John Smith Survives - A UK Timeline

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

December 2001 Polling Update:

John Smith Personal Approval Rating: 57% Approve, 35% Disapprove

Next General Election Polls:

Labour 41%
Conservative 34%
Liberal Democrat 20%

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

2002 Elections -

Legislation signed into law in 2000 and 2001 scheduled several elections in the Spring of 2002.

Welsh Assembly Election: 4 April 2002

Labour 31
Conservative 9
PC 17
Liberal Democrats 5

The results of the election enabled Labour, under Leader Rhodri Morgan, to form a majority Labour Government in Wales.

Scottish Parliament Election: 4 April 2002

Labour 54
Conservative 16
SNP 37
Liberal Democrats 19

Scottish Labour formed a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats with Jack McConnell as First Minister. Both devolved elections resulted in Labour First Ministers, cementing the party's dominance of the United Kingdom.

Constitution Referendum: 9 May, 2002

Yes 80.1%
No: 19.9%

In a major personal achievement for the Prime Minister, the Constitution was passed overwhelming by the British electorate. Subsequently, the Constitution was officially adopted on 1 June by the Queen's hand. June 1 was promptly declared "Constitution Day" and a bank holiday by parliament in a campaign to raise awareness and acceptance.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

2002 in Review:

With falling approval ratings and a less than ideal economy, many in the media thought that Smith had spent all of his political capital. But they were proven wrong, in a policy speech in May after the referendum Smith laid out his plan for the second half of his term. He outlined the Rights Package of 2002. These were a package of bills that expanded workers and teachers protections and rights, increased the minimum wage from 4.20 pounds per hour to 6 pounds per hour whilst still linked to inflation, and extended civil union rights to same-sex couples.

As you can expect, the bills created much brouhaha among the right-wingers in the House of Commons but the Government successfully steered all legislation through parliament by the end of the year; although some bills passed by narrower margins.

In economic news unemployment rose slightly as the effects of the global recession lingered. The UK never officially entered recession but the economy still grew at a slow rate of 1.3% over the year 2002.

Polling for the next general election showed the Conservatives topping Labour for the first time since 1995. In non-political news Princess Margaret and the Queen Mother sadly passed in February and March respectively. Queen Elizabeth celebrated her 50th year on the throne in 2002 as well.

Next Election Polls:

Conservative 37%
Labour 36%
Liberal Democrats 23%

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

2003 -

Good economic news returned for the UK as the global economy picked up in 2003. Unemployment fell in the first two quarters to 3.9%. The economy grew at a much faster clip of 3.5% for the year 2003. Gordon Brown declared, “Our Economy has rarely been better.” The better economy was reflected in the rise of Labour in the opinion polls going from a deficit of 1% to a lead of 10% over the Tories by the summer of 2003.

Next Election Opinion Polls July 2003:

Labour 43%
Conservative 33%
Liberal Democrats 20%

The Leader of the Opposition made a series of gaffes while on a national “Know the Tories” tour. The tour, which was supposed to reintroduce Tory policies over the spring to the public, only reinforced Portillo’s unpopularity and the sense that he is out of touch with the British public.

The biggest story internationally was the US invasion of Iraq in March 2003. Smith flew to the United States in January to personally tell Bush that he could not commit British troops to the war. Much like Wilson and Johnson before them, this refusal of support strained the special relationship. However, at home the decision to not commit any troops was quite popular and contributed to Labour’s high polling numbers. Smith was seen as decisive and looking out for Britain's best interests; many commentators saw his refusal to join the war as a turn to Europe away from America.

One major piece of legislation passed by the Labour government was the Modified Immigration Act of 2003. Pushed by newly installed Home Secretary Jaccqui Smith (MP for Worcester since 1995) as her brainchild, the act provided for increased immigration from both EU and non-EU nations. The law would include loosened restrictions that would increase projected immigrartion from 425,000 per year to 600,000 per year. The law was quite unpopular in the public but Smith endorsed it saying, “More immigration will not only make us stronger, but it will make ALL Britons more prosperous.” The Immigration Act received royal assent in April 2003.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

3 August 2003 - An Announcement from the Prime Minister:

“I have just chaired a meeting with the cabinet and have spoken to Her Majesty the Queen. I have decided to dissolve parliament and call for a general election on 25 September. “

In a surprise to many in parliament and in the media, Prime Minister John Smith unexpectedly called an election in late September. This comes as Labour tops the most recent opinion polls by 10% and is expected to make at least limited against the Opposition Tories. Pundits hail this as a savvy move to both increase Smith’s majority and gain a mandate from the voters for continued Labour policies after almost four years in government.

The rosy economy, under the management of Smith’s expected successor Gordon Brown, also boosts Labour’s polling numbers. Many pundits expect Brown to play a leading role in the campaign as the two Scotsman are a very popular duo across the nation. Portillo welcomes the election saying “There is no better opportunity to show the nation how Conservative policies help them than through a general election.”

August 3rd Polling:

Labour 42%
Conservative 33%
Liberal Democrats: 21%

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Election 2003:

The election is on! At the Labour conference their new manifesto is released: “Sustaining prosperity, a plan for an equal future”. Drifting to the left compared to previous Labour manifestos, the Manifesto outlines several key planks from the 1999 Manifesto that were not accomplished and includes new initiatives such as aggressive tackling of climate change, entry into the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, introduction of a Universal Basic Income, expansion of the NHS and other welfare programmes, and a renewed focus on shrinking the deficit by cutting waste and raising taxes.

Conversely, the Conservative manifesto is very much a move to the right. In a sign of digging in his heels, Portillo calls for less regulation, less taxes, and less Europe. Many pundits see this as a departure from his earlier moves to moderate in parliament. Charles Kennedy, the new leader of the Liberal Democrats, struggles to break through to new voters.

On the Campaign Trail, Gordon Brown makes perhaps more appearances than John Smith himself. Gordon Brown plays a leading role in the campaign and looks to reconnect the Government with working-class voters in the North. Many pundits claim Smith’s relative absence as a sign of his failing health and power but he quells this with a rigorous swing through London and the Commuter Belt in the late weeks of August.

Poll Released on 1 September:

Labour 41% 345 Seats
Conservative 36% 265 Seats
Liberal Democrats 17% 20 Seats

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Election 2003 Continued:

In early September, during a rally in Wolverhampton, Conservative Leader Portillo went on a tirade against the globalist policies of his rival. “He has opened up immigration at the expense of Britons, he has turned back our allies, and he has immersed us in a European Superstate. Labour’s policies are not for Britain!” Many in the media saw this as a poor, even racist, choice of words. Naturally, Labour spin doctors jumped on Portillo’s words to paint the entire party as totally out of date.

The campaign as a whole was extraordinarily vile compared to past elections. Smith, and especially Brown, viscously attacked the Tories for being a roadblock to progress in Britain; at a large rally in Durham, Brown told many former coal miners, “The Tories took everything away from you once, don’t be so naive to think they won’t do it again.”

Iraq became a major campaign issue, with the Tories for the war and Labour against. Portillo dug into Smith for “abandoning” an ally in a time of need. Public opinion thought differently as non-intervention was much more popular than going to war. The campaign progressed and polls tightened somewhat as they almost always do. On election eve the polls were:

Labour 40% 339 Seats
Conservative 37% 275 Seats
Liberal Democrats 18% 15 Seats

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Election Night -

Dimbleby - “As Big Ben Strikes 10 we can now announce the results of our exit poll.

Labour 348 Seats +7
Conservative 253 Seats -5
Liberal Democrat 26 Seats -2

... this has got to be a disappointing result for both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats as neither made any headway against Labour but may have actually lost seats. In Airdrie and Shotts they must be very happy at this result, if the poll is correct Smith has an expanded mandate to govern this Kingdom...”

10:50pm - Sunderland South Result: Lab 64.0%, Con 23.0%, Lib 11.0 = Labour Majority of 18,719 or 41.0%.

Dimbleby - "This is about a swing of 2.0% to Labour, which is in line with our exit poll..."

11:15pm - Hamilton South Result: Lab 57.0%, Con 6.0%, SNP 22%, Lib, 9.5% = Labour Majority of 9,225 or 35%.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Election Night Continued -

12:40 am - Labour makes its first flip of the night in Welwyn Hatfield on a small swing of 1.7%

2:00 am - Labour is sporadically flipping seats across the nation with two flips in West Yorkshire: North East and North West Leeds, with swings of around 3% apiece

Dimbleby - “Results are now coming in at a very quick pace and looks like our exit poll was correct in predicting mild Labour gains.

Seats at 2:30 am -

Labour 161 Conservative 90 Liberal Democrat 7

Jaccqui Smith MP (Home Secretary) - “The results are a reassurance that the British people approve of the Labour government and their record in power. I’m looking forward to another successful term in Government...”

Francis Maude MP (Chairman of the Conservative Party) - “I somewhat agree with Mrs. Smith here, the Conservative Party needs to rebrand and rebuild”

Dimbleby - “Should Portillo resign?”

Maude - “Absolutely”

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Election Night Continued:

3:20 am - Michael Portillo holds his seat of Enfield Southgate with a reduced majority of 5,900 or 13%.
   “... I want to make it clear that my years as Leader of the Conservative Party have been the most fulfilling in my life; however, I will not lead my party into another general election. I look forward to the next term serving my constituents on the backbenches.”

5:00 am - The Prime Minister’s seat of Airdrie and Shotts in Scotland returns him with a slightly increased majority of 21,400 or 47% - one of the safest Labour seats in Britain.
   “... Labour will continue to be in government to improve the lives of working people and ALL Britons for the years ahead. I look forward to facilitating this as your Prime Minister...”

5:55 am - Dimbleby - “We can now officially project a majority Labour Government with North Swindon declaring. The government appears poised to increase their majority to 45 - 55 seats.”

Seats as of 5:55 am -

Labour 326 Conservative 212 Liberal Democrats 21

11:15 am - John Smith visits Buckingham Palace where the Queen presumably asks him to form a government in her name. Additionally, Portillo visits the Conservative Party headquarters in The City where he officially tenders his resignation and announces he will stand down upon the election of a new leader in January.

(Smith returns to Downing Street) - “The Queen has asked me to form a government, I have done so and the Queen’s Speech will take place one week from today. I will work tirelessly over the next parliament to achieve equality and better the lives of the great British people...”

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Full Election Results

Labour: John Smith (Airdrie and Shotts)- 349 +8 - 40.9%
Conservative: Michael Portillo (Enfield Southgate) - 252 -6 - 34.5%
Liberal Democrats: Charles Kennedy (Ross, Skye, and Lochaber)- 26 -2 - 21.0%

The election was more or less a draw with only slight Labour gains and losses for everyone else. Labour flipped a few seats in Scotland and the Midlands but lost net seats in the London commuter belt and in rural counties like Northamptonshire and Hampshire. The Labour vote also held up well in the Greater London Area with no seats flipping. For the first time in many decades the Tories were shut out of Scotland and Wales with the exception of one seat apiece (Monmouth and Galloway).

Labour retains majority party status in Britain with them enlarging their majority to a comfortable 52 seats. Backbench Labour MP Dennis Skinner said on the election night victory, “It’s nice to show the damned Tories who is the natural party of government again.”

Queen’s Speech - 2 October 2003

Her majesty laid out some of the government’s objectives in their second term in power.

-Joining the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM)
-Tackling the danger of Climate Change through increased environmental regulations
-Winter Fuel Payment
-Universal Basic Income for all Britons
-Large Expansion of NHS funding

Many in the media think that, even for the political titan John Smith, that the speech is too ambitious and overreaching (especially UBI). However, the next day in Parliament Smith sets about advancing Labour’s manifesto when Health Minister Frank Dobson introduces the NHS Relief Bill of 2003.



Tory Leadership Election Next

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Conservative Leadership Contest

After the announcement of Portillo’s intended resignation, several Troy candidates came out of the woodwork to contest the following election. The most prominent of who was Ken Clarke—one of the “big beasts” of the Thatcher-Major government. However, after Potillo came to power in 1995, Clarke clashed with him ideologically and was demoted from Chancellor to Secretary of State for Defence.

Eventually, the more right-wing Thatcherites coalesced around Iain Duncan Smith, the Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions. David Davis also ran as the outsider candidate and Liam Fox ran as the Eurosceptic candidate.

Many in the media discounted Davis and Fox and quickly saw that the main battle would be between IDS and Clarke. Although he would not say it himself, IDS ran very much as the Portillo continuity candidate. In early December, after nominations were closed and all other candidates eliminated, the decision for leader was left up to Conservative party members.

Parliamentary Nominations
Iain Duncan Smith: 101    Ken Clarke: 111

IDS campaigned ferociously against Labour’s proposed and current policies; he especially campaigned against John Smith’s continuing Europe project. IDS attacked the Government’s Europe policies as “ fundamentally anti-British”. Many in the Conservative Party agreed with IDS but after two elections thought it might be time to move on to a more moderate style of leadership. Newly elected MP for Henley Boris Johnson—a Eurosceptic himself— said, “I’m voting for Clarke because he can win.”

Ken Clarke ran a very relaxed and jovial campaign. Of course he campaigned in favor of the EU and generally more liberal social policies, but he emphasized his role in the Thatcher government and made it known he was perhaps one of the only Conservatives that could stand up to the colossus of John Smith.


At the Party Conference in January the results are announced...

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

2003-2004 Conservative Party Leadership Election Results:

Ken Clarke: 50.7% (130,196)
IDS: 49.3% (127,628)

In a surprising result Ken Clarke is elected as narrowly elected as Leader of the Conservative Party and as Leader of the Opposition. Pundits expect him to have a hell of a time uniting his party over Europe and leading a defeated party against the popular John Smith. Many think that such a narrow margin of victory will hamper the new leader over the current Parliament. Only time will tell how his tenure as Leader will go.

   “Mark my words, I will lead this party into Government”
- Ken Clarke at the 11 January 2004 Conservative Party Conference

Next General Election Polls

Labour 49%
Conservative 31%
Liberal Democrat 16%

John Smith Approval Rating

Approve 66%
Disapprove 30%

Portillo's Goodbye:

On 7 January 2004 at his last PMQS as Leader of the Opposition, Michael Portillo was thanked and applauded by many on all sides of the house. Even though many disagreed with the leader, no one could question his integrity—not even his rival John Smith who graciously thanked him for his service. Portillo has expressed his desire return to the being a backbencher and has rejected any further leadership ambitions.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Into the Next Parliament

On the day after the Queen’s Speech, Health Minister Frank Dobson introduced the NHS Relief Bill of 2003. The bill would massively increase public funding to the strained National Health Service. Attached to the bill there is also funding for new hospitals and ambulances and upgrades for existing ones. The bill was speedily shepherded through Parliament and received royal assent on November 15th.

Parliament then quickly passed the Winter Payment Act of 2003 in December which provides a sum for those older than 65 to heat their homes during the cold season. Predictably, both these bills were popular among the Labour backbenchers and were passed easily.



In non-Parliament news, on November 19th President George W Bush visited London. Between his visits with the Queen and John Smith there are truly massive protests against his conduct of the Iraq War. Many on the left of the Labour party question why the Prime Minister even met with the President at all.

As the new year 2004 beings, John Smith began preparations and negotiations with the European Union to facilitate the UK’s re-entry into European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

The British Entry Into the ERM

Shortly after the Conservative Party Leadership Election, John Smith signaled to the European Commission that the United Kingdom’s intentions to join the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. Joining the currency union would peg the British Pound to the Euro and is seen widely as a stepping stone to the UK joining the Eurozone.

In February Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown introduced the ERM Act of 2004. The language of the act was very simple, the UK would rejoin the ERM and (in order to satisfy the non-negligible group of left-wing Labour Leavers) if the government wishes to fully join Eurozone they must put it to a referendum. The referendum’s earliest possible date would be 1 June 2006, two years after the UK is set to join the ERM and the earliest possible date for the UK to join the Eurozone.

In Parliament Labour and the Liberal Democrats both closed ranks around the bill with only a few defectors on Labour’s side. The story in the Conservative Party is quite different. Newly elected leader Ken Clarke professed his support for the bill and instructed his party to vote for the bill. He explained his decision, “We campaigned against Europe twice and lost, now it’s time we listen to the people.” Immediately, leading Eurosceptics in his cabinet and on the backbenches denounced his decision and indicated they would defy the whip and vote against the bill. In the end, Conservative MPs voted 187 - 65 in favor of the bill in a strong showing of support for the new leader.

Overall, the Bill passed 550 - 80 and the UK entered the ERM in June.

General Election Polls April 2004:

Labour 41%
Conservative 34%
Liberal Democrat 22%

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

2004 in Review:

The ambitious and far-reaching record of the Labour government came to a screeching halt in the first full year of their second term in Government. As the Modified Immigration Act of 2003 came into effect in 2004, the number of foreigners streaming into the UK skyrocketed. In the summer, riots protesting immigration spread through “Middle Britain” in May. This time, however, the media railed against the Labour government and their lack of action. John Smith went on a televised appeal to the rioters and counter-rioters to stop the violence, but he just looked tired, frail, and ineffective.

According to a poll taken in August 2004 65% of white Britons felt that their lives were negatively affected by Eastern European immigrants and that the UK should accept less of them. Home Secretary Jaccqui Smith in a widely publicized gaffe said the “people who do not like immigrants here are either stupid or vote Conservative.” She was sacked from her post because of that comment but still retained a minor position in the cabinet as Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.

The various crises came to a head on 12 December with several coordinated bombings of the London Underground. These attacks killed 96 people and injured over a 1000. These attacks send the government into a tailspin and send Labour’s poll ratings into the ground. At the memorial the following Sunday, John Smith visits the families of the dead and wounded and delivers a positive speech. As he is stepping into his Prime Ministerial Car he collapses and is rushed to the hospital. A few hours later, he is released fully recovered. In PMQs the following week, he addresses his health saying that his collapse seems to have been an isolated incident and his health is on the mend.

General Election Polls December 31st 2004:

Labour 32%
Conservative 39%
Liberal Democrats 25%

John Smith Approval Ratings:

Approve 35%
Disapprove 46%

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Devaluation:

With Labour’s polls ratings in the gutter with immigration and terrorism dominating the political scene, the good economy was seen as the only thing keeping the Government afloat. Unfortunately, in an eerie repeat of 1992, the British Pound came under intense speculation in the beginning of 2005 as concerns were raised about the stability and growth outlook of the British economy by the recent domestic issues. By February, after months of being rocked by riots and terroism (rebranded by the Tories as the Year of Discontent), the British pound came under intense pressure from speculators. In a cabinet meeting in late January, Chancellor Gordon Brown said the UK would likely have to crash out of the currency union soon. Smith refused this and demanded the UK stay in the ERM.

In a solution to the growing economic crisis, Gordon Brown devalued the British Pound Sterling by 10% which would allow the UK to stay in the ERM. Careful to avoid Wilson’s “pound in your pocket” blunder, Smith and Brown carefully and truthfully laid out the effects of devaluation to British Public. However, it seems whatever choice they could make when speaking to the public about devaluation would be wrong. On 2 February, the day of the devaluation, the London Stock Exchange combined lost 8% of its value and declined for some days after as investor’s lost confidence in the UK economy.

In the following months, the economic expansion since the early nineties came to a halt. The economy grew 0.1% in Q1 2004 and declined -1.6% in Q2. In Q3 the economy barely stayed out of recession with 0.3% growth, and in Q4 the economy declined another -0.9%. Naturally, Labour’s numbers dropped even more with the Conservatives at times 15% or more ahead as a sense of malaise settled over Britain.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

John Smith’s resignation

As anybody could see by the summer of 2005, John Smith’s days as Prime Minister were numbered. After his very public health scare in late 2004, many thought he would resign there and then. However, he continued in a zombified form for the next 10 months as Britain and his Government lurched from crisis to crisis and his personal popularity and Labour’s popularity collapsed. According to aides, Smith had planned to retire sometime in late 2004 but first riots, then terrorism, and then the economic crisis postponed his resignation.

Finally on 2 August 2005, with the threat of recession somewhat subsided, Smith resigned as Leader of the Labour Party and triggered a leadership election. The results of the election will be announced on 20 October and Smith is scheduled to resign as Prime Minister the next day.

As he left 10 Downing Street on 21 October to be succeeded by the new Leader of the Labour Party, a reporter for the BBC described the scene, “This a dynamic man wasted away by his own policies that he so deeply believed in. Devolution, a Constitution, the ERM, House of Lords reform, the Bills of Rights, Immigration, and so many more policies were enacted by his Government...It’s hard to not argue that he may be the most transformative PM since Thatcher or even Attlee...”

31 July 2005, John Smith Approval Rating:

Approve 27%
Disapprove 62%

Next General Election Polls:

Conservative 43%
Labour 27%
Liberal Democrats 25%

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

2005 Labour Leadership Election:

Upon being notified of John Smith’s planned resignation, the NEC set out the schedule for the following Leadership Election; the new Leader will be officially appointed Leader of the Labour Party on October 20 and will become Prime Minister the next day. On 6 August, the Socialist Campaign Group met and decided that their chair John McDonnell will contest the election.

Many in the PLP thought that only one candidate should run so the Party could maintain unity in a very difficult time for the Government. Gordon Brown, Smith’s protege and Chancellor of the Exchequer, is chosen as Smith’s heir apparent in a meeting of the PLP. Gordon Brown was easily nominated for the ballot getting support from 308 MPs. Many in the media comment that Gordon Brown should easily win the election if it is even contested.

The left-wing candidate John McDonnell narrowly failed to get on the ballot before the deadline on 15 September, meaning the leadership election became uncontested. At the Labour Party Conference in October, Brown is proclaimed as Leader and PM-designate. After meeting with the Queen on 21 October, Gordon Brown entered 10 Downing Street for the first time as PM. He said of his appointment, “I plan to make Britain stronger, safer, and more prosperous. I applaud my successor and all the great work he has done and wish him all the best as a backbencher...”. Leader of the Opposition Ken Clarke welcomes Brown to his new job, “Mr. Brown has some big shoes to fill. I hope he is successful as Prime Minister...”

In his first act in forming a Government Brown conducts a major cabinet reshuffle. He appoints Alistair Darling as Chancellor, reinstates Jaccqui Smith as Home Secretary in a major departure from John Smith’s policy, Hilary Benn as Foreign Secretary, Harriet Harman as Lord Chancellor and Justice Secretary, and Andy Burnham as Health Secretary.

A poll taken a month after Gordon Brown ascension shows Labour bouncing back during his honeymoon period:

Labour 37%
Conservative 41%
Liberal Democrat 19%

Brown Personal Ratings:

Approve 46%
Disapprove 39%

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

2005 in Review:

As the public became acquainted with their new Prime Minister, Gordon Brown went on an extensive campaign across the nation to “reintroduce” the Labour Party. He laid out his “5 Steps to Prosperity” plan to a crowd in Brent a month after he became Prime Minister. His plan called for:

-Cutting taxes for Britain’s middle class
-Injecting Billions of Pounds into the market as stimulus in the form of public works projects
-Postponing any referendums on the Euro
-Assimilation programs for Immigrants to stymie terrorism
-Stabilizing the British Pound

Chancellor Alistair Darling commented that the Government would start implementing these plans as soon as possible.

Abroad, 2005 saw a great tumult of change. In the United States the newly elected George W Bush continued conducting the War on Terror. John Smith, and later Gordon Brown, kept any talk of joining the coalition at an arm's length, and the “Special Relationship” remained in its frosty period. On the continent, the EU moved slowly towards integration with both France and the Netherlands ratifying the EU Constitution. Britain, as always, lingered on the outskirts and was reluctant to sign the Constitution.

Sadly, on 8 December 2005 former Prime Minister John Smith passed away in his sleep from a heart attack. At his funeral two weeks later, flocks of thousands of his supporters and politicians from all over the world attended his funeral. Giving his eulogy, Gordon Brown reiterated a common theme amongst historians and journalists, “With his great charisma and drive, no one can doubt that this man led the most transformative Government since the War...”

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Recovery:

Soon after assuming the Premiership, Gordon Brown put his aforementioned recovery plan before Parliament in early December 2005. The “5 Steps of Prosperity” plan had to jump through a series of hoops to be made into law. Chiefly, there was a large left-wing backbench rebellion over cutting the middle class tax rate. Jeremy Corbyn MP, “We have to fund the government somehow; if these cuts are to be successful and fiscally prudent, we must raise the rates on the rich and corporations to compensate.”

Eventually, Gordon Brown passed his first major legislative test when his government threaded the needle with most of the bills passing by only 10-15 votes by the end of January 2006. The Stimulus plan particularly saw intense opposition from right-wing Tories and was nearly voted down when several moderate Labour MPs rebelled against the Government.

After the recovery plan passed, the Labour Government established a long-sought, if forgotten, objective: giving London a directly elected Mayor and assembly. After a referendum in May 2006, where the measure passed overwhelmingly, a mayoral and assembly election is scheduled for April 2008.

As 2006 continued on, the effects of the Brown’s recovery plan became noticeable. Employment fell to 6% by the end of 2006 from a peak of 8.5% a year and a half earlier. The economy posted strong numbers in Q3 and Q4 with 2.0% growth as the malaise of 2005 seceded from the minds of the electorate. Remarkably, Labour’s poll numbers, and Brown’s approval ratings, steadily rose throughout 2006 from around a 5 point deficit to a 5 point lead.

Naturally, talk of a fall snap election swirled around, but Brown killed these rumors in August saying, “I do not think an election would be smart to have at this time, with the economy improving but not yet at 100%...” Private advisors would later say that Brown’s reluctance to call an election was due to Labour’s lead in the polls over the Conservatives in autumn 2006 not being large enough for a comfortable majority. 

Next General Election Polls 12/31/2006:

Labour 40%
Conservative 35%
Liberal Democrats 17%

Gordon Brown Approval Ratings:

Approve 51%
Disapprove 39%

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

2006 Welsh and Scottish Elections:

The second Scottish and Welsh Assembly Elections were held in April 2006. Signaling the growing popularity of Brown’s Government and the economic recovery, Labour made limited gains in both elections.

Welsh Elections 6 April 2006:

Labour 33 +2
PC 15 -2
Conservative 9 =
Liberal Democrats 5 =


Welsh First Minister Rhodri Morgan was returned for second term as First Minister with an increased majority in the Welsh Assembly.

Scottish Election 6 April 2006:

Labour 59 +4
SNP 31 -6
Liberal Democrats 20 +1
Conservative 17 +1

Remarkably, Labour gained seats in Scotland under the Scottish list system. Jack McConnell kept his job as First Minister and formed another Lib-Lab coalition to govern. The fall in the SNP vote is mostly contributed to a mediocre campaign by Alex Salmond and the popularity of Gordon Brown (and therefore Labour) in Scotland

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

2006 in Review:

The trauma and divide of 2004-2005 subsided in 2006 under the invigorated Brown Government. As a part of Gordon Brown’s stimulus plan, interest rates were cut to very low levels and a number of public works projects were commissioned by the Government. The majority of this stimulus money was sent in mandates to councils to build more council homes. However, a large chunk of stimulus money went to the Crossrail plan which would provide high speed rail across the South East and London.

During the Tory Party Conference in autumn 2006, Leader of the Opposition Ken Clarke pushed hard for an Euro referendum the next time there is a Conservative Government. His reasoning was, “With Labour opposing an Euro vote we must distinguish ourselves to the public. It is the right thing to do, look how well the economy is bouncing back inside the ERM...”. When the vote was put to the conference, it was passed by the narrowest of margins. As a result of this many Eurosceptic delegates and members walked out of the conference. All this drama and intrigue over Europe within the Conservative Party leads to the perception that they could never defeat Labour in the next election.

As the situation in Iraq continued to deteriorate throughout 2006, Gordon Brown distanced himself from the conflict. On a hot mic in October, Brown quipped, “Could you imagine where we would be if we were in the war?” to newly installed German Chancellor Angela Merkel. In the minor diplomatic crisis that followed Brown clarified his remarks, “We, as always, stand in the face of terror with our American friends”. In Britain, and the Labour Party especially, many praise Brown for continuing to keep the UK out of the war. In the United States, George Bush’s popularity plummets and the Democrats take control of both houses of Congress. In perhaps an ominous sign for the Global Economy, a housing bubble in the United States peaks at the end of 2006.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Surprise!

As 2007 opened Gordon Brown’s newly energized economy kept up its good pace. Unemployment continued slowly sliding to about 4.5% by Q4 2007. 2007 also saw continued growth with 0.5-1.5% for the first three quarters and slightly lower in Q4. In the same song and dance as in 2006, the decent economy boosted Labour’s poll numbers and Gordon Brown’s approval rating.

General Election Polls 1 February 2007:

Labour 44%
Conservative 33%
Liberal Democrat 16%

Gordon Brown Approval Rating

Approve 55%
Disapprove 36%



22 February 2006:

“I have just chaired a meeting with the cabinet and have met Her Majesty the Queen. I have decided to dissolve parliament and call for a general election on 5 April. “

Seeing these massive divisions in the Opposition over the Euro and good economic numbers, Gordon Brown finally decided to pull the trigger and call a snap election in early April. Hardly anyone in the Media was surprised by this as Labour had been gearing up for an election for several months and it was no secret around Westminster that Brown wanted a mandate for himself.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

2007 Election Part 1:

Hoping to recover from a shambolic Tory Party Conference in 2006, Ken Clarke laid out a number of campaign strategies and initiatives to his top advisors and party members. Clarke planned to attack Labour over their perceived waffling over Europe and contrast with the Conservatives endorsement of a Euro referendum, additionally Clarke would campaign hard for moderate voters in London and the South who backed John Smith in 2003 and 1999.

Ken Clarke also viciously attacked Labour over their perceived poor handling of the economy. At a rally in Harlow, Clarke said, “Gordon Brown and his stooge [Alistair Darling] have all but destroyed a golden economic legacy left by my party in 1999. Their recovery plans are hopelessly unsustainable and in the long term will lead to economic ruin. The Conservatives will stop this madness...”. Obviously, the Conservatives also attacked Labour over a whole host of other problems that popped up in their second term in Government: letting the relationship with US falter, a massive deficit, and the failure to adequately address the underlying problems that caused the 2004 riots.

But, unfortunately for the Tories, the polls had them 5-8% behind Labour. Gordon Brown ran a lowkey, relatively quiet campaign emphasizing Labour’s accomplishments in Government. Except for a widely panned campaign launch in which Gordon Brown mistakenly claimed that he was Prime Minister when the 2004 riots swept across the nation, and many, many awkward encounters with members of the public, the Labour campaign ran fairly smoothly over the course of most of the election.

March 15 General Election Polls:

Labour: 43% (355 Seats)
Conservative 35% (245 Seats)
Liberal Democrats 15% (20 Seats)