Canadian by-elections, 2020

[DC Al Fine]

NS by-elections are today.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1237538505015717891

[DistingFlyer]

Two polling stations left to come in each riding now; both pointed to their winners from the very first poll to come in from each, but of course the specific percentages have moved around a little.

A big difference in swing between the two seats:

Cape Breton Centre
NDP - 43.7% (-0%)
Lib - 30.2% (-3%)
PC - 25.0% (+2%)
GP - 1.1% (+1%)

Truro - Bible Hill - Millbrook - Salmon River
PC - 48.2% (+16%)
Lib - 24.9% (+1%)
NDP - 17.9% (-26%)
GP - 8.4% (+8%)
Atl - 0.7% (+1%)

[DistingFlyer]

All polls in now:

Cape Breton Centre
NDP - 2731 (42.9%) (-0.9%)
Lib - 1991 (31.3%) (-2.3%)
PC - 1567 (24.6%) (+2.0%)
GP - 76 (1.2%) (+1.2%)
Swing - 0.7% from Lib to NDP

Truro
PC - 2922 (51.4%) (+19.4%)
Lib - 1385 (24.4%) (+0.3%)
NDP - 925 (16.3%) (-27.7%)
GP - 398 (7.0%) (+7.0%)
Atl - 55 (1.0%) (+1.0%)
Swing - 23.6% from NDP to PC

[Hatman 🍁]

Truro was more of a Lenore Zann seat (which used to be a Tory seat), so not a bad night for the NDP, considering they lost Cape Breton Centre in the 2015 by-election. The result there was nearly identical to the general election. Good job recruiting the local councillor as their candidate.

[DistingFlyer]

Truro was more of a Lenore Zann seat (which used to be a Tory seat), so not a bad night for the NDP, considering they lost Cape Breton Centre in the 2015 by-election. The result there was nearly identical to the general election. Good job recruiting the local councillor as their candidate.

Yes, the candidates themselves make a lot of difference in NS elections; I wasn't sure if the Tories would take Truro or if Zann would help the Grits get it, so the size of their win there is a bit surprising. Not a shock that the NDP would hold Cape Breton Centre, as it's been their most consistently loyal constituency over the years, but that their vote should hold up so well (especially given, as you say, the 2015 by-election loss and that same Liberal having another go at it) is not bad at all.

[DC Al Fine]

Truro was more of a Lenore Zann seat (which used to be a Tory seat), so not a bad night for the NDP, considering they lost Cape Breton Centre in the 2015 by-election. The result there was nearly identical to the general election. Good job recruiting the local councillor as their candidate.

Pretty much the same pattern we've seen since the 2009 win. NDP regressing to the mean in their non-traditional seats as their MLA's retire or are defeated, while holding up very well in their traditional urban Halifax + industrial Cape Breton base.

[Hatman 🍁]

Tomorrow's municipal by-election in Montreal has been cancelled.

[Hatman 🍁]

the by-elections in NB (as well as the NB municipal elections) have been postponed

[Hatman 🍁]

The Cumberland by-election on Ottawa City Council has been scheduled for October 5. It was vacated when Stephen Blais ran successfully for a seat at Queen's Park.

This is the first local by-election that I'm aware of in Canada since the pandemic started.

[Hatman 🍁]

There were some territorial by-elections scheduled for Friday in Nunavut, but they didn't go ahead because the candidates in both ridings were acclaimed. Nunavut has yet to have any confirmed COVID cases. There will be a mayoral by-election in Pangnirtung on August 24, so that might be the first post corona electoral event in Canada?

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/ipoliticsca/status/1290758857262850048

[mileslunn]

York Centre is probably the most favourable to Tories of 416 seats so if the Tories are going to win any seats in 416, this would be one of the first to fall.  By same token looking at current polls, pretty sure Liberals would easily hold this at the moment.  Nonetheless if Tories want to be competitive in the GTA, this is pretty much a must win and if they cannot win here or at least come close that shows how big a trouble they are in and that problem runs much deeper than leader.

Another one is Surrey South as Tracy Redies in BC has resigned.  This is normally a safe BC Liberal seat so in normal times it would be an easy BC Liberal win.  But with Horgan having around a 15 point lead provincially, it might be closer than normal and upset while not likely is at least plausible.  Certainly if NDP does win or even comes close, that is sign they are on track for a landslide and maybe even enough that BC Liberals should consider changing leaders.

[adma]

York Centre is probably the most favourable to Tories of 416 seats so if the Tories are going to win any seats in 416, this would be one of the first to fall.  By same token looking at current polls, pretty sure Liberals would easily hold this at the moment.  Nonetheless if Tories want to be competitive in the GTA, this is pretty much a must win and if they cannot win here or at least come close that shows how big a trouble they are in and that problem runs much deeper than leader.

Though it's a very qualified form of "most favourable", attached almost entirely to the Jewish rightward swing over the past generation--keeping in mind that prior to said swing, YC was "nuclear Liberal" (staying Grit in the 1984 blowout, going 70% in the Chretien years, etc), and that the "natural condition" of everything W of the Allen Road remains Liberal a la Humber River-Black Creek.  And in recent years, the Jewish swing's been matched by a Chinese-Canadian rightward swing, which is why the 2019 Lib-Con margins were marginally narrower in both Willowdale and Scarborough-Agincourt.  (It didn't help that the Cons' 2019 YC nominee was a "Scheer socon" rather than a Jewish-community figurehead.)  The "diversifying" effect of gentrification and urban intensification also doesn't necessarily work in the Cons' favour, either.

It *might* be interesting, though, if a presumptive-party-leader Peter MacKay uses this as a springboard back into Parliament--don't know what his "friend of Israel" credentials are...

[mileslunn]

York Centre is probably the most favourable to Tories of 416 seats so if the Tories are going to win any seats in 416, this would be one of the first to fall.  By same token looking at current polls, pretty sure Liberals would easily hold this at the moment.  Nonetheless if Tories want to be competitive in the GTA, this is pretty much a must win and if they cannot win here or at least come close that shows how big a trouble they are in and that problem runs much deeper than leader.

Though it's a very qualified form of "most favourable", attached almost entirely to the Jewish rightward swing over the past generation--keeping in mind that prior to said swing, YC was "nuclear Liberal" (staying Grit in the 1984 blowout, going 70% in the Chretien years, etc), and that the "natural condition" of everything W of the Allen Road remains Liberal a la Humber River-Black Creek.  And in recent years, the Jewish swing's been matched by a Chinese-Canadian rightward swing, which is why the 2019 Lib-Con margins were marginally narrower in both Willowdale and Scarborough-Agincourt.  (It didn't help that the Cons' 2019 YC nominee was a "Scheer socon" rather than a Jewish-community figurehead.)  The "diversifying" effect of gentrification and urban intensification also doesn't necessarily work in the Cons' favour, either.

It *might* be interesting, though, if a presumptive-party-leader Peter MacKay uses this as a springboard back into Parliament--don't know what his "friend of Israel" credentials are...

I would still say this riding overall leans Liberal, but no 416 riding is exactly Tory friendly, but point being if they are to win seats in 416 which they pretty much will need to if they want to form government, this would be one of the first to fall.  As for Peter MacKay, my guess is one of the MPs who supported him in Alberta or Saskatchewan steps aside as running here too big a risk since if he loses, then his leadership is in jeopardy, see John Tory 2009.

[DL]

I wonder if the fabled Mark Carney might be brought home to run for the Liberals in YC? On the Tory side it could also be a place for Leslyn Lewis to go for a seat

[DC Al Fine]

I wonder if the fabled Mark Carney might be brought home to run for the Liberals in YC? On the Tory side it could also be a place for Leslyn Lewis to go for a seat

As much as I'd love to get Leslyn Lewis into parliament, she'd be a pretty bad fit for the seat, like our last candidate. I'd stick her somewhere in the northern GTA or maybr Scarborough Agincourt if we limit the options to Toronto proper.

[adma]

I wonder if the fabled Mark Carney might be brought home to run for the Liberals in YC? On the Tory side it could also be a place for Leslyn Lewis to go for a seat

As much as I'd love to get Leslyn Lewis into parliament, she'd be a pretty bad fit for the seat, like our last candidate. I'd stick her somewhere in the northern GTA or maybr Scarborough Agincourt if we limit the options to Toronto proper.

She *could* go over well with the Ford National nonwhite-ethnoburbans in the Downsview end of the seat--or at least, that'd be the Cons' alibi for running her there.

Personally, I think either the Mississauga-western or ScarbDurham-eastern GTA would be a better bet than the north for a candidate like her.

[DL]

There has been remarkably little discussion of Peter McKay’s lack of a seat in the House of Commons. Has he been asked if he would force a Tory MP to quit and force a byelelction right away to get into Parliament? Has he made any commitment to go back to his old seat in Nova Scotia?

When Jagmeet Singh was running for the NDP leadership his lack of a seat was constantly raised and he kept having to answer questions about. Why don’t I ever see this issue come up with regard to McKay?

[mileslunn]

There has been remarkably little discussion of Peter McKay’s lack of a seat in the House of Commons. Has he been asked if he would force a Tory MP to quit and force a byelelction right away to get into Parliament? Has he made any commitment to go back to his old seat in Nova Scotia?

When Jagmeet Singh was running for the NDP leadership his lack of a seat was constantly raised and he kept having to answer questions about. Why don’t I ever see this issue come up with regard to McKay?

He has promised to run in Central Nova next election, but yeah where he will get next seat is a question, but my guess is one of the MPs in Alberta or Saskatchewan step aside for him or maybe even in rural Manitoba or Bob Zimmer in Northeast BC.  While Rural Ontario is generally fairly safe, probably wants to avoid a repeat of what happened to John Tory in 2009.

[adma]

 While Rural Ontario is generally fairly safe, probably wants to avoid a repeat of what happened to John Tory in 2009.

Next door to the aforementioned York Centre, Peter Kent in Thornhill is getting up there in years.  And just because so-and-so happened to John Tory in 2009 shouldn't ward off *all* Con contenders in Ontario.

Though yes, a seat in the West might bolster MacKay's cachet in a region where he's been regarded as "tragically Eastern"...

[DC Al Fine]

There has been remarkably little discussion of Peter McKay’s lack of a seat in the House of Commons. Has he been asked if he would force a Tory MP to quit and force a byelelction right away to get into Parliament? Has he made any commitment to go back to his old seat in Nova Scotia?

When Jagmeet Singh was running for the NDP leadership his lack of a seat was constantly raised and he kept having to answer questions about. Why don’t I ever see this issue come up with regard to McKay?

He has promised to run in Central Nova next election, but yeah where he will get next seat is a question, but my guess is one of the MPs in Alberta or Saskatchewan step aside for him or maybe even in rural Manitoba or Bob Zimmer in Northeast BC.  While Rural Ontario is generally fairly safe, probably wants to avoid a repeat of what happened to John Tory in 2009.

That might explain why Sean Fraser is considering a run for the  NS Liberal leadership...

[DL]

The last thing the Liberals want is a vacancy in Central Nova perfectly times for McKay to win a Liberal seat and make a grand entrance to parliament from his old Central Nova seat

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/IvisonJ/status/1292853681805762561

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/paulvieira/status/1293561581037654018?s=20

Not a by-election, but I think this is the place to post it? I have a hard time seeing this one passing given the NDP are strapped for cash, the Tories have leadership issues, and the BQ might withdraw their proposal if their Liberal targets end up favoring the dissolution.