Coronavirus & 2020

[DabbingSanta]

Given that there are close to 500 confirmed cases across the states, I wouldn't be surprised if we see an outright pandemic here in North America. It is already occurring in parts of Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Why would that be good news for Trump? His administration is getting a lot of criticism for how this has been handled. 

[DabbingSanta]

Coronavirus is only killing people over the age of 70. If it affects the election at all, it'll hurt Trump by killing off his core voter base.

Yes, and Trump supporters are more likely to believe the coronavirus is being staged or exaggerated by the media (no joke).

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-polarization/americans-divided-on-party-lines-over-risk-from-coronavirus-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN20T2O3

Conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh told listeners last week that, “The coronavirus is the common cold” and was merely being “weaponized as yet another element to bring down Donald Trump.”

[Progressive Pessimist]

That didn't stop voters on Super Tuesday.

Anyway, we don't even know if this pandemic will still be relevant by November. Regardless, it should still be used against Trump as an example of how incompetent his administration is.

How has his administration been incompetent?
Seriously, what the hell are you supposed to do when something like this is spreading all over the world?!
Wave a wand and somehow create a vaccine out of thin air?

You don't downplay and lie about the pandemic for one thing! Also the administration dragged their feet in containing it. And finally, regardless of how much it is or isn't actually Trump's fault, he will be blamed for the DOW plummeting considering that he always takes credit when it's in good shape. That's the danger of tying yourself to the economy-a concept that is more beyond a President's control than it is often portrayed.

Since the market was likely to have a downturn this year anyway, having something else to blame is a potential help.

A downturn is a downturn though and Trump made his excuse for it worse, so I still don't think he can spin this turd into gold very easily.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

That didn't stop voters on Super Tuesday.

Anyway, we don't even know if this pandemic will still be relevant by November. Regardless, it should still be used against Trump as an example of how incompetent his administration is.

How has his administration been incompetent?
Seriously, what the hell are you supposed to do when something like this is spreading all over the world?!
Wave a wand and somehow create a vaccine out of thin air?

You don't downplay and lie about the pandemic for one thing! Also the administration dragged their feet in containing it. And finally, regardless of how much it is or isn't actually Trump's fault, he will be blamed for the DOW plummeting considering that he always takes credit when it's in good shape. That's the danger of tying yourself to the economy-a concept that is more beyond a President's control than it is often portrayed.

Since the market was likely to have a downturn this year anyway, having something else to blame is a potential help.

A downturn is a downturn though and Trump made his excuse for it worse, so I still don't think he can spin this turd into gold very easily.

He doesn't have to spin it into gold. Obviously, he'd be better off if the market had waited another year to tank. However, I've seen too many premature excitations of how Trump is certainly doomed now to believe them in advance.

[IceSpear]

"Bold" prediction: This, like 99.9% of events that occur 8 months before an election, will have zero impact on said election.

[Progressive Pessimist]

That didn't stop voters on Super Tuesday.

Anyway, we don't even know if this pandemic will still be relevant by November. Regardless, it should still be used against Trump as an example of how incompetent his administration is.

How has his administration been incompetent?
Seriously, what the hell are you supposed to do when something like this is spreading all over the world?!
Wave a wand and somehow create a vaccine out of thin air?

You don't downplay and lie about the pandemic for one thing! Also the administration dragged their feet in containing it. And finally, regardless of how much it is or isn't actually Trump's fault, he will be blamed for the DOW plummeting considering that he always takes credit when it's in good shape. That's the danger of tying yourself to the economy-a concept that is more beyond a President's control than it is often portrayed.

Since the market was likely to have a downturn this year anyway, having something else to blame is a potential help.

A downturn is a downturn though and Trump made his excuse for it worse, so I still don't think he can spin this turd into gold very easily.

He doesn't have to spin it into gold. Obviously, he'd be better off if the market had waited another year to tank. However, I've seen too many premature excitations of how Trump is certainly doomed now to believe them in advance.

I'm not saying he is doomed for sure, just that he will go into the general election with one of his major attributes, the economy, weakened if this keeps up in the coming months.

[urutzizu]

Well in a more abstract way of thinking the Virus does essentially vindicate economic nationalists, protectionists. Those who warned for decades now that these endless supply chains, globalisation on steroids, especially as regards to China were unsustainable. And this Adminstration at least partially beginning the process of decoupling the USA from China will mean that the American economy is likely suffer less harshly than those of major European Countries or the Asia-Pacific.

But it is unlikely to be a thought process that the Average Voter will go through, and of course Trump -unlike his advisors - was never was a economic nationalist from any ideological persuasion anyway - he is just a grifter.

[SN2903]

Given that there are close to 500 confirmed cases across the states, I wouldn't be surprised if we see an outright pandemic here in North America. It is already occurring in parts of Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Why would that be good news for Trump? His administration is getting a lot of criticism for how this has been handled.  

It's not good news for him. It's serious but being hyped up a little bit by the media. It's still far, far, far worse in China, Italy and S. Korea.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes it does, this is why Bernie couldn't break thru, it takes voters attention away from the fanfare of voting and focus on the serious problems of this epidemic. This is why Trump is back tied again in MI, PA and WI, even against Biden

[The Mikado]

"Bold" prediction: This, like 99.9% of events that occur 8 months before an election, will have zero impact on said election.

Very much doubt that because this is going to be an ongoing and growing event for months. Corona's not going anywhere.

[Non Swing Voter]

Coronavirus has neutralized Trump's only strength (stock market/economy).  This has been a horrible 2 weeks for Trump.  Stock market collapsing and it looks like he will get the most formidable democratic opponent in the field.  Plus Bloomberg really is continuing to fund Democrats.  Worst case scenario for Trump.

[Badger]

Okay, I have serious doubts that we beat Trump in the end, but COVID-19 is becoming more and more of a disaster for him. If we lose, it'll be in spite of his cartoonishly craptastic response to the virus.

Why is it a disaster for him? He didn’t start it

A. His response to the outbreak has been God awful.

B. He didn't cause the growth in jobs and the stock market either, but just rather accepted credit for it when it happened. However, the inverse is also true for a president when things go to s***.

[Badger]

The panic will probably be over by November. The negative impact on the economy will probably hurt Trump. If he did put in a great response that showed strong leadership he could benefit, but that isn't what we're seeing so far.

This is probably Trump Saving Grace. I suspect that the negative impact on the economy plus even his laughable mishandling of the crisis will be largely forgotten by November.

[Meclazine for Israel]

"Bold" prediction: This, like 99.9% of events that occur 8 months before an election, will have zero impact on said election.

Very much doubt that because this is going to be an ongoing and growing event for months. Corona's not going anywhere.

You are coming to the end of Winter. You wont see any Corona-virus in the US in June.

Even the deasliest phase of the Spanish Flu which killed 100M people only lasted 2 months.

The economic supply chain issues will be longer lasting with China.

And if the market economics are out of whack, we might see a massive correction lasting longer again.

[SInNYC]

On the face of it, it hurts Trump. However, if he makes a show of punishing some pharmaceutical (one that doesnt contribute to his campaign) for not producing a cure while Biden runs an anodyne campaign not really addressing any related issues (even those that might not be meaningfully addressable), Trump might actually be helped.

[Yoda]

"Bold" prediction: This, like 99.9% of events that occur 8 months before an election, will have zero impact on said election.

Very much doubt that because this is going to be an ongoing and growing event for months. Corona's not going anywhere.

You are coming to the end of Winter. You wont see any Corona-virus in the US in June.

Coronavirus is not the seasonal flu. This is wishful thinking. There is zero reason to expect that summer will make it go away. I literally just read quotes from epidemiologists and virologists on this topic two days ago and they said there is no reason the spread wont continue into and past summer.

[Pulaski]

Fear of getting infected at the polling places will lead to lower turnout, and lower turnout helps Republicans. What do you guys think?

The more likely scenario is that by November the vast majority of people will have already been infected.

[It’s so Joever]

"Bold" prediction: This, like 99.9% of events that occur 8 months before an election, will have zero impact on said election.

Very much doubt that because this is going to be an ongoing and growing event for months. Corona's not going anywhere.

You are coming to the end of Winter. You wont see any Corona-virus in the US in June.

Coronavirus is not the seasonal flu. This is wishful thinking. There is zero reason to expect that summer will make it go away. I literally just read quotes from epidemiologists and virologists on this topic two days ago and they said there is no reason the spread wont continue into and past summer.

Still, there is some reason to believe the spread of Coronavirus will slow this summer. Less people indoors in crowded areas helps, along with the fact that UV radiation and heat appears to kill the virus.

[Ljube]

"Bold" prediction: This, like 99.9% of events that occur 8 months before an election, will have zero impact on said election.

Very much doubt that because this is going to be an ongoing and growing event for months. Corona's not going anywhere.

You are coming to the end of Winter. You wont see any Corona-virus in the US in June.

Coronavirus is not the seasonal flu. This is wishful thinking. There is zero reason to expect that summer will make it go away. I literally just read quotes from epidemiologists and virologists on this topic two days ago and they said there is no reason the spread wont continue into and past summer.

Still, there is some reason to believe the spread of Coronavirus will slow this summer. Less people indoors in crowded areas helps, along with the fact that UV radiation and heat appears to kill the virus.

In other words, "it will disappear one day like a miracle". If that happens by say mid April, Trump will be hailed as a genius.

[Meclazine for Israel]

"Bold" prediction: This, like 99.9% of events that occur 8 months before an election, will have zero impact on said election.

Very much doubt that because this is going to be an ongoing and growing event for months. Corona's not going anywhere.

You are coming to the end of Winter. You wont see any Corona-virus in the US in June.

Coronavirus is not the seasonal flu. This is wishful thinking. There is zero reason to expect that summer will make it go away. I literally just read quotes from epidemiologists and virologists on this topic two days ago and they said there is no reason the spread wont continue into and past summer.

Still, there is some reason to believe the spread of Coronavirus will slow this summer. Less people indoors in crowded areas helps, along with the fact that UV radiation and heat appears to kill the virus.

I think you are onto something Lurker.



There is definitely a seasonal trend. That graph is 3-4 days old and it just got a whole lot worse in the winter countries.

UV is definitely something this virus would not like. Or maybe the humid air, who knows

Coronavirus is not the seasonal flu. This is wishful thinking. There is zero reason to expect that summer will make it go away. I literally just read quotes from epidemiologists and virologists on this topic two days ago and they said there is no reason the spread wont continue into and past summer.

No, there are modelled epidemiological growth and recess curves for each country with viral pandemics.

China is already in decline. Italy and Iran will be next to decline as other countries enter a growth phase.

You should quote these scientists who say that the USA will still be having a version of the Corona-virus pandemic of 6 month duration.

And then we will see how your prediction looks in July August.

[It’s so Joever]

"Bold" prediction: This, like 99.9% of events that occur 8 months before an election, will have zero impact on said election.

Very much doubt that because this is going to be an ongoing and growing event for months. Corona's not going anywhere.

You are coming to the end of Winter. You wont see any Corona-virus in the US in June.

Coronavirus is not the seasonal flu. This is wishful thinking. There is zero reason to expect that summer will make it go away. I literally just read quotes from epidemiologists and virologists on this topic two days ago and they said there is no reason the spread wont continue into and past summer.

Still, there is some reason to believe the spread of Coronavirus will slow this summer. Less people indoors in crowded areas helps, along with the fact that UV radiation and heat appears to kill the virus.

I think you are onto something Lurker.



There is definitely a seasonal trend. That graph is 3-4 days old and it just got a whole lot worse in the winter countries.

UV is definitely something this virus would not like. Or maybe the humid air, who knows

Coronavirus is not the seasonal flu. This is wishful thinking. There is zero reason to expect that summer will make it go away. I literally just read quotes from epidemiologists and virologists on this topic two days ago and they said there is no reason the spread wont continue into and past summer.

No, there are modelled epidemiological growth and recess curves for each country with viral pandemics.

China is already in decline. Italy and Iran will be next to decline as other countries enter a growth phase.

You should quote these scientists who say that the USA will still be having a version of the Corona-virus pandemic of 6 month duration.

And then we will see how your prediction looks in July August.

Lol China is in decline because of their “draconian” (aka: effective) measures to slow the spread. The virus is beatable easily, our political leaders are just cowards. Anyways, if this virus is seasonal like other common coronaviruses, the trends will show in mid April.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

"Bold" prediction: This, like 99.9% of events that occur 8 months before an election, will have zero impact on said election.

Very much doubt that because this is going to be an ongoing and growing event for months. Corona's not going anywhere.

You are coming to the end of Winter. You wont see any Corona-virus in the US in June.

Coronavirus is not the seasonal flu. This is wishful thinking. There is zero reason to expect that summer will make it go away. I literally just read quotes from epidemiologists and virologists on this topic two days ago and they said there is no reason the spread wont continue into and past summer.

Still, there is some reason to believe the spread of Coronavirus will slow this summer. Less people indoors in crowded areas helps, along with the fact that UV radiation and heat appears to kill the virus.

I think you are onto something Lurker.



There is definitely a seasonal trend. That graph is 3-4 days old and it just got a whole lot worse in the winter countries.

UV is definitely something this virus would not like. Or maybe the humid air, who knows

Coronavirus is not the seasonal flu. This is wishful thinking. There is zero reason to expect that summer will make it go away. I literally just read quotes from epidemiologists and virologists on this topic two days ago and they said there is no reason the spread wont continue into and past summer.

No, there are modelled epidemiological growth and recess curves for each country with viral pandemics.

China is already in decline. Italy and Iran will be next to decline as other countries enter a growth phase.

You should quote these scientists who say that the USA will still be having a version of the Corona-virus pandemic of 6 month duration.

And then we will see how your prediction looks in July August.

Lol China is in decline because of their “draconian” (aka: effective) measures to slow the spread. The virus is beatable easily, our political leaders are just cowards. Anyways, if this virus is seasonal like other common coronaviruses, the trends will show in mid April.

Effective? They arrested the first people to report the virus and held a giant communal feast in Wuhan. They've also been blatantly underreporting both cases and deaths for the sake of saving face.

The Chinese response is only effective at covering the asses of the top brass of the CCP. I can't believe I'm seeing a Westerner fall for blatant propaganda.

[Ljube]

I don't trust any numbers coming from China.
They are all engineered and approved by their Central Committee.

Much more reliable are the numbers from South Korea.

But the best numbers are those from cruise ships (the one anchored in Japan).
These cruise ship numbers show us that:

• Corona virus is benign and most of the people have very mild symptoms
• Death rate is far lower than the alarmist rates originally reported

Here is an article referring to a study conducted by doctor Jeremy Faust.

https://www.wgbh.org/news/local-news/2020/03/06/boston-er-doctor-argues-coronavirus-isnt-as-deadly-as-suspected

The true case fatality rate, known as the CFR, of this virus is likely substantially overstated, Faust said. More testing needs to be done to get an accurate sense of how many more asymptomatic and mild cases there are versus fatalities, he added.
[/qoute]

[Amtrak Joe]

Ha ha no.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

That didn't stop voters on Super Tuesday.

Anyway, we don't even know if this pandemic will still be relevant by November. Regardless, it should still be used against Trump as an example of how incompetent his administration is.

How has his administration been incompetent?
Seriously, what the hell are you supposed to do when something like this is spreading all over the world?!
Wave a wand and somehow create a vaccine out of thin air?

You don't downplay and lie about the pandemic for one thing! Also the administration dragged their feet in containing it. And finally, regardless of how much it is or isn't actually Trump's fault, he will be blamed for the DOW plummeting considering that he always takes credit when it's in good shape. That's the danger of tying yourself to the economy-a concept that is more beyond a President's control than it is often portrayed.

Since the market was likely to have a downturn this year anyway, having something else to blame is a potential help.

A downturn is a downturn though and Trump made his excuse for it worse, so I still don't think he can spin this turd into gold very easily.

He doesn't have to spin it into gold. Obviously, he'd be better off if the market had waited another year to tank. However, I've seen too many premature excitations of how Trump is certainly doomed now to believe them in advance.

I'm not saying he is doomed for sure, just that he will go into the general election with one of his major attributes, the economy, weakened if this keeps up in the coming months.

But you're continuing to assume that even if there had been no coronavirus that the stock market would've continued to do well thru election day.  That's not what would've been likely. To accurately judge how the virus affects the campaign, you need to compare it against the most likely circumstances had there been none.  Those were a nornal, boring stock market correction/bear market paired with a slowdown in hiring and economic growth.