2018 CA-GOV and CA-SEN results comparison

[I’m not Stu]

I noticed that de Leon won every House district won by Cox except for 3 (CA-39, CA-45, and CA-48). Cox also won the Orange County side of CA-47. Conversely, de Leon won 6 districts won by Newsom (CA-3, CA-9, CA-16, CA-21, CA-25, and CA-51). What explains this?

CA-GOV 2018 results by House district: Gavin Newsom (D): 61.9%, John Cox (R): 38.1%


CA-SEN 2018 results by congressional district: Dianne Feinstein (D): 54.2%, Kevin de Leon (D): 45.8%

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

De Leon was the de facto vote for Republicans that didn’t abstain. He also beat Feinstein in heavily Hispanic parts of the Central Valley as well as the Imperial Valley.

[I’m not Stu]

De Leon was the de facto vote for Republicans that didn’t abstain. He also beat Feinstein in heavily Hispanic parts of the Central Valley as well as the Imperial Valley.

Why did Feinstein easily win three districts that Cox narrowly won (CA-39, CA-45, and CA-48)?

[pops]

De Leon was the de facto vote for Republicans that didn’t abstain. He also beat Feinstein in heavily Hispanic parts of the Central Valley as well as the Imperial Valley.

Why did Feinstein easily win three districts that Cox narrowly won (CA-39, CA-45, and CA-48)?

Vote could have had to do with support/opposition to the Democratic Party establishment than anything else. These could be three districts that are anti-Trump, but liked Cox. Not saying this is a guarantee, just one possibility.

[Holmes]

Newsom is toxic in OC, it's really that simple. Every other statewide Dem performed well there. Feinstein was the generic Democratic candidate and OC voters had no reason to vote against that in 2018.

[I’m not Stu]

Newsom is toxic in OC, it's really that simple. Every other statewide Dem performed well there. Feinstein was the generic Democratic candidate and OC voters had no reason to vote against that in 2018.

Ricardo Lara and Mike Schaefer did worse than Newsom in OC. In OC, Steve Poizner got 57.1% and Joel Anderson got 51.3%, giving the GOP a victory in OC for Insurance Commissioner and Board of Equalization (BoED-4 covers all of OC).

[Calthrina950]

Newsom is toxic in OC, it's really that simple. Every other statewide Dem performed well there. Feinstein was the generic Democratic candidate and OC voters had no reason to vote against that in 2018.

It's interesting how 2018 was the first time ever that Feinstein won Orange County, and she did it against another Democrat. She couldn't even win it in 2012 when she got 63% of the statewide vote.

[I’m not Stu]

What’s with the Newsom-de Leon areas? Who are these anti-Feinstein Democrats in these places? Why are such Democrats less common in the urban areas?
Feinstein: 54.2%, de Leon: 45.8%

[Calthrina950]

What’s with the Newsom-de Leon areas? Who are these anti-Feinstein Democrats in these places? Why are such Democrats less common in the urban areas?
Feinstein: 54.2%, de Leon: 45.8%

As was explained on here, de Leon did very well in the Central and Imperial Valleys, which have a large number of Hispanics. If I recall correctly, he won the Hispanic vote, while Feinstein carried whites, blacks, and Asians. Though it surprises me that de Leon, as far as I can tell, didn't win any of the Hispanic-majority districts in Los Angeles County, such as those of Barragan, Torres, Roybal-Allard, or Gomez, nor any in Orange County, like that of Correa. I would assume he ran close in those districts, though.

[I’m not Stu]

What’s with the Newsom-de Leon areas? Who are these anti-Feinstein Democrats in these places? Why are such Democrats less common in the urban areas?
Feinstein: 54.2%, de Leon: 45.8%

As was explained on here, de Leon did very well in the Central and Imperial Valleys, which have a large number of Hispanics. If I recall correctly, he won the Hispanic vote, while Feinstein carried whites, blacks, and Asians. Though it surprises me that de Leon, as far as I can tell, didn't win any of the Hispanic-majority districts in Los Angeles County, such as those of Barragan, Torres, Roybal-Allard, or Gomez, nor any in Orange County, like that of Correa. I would assume he ran close in those districts, though.

CA-44 wasn’t even close. The others were fairly close, but CA-40 (de Leon’s home district) was the only one where Feinstein was held to less than 52%. Why are Mono, Alpine, Humboldt, and Mendocino Newsom-de Leon counties?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Every answer given seems to provide ERM64man with more questions that should've been asked in the original post anyway.

Regardless, perhaps the dominant questions to ask should be "Why did de Leon win & lose the counties/districts that he did? Provide an answer for every specific county & district"

[I’m not Stu]

Newport Beach, Irvine, Anaheim Hills, and Diamond Bar have a large business conservative population. That is the most likely demographic of a Cox-Feinstein voter.

[Calthrina950]

What’s with the Newsom-de Leon areas? Who are these anti-Feinstein Democrats in these places? Why are such Democrats less common in the urban areas?
Feinstein: 54.2%, de Leon: 45.8%

As was explained on here, de Leon did very well in the Central and Imperial Valleys, which have a large number of Hispanics. If I recall correctly, he won the Hispanic vote, while Feinstein carried whites, blacks, and Asians. Though it surprises me that de Leon, as far as I can tell, didn't win any of the Hispanic-majority districts in Los Angeles County, such as those of Barragan, Torres, Roybal-Allard, or Gomez, nor any in Orange County, like that of Correa. I would assume he ran close in those districts, though.

CA-44 wasn’t even close. The others were fairly close, but CA-40 (de Leon’s home district) was the only one where Feinstein was held to less than 52%. Why are Mono, Alpine, Humboldt, and Mendocino Newsom-de Leon counties?

White liberals and hippies, I believe. These are all socially liberal counties, and de Leon is much more socially progressive than Feinstein is-i.e. his views on immigration and race issues, which are definitely on the left end of the ideological spectrum within the Democratic Party. These counties would have been receptive to his views on such issues, and possibly thought Feinstein had been in office too long and was out of touch-i.e. her encounter with those student activists in her office after the election.

[I’m not Stu]

Notably, the only district with a significant urban core that de Leon won is in San Diego (CA-51), where he won both counties in the district. San Diego was also Feinstein’s worst urban county in Southern California. Why are San Diego voters less inclined to vote for Feinstein than voters in LA/OC?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Notably, the only district with a significant urban core that de Leon won is in San Diego (CA-51), where he won both counties in the district. Why are San Diego voters less inclined to vote for Feinstein than voters in LA/OC?

I was gonna assume the next question you'd ask would be "Why did de Leon lose Santa Cruz County?"

Nonetheless:

Perhaps the dominant questions to ask should be "Why did de Leon win & lose the counties/districts that he did? Provide an answer for every specific county & district"

[I’m not Stu]

Notably, the only district with a significant urban core that de Leon won is in San Diego (CA-51), where he won both counties in the district. Why are San Diego voters less inclined to vote for Feinstein than voters in LA/OC?

I was gonna assume the next question you'd ask would be "Why did de Leon lose Santa Cruz County?"

Nonetheless:

Perhaps the dominant questions to ask should be "Why did de Leon win & lose the counties/districts that he did? Provide an answer for every specific county & district"

No, Santa Cruz doesn’t surprise me. I’m puzzled by San Diego being so urbanized, but less supportive of Feinstein than LA/OC. In that sense, San Diego is an outlier.

[TheLaRocca]

What’s with the Newsom-de Leon areas? Who are these anti-Feinstein Democrats in these places? Why are such Democrats less common in the urban areas?
Feinstein: 54.2%, de Leon: 45.8%

The Democrats in the Emerald triangle are different than the ones in the bay. They tend to be quite leftist but also very anti-establishment. Which explains how Bernie won Mendocino/Humbolt in the primary but also De-Leon.

You also had an extremely high Nader vote up there.

[TheLaRocca]

Notably, the only district with a significant urban core that de Leon won is in San Diego (CA-51), where he won both counties in the district. Why are San Diego voters less inclined to vote for Feinstein than voters in LA/OC?

I was gonna assume the next question you'd ask would be "Why did de Leon lose Santa Cruz County?"

Nonetheless:

Perhaps the dominant questions to ask should be "Why did de Leon win & lose the counties/districts that he did? Provide an answer for every specific county & district"

(1) lack of name rec
(2) lower turnout from UCSC during the mid-terms (this is a major reason really if it was a presidential election he would have won)
(3) suburbs of SC (Scots Valley, Capitola) are pretty "moderate"-Democrat, more favorable to establishment Democrats.
(4) SC is very left-wing, but Feinstein is popular with Democrats (for some reason). So you would have alot of people who are left-Democrats but still vote for the party line. And Feinstein was the default choice.

[I’m not Stu]

Why are conservatives in LA/OC more willing to vote for Feinstein, compared to the rest of the state? Why do these neighborhoods that voted for Cox have a surprisingly low number of protest votes for de Leon?