Rate Texas State House District 28 Special GE Runoff 2020 Today
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Poll
Question: Rate Texas State House District 28 Special GE Runoff 2020 Today
#1
Safe R
#2
Likely R
#3
Lean R
#4
Tilt R
#5
Tilt D
#6
Lean D
#7
Likely D
#8
Safe D
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Partisan results

Author Topic: Rate Texas State House District 28 Special GE Runoff 2020 Today  (Read 529 times)
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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E: -1.48, S: -1.83

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« on: January 28, 2020, 01:40:30 PM »
Yeah, apparently people are making a big deal out of this Houston suburbs seat, but with a Trump +10 Cruz +3 and not a good jungle result, I have it likely R, 55-45 ish GOP win.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2020, 02:25:51 PM »
Early vote was like 53-30-17 R-D-I

I think R wins by 7-9
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2020, 02:42:56 PM »
Quote from: marty on January 28, 2020, 02:25:51 PM
Early vote was like 53-30-17 R-D-I

I think R wins by 7-9

How do they know that? There is no party registration in Texas.
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Gracile
gracile
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Junior Chimp
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E: -8.00, S: -7.65

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« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2020, 03:03:20 PM »
Lean R, but closer to Likely R. I think this could be closer than expected, but this seat profiles as a place where its low-propensity voters are heavily Democratic - so I think there will be somewhat of a dropoff in the number of Democratic voters relative to Republicans overall.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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E: -6.06, S: -8.70

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« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2020, 07:40:50 PM »
Quote from: Mr.Phips on January 28, 2020, 02:42:56 PM
Quote from: marty on January 28, 2020, 02:25:51 PM
Early vote was like 53-30-17 R-D-I

I think R wins by 7-9

How do they know that? There is no party registration in Texas.

Primary voting history. Here are the numbers if you're curious:
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

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« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2020, 07:52:17 PM »
Quote from: Senator ON Progressive on January 28, 2020, 07:40:50 PM
Quote from: Mr.Phips on January 28, 2020, 02:42:56 PM
Quote from: marty on January 28, 2020, 02:25:51 PM
Early vote was like 53-30-17 R-D-I

I think R wins by 7-9

How do they know that? There is no party registration in Texas.

Primary voting history. Here are the numbers if you're curious:


Oh, whoever's the dem running is f$cked.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2020, 08:00:05 PM »
GOP wins by 9% is my guess
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2020, 08:08:00 PM »
Gates by a tad over 3200 votes in the early vote (which is a 59-41 GOP margin)

He has this in the bag, unless there's a massive D surge on election day which seems wildly unlikely at best.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2020, 08:18:12 PM »
If Gates ovverperforms Trump, it's lights out for Beto O'Rourke's political credibility.  He's banked a lot of time on this race.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #9 on: January 28, 2020, 08:24:34 PM »
Quote from: libertpaulian on January 28, 2020, 08:18:12 PM
If Gates ovverperforms Trump, it's lights out for Beto O'Rourke's political credibility.  He's banked a lot of time on this race.

He never had much political credibility, and what little he did have is long gone.
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libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: January 28, 2020, 08:26:08 PM »
Quote from: Yellowhammer on January 28, 2020, 08:24:34 PM
Quote from: libertpaulian on January 28, 2020, 08:18:12 PM
If Gates ovverperforms Trump, it's lights out for Beto O'Rourke's political credibility.  He's banked a lot of time on this race.

He never had much political credibility, and what little he did have is long gone.
I'm talking within his own Democratic Party, not among the general public.
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