International COVID-19 Megathread

[urutzizu]

Through direct negotiations with Xi, Merkel has secured access to large amounts of Medical equipment from China (which controls 80% of the global supply). A couple of days ago, there were reports that China was conditioning Medical Supplies to France on the Installation of Huawei in the 5G network (for the record, China denies this). Is it likely that China demanded the same here? Well, we don't know that, but considering their modus operandi, it does seem unlikely that they would not have demanded at least *something* in return. And Germany has still not taken a decision on Huawei.

There was a pretty interesting piece in the Atlantic about this, but basically while Trumps response to the Virus itself has been terrible, his foreign policy for the last 3 Years - trying to decouple from China - has to an extent been vindicated.

[SunSt0rm]

https://www.ad.nl/politiek/kamer-steunt-hoekstra-in-verzet-tegen-eurobonds~a622e58d/
Netherlands parliament rejects Eurobonds

Not suprising as eurobonds or any form of debt mutualization is rejected in the government agreement signed by VVD, CDA, D66 and CU in 2017. And all parties, even the most pro-eu parties don't think Eurobonds are the answer to this crisis

[Meclazine for Israel]

Just for get your attention, today i see with more attention the data from Lombardy and that from the National, so the "recovered" number w/o hospitalization of Lombardy is propaganda, they call so that positive in home isolation  

I noticed you don't see this

Data is missing from Italy regardless of the reports. Look at the New Cases vs New Recoveries:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Now look at New Cases vs New Recovies in China:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

The area under the curve should be essentially the same minus mortality.

Missing around 55,000-65,000 recoveries in Italy which should have had an outcome by now.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest growth numbers from Europe and USA looking much better.

USA appears to have turned the corner. Provided they don't get another surge in new cases, it looks as though the growth in 'Active Cases' is coming down on a 3 point weighted average.

All on the same scale, we have:



UK has a longer flatter curve, but continues to grow slowly.




France has one of the higher growth rates, but they also report data in lumps which make it harder to assess, both in terms of new cases and recoveries.

Big surge in new cases today.

(no adjustment to recoveries - will add over the next week)




Germany enjoys a low mortality rate, but still has significant case numbers comparable to Italy and Spain. The low mortality rate has been attributed to the quality of the healthcare system.

(added 18,000 recoveries)




Spain appears to be past the worst of the pandemic and is now on the downward slope. Surprisingly similar curve to Germany, but with a higher mortality rate.

(added 30,000 recoveries)




Italy looks almost identical to Spain, just half a week earlier. Not seeing any recoveries coming through in the data matching the new cases 2-3 weeks previous.

(added 60,000 recoveries)




USA has started to slow in growth numbers over the last 3 days, and has hopefully turned the corner. Mike Pence, a self-confessed non-scientist is confident the US has turned a corner from the data he is looking at.

The US does not release much data in the way of recoveries, so no adjustments can be made until we see that data.

Separating out these growth curves, and looking at the together, we have:



Hopefully the US will drop rapidly now in terms of growth in cases.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Of course some of that drop in active cases is because of deaths.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Of course some of that drop in active cases is because of deaths.

Of course. Especially in the USA. The formula for adding extra recoveries is:

New positive case numbers 2-3 weeks ago minus Deaths today

I then compare that to see if it matched the actual reported recoveries.

In most cases, it turns out to be limited by the testing rate three weeks ago. It averages out to be about:

Italy: 4-5,000 per day
Spain: 2,500-3,500 per day
Germany: 3-4,000 per day

France is the hardest to model, but I will try this week.

[Tender Branson]

30 deaths here yesterday, highest number ever ...

But the number of hospitalisations and in ICU did not change a whole lot.

[FrancoAgo]

Data is missing from Italy regardless of the reports. Look at the New Cases vs New Recoveries:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Now look at New Cases vs New Recovies in China:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

The area under the curve should be essentially the same minus mortality.

Missing around 55,000-65,000 recoveries in Italy which should have had an outcome by now.

I'm agree there is a miss data, probably because the people in self isolation don't came tested for check they recovery, but we have no numbers

[Helsinkian]

In the latest episode of "China hoodwinking Europe", the millions of respirators Finland ordered from China at a cost many times that compared to normal times have proven to be inadequate for hospital use.

The rest of the world should really demand that China pay compensation for this pandemic.

[Lechasseur]

In the latest episode of "China hoodwinking Europe", the millions of respirators Finland ordered from China at a cost many times that compared to normal times have proven to be inadequate for hospital use.

The rest of the world should really demand that China pay compensation for this pandemic.

Yes

[Sir Mohamed]

In the latest episode of "China hoodwinking Europe", the millions of respirators Finland ordered from China at a cost many times that compared to normal times have proven to be inadequate for hospital use.

The rest of the world should really demand that China pay compensation for this pandemic.

I wouldn't bother, yup.

More important is the PRC and others consequently restrict wild animal trading and vigorously enforce said ban. These "food" markets, where humans and dead or alive animals are close together for a longer period of time, are the source for a zoonosis like this or the previous SARS pandemic of the early 2000s. Apparently they (and we) didn't learn the lesson from the first SARS virus. Now, despite SARS 1 having a higher mortality, we're poised to go through it again with worse consequences for human life and the global economy. And there remains to be huge potential for another pandemic in the future. If wild animal trading returns the normalcy once this is over, I guarantee we'll be talking about SARS 3 in some years.

[Meclazine for Israel]

In the latest episode of "China hoodwinking Europe", the millions of respirators Finland ordered from China at a cost many times that compared to normal times have proven to be inadequate for hospital use.

The rest of the world should really demand that China pay compensation for this pandemic.

I wouldn't bother, yup.

More important is the PRC and others consequently restrict wild animal trading and vigorously enforce said ban. These "food" markets, where humans and dead or alive animals are close together for a longer period of time, are the source for a zoonosis like this or the previous SARS pandemic of the early 2000s. Apparently they (and we) didn't learn the lesson from the first SARS virus. Now, despite SARS 1 having a higher mortality, we're poised to go through it again with worse consequences for human life and the global economy. And there remains to be huge potential for another pandemic in the future. If wild animal trading returns the normalcy once this is over, I guarantee we'll be talking about SARS 3 in some years.

I don't blame China. If you overpopulate the planet with too many people, biology has a way of controlling the population. It's called Overshoot.

It happen's in deer, kangaroos, fish and almost any population where a spike in numbers occur.

We have removed our natural predators, are no longer subject to evolution unless you live in remote Africa. We have increased the carrying capacity for humans on this planet 100 fold. We are ripening for a population reduction.

This virus is natures' reminder of what we really are. A biological entity governed by the laws of nature.

If we increase the population by a factor of ten, then it' simply a matter of time until another pandemic rages through our midst.

We are lucky this wasn't asymptomatic Ebola.

[Pulaski]

In the latest episode of "China hoodwinking Europe", the millions of respirators Finland ordered from China at a cost many times that compared to normal times have proven to be inadequate for hospital use.

The rest of the world should really demand that China pay compensation for this pandemic.

Honestly at this point China deserves to become an international pariah for this. Their inaction and downright deception will probably cost more lives than all of America's imperialist wars in the past 50 years.

(Of course, isolating nations doesn't work, so I'm not suggesting the world does it, but it's definitely tempting)

[parochial boy]

Government here has said they will start to ease the restrictions starting from the 26th of April. They will be determing a plan to gradually ease things up next week. Is it too early? It feels a bit early, we'll see.

[Mike88]

Portugal update:

699 new cases today, (+6%), elevating the total to 13,141 cases. The number of the deaths rose to 380, as well did the recovered to 196.

The good news is that the number of patients in ICU has dropped for the 1st time, from 271 yesterday to 245 today. We'll see how the trend goes in the next few days.

Also, almost 130,000 tests have been done unitil now.

The major concern now is the situation in nursing homes across the country. Mayors across the country are asking for more and more tests to test older people in these nursing homes.

[lfromnj]

In the latest episode of "China hoodwinking Europe", the millions of respirators Finland ordered from China at a cost many times that compared to normal times have proven to be inadequate for hospital use.

The rest of the world should really demand that China pay compensation for this pandemic.

Why did finland order millions of respirators?

[Zinneke]

In the latest episode of "China hoodwinking Europe", the millions of respirators Finland ordered from China at a cost many times that compared to normal times have proven to be inadequate for hospital use.

The rest of the world should really demand that China pay compensation for this pandemic.

Meanwhiel Merkel and Macron begged for masks and have given them a one way ticket to our digital data in exchange.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to a continuing survey of the University of Mannheim, support for a curfew in Germany has dropped from a peak of 50.9% on March 26 to 32.9% on April 6. Support for cancelling public events, closing public buildings and keeping the borders shut remains high at ca. 90% across the board, but the curfew number are in free fall.

[Helsinkian]

In the latest episode of "China hoodwinking Europe", the millions of respirators Finland ordered from China at a cost many times that compared to normal times have proven to be inadequate for hospital use.

The rest of the world should really demand that China pay compensation for this pandemic.

Why did finland order millions of respirators?

Millions are used every month in hospitals, so there's nothing odd about that. Perhaps you're confusing respirators with ventilators? N95 masks are respirators, for example.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In the latest episode of "China hoodwinking Europe", the millions of respirators Finland ordered from China at a cost many times that compared to normal times have proven to be inadequate for hospital use.

The rest of the world should really demand that China pay compensation for this pandemic.

Honestly at this point China deserves to become an international pariah for this. Their inaction and downright deception will probably cost more lives than all of America's imperialist wars in the past 50 years.

(Of course, isolating nations doesn't work, so I'm not suggesting the world does it, but it's definitely tempting)

Biden winning will be great for China.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2019/08/27/joe-biden-is-probably-the-only-man-who-can-save-china-in-202o/#12632bb53826

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest data shows Turkey and Brazil entering a family of large populations suffering from the Corona-virus pandemic according to data from Worldometers:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Just going through some of the data issues with each country and what it means for interpretation of the graphs you look at. Each country has it's own technique and although comparing countries is difficult, it can be done loosely if you realise what the variability is within each dataset.

UK

UK has a very high mortality rate based on current numbers. A mortality rate based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 21.0% (Total Deaths / Total Cases 7 days ago = 7,097/33,718)

Given that the actual final mortality rate appears closer to 0.8% worldwide, that would mean that the UK could

• either have 0.9 Million cases; or
• have only tested people who are sick or elderly; or
• simply have a much higher mortality rate in their population.

or combination thereof.

UK has reported less recoveries than deaths. In fact, their overall reporting is very unreliable for interpretation.

France

Data coming in is lumpy in terms of both recoveries and new cases.

A mortality rate based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 18.4% (Total Deaths / Total Cases 7 days ago = 10,869/59,105)

Again using similar statistics from the UK, France will:

• either have 1.4 Million cases; or
• have only tested people who are sick or elderly; or
• simply have a much higher mortality rate in their population.

or combination thereof.

Once recoveries are calculated properly over the next week, it should show the peak of 'Active Cases' has been reached in the next couple of days.

France has had some considerable step changes in their reporting regime for all data including cases, deaths and recoveries.

Germany

Germany has some good mortality data which based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 3.8% (Total Deaths / Total Cases 7 days ago = 2,349/61,247)

Divide this by the rate of asymptomatic cases in countries like China and Australia, and you get around 0.7-0.8% mortality which matches the global average.

Germany has recently caught up on lagging recovery numbers with 18,000 recoveries reported in the last two days. 3 days ago, I was missing 22,000 recoveries from Germany in the 'Active Case' curve, so this is a positive step in reporting.

Germany has a good dataset for interpretation.

Spain

Spain has a very clean dataset in terms of consistent daily reporting.

The mortality data which based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 19.7% (Total Deaths/Total Cases 7 days ago = 14,792/74,974)

Again using similar statistics from the UK and France, Spain will:

• either have 1.85 Million cases; or
• have only tested people who are sick or elderly; or
• simply have a much higher mortality rate in their population.

or combination thereof.

My modeling has a deficit of 32,000 recoveries which I have had to add these in to make sense of the Spanish data.

Italy

Italy has had the most media attention as the first country in Europe to have an outbreak, so they were the least prepared.

The current mortality data which based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 21.3% (Total Deaths/Total Cases 7 days ago = 17,669/83,049)

Again using similar statistics from the UK, France and Spain, Italy will:

• either have 2.21 Million cases; or
• have only tested people who are sick or elderly; or
• simply have a much higher mortality rate in their population.

or combination thereof.

Based on the data presented, I have included 62,500 recoveries on top of those reported from Italy.

USA

USA has massive numbers to look at.

The current mortality data which based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 6.45% (Total Deaths/Total Cases 7 days ago = 14,736/228,404)

Divide that by 5 for asymptomatic cases that never get tested, then we have around 1.3% mortality rate closer to that of Germany, China and Australia.

Now, if 0.8% is the true final rate, that means the US has 350,000 total cases at present.

Overall, this is looking good in terms of testing and reporting, and allows better predictive capacity for future decisions.

When President Trump and Dr Birx refer to testing anomalies in other countries and under-reporting, they are referring to the numbers above.

[Pulaski]

In the latest episode of "China hoodwinking Europe", the millions of respirators Finland ordered from China at a cost many times that compared to normal times have proven to be inadequate for hospital use.

The rest of the world should really demand that China pay compensation for this pandemic.

Honestly at this point China deserves to become an international pariah for this. Their inaction and downright deception will probably cost more lives than all of America's imperialist wars in the past 50 years.

(Of course, isolating nations doesn't work, so I'm not suggesting the world does it, but it's definitely tempting)

Biden winning will be great for China.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2019/08/27/joe-biden-is-probably-the-only-man-who-can-save-china-in-202o/#12632bb53826

Frankly any article written before the outbreak is not worth a whole lot to me anymore. Things are gonna change substantially and we have no idea how the chips are gonna fall.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated Italy charts.

National totals:


National totals, log scale:


Deaths
ICU
Other Hospitalized
Isolated Home
Cured

Total cases by region per million inhabitants, log scale:


Deaths by region per million inhabitants, log scale:



Genuinely good news this week. The curve has begun to actually flatten. While cases are still growing due to ramped-up testing, the number of hospitalizations (both in regular beds and ICUs) has been trending steadily down since Saturday. Of course, part of the downward trend is due to continued death (deceased+hospitalized total is still inching slightly up, albeit marginally), but even the daily death toll has finally begun to level off (from 700-800 earlier in the week to 500-600 now). There's still a long ways to go, and I have strong reservations about the government's plans to start reopening factories after Easter, but it does seem like the hard-lockdown imposed in the past few weeks has borne its fruits. Italy will have to keep living with the epidemic for a while still, but if we can ensure that new patients arrive in hospitals at the same rate as old ones are being cured, then we can get through this while saving as many lives as possible.


Growth rates by region. Main number is growth from 04/05 to 04/08 (parenthetical number 04/02 to 04/05).

Italy Total: 8.1% (11.9%)
Lombardy: 5.9% (9.5%)
Emilia-Romagna: 6.7% (11.5%)
Piemonte: 12.3% (19.4%)
Veneto: 10.5% (11.0%)
Other North: 10.7% (15.2%)
Center: 8.8% (10.8%)
South: 9.8% (15.0%)

Curve is flattening even down South, far from the epicenter. That's great news, as it means we will never see a repeat of Lombardy down there (which would be untenable for the shambolic healthcare systems of Southern regions). The North outside of Lombardy is still showing significant growth, but that might be due to increased testing.

[Pulaski]

Australia apparently recorded its first day of new cases being below 100 in three weeks. Of course, Easter Long Weekend is upon us, so those numbers may travel up again.

In NSW, our Arts Minister has been ordered back to Sydney, presumably to be sacked, after having been found to be staying in his holiday home in the Central Coast: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-09/nsw-coronavirus-infections-continue-to-drop/12134626

I have a lot of sympathy with him, actually; he apparently went up there weeks ago, before the latest restrictions were put in place. Surely they'd want him to stay put for now?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Australia apparently recorded its first day of new cases being below 100 in three weeks. Of course, Easter Long Weekend is upon us, so those numbers may travel up again.

In NSW, our Arts Minister has been ordered back to Sydney, presumably to be sacked, after having been found to be staying in his holiday home in the Central Coast: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-09/nsw-coronavirus-infections-continue-to-drop/12134626

I have a lot of sympathy with him, actually; he apparently went up there weeks ago, before the latest restrictions were put in place. Surely they'd want him to stay put for now?

Well they'd be better to sack the Health Minister Hazzard rather than sack him.