Coronavirus & 2020

[Pulaski]

In theory, the rampant increase in Sinophobia helps Trump, but disruption of the global supply chain and economic slump that could result helps the Dems.

At least here in China I expect the situation to mostly have died down pretty soon, so by the time of the election I think this will be way off of US voters' minds.

The outbreak may have died down by November, but will the economic knock-ons have done the same?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Too soon to tell. It could go either way.

I suppose the worst-case scenario for Trump is that the virus causes a recession, but the epidemic itself is either over by November and/or a bungled response to it basically became Trump's Hurricane Katrina.

[afleitch]

I mean if it spreads due to sh!tty access to healthcare and people being fired if they skip work/self isolate or being arrested by ICE if they have a Mexican surname and they visit the doctorr it might collapse the whole cardboard edifice and sweep the whole rotten lot out.

Though I wouldn't put it past Trump stirring up fears of a 'virus caravan' at the border and scaring Wisconsinites.

[Mehmentum]

While this has a potential to perhaps marginally help Trump, the potential downsides for him are far more serious.  A scenario where Coronavirus doesn't become that big of a deal and Trump can say he stopped it doesn't look *that* different from the status quo.  A scenario where the government bungles the response and the economy tanks is potentially disastrous for Trump's re-election.

Not gonna speculate on what is likely to happen, though.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

It depends on his actions, obviously. He should act "tough" and it will help him.


Economical impact is hard to predict rn, but from what I've read, economy is likely to get hit ~now and rebound before election that it it will help Trump. Assumption here is that it is NOT going go ~pandemic etc.

[Gass3268]

Coronavirus is canceled, Larry Kudlow says so:

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1232372971387285504?s=21

[Agonized-Statism]

That's a tough one. Pandemic means economic slowdown but increased support for isolationism and lower turnout.

[538Electoral]

No effect.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Why is it that a virus that trump has no control over could hurt him? It’s not like he caused the virus to occur

Obama got killed on Ebola in 2014 and this looks like it could be worse.

Just by virtue of it being contagious due to being airborne makes it infinitely worse. Ebola was only able to be contracted by an exchange of bodily fluids, yet people freaked out anyway.

[Flyersfan232]

Why is it that a virus that trump has no control over could hurt him? It’s not like he caused the virus to occur

Obama got killed on Ebola in 2014 and this looks like it could be worse.

Just by virtue of it being contagious due to being airborne makes it infinitely worse. Ebola was only able to be contracted by an exchange of bodily fluids, yet people freaked out anyway.

Was Ebola even a issue by November 2014?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Why is it that a virus that trump has no control over could hurt him? It’s not like he caused the virus to occur

Obama got killed on Ebola in 2014 and this looks like it could be worse.

Just by virtue of it being contagious due to being airborne makes it infinitely worse. Ebola was only able to be contracted by an exchange of bodily fluids, yet people freaked out anyway.

Was Ebola even a issue by November 2014?

If I remember correctly Republicans, as always, made it an issue.

[SnowLabrador]

It probably won't have much impact.

[Meclazine for Israel]

To knock Bernie Sanders off the top of the Primary race, all you have to do is:

1. Wait until he has a big flu cough in the middle of the debates;
2. Mention Coronavirus every time he coughs.

And people say I know nothing about politics.

[AGA]

To preface, I am not at all happy with this Coronavirus outbreak. It is killing people and damaging the global economy, including my portfolio. But could the slowdown of the US economy coupled with discontent with Trump's response be what ends his reelection chances? Hate to sound alarmist, but is this the 2020 recession everyone was talking about?

[Adam Griffin]

[AGA]

It's the economic impact that matters. Total death count will likely be less than that of this season's common flu.

[Roll Roons]

TBF, considered that Trump and the three most likely Democratic nominees are all over 70, with the latter three pushing 80...

[Adam Griffin]

It's the economic impact that matters. Total death count will likely be less than that of this season's common flu.

If just a few hundred people in the US die, the stock market isn't going to be hampered substantially or long-term by this. The only way it's a concern is if it develops into a pandemic, which...see above. No reason to act like a somewhat deadlier variation of a flu-like illness is going to cause a recession unless it becomes completely unleashed. Markets are panicking because of multiple factors right now (including "it's long overdue for this s[inks]t to crash" & "Democratic nominee Bernie Sanders").

[Arizona Iced Tea]

No, I think he will survive if he gets sick from it. He has the best doctors in the world in the White House.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

What are you trying to show here?  That Trump's supporters are much more likely to die if it becomes a pandemic?

[Adam Griffin]

What are you trying to show here?  That Trump's supporters are much more likely to die if it becomes a pandemic?

Yes.

Of course, if it does become a pandemic, there are wider-reaching effects on the economy and the perception of the government if, say, one million Americans die from it and the response was completely botched from the start. How many people who aren't diehard Democrats are going to blame the deaths of their family members and friends on Trump's handling of the crisis in the weeks before Election Day?

[538Electoral]

Unlikely. This is no worse than any common flu. News media is making the DOW worse by striking fear like they always do.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unlikely. This is no worse than any common flu. News media is making the DOW worse by striking fear like they always do.

The Fox polls have Bernie leading 49-42, TX will go Dem and McConnell is losing in an internal polling,  its over😎😎😎

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Unlikely. This is no worse than any common flu. News media is making the DOW worse by striking fear like they always do.

The Fox polls have Bernie leading 49-42, TX will go Dem and McConnell is losing in an internal polling,  its over😎😎😎

Yes

[It’s so Joever]

Unlikely. This is no worse than any common flu. News media is making the DOW worse by striking fear like they always do.

...”Opinions” like these are false and misleading.