Skill and Chance
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Posts: 12,667
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« on: January 24, 2020, 04:50:53 PM » |
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Not in favor of realignment theory in general, but to the extent there are very lasting trends, I would focus more on who the parties appealed to vs. how well they did in a particular set of elections:
1896-1948: Industrial laborers overtake farmers, rise of organized labor/social class based politics, Dems begin building a new base, end of the Civil War era. At first it seems odd to group the 3 consecutive Republican landslides together with 4 consecutive Democratic landslides, but FDR was really just a supercharged version of the Bryan coalition.
1952-1988: The suburbs become politically significant for the first time, New Deal reforms firmly entrenched despite one-party Republican rule, the former laborer class feels economically secure for the 1st time.
1992-present: For the first time, the Democrats win by reaching out to suburban managerial voters. Republicans work to build a rural base surprisingly quickly.
IMO, it's hard to argue that we aren't still living in the post-1992 era.
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