International COVID-19 Megathread

[Tender Branson]

295 dead as of today (+22 since yesterday).

The number hospitalized and in ICUs has fallen slightly.

The number of official recoveries will soon surpass the number of registered active cases ...

Both around 7000 by the weekend.

[FrancoAgo]

 A mortality rate based on a 7 day lag produces ...
Given that the actual final mortality rate appears closer to 0.8% worldwide

ever from worldometers
worldwide deaths the 8th April 88,457
worldwide cases the 1st April 936,637
supposed fatality rate 9.4%

i add, afaik 7 days lag it's too few
with a 2 weeks delay
worldwide cases the 25th March 471,471
supposed fatality rate 18.8%

italian studies report 9 days median from the symptoms to deaths
worldwide cases the 30th March 785,828
supposed fatality rate 11.3%

[Tirnam]

In France for the first time the number of people in intensive care is dropping.

[President Johnson]

Appears that the number of infected people in Germany declines. Some days ago it stood at 69,000, now it's at 65,000. Over 46,000 have recovered (2,349 deaths).

[Middle-aged Europe]

As a result of the coronavirus pandemic, the Chinese agriculture ministry plans to ban the eating of dogs.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/09/china-signals-end-to-dog-meat-consumption-by-humans

[Lechasseur]

Boris Johnson is out of intensive care and has been transferred to a different service within the hospital for monitoring

[Middle-aged Europe]

Appears that the number of infected people in Germany declines. Some days ago it stood at 69,000, now it's at 65,000. Over 46,000 have recovered (2,349 deaths).

As Merkel said today in her press conference, further restrictions don't seem to be necessary. And as health minister Spahn said today, an easing of the restrictions could soon be possible provided that they're continued to be complied with over the Easter holidays.

However, Merkel also implied that different German states could ease restrictions at very different speeds and in very different manners. This is probably in reference to Armin Laschet of North Rhine-Westphalia for whom not a day goes by where he doesn't talk about his impatience regarding the ending of restrictions, while hardline virus fighter Markus Söder of Bavaria is lingering at the opposite side of the spectrum.

Early next week, the Leopoldina - the German national academy of science - is expected to make their recommendations with regards to a gradual exit from the restrictions. On Wednesday next week there will be another federal-state governments video conference to discuss the current state of epidemic and the Leopoldina recommendations. But as indicated above it may be actually result in a "we agree to disagree" this time around.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.ft.com/content/b984101a-42b8-40db-9a92-6786aec2ba5c
Eurozone countries strike deal on coronavirus rescue
Accord reached among euro area ministers after Dutch concede on bailout fund conditions 

Eurogroup finance ministers have reached an agreement on an emergency rescue package aimed at responding to the economic pain triggered by the coronavirus crisis.

Officials said that talks among players including the Netherlands, Italy, Germany and France on Thursday evening yielded a compromise position that can now be put forward for consideration by EU leaders 

Finance ministers clapped over their teleconference at the final accord. “We acted decisively for our citizens in less than a month,” Mário Ceteno, the eurogroup president, told ministers in the room 

Crucially, the text to be presented to EU leaders will not insist on placing macroeconomic conditions on credit lines from the bloc’s bailout funds. That had been a key demand of the Dutch government and was resisted by Rome. “The Dutch have compromised,” said a senior official in the talks.

[brucejoel99]

As a result of the coronavirus pandemic, the Chinese agriculture ministry plans to ban the eating of dogs.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/09/china-signals-end-to-dog-meat-consumption-by-humans

How about pangolins?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Boris Johnson is out of intensive care and has been transferred to a different service within the hospital for monitoring

Good news,

Some latest plots from the UK and France which I have upgraded to include predicted growth.

The model is based on amplitude of the initial responses from data from China, South Korea, Australia, Italy and Spain and the time periods between maximum growth and maximum Active cases.

This allows a positively skewed bell curve to be calculated for other countries based on best fit.

The results are:

UK



Peak Active Cases and the associated date will change slightly when new data comes in, but the model updates itself daily. UK has the least predictable situation as it has yet to slow down. Germany, Italy and Spain should show a clearer picture.


France



France has a higher predicted peak in Active Cases but should be out of the woods earlier.

These models can change, and obviously will change as new data comes in. For example, the USA has a highly accelerated growth curve, so those cases will resolve to an outcome just as fast. Hence a steeper recovery is predicted.

In terms of growth alone, this is something that is starting to really take shape:



These growth curves are real key to understanding how this virus will play out over time.

Will make some Germany, Spain and USA predictive plots tomorrow (and Australian).

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian Red Cross/SORA institute has conducted a survey among 1.500 Austrians to detect the real number of infected and to pin down the suspected "dark number" cases:

In Austria at the beginning of April there were between 10,200 and 67,400 people infected with the SARS-Cov-2 coroan virus in addition to the sick in hospitals, the most likely value being 28,500 infected. This is the result of a representative sample survey of 1,544 Austrians, as ÖVP Education Minister Heinz Faßmann announced today.

The aim of the tests was to check the number of unreported cases of coronavirus infections. The study makes it possible to estimate the prevalence of acute coronavirus infections among people living in Austria who are not in hospitals for the period beginning of April 2020, said the two managing directors of the social research institute SORA, Günther Ogris and Christoph Hofinger at a press conference.

Of the 1,544 people tested for the sample, 0.32 percent were positive. Around 28,500 people are allocated to the population. Taking into account the fluctuation range, there was a 95 percent probability that between 0.12 and 0.76 of Austrians were infected with SARS-Cov-2 in the period April 1 to 6, or between 10,200 and 67,400 in absolute numbers.

Random selection of participants

The upper range of the interval is therefore significantly higher than the previously known number of infected people, which were largely determined by testing suspected cases. According to official figures, there were between 10,500 and 12,200 infected between April 1 and 6.

The study was carried out on behalf of the Ministry of Science by the social research institute SORA, which carries out the selection of the sample and the evaluation, in cooperation with the Red Cross, the Medical University of Vienna and other institutions.

The selection of the participants for the sample examination was made purely by chance from public telephone directories. In addition, randomly generated numbers were called by the computer and included in the sample. The only requirement was that the number of study participants per federal state exactly corresponds to the ratio of the respective national population to the total population.

https://orf.at/#/stories/3161377

Good to know. Seems the shadow number of infected is not all too big.

[Tender Branson]

24 more deaths yesterday, but the number of hospitalized persons and in ICU has dropped a lot yesterday.

The number of new cases rose by less than 300 (+2%), but tested recoveries ballooned by 800.

Active cases dropped by 500 yesterday !

Still, masks will be made mandatory next Tuesday for public transportation as well and first shops will open again (also with masked shopping only).

[Tender Branson]

A study in the „Kurier“ newspaper shows that of Austria’s 300+ deaths - all but one person - was over the age of 50.

The single person under the age of 50 was a 20-something woman with significant health and immune system problems for years.

Almost all deaths are in the 65-90 age groups.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I suspect we'll pay a price for relaxing certain restrictions during the Easter.

[Mike88]

Portugal update:

Worst day for new cases so far, 1,516 new cases, putting the total on 15,472 cases. However, the number of deaths had a lower increase than yesterday, and the recovered increased to 233. The number of patients on ICU also drooped again, while the number of hospitalized maintained steady.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ugh...

French police turn back private jet of holidaymakers from UK

Party of 10 flew into Marseille-Provence airport to be taken by helicopter to luxury Cannes villa


A group of would-be holidaymakers who flew in a private jet from London to the Côte d’Azur in France have been turned back by police.

Seven men and three women arrived on the chartered aircraft to Marseille-Provence airport, where helicopters were waiting to fly them on to Cannes, where they had rented a luxury villa.

The men, aged 40-50, and women, aged 23-25, were refused permission to enter France and ordered by police to fly back to the UK.

“They were coming for a holiday in Cannes and three helicopters were waiting on the tarmac,” a border police spokesperson told Agence France-Presse. “We notified them they were not allowed to enter the national territory and they left four hours later.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/french-police-turn-back-private-jet-of-holidaymakers-from-uk

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Well, we're reached an idiotic situation when the police is overzealously fining people for having a walk in the woods, but when a plane with aid arrived at the Warsaw International Airport, the law enforcement had no problems with a crowd of onlookers gathering for the occasion.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Belgium is being hit badly. Look at deaths / 1 million inhabitants

[Tender Branson]

Well, we're reached an idiotic situation when the police is overzealously fining people for having a walk in the woods, but when a plane with aid arrived at the Warsaw International Airport, the law enforcement had no problems with a crowd of onlookers gathering for the occasion.

Yeah, absurd.

Most people here are fined in the crowded big cities: people are out in the sunny weather and do not keep the 2m distance from each other.

On the other hand, you can do what you want here in the rural areas (there’s no police around anyway).

You are advised not to go paragliding (like a young dude did yesterday) and crashed with his paraglider into a tree, prompting a big masked rescue effort with more than 10 mountain rescuers + helicopter involved.

Because it strains emergency services.

https://www.heute.at/s/corona-paragleiter-muss-von-heli-geborgen-werden-59570642

On the other hand, the roof is falling on a lot of people’s heads at home right now ...

[LAKISYLVANIA]

A study in the „Kurier“ newspaper shows that of Austria’s 300+ deaths - all but one person - was over the age of 50.

The single person under the age of 50 was a 20-something woman with significant health and immune system problems for years.

Almost all deaths are in the 65-90 age groups.

In Belgium a young girl of 14 died.

[Tender Branson]

Sweden:

https://twitter.com/baekdal/status/1248276592830414848

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Well, we're reached an idiotic situation when the police is overzealously fining people for having a walk in the woods, but when a plane with aid arrived at the Warsaw International Airport, the law enforcement had no problems with a crowd of onlookers gathering for the occasion.

Yeah, absurd.

Most people here are fined in the crowded big cities: people are out in the sunny weather and do not keep the 2m distance from each other.

On the other hand, you can do what you want here in the rural areas (there’s no police around anyway).

You are advised not to go paragliding (like a young dude did yesterday) and crashed with his paraglider into a tree, prompting a big masked rescue effort with more than 10 mountain rescuers + helicopter involved.

Because it strains emergency services.

https://www.heute.at/s/corona-paragleiter-muss-von-heli-geborgen-werden-59570642

On the other hand, the roof is falling on a lot of people’s heads at home right now ...

It really should be recommended that the people get as much fresh air as possible, provided they can do it safely. Having to stay at home 24/7 can take quite a tool. What's the harm if I decide to take a walk in the woods? What danger do I pose?

Haven't been fined, btw, but you hear a lot of stories. You can always refuse to accept the ticket and go to court, which gives you good chances at dismissal. If ever stopped, I'll do just that.

[Tender Branson]

Well, we're reached an idiotic situation when the police is overzealously fining people for having a walk in the woods, but when a plane with aid arrived at the Warsaw International Airport, the law enforcement had no problems with a crowd of onlookers gathering for the occasion.

Yeah, absurd.

Most people here are fined in the crowded big cities: people are out in the sunny weather and do not keep the 2m distance from each other.

On the other hand, you can do what you want here in the rural areas (there’s no police around anyway).

You are advised not to go paragliding (like a young dude did yesterday) and crashed with his paraglider into a tree, prompting a big masked rescue effort with more than 10 mountain rescuers + helicopter involved.

Because it strains emergency services.

https://www.heute.at/s/corona-paragleiter-muss-von-heli-geborgen-werden-59570642

On the other hand, the roof is falling on a lot of people’s heads at home right now ...

It really should be recommended that the people get as much fresh air as possible, provided they can do it safely. Having to stay at home 24/7 can take quite a tool. What's the harm if I decide to take a walk in the woods? What danger do I pose?

Haven't been fined, btw, but you hear a lot of stories. You can always refuse to accept the ticket and go to court, which gives you good chances at dismissal. If ever stopped, I'll do just that.

If you go into the woods alone and nobody else makes a sound, are you getting noticed ?

Yes, by the 👮‍♀️ Police 🚔. Because they have drones to find you and fine you.



I would also challenge such a fine in court. But I guess nobody gets fined anyway, unless you are encountered in a group of people.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Kaczyński doesn't have to observe stupid restrictions.

Image link

[brucejoel99]

Ugh...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/french-police-turn-back-private-jet-of-holidaymakers-from-uk

Obviously, the French border police didn't realize that the rules are only for the poor & not the rich.