CA-UC Berkeley:Sanders 26 Warren 20 Biden 15 Buttigieg 7 Bloomberg 6 Klobuchar 5

[Mr. Morden]

UC Berkeley poll of California, conducted Jan. 15-21:

https://enewspaper.latimes.com/infinity/article_share.aspx?guid=70a5db2f-e52e-4e07-86a9-8f5be33dcc88

Sanders 26%
Warren 20%
Biden 15%
Buttigieg 7%
Bloomberg 6%
Klobuchar 5%
Yang 4%
Steyer 2%

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Holy moly, Sanders has a path

[Grumpier Than Thou]

You mean to tell me that Bernie Sanders, a socialist who nobody likes, could actually win this thing? Scandalous.

[Eraserhead]

Poll is slightly dated but cool.

[Sir Mohamed]

X Doubt


CA polling is even messier than IA, which is quite a thing. We're supposed to be between Sanders +6 (+11 over Biden) and Biden +10? Nah. Both these recent polls are outliers if you ask me. CA is a tossup or tilt Sanders for as of now. As I said before, I think the one coming out strongest of the February contests has an edge in CA.

[Cassandra]

It's happening!!

[Adam Griffin]

Sanders winning the largest state in the country - among an electorate more diverse than the national Democratic electorate? Not so fast - WOWs on Twitter say this revolution is CANCELLED.

[YE]

Sanders winning the largest state in the country - among an electorate more diverse than the national Democratic electorate? Not so fast - WOWs on Twitter say this revolution is CANCELLED.

One problem I could see is Biden benefiting from the media narrative that he won California but then a week later he’s overtaken by Sanders when said narrative has little upside.

[Pollster]

If Sanders wins California and Biden is inviable, the primary is over.

[DrScholl]

It's about delegates and the nomination is not decided based on who won the most states or who came in first in the biggest state. Sanders has to win big enough here to offset Biden's totals in southern states. Sanders did best in the rural north last time, so he could come in first simply by repeating that again. Biden could offset that by doing better in Southern California which favored Clinton in 2008 and 2016. If Sanders is doing poorly in Southern California, then coming in first statewide isn't going to mean very much in terms of delegates.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

It's about delegates and the nomination is not decided based on who won the most states or who came in first in the biggest state. Sanders has to win big enough here to offset Biden's totals in southern states. Sanders did best in the rural north last time, so he could come in first simply by repeating that again. Biden could offset that by doing better in Southern California which favored Clinton in 2008 and 2016. If Sanders is doing poorly in Southern California, then coming in first statewide isn't going to mean very much in terms of delegates.

I don't think the 2008/2016 comparison is useful. With his strength among Hispanics and younger voters I would be very surprised if SoCal isn't one of Sanders' best regions.

[DrScholl]

It's about delegates and the nomination is not decided based on who won the most states or who came in first in the biggest state. Sanders has to win big enough here to offset Biden's totals in southern states. Sanders did best in the rural north last time, so he could come in first simply by repeating that again. Biden could offset that by doing better in Southern California which favored Clinton in 2008 and 2016. If Sanders is doing poorly in Southern California, then coming in first statewide isn't going to mean very much in terms of delegates.

I don't think the 2008/2016 comparison is useful. With his strength among Hispanics and younger voters I would be very surprised if SoCal isn't one of Sanders' best regions.

Southern California also has lots of suburbanites and isn't as liberal some other parts of the state. Sanders' best region will be the rural North once again.

[We Live in Black and White]

If Sanders takes Cali, this thing is over. Like, that's not me talking as someone who dislikes Biden, that's just the mechanical reality of the primary and how it's been laid out.

[eric82oslo]

Biden is dead. Finally.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

If Sanders wins California and Biden is inviable, the primary is over.

Keep in mind that viability depends not just on statewide viability, but on viability within individual congressional districts.

There are 415 pledged delgates, 90 of which are determined statewide, 54 of which are PLEO (I think those are also statewide, but separate?) and 271 of which are assigned by Congressional district.

https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/CA-D

If statewide support is close to the 15% threshold, it will end up being over in a lot of CDs, so it is still possible to get quite a few delegates, although it depends on specifics.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I couldn’t ask for a better poll!

[ElectionsGuy]

If this poll is anywhere near accurate, Sanders will be very competitive with Biden as far as delegates go, as a ~10 point margin over Biden can make up for a few decent sized southern state loses. If Warren collapses further, that's even better for him, but California will probably be a strong(er) state for her.

Biden is dead. Finally.

Don't get ahead of yourself.

[HAnnA MArin County]

It's about delegates and the nomination is not decided based on who won the most states or who came in first in the biggest state. Sanders has to win big enough here to offset Biden's totals in southern states. Sanders did best in the rural north last time, so he could come in first simply by repeating that again. Biden could offset that by doing better in Southern California which favored Clinton in 2008 and 2016. If Sanders is doing poorly in Southern California, then coming in first statewide isn't going to mean very much in terms of delegates.

I don't think the 2008/2016 comparison is useful. With his strength among Hispanics and younger voters I would be very surprised if SoCal isn't one of Sanders' best regions.

Southern California also has lots of suburbanites and isn't as liberal some other parts of the state. Sanders' best region will be the rural North once again.

How do you think Bernie will do in Orange County? He won three cities in 2016: Anaheim (49.74%), Fullerton (51.63%), and Costa Mesa (54.44%). Does he win them again and/or does he manage to win anymore cities in OC?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Difference from their last poll (Nov 21-27)

Sanders       +2
Warren         -2
Biden           +1
Buttigieg       -5
Bloomberg    +4
Klobuchar     +2
Yang            +1
Steyer          +1
Undecided     +3



Regional breakdown (Rounded-up)

LA COUNTY
Sanders       30%
Warren        20%
Biden           15%
Buttigieg       5%
Bloomberg    4%
Yang             4%
Klobuchar      3%
Steyer           1%
Undecided     12%

SAN DIEGO COUNTY
Sanders       21%
Warren         20%
Biden           16%
Klobuchar     9%
Bloomberg    9%
Buttigieg       7%
Yang             4%
Steyer           4%
Undecided      8%

ORANGE COUNTY
Sanders       24%
Warren        17%
Biden           16%
Buttigieg      6%
Yang            6%
Bloomberg   5%
Klobuchar     4%
Steyer          2%
Undecided     16%

INLAND EMPIRE
Sanders       27%
Biden           20%
Warren        12%
Buttigieg      6%
Bloomberg   3%
Yang            3%
Steyer          3%
Klobuchar     3%
Undecided     18%

OTHER SOCAL
Sanders       24%
Buttigieg      22%
Warren        17%
Biden           14%
Klobuchar     9%
Bloomberg   5%
Yang            4%
Steyer          0%
Undecided     5%


CENTRAL VALLEY
Sanders       25%
Biden           20%
Warren        16%
Buttigieg      7%
Klobuchar     5%
Yang            4%
Bloomberg   4%
Steyer          1%
Undecided     15%

SF BAY
Sanders       25%
Warren        25%
Biden           11%
Buttigieg      9%
Bloomberg   7%
Klobuchar     6%
Yang            3%
Steyer          2%
Undecided     10%

OTHER NORCAL
Sanders       30%
Warren        18%
Biden           15%
Yang            6%
Buttigieg      3%
Klobuchar     3%
Steyer          3%
Bloomberg   2%
Undecided     9%

[Xing]

Switch Warren's and Biden's numbers, and I'd say it's a little more realistic. Sanders could definitely do better in SoCal this time around, given his strength among Latinos.

[ProudModerate2]

Biden Yang is dead. Finally.

FIFY.

[NOVA Green]

Switch Warren's and Biden's numbers, and I'd say it's a little more realistic. Sanders could definitely do better in SoCal this time around, given his strength among Latinos.

Well to be fair, Bernie actually did quite well among Latinos in California in '16, and even possibly better than Anglo voters.

Here's the Oldie but goodie 2016 Final Primary Megathread, which you posted into a bit as well back in the dayz. (C&P into a web-browser since it looks like it doesn't directly link into an archived file?).

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=238320.1050


1.) SoCal--- Interesting that Sanders 2020 appears to be doing better in LA County than OC or San Diego County, considering that it was the other way around in 2016. Obviously a +10% HRC win in LA County is a much bigger deal than a +4% HRC margin in OC or SD.....

Now if we look at the ethnic makeup of the entire population (Not just the Democratic electorate), SD County has the highest % of Anglos (and most likely a much higher % of Anglo Voters). Even accounting for greater Republican proclivities among Anglo SoCal Voters, this still leaves a pretty decent DEM Primary Constituency of wealthier and Middle Class Anglo Voters, which needless to say were not Bernie's greatest voting bloc in '16. Many Asian-Americans of similar age, occupation, economic, and educational background, frequently residing in the same types of communities and precincts voted similarly to their Anglo neighbors.

2.) Bernie's success in SoCal was heavily based upon a coalition of working and middle class Democrats from a wide variety of educational backgrounds, ethnicities, and social experiences, hence his success in winning overwhelmingly working-class overwhelmingly Latino Majority Regions (CD-34) and (CD-46)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California%27s_34th_congressional_district

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California%27s_46th_congressional_district

3.) The most surprising regional breakdown in the poll was the SF Bay Area (and Bernie's worst region within the State in '16).

Although he performed extremely well in Alameda County (Even winning Oakland!?), managed to track his statewide averages in the City, he got absolutely slaughtered in the Vote Bank of Santa Clara County (Metro San Jose). Numbers were less than impressive in the wealthy hills overlooking the flats of Contra Costa, the "eco designed towns of Marin", and got absolutely slaughtered in the Peninsula.

A Bernie tie in the Bay Area would certainly presage a major statewide win.... key question will be what DEMs drop out before CA starts early voting the same day as Iowa (Feb 3rd), and then NH, etc....

4.) This could work to both Bernie's advantage or disadvantage.... let's say hypothetically Yang, Mayor Pete, Klobuchar drop out before/after a significant number of EV ballot ballots are cast and before the March 3rd Primary....

5.) How will the first round of potential culls impact the outcome of the CA DEM Primary? (again throwing out some random names, so please don't take offense if I implied your preferred DEM candidate might be dropping out).

6.) The other trippy scenario is that because it takes CA so long to count their ballots, mainly to protect the right of the voter, allow access to elections, but also to prevent voter fraud, we don't even know if we will have a declared winner in CA on election Night (Which could impact the perception of Super Tuesday in subsequent States and spin the Media narrative).

7.) I tracked absentee, provisional ballots etc on a daily basis during the '16 DEM Primary into my Excel spreadsheets to see "what votes were out and where" and posted on Atlas Forum, but the reality is that there will be a HUGE number of CA votes that will not be fully counted until close to the wire to meet State Certification deadlines....

Anyways---- rant aside.

California is a really fun State to cover when it comes to election results, because it is the gift that keeps giving (Which in someways is more fitting for a grand finale than a Super Tuesday State, where we won'g even know the final numbers until likely close to the Wisconsin Primary....   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cali was only moved up due to Kamala Harris, not due to Biden or Bernie. But, Cali is favored towards Bernie this time

[NOVA Green]

Cali was only moved up due to Kamala Harris, not due to Biden or Bernie. But, Cali is favored towards Bernie this time

Thank you for your lengthy, extremely detailed and informative response.

[cvparty]

Sanders winning the largest state in the country - among an electorate more diverse than the national Democratic electorate? Not so fast - WOWs on Twitter say this revolution is CANCELLED.

BUT BERNIEBROS