International COVID-19 Megathread

[kaoras]

1427 new cases in Chile, almost triple that the rate of just 3 days ago. 80% of new cases are in the capital Santiago, and the government allowed over 40 thousand vehicles to leave the capital for the long weekend, and Piñera continues to call for a return to work.

[President Johnson]

Germany has just 945 new cases since yesterday. Significant drop.

[Middle-aged Europe]

As the Berlin Police reports, there has been a sharp increase in illegal street races since the shutdown began. Last year, there had been 400 such prosecutions. Last month, there have been 100. Which probably can attributed to a) the streets being a whole lot emptier and b) bars, clubs, gyms and other venues street racers may otherwise have been frequented being closed (as are professional soccer games). Who knew that a pandemic would turn the city into a cross between The Fast and the Furious and Mad Max :
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/corona-raser-nutzen-leere-strassen-zahl-der-illegalen-autorennen-in-berlin-nimmt-drastisch-zu/25794944.html

Meanwhile, anti-lockdown protests have taken place today in the city of Stuttgart with up to 5,000 people attending. For some reason, Stuttgart has become the center of the German anti-lockdown movement alongside Berlin. Well, at least they're not carrying assault rifles...

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

UK



UK 30 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 84,614 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 90,000

UK still coming down with the recoveries added less than those actually predicted by about 6,000.


France



France 1 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 74,500

France well and truly over the main event.


Germany



Germany 1 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 12,900

Germany looking good. Reporting time-accurate recoveries.


Spain



Spain 1 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 36,500

Spain may have another slight peak developing depending on what happens over the next week.


Italy



Italy 1 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 90,000

Italy has continued to decline at a slower rate.


USA



USA 1 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 494,087 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 462,000

USA on it's way down or on it's way back up thanks to increased testing? We will find out over the next week. I may have to broaden the predicted slope somewhat as this downward path continues slower than expected. This will push out the recovery time of the US for removing lockdowns.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



All growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[Tender Branson]

Things are definitely slowing down ...

Only 20-40 more cases on a daily basis and just 2 deaths yesterday.

Deaths once were in the 15-30 range per day.

[President Johnson]

Things are definitely slowing down ...

Only 20-40 more cases on a daily basis and just 2 deaths yesterday.

Deaths once were in the 15-30 range per day.

Same here. 793 new cases reported from yesterday. Another drop of over 100. Last week, we had mostly over 2,000 additional cases a day. The number of active cases has dropped more than half within two weeks (from 70,000+ to below 30,000).

[Tender Branson]

Things are definitely slowing down ...

Only 20-40 more cases on a daily basis and just 2 deaths yesterday.

Deaths once were in the 15-30 range per day.

Same here. 793 new cases reported from yesterday. Another drop of over 100. Last week, we had mostly over 2,000 additional cases a day. The number of active cases has dropped more than half within two weeks (from 70,000+ to below 30,000).

True, but Germany could have prevented maybe a thousand or so deaths if it acted quicker and more consequently like Austria.

We need to give some credit to Kurz and the Greens on this.

[CumbrianLefty]

As the Berlin Police reports, there has been a sharp increase in illegal street races since the shutdown began. Last year, there had been 400 such prosecutions. Last month, there have been 100. Which probably can attributed to a) the streets being a whole lot emptier and b) bars, clubs, gyms and other venues street racers may otherwise have been frequented being closed (as are professional soccer games). Who knew that a pandemic would turn the city into a cross between The Fast and the Furious and Mad Max :
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/corona-raser-nutzen-leere-strassen-zahl-der-illegalen-autorennen-in-berlin-nimmt-drastisch-zu/25794944.html

Meanwhile, anti-lockdown protests have taken place today in the city of Stuttgart with up to 5,000 people attending. For some reason, Stuttgart has become the center of the German anti-lockdown movement alongside Berlin. Well, at least they're not carrying assault rifles...

Interesting how the protests have taken off, at least relatively speaking, in some countries.

In the supposedly "liberty loving" UK the few such events have had derisory attendances thus far.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Things are definitely slowing down ...

Only 20-40 more cases on a daily basis and just 2 deaths yesterday.

Deaths once were in the 15-30 range per day.

Same here. 793 new cases reported from yesterday. Another drop of over 100. Last week, we had mostly over 2,000 additional cases a day. The number of active cases has dropped more than half within two weeks (from 70,000+ to below 30,000).

True, but Germany could have prevented maybe a thousand or so deaths if it acted quicker and more consequently like Austria.

We need to give some credit to Kurz and the Greens on this.

No one says that we saved lives by acting appropriately and in a timely manner.

The US, Italy, UK, France or Germany all get basted.

This was overall a phenomenal response from the Germans looking at their low infection and death rates.

You have to admire the positives and not dwell on the negatives.

It's in your head, you just dont see it.

[Tender Branson]

Only 19 new cases here today until 3pm.

The virus seems to be almost eradicated.

The question is for how long ...

[urutzizu]

"With the US, Germany & EU should pursue forceful decoupling from China. It would be expensive but not as expensive as the alternative. Corona recession presents a unique opportunity to correct the wrong path".

Mathias Döpfner, CEO of Axelspringer (largest Media Conglomerate in Europe) with the most radical statement so far within mainstream German centre-right circles.


Source: Welt am Sonntag + Abaca

[Tender Branson]

Did anyone notice that the Wuhan Lab looks like a huge laser printer ?

[Rover]

Dr Yves Cohen says his hospital re-tested the blood of patients treated in December for pneumonia. Found a man whose blood tested positive for coronavirus This was 27 Dec. Before COVIDー19 was thought to have arrived in France.

bfmtv.com/sante/coronavirus-le-professeur-cohen-affirme-qu-il-y-avait-un-cas-de-covid-19-en-france-des-le-27-decembre-1906757.html

Excuse my poor french but does anyone have further insight into this story?

[PSOL]

states trying to steal coronavirus research, says UK agency

...

The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) said the proportion of such targeted cyber-attacks had increased, branding the criminal activity “reprehensible”.

It is understood that nations including Iran and Russia are behind the hacking attempts, while experts have said China is also a likely perpetrator.

A shame that nations aren’t working together during this crisis for their people, us. Instead, we’re all facing the brunt of this virus in a medical research scene divided by geopolitical squabbles.

[Omega21]

"With the US, Germany & EU should pursue forceful decoupling from China. It would be expensive but not as expensive as the alternative. Corona recession presents a unique opportunity to correct the wrong path".

Mathias Döpfner, CEO of Axelspringer (largest Media Conglomerate in Europe) with the most radical statement so far within mainstream German centre-right circles.


Source: Welt am Sonntag + Abaca

Europe should remain neutral.

Swiss-style foreign policy for the EU, NOW.

[jaymichaud]

Did anyone notice that the Wuhan Lab looks like a huge laser printer ?

LMAO

[Tender Branson]

Only 24 new cases until 3pm today.

And the 2nd day in a row with only 2 deaths.

[President Johnson]

Today an interesting study from Germany was published: The county of Heinsberg, at the border to the Netherlands, was the first major hotspot in February after an infected couple visited a carneval party. Researchers from Bonn tested almost 1,000 people from one town with and without symptoms and found that 15% had antibodies or are still infected. The death rate was 0.37%. If this were the actual death rate in Germany, the actual number of infections must be at 1.8 million, about ten times higher than reported.

Other experts think 1.8 million is way too high and emphasize the situation in this respective county was not representative for the whole country.

NY Post is yet the only source I could find in English: https://nypost.com/2020/05/04/german-coronavirus-cases-may-be-10-times-higher-than-official-figures/

[CumbrianLefty]

Only 24 new cases until 3pm today.

And the 2nd day in a row with only 2 deaths.

Austria has been one of the more successful countries in combating this on any measure.

[Tender Branson]

STATISTICS Austria has recently conducted a big test study, using PCR samples and for an additional study antibody testing in high-risk areas.

Summary:

The COVID-19 prevalence study tested 1 432 persons aged 16 and over living in private households. The results are subject to a 95% confidence interval, i.e. with a probability of 95%, those infected with SARS-CoV-2 are at most 10 823 persons or 0.15% of the total population aged 16 and over living in private households.

In the experimental study on SARS-CoV-2 antibody tests, 269 persons aged 16 and over were tested in 27 risk communities in private households. The results are also subject to a 95% confidence interval, i.e. with a probability of 95%, the number of persons with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies amounts between a minimum value of 543 persons or 1.36% and a maximum value of 3 189 persons or 7.97% of the total population aged 16 and over in private households.

Here are the full results:

COVID-19 prevalence study: maximum 0.15% of Austrian population infected with SARS-CoV-2

Vienna, 2020-05-04 – In the period from 21 to 24 April 2020, a maximum of 0.15% or up to 10 823 persons in Austrian private households were infected with the coronavirus. This is the result of the nationwide COVID-19 prevalence study conducted by Statistics Austria on behalf of the Ministry of Science (BMBWF) and in cooperation with the Austrian Red Cross (ÖRK) and the Medical University of Vienna.

Up to 10 823 people infected with SARS-CoV-2

With a sample size of 2 800 persons aged 16 years and over living in private households, usable PCR samples were taken from 1 432 persons by means of mouth-nose-throat swabs. One of them tested positive for the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. Although this result leads to a wide range of variation in the extrapolation, it allows conclusions to be drawn about an upper limit of SARS-CoV-2 infected persons: In the period from 21 to 24 April 2020, a maximum of 0.15% of the persons living in Austria were infected with SARS-CoV-2, which corresponds to 10 823 persons.

Higher prevalence of 0.75% in risk areas

In communities with a relatively large number of known coronavirus infected persons, the prevalence of 0.75% is significantly higher than average, but still low in absolute numbers. This was the result of an experimental study on SARS-CoV-2 antibody tests, which was carried out with a sample size of 540 persons aged 16 and over living in private households. A total of 269 persons in six federal states and nine districts underwent a multipart SARS-CoV-2 test on 25 April 2020. This consisted of a swab of the respiratory tract to check whether a current infection existed by means of PCR analysis, a rapid antibody test and a blood sample for antibody testing in the laboratory.

According to experimental study, 4.71% of people in risk communities have SARS-CoV-2 antibodies

According to extrapolation, 4.71% of the persons in the 27 communities with a relatively high number of known coronavirus infections had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (mean value of the 95% confidence interval; see methodological information) on the cut-off date of the study on 25 April 2020. This means that an average of 1 884 persons in these communities had a past infection. Whether this leads to sustained immunity to the coronavirus cannot be answered with certainty at the current state of knowledge.

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/123052.html

[Tender Branson]

With new daily cases down to ~20 per day, the focus is now shifting more and more to Vienna, which used to have below-average infection rates.

While the "ground zero" state Tyrol has largely weeded out the virus by now, Vienna is now the region with the most infections (all relative of course).

During the weekend, 26 people in an asylum facility tested positive.

The facility was evacuated, cleansed and the refugees put under quarantine elsewhere.

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3047028

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/chronik/wien/Masseninfektion-in-Wiener-Asylheim-Insgesamt-26-Faelle/428737016

[Tender Branson]

A new study from ISTAT, the Italian Statistics Agency, shows that mortality numbers varied a lot depending on region/province in mid-February/March this year vs. the same periods in 2015-19:

https://www.istat.it/it/files//2020/05/Rapporto_Istat_ISS.pdf

Whereas there were provinces like Bergamo, where deaths in those 40 days went up by 600% from around a usual 1.000 to 6.000 (!), there were provinces like that of the capital Roma where deaths dropped by 9% compared with earlier years ...

[President Johnson]

"With the US, Germany & EU should pursue forceful decoupling from China. It would be expensive but not as expensive as the alternative. Corona recession presents a unique opportunity to correct the wrong path".

Mathias Döpfner, CEO of Axelspringer (largest Media Conglomerate in Europe) with the most radical statement so far within mainstream German centre-right circles.


Source: Welt am Sonntag + Abaca

The EU should expand relationship with the US once Trump is gone. President Biden will restore transatlantic relations and other Western countries. China with its totalitarian system and oppression is hardly an ally. That doesn't mean partnership is not possible, but the Europe, the US, Canada and Japan have much more to gain by standing together as one block against China's expansion.

If the West acts in concert, we have much greater power to pressure Beijing and hold them accountable. This is absolutely necessary, especially now that they have covered this pandemic up for all too long.

[parochial boy]

The US is going to be too unreliable for the forseeable future. It is a barely functioning democracy with a collapsing society and a psychotic economic system. Europe should be looking to develop it's own ability to function as an independent economic and geopolitical force, and develop a viable economic alternative to American ultraliberalism.

Can always dream, huh?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Attila Hildmann, successful author of vegan cookbooks and former participant in various German reality TV shows, has announced on Facebook that he will arm himself and go into the underground, citing the Robert Koch Institute President's supposed affiliation with the freemasons and Bill Gates' secret plan to erect a global forced vaccination regime as some of his main reasons. Hildmann is assumed to be the latest case in a string of German celebrities who have gone insane over the coronavirus lockdown.