International COVID-19 Megathread

[Tender Branson]

Situation here is now stabilizing slightly (on a high level).

The number of active cases has remained the same for about a week now.

Hospitalisations and ICU levels are stagnant, after rapid rises.

The number of new daily cases (6k), is down from the highs of 9.5k and daily recoveries are matching new cases.

But there were more than 100 deaths again yesterday.

[Tender Branson]

Austria plans to mass-test up to 7 million people (out of a 9 million population in total) between Dec. 5th and Christmas.

All teachers, kindergarten staff and police officers will be tested first (medical staff already have to test once a week now).

Participation in the mass tests is voluntary and not mandatory and the Army and Red Cross will be tasked with the logistics of it, meaning the mass tests will be performed in tents in every district.

https://orf.at/stories/3190634/

[Tender Branson]

In the first 9 months, deaths in Austria only increased by 0.5% vs. Jan.-Sept. 2019.

But since mid-October, there’s a significant excess mortality again. The weekly death statistics from Statistics Austria show that until Nov. 9th the mortality was ca. 25% higher than between 2016-19.

Usually, 1.600 deaths were recorded per Oct./Nov. week. Now up to 2.000 per week.

Source

[Mike88]

New cases in Portugal seem to have stabilize at around 6,000 per day, more or less.

President Marcelo did a speech yesterday night announcing the renewal of the State of Emergency and saying it will be renewed until everything is controlled. He also warned about a possible 3rd wave in January/February 2021 if in December the contamination rate isn't lowered and controlled.

New measures will be announced, again, by the government this afternoon.

[Mike88]

The new measures announced by PM Costa are not that very new, some adjustments actually:

- Mandatory masks for office workers;
- Creation of a 4 tier colour scheme for municipalities with highest and lowest rates of infection;
- Municipalities with 460 cases per inhabitants will continue with the current restrictions;
- The eves of the 1 and 8 December holidays will be also holidays with schools closing, public services closed and an advise for companies and offices to close on those 2 days.

[palandio]

[...]
However, vaccination will take a very long time, even in rich countries. I read that Germany could do roughly 60,000 people a day. That's not fast enough. They're currently planning on "vaccination centers" in stadiums etc.

I think that the number 60,000 is from some journalist that multiplied the number of 60 Impfzentren by "let's assume" 1,000 people per Impfzentrum.

As far a I understand the 60 Impfzentren are mostly for distribution and safe storage of the vaccine. (Biontech/Pfizer's vaccine seems to require storage at -80°C until a few days before vaccination.) Smaller Impfzentren will be set up in the single districts and mobile vaccination teams will go to nursing homes.

I was surprised by the number 60,000 because I think that the numbers for the flu vaccination that many people get every year are much higher. What is the limiting factor in the case of COVID-19 vaccines? Is it that the new RNA-based vaccines are more delicate than classical vaccines?

Small supplement:

The German state of Baden-Württemberg (11 million inhabitants) will set up eight central Impfzentren as hubs for logistics, storage and distribution until December 15. This aligns well with 60 hubs for Germany (83 million inhabitants) as a whole.

For every urban or rural district (Kreis) one or two Kreisimpfzentren will be set up until January 15 and at least 750 vaccinations per day will occur there 7 days per week from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. Since there are 7 urban and 35 rural districts the total number of Impfzentren will be at least 42, probably ca. 60. Hence at least 31k vaccinations per day in Baden-Württemberg, probably ca. 50k per day. On the national scale this would mean ca. 400k vaccinations a day in Germany from January 15 on.

Edit: I just read that the central hubs will be set up for up to 1.500 vaccinations a day as a first step which would mean up to 90k vaccinations per day in Germany from December 15 on (assuming that there are no other limiting factors like missing vaccines etc.) From January 15 on the number of daily vaccinations can then be increased (to ca. 500k/day?) due to the local vaccination centers being available.

[President Johnson]

Seems like the German "lockdown light" isn't as effective as it's supposed to be. We still have about 20,000 infections per day. The growth was halted, but numbers aren't going down either. It's very likely the lockdown will be extended into December.

That being said, I hope restaurants can reopen as soon as possible. We're ruining the whole industry here while most gastronomy had sufficient safety measures in place before the closings. Nightclubs must remain closed of course, but not restaurants.

Small supplement:

The German state of Baden-Württemberg (11 million inhabitants) will set up eight central Impfzentren as hubs for logistics, storage and distribution until December 15. This aligns well with 60 hubs for Germany (83 million inhabitants) as a whole.

For every urban or rural district (Kreis) one or two Kreisimpfzentren will be set up until January 15 and at least 750 vaccinations per day will occur there 7 days per week from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. Since there are 7 urban and 35 rural districts the total number of Impfzentren will be at least 42, probably ca. 60. Hence at least 31k vaccinations per day in Baden-Württemberg, probably ca. 50k per day. On the national scale this would mean ca. 400k vaccinations a day in Germany from January 15 on.

Edit: I just read that the central hubs will be set up for up to 1.500 vaccinations a day as a first step which would mean up to 90k vaccinations per day in Germany from December 15 on (assuming that there are no other limiting factors like missing vaccines etc.) From January 15 on the number of daily vaccinations can then be increased (to ca. 500k/day?) due to the local vaccination centers being available.

Yeah, it's great my state sets those Impfzentren up. I'd immediately take a vaccine, but likely won't be allowed to so as 29 year old without preexisting conditions (though my 64 year old aunt would give me her dose, if it was possible).

[Tender Branson]

The "soft lockdown" from Nov. 3 onwards is now showing effects.

Daily new cases down to 3.000 today vs. 9.500 at the height.

This will probably result in an even better reduction of cases and hospital capacity after the "hard lockdown" ends in 2 weeks.

[CumbrianLefty]

Another working vaccine announced this morning, how many is that now?

[Silent Hunter]

Four if you believe Sputnik V's data.

[palandio]

What I find discomforting is that the curve of new deaths in Germany is still rising.

During the last days of October the quotient obtained by dividing the number of new cases by the number of cases from one week ago fell from ca. 1.8 to ca. 1.3.

The quotient obtained by dividing the number of new deaths by the number of deaths from one week ago followed the same curve, but about ten days later.

The quotient of cases continued to drop to ca. 1.0 where it has remained stable since November 9. The quotient of deaths on the other hand has remained stable at ca. 1.3.

This could point towards the virus increasingly infecting the most vulnerable people. Better protection for nursing homes should be a priority now. And when (if?) there is a vaccine, the plan to give priority to the most vulnerable groups and to healthcare workers seems absolutely justified.

[FrancoAgo]

South Tyrol did a campaign for testing all the population
http://www.provincia.bz.it/sicurezza-protezione-civile/protezione-civile/coronavirus-test-alto-adige.asp
at today the tested 349,655 people and found 3,321 positives

the campaign will end Wednesday

[Silent Hunter]

What I find discomforting is that the curve of new deaths in Germany is still rising.

Deaths are always the last to fall - it can take a month or more for someone to die from Covid-19, with just as long to be notified to the authorities.

[Mike88]

According to this site, Covid-19 Portugal, the NHS only has 8 beds left in ICUs for Covid patients.

[Tender Branson]

The number of active cases has gone down a lot here, as has the number of new daily cases.

But after some stagnation, the number of hospitalisations and ICU has reached a new high today.

Also, deaths remain sky-high. New record yesterday with 118.

[Tender Branson]

South Tyrol did a campaign for testing all the population
http://www.provincia.bz.it/sicurezza-protezione-civile/protezione-civile/coronavirus-test-alto-adige.asp
at today the tested 349,655 people and found 3,321 positives

the campaign will end Wednesday

That's a positivity rate of less than 1%.

In Austria (and Northern Tyrol), we have a positivity rate of 15-20% each day - similar to what Italy had in the spring.

Yesterday, 28.070 tests were performed - of which 4.377 were positive (15.6%)

[FrancoAgo]

South Tyrol did a campaign for testing all the population
http://www.provincia.bz.it/sicurezza-protezione-civile/protezione-civile/coronavirus-test-alto-adige.asp
at today the tested 349,655 people and found 3,321 positives

the campaign will end Wednesday

That's a positivity rate of less than 1%.

In Austria (and Northern Tyrol), we have a positivity rate of 15-20% each day - similar to what Italy had in the spring.

Yesterday, 28.070 tests were performed - of which 4.377 were positive (15.6%)

also in Italy the positive rate is around 15%, but the South Tyrol is a different thing, they testing all the people not only they need for symptoms or because relate to a positive

[Mike88]

According to this site, Covid-19 Portugal, the NHS only has 8 beds left in ICUs for Covid patients.

As of now, the NHS seems to have reached full capacity in ICUs for Covid patients. In the 2021 budget discussions, a proposal for the creation of 400 new ICUs beds until the end of the 1st trimester of 2021 was passed with the votes of all parties except the PS. Lisbon health authorities are also opening more beds during this weekend as the pressure is overwhelming. So far, 506 Covid patients are in ICUs, with 3,275 hospitalized. The number of death also increased to 85, the 2nd highest number till date. On the positive side, new infections today dropped to 3,919 with new recoveries soaring to 7,406.

[Tender Branson]

South Tyrol did a campaign for testing all the population
http://www.provincia.bz.it/sicurezza-protezione-civile/protezione-civile/coronavirus-test-alto-adige.asp
at today the tested 349,655 people and found 3,321 positives

the campaign will end Wednesday

That's a positivity rate of less than 1%.

In Austria (and Northern Tyrol), we have a positivity rate of 15-20% each day - similar to what Italy had in the spring.

Yesterday, 28.070 tests were performed - of which 4.377 were positive (15.6%)

also in Italy the positive rate is around 15%, but the South Tyrol is a different thing, they testing all the people not only they need for symptoms or because relate to a positive

So it would be similar to the number of active cases, which is ca. 1% here as well.

Factoring in the shadow numbers, I guess 1-3% of our population would be found positive if our mass testing starts ahead of Christmas.

[palandio]

What I find discomforting is that the curve of new deaths in Germany is still rising.

Deaths are always the last to fall - it can take a month or more for someone to die from Covid-19, with just as long to be notified to the authorities.

That is certainly a factor but I think that it's not the whole story.

Today the RKI's (Robert Koch Institute) new daily report on COVID-19 came out and as always on a Tuesday, it contains 7-day case quotas by age groups.

The number of new reported cases per 100k inhabitants in calendar weeks 40-47 is:
19 -- 31 -- 51 -- 90 -- 134 -- 151 -- 153 -- 150

Age group 80-89:
10 -- 16 -- 29 -- 61 -- 95 -- 117 -- 135 -- 153
Age group 90-99:
14 -- 23 -- 53 -- 107 -- 177 -- 206 -- 278 -- 358
Age group 100+:
16 -- 21 -- 49 -- 107 -- 189 -- 234 -- 288 -- 502

So while overall cases are not growing anymore, cases are exploding in the oldest age groups. A similar pattern occurred in spring. Then the curve in the oldest age groups was following the shape of the general curve with a lag of ca. ten days. Maybe it will be similar now.

[DabbingSanta]

Hey guys, lots of great information on here.  We really need an "opinions/discussion from unqualified people" thread for people like me so I don't derail anything productive.  Canada saw a record 7,000 cases yesterday, so we're at about the same level of infection the U.S. was during the summer.  Things are not going so well here despite all the lockdowns and mandates.  One big difference is that a lot of schools are still open, and I've noticed the last couple months that people are not taking the distancing thing so seriously.  I am of the opinion that distancing is probably more effective than mask wearing.  I can't imagine the negative impact all the Black Friday/Christmas shopping will do in places that are still open this week.  S*** is about to hit the fan.

[Tender Branson]

More about Austria's planned mass population tests on the weekends before Christmas:

* Ca. 7 million tests have been purchased to test up to 7 million people between ages 10-70.

* The tests are in 2 stages: first the teachers and police officers on the Dec. 5-6 weekend, then ca. 3-5 million people on the Dec. 12-13 and/or Dec. 19-20 weekends.

* Because the mass test is voluntary and polls say that ca. 70% will take part, we can assume some 4-5 million people taking part on the weekend(s) before Christmas.

* The Army/Red Cross will set up test centers in every city and it will be similar to election day voting in precincts.

* You sign up, leave your personal (address) data, a phone number and e-mail address and you'll get your test result by text message, email or post. If you are found positive, you'll get a mandatory quarantine order.

* According to the Dept. of Defense, they are also working to create an online pre-registration method where you can sign up for a specific appointment, to avoid long lines like in Slovakia, where people had to wait at the test centers to get their result.

https://orf.at/stories/3191092

[Tender Branson]

More about Austria's planned mass population tests on the weekends before Christmas:

Google-translated:

Army wants to avoid queues

The planning for the pre-Christmas CoV mass tests has started in full. The armed forces will play a central role here: They want to avoid long queues like in Slovakia and are fully committed to digitization. What is already clear: there will be no full army mobilization to have more staff available.

Based on the experience in Slovakia and South Tyrol, Austria is relying fully on digital processing for the upcoming mass tests. From the registration to the appointment booking to the result, everything should run through a single program, said Defense Minister Claudia Tanner's (ÖVP) chief of staff, Major General Rudolf Striedinger, at a press conference on Tuesday. This is to avoid crowds in the course of the tests.

Striedinger said that the tests for teachers, kindergarten teachers and the police, planned for the beginning of December, would not be a logistical problem for the armed forces.

The broad population testing, however, is not feasible by the army alone, because "a full mobilization of the federal army is not planned".

The figures from Slovakia show how time-consuming and labor-intensive the mass tests are. There, more than 3.6 million people were tested in the first round. The country has 5.5 million inhabitants, all ten to 65-year-olds were called to test. 40,000 people were deployed to process it, including 10,000 soldiers and 10,000 police officers, according to Striedinger.

In Slovakia there was no electronic pre-registration, the people waited on the spot for their results, which resulted in long queues, said Striedinger. People in Austria want to avoid such accumulations - all the more since the weather is likely to be much more unfriendly - and therefore relies heavily on digitization. An external company will develop its own program that will handle everything from registration to booking an appointment to the result.

For the mass tests of the entire population, which are to take place before Christmas, things look different. An implementation like the one planned for the teachers will "not work that way" for the masses. These tests would therefore take place much more at community and city level, according to Striediger. One possibility is to lean on electoral precincts, as in Slovakia.

[Tender Branson]

I'm a bit sceptical how all of this can be set up in just a few weeks, but maybe it's working out somehow.

Or it will be a major flop.

We'll see. Probably it's better than nothing.

[Tender Branson]

My state, Salzburg, today clarified plans for the mass testing of the population:

It will be held statewide on the weekend of December 12-13.

1 town (Annaberg) will already test on December 1-2 and serve as a test-run for the state.

In general, all 570.000 people in the state are allowed to be tested incl. children if their parents want to do so.

The mass tests will be performed at the 534 voting precincts used for elections.

https://service.salzburg.gv.at/lkorrj/detail?nachrid=64242

The governor expects a "turnout" of 60%, but if the mass test in South Tyrol is an indicator, it will be much higher.

The tests will be performed from 8am-7pm Saturday+Sunday.