John Smith Survives - A UK Timeline

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

2007 Election Part 2:

While campaigning in the Labour-Lib Dem marginal seat of Rochdale in late March, Gordon Brown met with a former Labour voter Gillian Duffy. After discussing immigration and a host of other issues, Gordon Brown left the campaign stop in his Prime Ministerial Car. While his mic was still on he was heard calling Ms. Duffy a, “bigoted woman”. As you can imagine, the Sun and other Conservative outlets ate up Brown’s words like candy. He returned to apologize but the damage was done, and Labour's poll numbers suffered.

After "bigotgate" and several other gaffes by Gordon Brown, Leader of the Opposition Ken Clarke challenged Brown to a leaders debate in election eve. In the one-on-one debate, the skilled debate Ken Clarke appeared calm, cool, collected and most importantly—like a Prime Minister. Conversely, Brown, who never really got comfortable at the dispatch box, appeared squeamish and irritable. While they debated each other on the issues to the draw, it was difficult to argue that Gordon Brown didn't lost the debate.

The leader of the Liberal Democrats, Menzies Campbell, unsuccessfully sued the BBC for not inviting him to the debate. The Liberal Democrats had had a rocky campaign as the Tories ate into much of their vote share with their relatively pro-European policies, while Labour held firm against them with their anti-war positions. Most pollsters predict that the Lib Dem's vote share under their uninspiring leader will go down—perhaps significantly.

Adding to Labour’s woes, new economic numbers were released on April 3rd showed economic growth down from Q4 2006 at only 0.5%; they also showed unemployment rising for the first time since 2005 with the economy shedding 30,000 jobs in February and March. This, in conjunction with the leaders debate and bigotgate, all lead to a late Conservative surge in the polls. The aggregate of all polling shows Labour losing around 20 seats, but not their overall majority.

Final General Election Polls:

Labour 39% (330 Seats)
Conservatives 37% (275 Seats)
Liberal Democrats 14% (15 Seats)

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

2007 Party Manifestos:

The Labour manifesto adopted in 2007 was arguably more progressive than in 2003. In their manifesto Labour argued for increased integration with Europe but did not advocate for joining the Euro or even holding a referendum on the Euro. Additionally, Labour argued for a Universal Basic Income for all Britons—something they could not accomplish in the last Parliament. Otherwise, Labour’s manifesto included the standard social democrat spending plans, increased spending on welfare, cutting waste and reducing the deficit, and shrinking military spending.

The Conservative was considerably more moderate in 2007 than in 2003; the manifesto was reflective of Ken Clarke’s strong push to the center of the political spectrum. The Conservatives advocated for a Euro referendum within the first year of their government. The Conservatives pledged to stick to Labour spending plans in an effort to appeal to disaffected middle-class Labour voters.

The Liberal Democrats stuck out a middle path between the big two, calling for liberal social policies, more economically conservative spending plans, and pro-Europeanism.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Election Night -

Dimbleby - “As Big Ben Strikes 10 we can now announce the results of our exit poll,

Labour 308 Seats -40
Conservative 308 Seats +54
Liberal Democrat 13 Seats -13

... I am sure I speak for all the nation when I say this is an absolute shock. I do not think anyone was predicting that Labour would lose their overall majority much less tie the Conservatives in numbers of seats..”

10:40pm - Houghton and Sunderland South Result: Lab 54.0%, Con 31.0%, Lib 9.0 = Labour Majority of 18,719 or 23.0%.

Dimbleby - "This is about a swing of 9% to the Conservatives on the notional boundaries, which is more friendly to the Conservatives than our exit poll would suggest. Mr. Brown must be very nervous up in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath..."

11:30pm - Blyth Valley: Labour 43.4%, Con 23.5%, Lib 19.0%, UKIP 10.1% = Labour Majority of 7,007 or 19.9%. Swing of 6% from Labour to the Conservatives.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Election Night Continued

11:50pm: The Conservatives make their first flip of the night in the West Midlands seat of Nuneaton. The incumbent Labour MP will fall to the Conservative Marcus Jones on an 8% swing. Conservative Majority: 3,678 or 6.5%.

12:20am: In a huge surprise Labour MP Gisela Stuart is defeated in Birmingham Edgbaston on a 7% Conservative swing. Both these results are more Conservative-leaning than the exit poll would suggest.

Dimbleby - “If you recall, this was Labour’s first flip in 1999. Labour’s majority, and by extension Mr. Brown’s career, seems to be disappearing right before our eyes...”

Seats as of 2:45 am -
Conservative 152, Labour 134, Liberal Democrat 4

Dimbleby - “Results are now coming in at a very quick pace and looks like our exit poll underestimated the Conservatives. Are we looking at a Conservative majority?”

Malcolm Rifkind MP (Conservative - Kensington) - “I certainly hope so, it is looking more and more of a possibility as results come. The fact that we are doing so well surely rests on the Leadership of Ken Clarke...”

Oona King MP (Labour - Bethnal Green and Bow) - “Sadly, my friend may be right. I think this election result is a sign that Labour has moved far outside the mainstream and that we need to move back to the political center...”

2:50am: Seen as a potential future leader by many, Home Secretary Jaccqui Smith is narrowly returned on a small majority or 1,042 or 2.4%

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

 Election Night Continued

4:00 am - Gordon Brown is returned to his seat of Kirkaldy and Cowdenbeath with a slightly increased majority of 23,456 or 50.5% over the SNP. In his acceptance speech Brown apologized to those in his party, “...this election has not been what we thought it was. I will resign as Labour leader this afternoon and return to the back-benches to work for the people of this constituency and the working-class people of Britain.”

4:55 am - Leader of the Opposition Ken Clarke is re-elected as MP for Rushcliffe in Nottinghamshire. He increased his majority to 17,089 or 33.3% over the Liberal Democrats. In his victory speech he began laying out his vision for Britain “... I think it's safe to say the Conservatives will enter government either in a coalition or hopefully as a majority party. We will restore stability and strength to this nation and bring prosperity to all Britons.”

Dimbleby - With a Conservative flip in Dewsbury and a hold in Esher and Walton, it looks like the Conservatives may miraculously get a majority this morning.”

Seats as of 6:45 am

Conservative 317, Labour 272, Liberal Democrats 10

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

The Morning After

7:00 am - Dimbleby - “ The Conservatives will gain the seat of Sherwood in Nottinghamshire by a very margin of 40 votes after several recounts. This was fairly low on the Tory’s target lists. And being their 326th seat it will be the seat that will confirm their overall majority in Parliament...”

Seats as of 7:00 am -
Conservative 326, Labour 284, Liberal Democrats 10

12:00 pm - Gordon Brown leaves Downing Street for the last time to resign as Prime Minister. In his farewell speech he said he is proud of his term as he, “left Britain in a better place than he found it”. Shortly after Brown resigned Mr. Ken Clarke visited Her Majesty and was appointed Prime Minister.

In his first address to the nation as Prime Minister Ken Clarke laid out his plans for the Government over the next parliament. In a phrase used so much over the campaign by the Tories he claimed his government will “stop the madness” and bring true prosperity. Clarke scheduled the Queen’s Speech for the next Tuesday, 10 April 2007.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

2007 Full Election Results

Conservative: Ken Clarke (Rushcliffe)- 331 +79 - 38.9%
Labour: Gordon Brown (Dunfermline East) 285 -64 - 36.2%
Liberal Democrats: Menzies Campbell (North East Fife) - 11 -17 - 16.7%

Labour lost seats all across England. They took a particularly bad beating in London where they barely managed to hold a majority of the city's 73 seats. In the commuter belt they reduced to holding Slough and Luton; even in their stronghold of the West Midlands Conurbation they lost several seats. Of course Yorkshire, Merseyside, and North East England all returned significant, if reduced, Labour majorities. In Wales and Scotland the Labour vote held up surprisingly well with the Conservatives only gaining four seats in Wales and staying even (with one mp) in Scotland.

Conservative MP David Davis said of the new government, “We made a lot of promises during the campaign, it’d be best if we kept them...”

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

The Opening of Parliament - 10 April 2007

In the Queen’s Speech the newly elected Conservative Government laid out their priorities.

Euro Referendum by the end of the year
No Cuts to NHS or other Welfare spending
Balancing the budget by cutting waste
If necessary, to raise taxes to shrink deficit
Streamline the welfare system
Recognition of same-sex marraige

A Guardian op-ed claimed that this Queen’s speech represented the return to “one nation conservatism”.

Great Offices of State:
Prime Minister Ken Clarke
Chancellor Oliver Letwin
Foreign Secretary William Hague
Home Secretary Dominic Grieve

Labour Leadership Election Next:

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

2007 Labour Leadership Election:

After Gordon Brown’s humiliating defeat at the hands of Ken Clarke, he promptly resigned as Labour leader and triggered a leadership election. Unlike in 2005 the party could not find a suitable candidate to unite around early on and was thus dragged out into months of factional warfare and bickering.

In a surprise to absolutely no one, Shadow Home Secretary (Gordon Brown remained Leader of the Opposition during the leadership election, and his shadow cabinet remained largely unchanged) Jaccqui Smith announced her campaign for leader. She had been posturing for the position since at least 2003 and had been lining up endorsements and gaining support from those on the right of the Labour Party for several years. Immediately, she is seen as a frontrunner in the race as she played an outsized role in the Brown ministry and would be the first woman leader of the Labour party.

However, Mr. Brown’s cabinet (and party) split into two when Shadow Chancellor Alistair Darling announced his candidacy. Smith ran to the left of Brown and Smith and gained the backing of the majority of the now-dominant soft-left MPs within the party. He did not secure the backing of the Socialist Campaign Group who elected to support John McDonnell once again.

MP Nominations: McDonnell 34, Smith 113, Darling 135 (McDonnell does not qualify)

Darling’s candidacy was predicated on the fact that Labour’s policies were fundamentally popular and with different leadership the party could be electable once again. Ms. Smith advocated the party move to the “radical center” to win back moderate Tories and Lib Dems. In a surprise to many Smith turns out to be a poor media performer and makes many gaffes. Alistair Darling runs a quiet campaign and lets Smith do the damage on herself.

By the end of the race, Jaccqui Smith goes from being the front-runner to barely in contention. The PLP and Trade Unions seem to be solidly in Darling’s camp and only the membership remains undecided.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

2007 Labour Leadership Election Results:

   

                           Electoral Bloc      - Unions   MPs    Membership    Total
Jaccqui Smith (MP for Worcester) -    43.1%   49.1%       58.0%    50.07%
Alistair Darling (MP for Edinburgh SW) - 56.9%   50.9%         42.0%    49.93%

In a much closer-than-it-should've-been race, Jaccqui Smith was narrowly elected as Labour leader. The media faults Darling's loss with too much association with Gordon Brown and his stench of defeat from his chancellorship. Ms. Smith is predicted to have much difficulty in steering her party to center with only a narrow mandate from the membership and unions and a majority of Labour MPs voting against her.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Euro Referendum:

The Euro Referendum was one of the Conservative Government’s keynote promises. Thus, only a week after the Queen’s Speech the Tories put forward legislation that would schedule the referendum in early August, giving the Government time to prepare for a new election and prove to the public their legitimacy.

Labour was split of the Euro with the majority of the party supporting joining the Euro but a vocal minority of hardcore left-wingers opposing it. Because of the split, Ms. Smith said she would campaign for the Euro but Labour would be officially neutral on the issue. Ken Clarke pushed hard to join the Euro in the campaign and staked his entire reputation on the referendum. This alienated many right-wing Eurosceptics in his party and they called for the Conservatives to be neutral on the referendum as well.

However, with Clarke’s men in control of the party machinery, the Conservatives were full-throated in their attempt to join the Euro. It was looking like it would be moderates v. extremist on both sides for the Euro referendum. When both major party leaders, and the Liberal Democrats’ new leader Vince Cable, on board for the Euro, it was looking like the referendum would head for an easy passage.

July Euro Poll:

Adopt the Euro: 58%, Keep the Pound: 42%
Adopt the Euro: 55%, Keep the Pound: 45%

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Euro Referendum Results:

Adopt the Euro: 59.17%, Keep the Pound: 41.83%

In a not-so-surprising result, the Euro Referendum passed comfortably in August 2007. Because the referendum was non-binding, Parliament passed legislation to join the Eurozone on 1 July 2008, soon after the European Union consented to the new law.

On the hard right and hard left there are cries to ignore the referendum, but they are largely ignored as the UK begins to leave the pound and join the Euro.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

2007 in Review

Although the economy slowed slightly in the first half of the year, growth picked up again Q3 and Q4 at 1.3% and 1.8% respectively. Unemployment continued its decline falling to around 5% in December 2007. Reflected in this growth was the newly elected Conservative Government’s popularity. Ken Clarke posted approval ratings in the high 50s and the Tories were far ahead in the polls.

Labour’s Smith had a difficult time appealing to new voters and many swing voters were turned off by her aloof leadership style. In Parliament she had one major victory when she whipped her party into supporting the Euro bill but behind her back many MPs were deeply concerned about her leadership skills.

Abroad the UK continued their headfirst dive into European integration. With a full-throated support in charge as PM, it appears that Britain is a part of Europe for good. Overseas, George W Bush’s troop surge in Iraq has mixed results as his popularity continues to plummet. Like his predecessors, Clarke chooses to keep a wide berth from any foreign quagmire in exchange for a closer relationship with Merkel and Chirac.

In more ominous economic news, there was a run on the Northern Rock Bank in September 2007; though this crisis (and subsequent nationalization) was handled well, it raised questions about the future health of the British economy.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

The Conservative Agenda Enacted:

With their biggest campaign promise achieved in the Euro Referendum, Ken Clarke set about enacting his party’s moderate agenada in late 2007 and early 2008. First off, the Conservative’s draft budget for 2008 stuck to Labour spending plans in the NHS and other welfare programs. Chancellor Oliver Letwin was quoted as saying “It is our highest priority to provide the best services to Britions. We will not cut funding... but we must raise taxes to balance the budget.”

Labour left office with a sizable budget deficit in 2007; Ken Clarke’s pledge to “stop the madness” required balancing the budget. Thus, in late 2007, Letwin raised taxes on upper and middle class Britons. Many posh Tory voters felt betrayed in their party to raise taxes in what was seen as a “Red Tory” move.

In addition to angering a portion of their base, Mr. Clarke also pushed hard for the legalization of same-sex marriage in early 2008 in what was agin seen as a betrayal by many religious Conservatives.

Despite the government’s somewhat controversial policies Mr. Clarke and his party maintained high popularity and poll numbers into early 2008 as the government enjoyed a long honeymoon period.

Ken Clarke Approval Ratings 31 December 2007:

Approve 54%
Disapprove 38%

Next General Election Polls 31 December 2007:

Conservatives 42%
Labour 32%
Liberal Democrats 22%

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Euro Day:

On 1 July, 2008 the United Kingdom officially joined the Eurozone and with it became a full member of the burgeoning European superstate. Euros were distributed by the European Central Bank to British businesses, banks, and the British Government. Any citizen of the UK could exchange money at an ATM or at their bank free of charge. The Pound would still be accepted as legal tender for six months and could be exchanged at various banks for up to one year. The Euro was tremendously popular and rapidly replaced the pound such that within one month of Euro Day a study showed that nearly two-thirds of Britions were using exclusively Euros.

In 2008 the Conservative Government continued pursuing their moderate-conservative agenda. Notably, Same-sex marriage was legalized in April, with the UK becoming one of the first nations to legalize the practice. Even as the economy slowly hit the skids over the summer of 2008 (shrinking 0.4% in Q2, and only growing 0.2% in Q3 combined with rising unemployment), the Conservatives boasted relatively high polling numbers by the British public, as Labour continued to flounder without a strong personality as a leader.

Next General Election Polling

Conservatives 38%
Labour 34%
Liberal Democrats 24%

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

The 2008 Financial Crisis

In the fall of 2008, the NYSE crashed. All across the world, including Britain, markets fell and economies suffered. The crash was a result of many, many factors: from lax financial laws, to subprime mortgages, and even the crash of the housing market across most of the western world.

In the UK the effects of the crash were severe, the FTSE 100 lost nearly 45% of its value since the peak in late 2007 while unemployment continued rising as many businesses shuttered. Growth dropped from 0.2% in Q3 to -2.5% in Q4 with many experts predicting a recession is imminent.

In response to the severe economic crisis Chancellor Oliver Letwin explored a number of options in November 2008: the UK’s recent entry into the Eurozone hamstrung the government’s ability to print new money as that power lay with ECB, parliament did pass a stimulus/public works bill trying to revive the failing finance and industrial sectors but the economy was already oversaturated with public money from Gordon Brown’s stimulus in 2006. The government’s inability to cut interest rates and their lack of control lead to rapid inflation and loss of confidence in the British economy. As the EU entered recession in late 2008, it looked certain that Britain was about to suffer through a deep recession.

The government suffered a collapse in popularity because of their perceived poor handling of the affair, while Labour languished with an even more unpopular leader (Jaccqui Smith whose aloofness about the whole crisis destroyed what little popularity she had cultivated with the Labour base) in the upper-twenties. The Lib Dems experienced a surge with their new eloquent and down-to-earth leader Vince Cable.

31 December 2008 General Election Polls:


Conservative 33%
Labour 29%
Liberal Democrats 34%

[Intell]

Have the Tories come in third- that would be hilarious!