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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Why did Bush do worse in Ohio in 04 compared to 00?
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Author Topic: Why did Bush do worse in Ohio in 04 compared to 00?  (Read 648 times)
Arbitrage1980
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« on: January 23, 2020, 05:36:09 pm »

His win margin went from 3.5% to 2%. Was it the economy? Or perhaps the anti gay-marriage ballot and the Iraq War turned off suburban voters in Franklin and Hamilton counties? In Franklin, Bush's loss margin went from -1% to -9.2%. In Hamilton, his win margin went from +11.7% to +5.4%.
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Hydera
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« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2020, 06:04:08 pm »

Before the 2008 recession people forget that the midwest has been in recession since the early 2000s due to outsourcing. Kerry campaigned on punishing outsourcing along with campaigning hard to win Ohio in 2004 when polls showed that Bush would win Florida but things were closer in Ohio.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2020, 07:24:19 pm »

Before the 2008 recession people forget that the midwest has been in recession since the early 2000s due to outsourcing. Kerry campaigned on punishing outsourcing along with campaigning hard to win Ohio in 2004 when polls showed that Bush would win Florida but things were closer in Ohio.

But Bush did better in Michigan in 04 than in 00. In 04 he won working class Macomb County while losing it in 00. He also did better in Missouri, Iowa, Indiana, Pennsylvania.
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Hydera
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« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2020, 07:48:50 pm »
« Edited: January 23, 2020, 07:53:54 pm by Hydera »

Before the 2008 recession people forget that the midwest has been in recession since the early 2000s due to outsourcing. Kerry campaigned on punishing outsourcing along with campaigning hard to win Ohio in 2004 when polls showed that Bush would win Florida but things were closer in Ohio.

But Bush did better in Michigan in 04 than in 00. In 04 he won working class Macomb County while losing it in 00. He also did better in Missouri, Iowa, Indiana, Pennsylvania.


You don't get it right? He campaigned heavily in Ohio but not as much compared to Ohio in Iowa and Pennsylvania, Michigan, and didnt campaign in trending heavily GOP states back then like Missouri and Indiana. Had he campaigned in Michigan, Iowa and Pennsylvania the way he did in Ohio by having so much rallies and spending money the margins there would had went up but his campaign was heavily dependent on flipping Ohio to win the election.

Had the economy not been sluggish in the midwest then states like Michigan would had been a toss-up instead of lean Kerry.
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Carapace Clavicle Moundshroud
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2020, 07:57:12 pm »

Jobs. Kerry actually had a decent plan to combat outsourcing. Unfortunately OH was triggered by the gays and stuck us with Bush for another four years.
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Hydera
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« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2020, 08:00:08 pm »

Jobs. Kerry actually had a decent plan to combat outsourcing. Unfortunately OH was triggered by the gays and stuck us with Bush for another four years.


Ofc i forgot about the Gay marriage ban referendums the GOP launched to get evangelicals to turn out in 2004.
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Georgia Swing
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« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2020, 12:55:45 pm »

In 2000, Gore gave up on Ohio several weeks before the election.  A 3.5% margin was surprising, suggesting that Gore could have made it very close in Ohio.  Another one of his campaign mistakes.

Kerry targeted Ohio heavily in 2004--has to be one of the few times when the Democratic statewide performance was better than the nationwide result.  Agree that the evangelical vote turnout with the gay marriage ban referendum made a significant impact.
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Smash255
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« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2020, 01:38:23 pm »



The trend with suburban educated voters was starting to take shape, the trend the other direction with WWC voters were not quite as strong in Ohio at that point as it was in other states

Kerry did a better job of campaigning in the state than Gore did

The economy was sluggish.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #8 on: January 29, 2020, 05:10:34 pm »

Job losses.
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Ridin' with Biden
Zyzz
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« Reply #9 on: January 29, 2020, 10:02:50 pm »

The DNC ran ads saying that Bush was the first president since Hoover to have lost jobs on his term in 2004.
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #10 on: January 29, 2020, 11:51:24 pm »

I feel the need to point out that Bush got a higher percentage of the total vote in 2004 than in 2000, in spite of the closer margin.

And, there was a huge jump in participation  -  from 4.7 million in 2000 to 5.6 million in 2004.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #11 on: February 02, 2020, 12:58:38 am »

Gephardt would of solidified the black vote and Union vote that went to Bush W, that Edward's could not get the other 50 K votes. Edward's didnt have enough foreign policy as the Bin Laden tape at the end sealed the deal for Bush W. As Cheney beat Edward's due to being a light weight on Iraq.

Samething with Lieberman,  Bob Graham would have solidified the foreign policy knowledge and beat Cheney in the Veep debate
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