Do the Democrats have a chance of taking the Senate in 2020 elections?

[SWE]

It's currently what I'm expecting to happen - trading Alabama with Colorado, Arizona, Maine, and North Carolina and winning the presidency

[Duke of York]

It's currently what I'm expecting to happen - trading Alabama with Colorado, Arizona, Maine, and North Carolina and winning the presidency

I hope your right

[here2view]

Their path of least resistance involves winning the presidency and trading Alabama for Colorado, then

1. Arizona (55% chance)
2. North Carolina (45% chance)
3. Maine (40% chance)

[Gracile]

It's not impossible, but it's a pretty narrow path. On a relatively good night (doing better in the PV than 2016), I can see Democrats losing Alabama, but gaining Colorado, Arizona, and North Carolina. The 1-2 seats needed to put them over the top are much trickier. Not to mention they can't afford to overlook Michigan.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gardner, McSally, Tillis and Collins partisan votes make it easier for the Dems to win control: 51/50

[Astatine]

According to my projection based on my model, there is a probability of about 30 % of the Senate going Democratic, 13 % of a 50-50 Senate and 57 % of a Republican control. The most likely outcome as of now is a Senate with 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats.

The most plausible path is the following, as 43 seats are already safe (98 %):

Gaining CO (prob.: 85 %)
Should the Democrats lose CO under any circumstances, it's almost certainly over. 44 seats

Hold on to their lean and likely seats (prob.: 68 %)
MN, NH and MI are the current lean and likely seats which are held by Democratic incumbents. Barring a strong John James campaign gaining too much traction, this should be possible. 47 seats

Gaining NC and AZ (prob.: 42 %)
As of right now, Democrats have a very decent chance of gaining at least one seat (91 %) in the highly competitive races (AZ 71 %, NC 60 %), losing one of them makes winning a Senate majority much tougher. 49 seats

Winning either ME or GA-special (prob.: 55 %)
Both seats are Lean R according to my rating with probabilities in the 60s to go Republican, but gaining one of those seats should be possible. Winning one of those seats results in an effective tie. 50 seats

Winning a likely Republican seat (prob.: 39 %)
The likely Republican group includes IA, GA, KS, AK and AL in that order. The GOP has decent chances of holding onto most of those (and gaining AL), but a a seat gain (or hold, as AL belongs to that category, but only because its chances of staying Dem are 5.1 % and not 4.9...) should be in reach for the Dems, effectively giving them control of the Senate. 51 seats

A surprise victory in a solid GOP seat (prob.: 7 %)
This is arguably a very unlikely outcome, but there is non-zero chance that Democrats pick up either TX, KY, MS, SC or MT. If they went on to win one of those seats, they will probably have already picked ME and GA-special plus another likely seat... but still, surprises could be possible. I only mentioned this possibility since according to my model, a GOP gain in solid Dem territory is far less likely (~2 % chance). 52 seats

Other paths might open up or close, depending on new polling numbers or changing circumstances...

Some updates taking account of new developments...

Hold on to current seats (prob.: 97 %)
43 seats
Gaining CO (prob.: 94 %)
44 seats
Hold on to MN, NH and MI (prob.: 65 %)
47 seats
Gaining AZ and ME (prob.: 46 %)
49 seats
Gaining NC or MT (prob.: 68 %)
50 seats
Gaining one of GA-S, IA, GA, AK, KS, TX (prob.: 54 %)
51 seats
Surprise gain in one of AL, KY, MS, SC (prob.: 10 %)
52 seats

For now, Dems have a 37 % chance of taking the Senate with 13 % probability of a tie. This number has been steady since the day Steve Bullock announced his Senate candidacy, on that day, the probability for a Dem control Senate increased from 33 to 37 %... Plus the two polls showing Collins' weakness in mid-February showed that number increase from 30 to 34 %.

[brucejoel99]

Yes, obviously.

[Ogre Mage]

Yes, it is very doable.

We need to pick up 3 seats if Joe Biden wins or 4 if Trump does.

Gardner (R) in Colorado and Doug Jones (D) in Alabama are almost certain to lose so that is an even trade.

After that --

Arizona -- Martha McSally (R) is trailing Mark Kelly (D) in the polls in the mid-to-high single digit range.  He is also clearly beating her in fundraising.  She is not even a real senator, having been appointed to this seat after she LOST to Kyrsten Sinema.  She isn't The Walking Dead like Gardner but there is a better than 50% chance this will be a Democratic pickup.

Maine -- dead heat race between Susan Collins (R) and Sarah Gideon (D).

North Carolina -- dead heat race between Thom Tillis (R) and Cal Cunningham (D).

Montana -- Gov. Steve Bullock (D) is challenging Sen. Daines (R).  Daines is slightly favored.

[Roll Roons]

How I see it right now:

44. New Hampshire
45. Minnesota
46. Colorado
47. Michigan
48. Arizona
49. North Carolina
50. Maine
51. Montana
52. Georgia special
53. Kansas
54. Georgia regular
55. Iowa
56. Alaska
57. Alabama
58. Texas

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, it is very doable.

We need to pick up 3 seats if Joe Biden wins or 4 if Trump does.

Gardner (R) in Colorado and Doug Jones (D) in Alabama are almost certain to lose so that is an even trade.

After that --

Arizona -- Martha McSally (R) is trailing Mark Kelly (D) in the polls in the mid-to-high single digit range.  He is also clearly beating her in fundraising.  She is not even a real senator, having been appointed to this seat after she LOST to Kyrsten Sinema.  She isn't The Walking Dead like Gardner but there is a better than 50% chance this will be a Democratic pickup.

Maine -- dead heat race between Susan Collins (R) and Sarah Gideon (D).

North Carolina -- dead heat race between Thom Tillis (R) and Cal Cunningham (D).

Montana -- Gov. Steve Bullock (D) is challenging Sen. Daines (R).  Daines is slightly favored.

Daines is not slightly favored Bullock will win

I know Rs think of the old 278 map, but  this is a 538 map not 278

[Heir of Camelot]

Agreed. I would say Bullock is slightly favored. It's currently a dead heat and the Dems have a much better ground game here. Daines has just completely disappeared since COVID-19 too. But then again "Disappearing Daines" has been his moniker for years.

[gerritcole]

You trade AL for CO. Pickup AZ, ME, GA(2), and perhaps another 2 in NC if Burr resigns.

[here2view]

They have a better chance now that Bullock is running. Assuming Colorado and Alabama are tradeoffs and Democrats protect all their other seats, in my opinion the path from least to most likely is:

48. Arizona (60%)
49. Maine (45%)
50. North Carolina (45%) tipping point if Biden wins
51. Georgia Special (40%) tipping point if Trump wins
52. Montana (40%)
53. Georgia (30%)

All the others would take specific circumstances, such as Kobach winning the nomination in Kansas.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course, AZ, CO and ME are safe bets:  GA, MT, NC, SC are wave insurance

[Mr. Smith]

Small one, and not one I'd bet anyone's life on.

[Storr]

Of course, AZ, CO and ME are safe bets:  GA, MT, NC, SC are wave insurance

No way a Republican loses to a Democrat in SC. Graham could only lose in a Republican primary and that's exactly why he suddenly became so friendly to Trump a few years ago despite heavily criticizing Trump in the 2016 R primary. I'd consider Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Alaska, or even Kentucky....yeah scratch that, forget Kentucky....wave insurance before SC. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Graham lose in November. I just don't see it happening under any circumstances.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Joe Cunningham has coronavirus,  Dems are spending money on SC

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would say with how uncertain things are, Dems have about a 1 in 3 chance of winning back the senate. Right now they need to net 3 seats assuming Biden wins and it's unlikely Biden would lose and they would win a senate majority.

Alabama - Safe Flip - Not much need for an explanation here, but its a presidential year in deep red Alabama, and Moore didn't make the runoff
Alaska - Likely Hold - Dems don't seem to be running anyone, but I think Al Gross could come close to unseating Dan Sullivan, especially considering that there's a large swath of 3rd party voters in AK on the presidential level, and they didn't vote for Trump for a specific reason.
Arizona - Lean Flip - McSally is just about the worst appointment ever, and Kelly is a strong candidate. Biden seems to have about a 50/50 shot at flipping AZ blue on the presidential level, and Kelly is likely to outperform Biden there. All polling shows Kelly ahead. You can't really make an argument for McSally winning at this point
Arkansas - Safe Hold
Colorado - Likely Flip - Gardner is in a pretty reliable blue state. This would only be competitive in a Trump landslide or maybe if Romanoff is the D candidate
Delaware - Safe Hold
Georgia - Lean Hold - This is closer to likely than tossup or "tilt". Perdue is relatively popular and isn't very controversial, Osoff is decent, but not amazing. Could flip in a D wave year
Georgia (Special) - Likely Hold - I actually think the GOP has a better chance at holding onto this seat than Perdue's seat for 2 reasons. First off, it seems possible a Democrat may not make the runoff. Second, if senate control comes down to this seat, which is very possible, Republicans I feel would be more likely to turn out than Democrats because they know the senate control is at stake, where as I feel younger Democratic voters don't have the time to really investigate why this special election is so important
Idaho - Safe Hold
Illinois - Safe Hold
Iowa - Lean Hold - Ernst is still relatively popular and isn't too controversial, and IA politics have become more favorable to Republican recently
Kansas - Likely Hold - IF Kobach is the nominee this moves to lean, but I don't know if Republicans will nominate him again and I haven't seen enough polling to say he will win. If he does win the primary, it's still Lean R because it's a presidential year and it's hard to imagine a good 25% of Trump voters voting for Bollier
Kentucky - Likely Hold - McConnell, while he is unpopular, is in Kentucky, and I don't think the Dems have a great candidate, after all, McGrath lost her house race in 2018.
Louisiana - Safe Hold
Maine - Lean Hold - I'm still skeptical about Susan Collins losing this one. She won her last election by a 40 point margin in a state that was more D than it is today. Also Maine can be very elastic, and has a large group of independent voters who tend to break for the more moderate candidate, hence why Angus King won by like 20 points in 2018, despite there being a Democrat on the ballot who took votes away from him. And yes, people like to point out how unpopular she is, but much of that comes from Republicans who don't think she's extreme enough. It'll certainly be closer than pervious cycles but I think Dems will be "disappointed and dismayed" by the results of this one
Massachusetts - Safe Hold
Michigan - Tossup - James isn't dead and has charisma. He came in striking distance of defeating a 3 term Democratic incumbent in a blue wave year, and greatly overperformed expectations. Peters will likely run a better campaign than Stabenow, but James is already running a pretty decent campaign, and will have recognition from last time. I think part of the outcome for this race will depend on how much media attention James gets on the days leading up to the election. If I really had to, I would give Peters the tiniest edge because he is the incumbent and it looks to be a state Trump will lose in, but I wouldn't count James out
Minnesota - Likely Hold - The state is generally pretty blue, Republicans don't have a great candidate, and Smith did decently in 2018
Mississippi - Safe Hold
Montana - Tossup - Montana is generally a red state, and is almost certain to go for Trump. However, with that being said, Democrats tend to do better downballot in MT, plus they scored just about the best candidate. MT has a small population, meaning there are fewer people that need to be swayed, and Dems will be investing heavily here because there's also a competitive house and governors race. If I had to give someone a slight edge, it would have to be Daines only because Trump is at the top of the ticket.
Nebraska - Safe Hold
New Hampshire - Likely Hold - Shaheen is a strong incumbent and Rs don't have a good candidate yet
New Jersey - Safe Hold
New Mexico - Likely Hold - Closer to being safe than lean. Republicans don't have a god candidate here
North Carolina - Tossup - A tossup state on the presidential level with an unpopular R incumbent who is tying his fortunes to Trump. Cunningham is a decent candidate, not amazing though. Biden seems to be a pretty good fit for the state to, and could win in one of his better nights. If I had to give a slight advantage, I would give it to Cunningham because Tillis will likely underperform Trump in what is already bound to be a close state on the presidential level.
Oklahoma - Safe Hold
Oregon - Safe Hold
Rhode Island - Safe Hold
South Carolina - Likely Hold - Lindsey Graham is a very infamous figure, but SC is very red generally on the presidential level, but the Dems have a strong candidate
South Dakota - Safe Hold
Tennessee - Safe Hold
Texas - Likely Hold - Texas has been becoming more competitive recently, but it's still to be seen who will win the runoff, and if they can get the level of energy Beto had in 2018. Cornyn isn't as controversial as Cruz and 2018 was a good year for the Democrats though, so beating their 2018 numbers is unlikely for the Democrats
Virginia - Safe Hold
West Virginia - Safe Hold
Wyoming - Safe Hold

Overall, it seems like Democrats are favored to pick up a senate seat or two, as they have more pickup opprotunities than the Republicans do. A senate majoirty is certainly possible for them on a pretty good night, but the math still favors the GOP for now. It's so interesting to see how things have changed throughout this cycle, early on I thought the dems had virtually no chance at winning the senate, but through the AZ-Special opening up, Democrats getting strong recruits, and Republicans nominating weak canidates in places like Kansas, the senate is certainly in reach for the Democrat party.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ, CO, KS, ME, MT SC and GA 1 or 2, 3 to 6 seats

AL Safe R Sessions
AK Likely R Sullivan
AZ Safe D Kelly
CO Likely D Romanoff or Hickenlooper
GA 1 and 2 Leans R
IA Likely R Ernst is as popular as Reynolds
KS Leans D Bollier is as popular as Gov Kelly
KY Safe R its McConnell
ME Leans D its ME
MI Likely D its MI
MT Leans D Bullock and Cooney shall win
NC Leans R Tillis isnt Burr
SC Leans D Harrison is riding coattails of Tim Scott. There was another poll done and Harrison leading 46 to 42
TX Safe R Hegar is another Geeenfield


Dems wont have 10 or 11 seats but 52 or 53 seats is likely with 2 seats from DC and Dems getting a 3 to 5 in 2022

[ProgressiveModerate]

AZ, CO, KS, ME, MT SC and GA 1 or 2, 3 to 6 seats

AL Safe R Sessions
AK Likely R Sullivan
AZ Safe D Kelly
CO Likely D Romanoff or Hickenlooper
GA 1 and 2 Leans R
IA Likely R Ernst is aa popular as Reynolds
KS Leans D Bollier is as popular as Gov Kelly
KY Safe R its McConnell
ME Leans D its ME
MI Likely D its MI
MT Leans D Bullock and Cooney shall win
NC Leans R Tillis isnt Burr
SC Leans D Harrison is riding coattails of Tim Scott. There was another poll done and Harrison leading 46 to 42
TX Safe R Hegar is another Geeenfield

I think you're being too bullish about the Dems chance of winning some of these senate seats. SC, while Harrison could win in a very very good night for the Democrats, SC is still a likely, if not safe R state on the presidential level, and Graham isn't hated enough by enough Republican voters yet. Polls this early aren't very reliable, so I wouldn't take that to seriously. Likely R. Also how is SC going blue while NC leans R?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am going by whom I will donate to the rest of my campaign but NC or SC can flip, but I will donate to Harrison rather than Cunningham