign, he could pull it off - provided that he can run such a campaign without making himself look like a Hello Fellow Working Classes idiot.

Not that polls are worth much even if we're really six months away from an election, but the polling average is something like Libs in mid-thirties, Cons in low thirties, Dippers in high teens and Bloc and Greens in high single digits - basically no change since the election. I can imagine him squeaking in with a narrow majority - for a complete crapshoot, let's say with numbers like 37%—33%—14%—6%—6%. _{alternatively, Insane Troll Logic: because 2015=1968 and 2019=1972, then obviously 2021=1974.}

Conservatives are picking their new leader on Sunday.

[Estrella]

Trudeau calling a snap election, you say? Can't see how that could possibly go wrong.......

I can actually understand what his strategy probably is: while the pandemic bump has worn off, Tories are still leaderless (well, they have Scheer, but he's even more of a joke now) and the economic downturn has caused people to become more worried about being able to pay bills and such stuff, in turn becoming more hesitant about supporting Conservatives or leaving Trudeau in an unstable minority. Things like climate change are important, of course, but if Trudeau has smart advisors who tell him to run a relentless bread-and-butter campaign, he could pull it off - provided that he can run such a campaign without making himself look like a Hello Fellow Working Classes idiot.

Not that polls are worth much even if we're really six months away from an election, but the polling average is something like Libs in mid-thirties, Cons in low thirties, Dippers in high teens and Bloc and Greens in high single digits - basically no change since the election. I can imagine him squeaking in with a narrow majority - for a complete crapshoot, let's say with numbers like 37%—33%—14%—6%—6%. _{alternatively, Insane Troll Logic: because 2015=1968 and 2019=1972, then obviously 2021=1974.}

Conservatives are picking their new leader on Sunday.

Oh, it's on already? I guess that Trudeau should hope that it's O'Toole then (though it's not like Mackay or anyone else is great choice for the Tories, IMO). 

[King of Kensington]

Almost certainly a Liberal hold. They love to run star candidates there. However, the riding has good demos for the NDP, and it's full of "promiscuous progressives". It went NDP by 26 points in the last provincial election. Still, they would need a star candidate, and throw everything at the riding to pick it off.

It's been a safe landing spot for patrician Liberals since 1993 (Bill Graham, Bob Rae, Chrystia Freeland, Bill Morneau).

It's the kind of riding that "seems" like a natural fit given its large population of tenants, social housing residents, students etc.  It's one of the most anti-Conservative seats in the country.

If the NDP was the "hegemonic" party of low income workers, minorities and inner cities Toronto Centre would be an NDP stronghold, like the non-wealthy Inner London seats are for Labour.   But it ain't.

Rosedale is no longer in the riding, which has made the riding a better target.  Suze Morrison did extraordinarily well provincially (albeit in an OLP collapse) and it was basically tied with University-Rosedale for 4th best result in Toronto in last year's federal election.  But still a big hill to climb.

[Dipper Josh]

Low income seats in Toronto-Centre are the future of the NDP, if it stays low income. I think the NDP should absolutely go all out to try and win this seat because it may give them a huge momentum boost heading into the fall election.

They would need to recruit Kristyn Wong-Tam. I know it's unlikely she gives up a seat on council to run for a party that may not even have any power if the Liberals win another majority. Which is precisely why they need to roll out the red carpet for her. Promise her they're going to spend more money on the upcoming federal election than 2019. Promise her Minister of Transport in the event of a coalition government. Last but not least, She's only 49 and Jagmeet ain't gonna be around forever.

Realistically though, the odds the NDP even tries to recruit her are probably low.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh yeah, Toronto's wards have the same boundaries as the federal ridings, so you can compare municipal results too. Wong-Tam won over 50% in 2018, and defeated a well known Liberal (George Smitherman) in the process. HOWEVER, the same ward voted for John Tory over progressive challenger Jennifer Keesmaat (who was endorsed by Wong-Tam), 51%-36% in the mayoral election. The area always seems to vote for New Democrats on city council. Before 2018, Pam McConnell represented the area, and was very popular. 

[King of Kensington]

Low income seats in Toronto-Centre are the future of the NDP, if it stays low income.

Toronto Centre has a bifurcated demographic.  Lots of condo-dwelling professionals, but less dominated by this demographic than Spadina-Fort York.  For example 56% have university degrees but 31% are low income, the highest of any Toronto riding.  71% are renters, again the highest in Toronto.

[King of Kensington]

Oh yeah, Toronto's wards have the same boundaries as the federal ridings, so you can compare municipal results too. Wong-Tam won over 50% in 2018, and defeated a well known Liberal (George Smitherman) in the process. HOWEVER, the same ward voted for John Tory over progressive challenger Jennifer Keesmaat (who was endorsed by Wong-Tam), 51%-36% in the mayoral election. The area always seems to vote for New Democrats on city council. Before 2018, Pam McConnell represented the area, and was very popular. 

The base of the municipal left is the Annex and inner west end.  Hence Jennifer Keesmaat's best wards were Davenport, University-Rosedale and Parkdale-High Park, same was true for Olivia Chow. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh yeah, Toronto's wards have the same boundaries as the federal ridings, so you can compare municipal results too. Wong-Tam won over 50% in 2018, and defeated a well known Liberal (George Smitherman) in the process. HOWEVER, the same ward voted for John Tory over progressive challenger Jennifer Keesmaat (who was endorsed by Wong-Tam), 51%-36% in the mayoral election. The area always seems to vote for New Democrats on city council. Before 2018, Pam McConnell represented the area, and was very popular. 

The base of the municipal left is the Annex and inner west end.  Hence Jennifer Keesmaat's best wards were Davenport, University-Rosedale and Parkdale-High Park, same was true for Olivia Chow. 

I'm well aware. But, the left still wins Toronto Centre in council elections.

[King of Kensington]

Yes, that's true.  And Tory won every single ward last time (but would have lost 3 out of 44 under the old system), as it was only a semi-competitive race.

[King of Kensington]

Don't see Kristyn Wong-Tam going federal where she has little chance of winning.  She has mayoral aspirations.

[Dipper Josh]

Don't see Kristyn Wong-Tam going federal where she has little chance of winning.  She has mayoral aspirations.

She won't but she could win. She's beloved in her ward and a 13 point swing in a by-election with an outgoing scandal ridden Liberal MP? Winnable.

I don't think the NDP is strong enough to win it with anyone else but I think they have it with her.

[DL]

Don't see Kristyn Wong-Tam going federal where she has little chance of winning.  She has mayoral aspirations.

KWT was courted by the Ontario NDP in 2018 and she refused - and they ended up winning Toronto Centre easily with an unknown candidate