Coronavirus & 2020

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Unlikely. This is no worse than any common flu. News media is making the DOW worse by striking fear like they always do.

I am glad for my own personal sake that there are people with your sort of mentality in the world. I can think of at least 2 ways this is advantageous to me. There are probably more, but this is good enough:

1) I can make money on the stock market off of people with your mentality.
2) People with your mentality will get infected disproportionately, making it more likely that I myself can escape infection (at least if, hopefully, herd immunity is built up from antibodies, although that is uncertain).

You be you!!!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unlikely. This is no worse than any common flu. News media is making the DOW worse by striking fear like they always do.

I was being sarcastic,  it's not over, but Fox is the gold standard for conservative talk and even they have Trump losing enough for both Cornyn and McConnell to lose, 7 pts would do it

The Fox polls have Bernie leading 49-42, TX will go Dem and McConnell is losing in an internal polling,  its over😎😎😎

Yes

[SnowLabrador]

It should, but then again, many other things should have ended his campaign. If I had to guess, it has very little net impact.

[Brittain33]

No, I think he will survive if he gets sick from it. He has the best doctors in the world in the White House.

He has access to the best doctors in the world, but he prefers to go to the guy with the square jaw who’ll go out there and lie about Trump’s health to keep his ego soothed.

[sg0508]

If it hurts the economy, and it looks like it already is, it will hurt the incumbents. It's as simple as that.  Most voters are not sophisticated enough to know that the virus scare isn't the president's fault.  All they see is the decline in Wall St, their portfolio and potential job loss.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I think it very well could depending on the economic impact. We're seeing entire cities/countries shut down and now fear is being stroked in the US of an outbreak. I've lost so much money this week in the market with no end in sight - this feels worse than 2008

[tagimaucia]

it completely depends on the impact on the economy. if gdp growth slows significantly (particularly in the 2nd quarter which historically has had a huge correlation with presidential election results), it will hurt trump.

if it doesn't change economic conditions significantly (i think if just the stock market crashes but everything else kinda keeps chugging along people won't care that much) it could totally go either way based on how good or bad the administration's response is perceived to be.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Chance of death increases with age, and most deaths are in the elderly.

Plus, there is little chance Trump is going to stop doing rallies. (At least, for reasons of public health.)

If the epidemic in the US is severe, it will disproportionately impact Republican voters.

[Brittain33]

It’s going to get ugly when it sweeps the concentration camps.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I think it very well could depending on the economic impact. We're seeing entire cities/countries shut down and now fear is being stroked in the US of an outbreak. I've lost so much money this week in the market with no end in sight - this feels worse than 2008

Let's get this bull trap going, people!

[SN2903]

No it's way overhyped. The cases in China area already going down. It has not spread in the US yet and the virus has only a 2% death rate.

[indietraveler]

Already reading online (FB) conspiracy comments about how the virus was intentionally released by China to try to get Trump out of office this fall. How long before Trump/Fox/evangelicals run with this idea?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I think it very well could depending on the economic impact. We're seeing entire cities/countries shut down and now fear is being stroked in the US of an outbreak. I've lost so much money this week in the market with no end in sight - this feels worse than 2008

Let's get this bull trap going, people!

Ah, charting: the tarot cards of financial analysis.

If there's a rally, it's totally not a fool's rally, but a genuine return to market highs, and recognition that TRUMP is winning harder for the economy than anyone in history.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

No it's way overhyped. The cases in China area already going down. It has not spread in the US yet and the virus has only a 2% death rate.

True story: my company had to delay a major service rollout for our customers - indefinitely - because of supply chain problems in China. The economic disruption is real.

The 1918 Spanish Flu had a 2.5% death rate, and killed 50 million people. The world population was only 1.8 billion at the time. A comparable event today would kill hundreds of millions. If you think better medical care will mitigate this, you're fooling yourself. When the hospitals are overflowing with patients we could have Star Trek medical tech and it wouldn't matter. We've returned to the Middle Ages. Global travel is way heavier today than 100 years ago, which will spread the virus faster, and people are way more dependent on goods delivered from elsewhere, making them extremely sensitive to supply chain disruptions.

TRUMP will beat this, though, like he beats everything. And it will all be back to normal soon and TRUMP will be invincible.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Mortality rate of COVID-19 is ~20% in people around the age of 80.

And.....the elderly are more likely to catch it in preference to younger candidates.... I mean people.

Joe Biden - 77 years
Bernie Sanders - 78 years

If this virus starts to spread in the US in an asymptomatic fashion, and one of these candidates gets sick, it's all over for their campaign.

The stigma associated with this virus for the Chinese has been terrible. I could only imagine what would happen if one of the Democratic candidates or, dare I say, President Trump, catches the virus.

Lucky they wont be out in the community shaking hands with anyone who cares to meet them.....

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Why is it that a virus that trump has no control over could hurt him? It’s not like he caused the virus to occur

Obama got killed on Ebola in 2014 and this looks like it could be worse.

#OBOLA

[Indie observer]

It gives a good argument about stricter immigration controls, which is Trump's biggest selling point

[GeorgiaModerate]

It might cause him to lose some weight, which would be good for his overall health, but on balance the risks of it at his age would make it an overall no.

[Agonized-Statism]

It gives a good argument about stricter immigration controls, which is Trump's biggest selling point

That it does. It also causes a recession due to economic slowdown in China, and the Republicans' only selling point at the moment is "but muh economy". Coin toss.

[Figueira]

It gives a good argument about stricter immigration controls, which is Trump's biggest selling point

No, his biggest selling point is the economy. Also coronavirus isn't coming via immigration from places Trump likes to fearmonger about.

[AGA]

This issue is still getting worse. China's economy is screwed, and that will affect us. The virus just killed someone in California. There won't be a vaccine for at least a year. This is a serious threat to the economy if it keeps spreading.

[Inmate Trump]

How crazy is it to posit that there may not be elections in November, or at least very subdued and underwhelming turnout...because of the virus?

[Koharu]

No one's taking about it because there's no way to quantify it or what its effects will be. It could go nowhere or it could be weird then the Spanish flu. We just don't know and so we can't guess this far out.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'm going to push back on the one year timeline for the vaccine.  They had the swine flu vaccine out within six months after initially saying very similar things.  The bureaucracy of approvals might be able to take a backseat in the face of a pandemic.

[GeorgiaModerate]

They're not talking about it in this forum because there's already an active thread in USGD: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=355597.0.