International COVID-19 Megathread

[CumbrianLefty]

Sweden's death toll per capita surpassed Norway and Denmark's, the government has asked for legislation to grant them emergency powers to enforce stricter measures including potential lockdown 😕

The "herd immunity" enthusiasts have been using Sweden as a poster boy, so this is "interesting if true".

[FrancoAgo]

Worldometers data
test each 1 million of population, only countries with 10 millions or more inhabitants,
China data N.A.
Australia: 11,653
Germany: 10,962
Italy: 10,870
South Korea: 8,996
Portugal: 8,470
Canada: 8,425
Spain: 7,593
Czech: 7,499
Belgium: 6,040
USA: 5,006
Russia: 4,776
Netherlands: 4,401
Azerbaijan: 3,945
Sweden: 3,654
France 3,436
United Kingdom: 2,880
Chile: 2,543

i've limited that with 2,500 or more

[Tender Branson]

Worldometers data
test each 1 million of population, only countries with 10 millions or more inhabitants,
China data N.A.
Australia: 11,653
Germany: 10,962
Italy: 10,870
South Korea: 8,996
Portugal: 8,470
Canada: 8,425
Spain: 7,593
Czech: 7,499
Belgium: 6,040
USA: 5,006
Russia: 4,776
Netherlands: 4,401
Azerbaijan: 3,945
Sweden: 3,654
France 3,436
United Kingdom: 2,880
Chile: 2,543

i've limited that with 2,500 or more

For comparison:

12.500 tests per 1 million here as of today.

[CumbrianLefty]

Virus related deaths in the UK down a bit to circa 620 yesterday, though this may just be the "weekend effect" again.

[Mike88]

Portugal update:

The number of cases rose to 11,278 today, a 7.2% increase, with 295 deaths. It's the 4th consecutive day with cases growth bellow 10%.

https://twitter.com/VOSTPT/status/1246761726151987200

About the number of tests, interesting that despite the reports that the number of tests in Portugal were low, the country doesn't look bad compared to other countries. Next week, we may surpass the 100,000 tests mark.

[Tirnam]

France:
70,478 confirmed cases (+1,873)
28,891 people hospitalized (+748)
6,978 people in intensive care (+140)
5,889 deaths in hospital (+357), 2,189 deaths in nursing homes (+161)

Hopefully this trend will continue.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1246894412472483841?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Sweden's death toll per capita surpassed Norway and Denmark's, the government has asked for legislation to grant them emergency powers to enforce stricter measures including potential lockdown 😕

The "herd immunity" enthusiasts have been using Sweden as a poster boy, so this is "interesting if true".

Yeah, which is strange because herd immunity is not even the goal. Like other countries, it's flattening the curve, but trying to achieve it with less strict measures.

To be clear: Sweden's curve is still not as steep as other countries', ICUs are not overwhelmed, the death toll per capita remains well below most other countries (which is why we are comparing to similar countries like Norway and Denmark), and the government merely asking for powers does not actually mean they intend to implement it right away, but rather are keeping it in reserve.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1246894412472483841

This is quite concerning. He's had symptoms for 10 days. I doubt they'd admit him just because he's got a cough & a fever. He must have deteriorated.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Some great news for people going crazy in isolation. You will be let out earlier than expected.

[tinfoilhat]

In terms of the top of the curve for Australia, Italy and Spain, I am saying that this has now been reached. But the 'official' data does not reflect that yet.

Based on growth rates, mortality, new case numbers, Italy and Spain should have seen their peak by now. But I could not figure out why.

Pulaski highlighted to me yesterday that in Australia, 1,800 recoveries were added suddenly to the Government stats. These were apparently from people who were isolating at home after a positive test, but there was no follow up by medical authorities. Certainly not daily, and nowhere near systematic enough to be used on these graphs effectively.

When I back-added these recoveries to the dataset over the last 7 days, it gave Australia a peak on April 2 2020.



That means Australia has already turned the corner and reached the top of the curve before we expected.

Now taking that thinking about recovered cases over to Europe.

Taking the UK, they are simply not reporting recovery data anywhere near what logical thought would assume the recoveries should be with a rate proportional to the new cases 10-14 days previous.

For Italy and Spain, I am seeing the same thing. Italy is simply not reporting recoveries anywhere near an appropriate level, and without those numbers, the curve will never 'peak'.

[statadjustment]

Now, assuming Italy and Spain have not been reporting recoveries from positive test patients isolating at home, I have added 4,000 recoveries per day to the Italian dataset and 3,000 recoveries per day to the Spanish dataset from a point in time 10-14 days following the accelerated diagnosis of new cases.

[/statadjustment]

That provides the following graphs:



Italy (Adjusted) Active Cases




Spain (Adjusted) Active Cases

These look more realistic relative to the mortality and daily new case rates coming in. The lag between new cases and mortality showed a correct lag. But the 'top of the curve' is not matching this 2 week lag until these adjustments are made.

It is unlikely that a country will have a peak in death rate before the peak in 'Active Cases'. Causative logic prescribes that one precedes the other.

They might be completely wrong, but I am assuming that Italy and Spain are not 'tracing' their positive cases from home who are recovering.

If correct, we will see Italy and Spain dump a large number of recoveries in the near future on a single day.

[/tinfoilhat]

[T'Chenka]

Canada taking a queue from Italy. Heartwarming.

https://youtu.be/hJW6kEmkHbY
From 1:25 in the video onwards.

[Tender Branson]

Austria - Monday morning update:

  12.238 positive cases (Sunday morning: 12.051, +187, +1.5%)
    1.074 hospitalized (1.056, +18) - of which:
       250 in ICUs (244, +6)
       220 dead (204, +16)

    3.463 recovered (2.998, +465)

111.296 tests performed

https://www.bmi.gv.at/news.aspx?id=4A7171477A51625143334D3D

[Tender Branson]

Active cases (= all cases, minus deaths & recovered) dropped by 3% from yesterday (8.555 vs. 8.849)

[FrancoAgo]

I am seeing the same thing. Italy is simply not reporting recoveries anywhere near an appropriate level, and without those numbers, the curve will never 'peak'.

AFAIK Italy report only recoveries from hospitals, Lombardy report both as yesterday 13,426 recoveries from hospitals (as reported also in the national report) and 14,798 recoveries w/o going in hospital

[Tender Branson]

Press statement from Chancellor Kurz right now.

Austria to gradually re-open the economy next Tuesday after Easter.

Easter only with family with whom you live

Chancellor Kurz delivers an international overview and speaks of a dramatic situation. The virus continues to spread immensely. In Italy, there are also more than 15,000 deaths.

Austria had reacted faster and more restrictively than other countries and this prevented the worst. "If we continue to consistently adhere to the measures, we could loosen them earlier than in other countries."

Easter week will be a crucial week, hence the Chancellor's request: "Keep the measures, but above all do not celebrate with your relatives and family, but stay with the people you live with."

From 14.4. on, Austria may open the first shops again

Kurz wants to give Austrians a perspective, an overview of how a gradual opening can take place. The goal is that on April 14th, i.e. Tuesday after Easter, small shops up to 400 square meters as well as DIY and garden centers may reopen under strict security requirements.

From May 1st, all shops, shopping centers and hairdressers are to open again - under special protection. All other services, restaurants and hotels will only be able to open in stages from mid May at the earliest. The decision will be made at the end of April.

The Matura graduation tests and the apprenticeship tests are carried out. Home schooling will have to continue until mid-May. School support is still guaranteed.

Exit restrictions until the end of April

There will be no events until the end of June, at the end of April it will be decided what will happen in the summer. In the areas of education, sports and freedom of travel there will be a press conference of the ministers responsible.

The exit restrictions will be extended until the end of April. There are still only four reasons to leave the house: work, shop, support other people and stretch your legs, get some fresh air.

Kurz asks that the measures continue in a disciplined manner, otherwise it will not be possible to implement this plan.

New normalcy

There should be accompanying measures, Kurz explains further. In particular, protection of vulnerable groups and a new normalcy - so keep your distance and cover your mouth and nose. Wearing masks will be mandatory from next Monday - not only in supermarkets, but also on public transport.

Kurz asks the population "to give everything again" and to adhere to the measures, "even if it is difficult. Anything else would mean that the disease spreads faster and we would gamble away what we have achieved so far."

The Chancellor says we have weathered the crisis better than most other countries. But we should continue to stand together, everyone must make their contribution.

Live thread (derStandard.at)

[Meclazine for Israel]

I am seeing the same thing. Italy is simply not reporting recoveries anywhere near an appropriate level, and without those numbers, the curve will never 'peak'.

AFAIK Italy report only recoveries from hospitals, Lombardy report both as yesterday 13,426 recoveries from hospitals (as reported also in the national report) and 14,798 recoveries w/o going in hospital

Thanks. Can you get me the total recoveries from Italy nationally please?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

This page is only listing 21,815 as recovered whilst my modelling suggests we should be seeing around 50,000-65,000 recoveries nationally in Italy as of today.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Big developments here. The Sejm has rejected voting by mail proposal, with every opposition party, plus Gowin and his boys (that are now leaving the government) being agains, basically depraving PiS of its' majority.

There's no way this election is happening in May.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, good to know that - unlike Hungary - checks and balances are still sort of working in Poland.

[Lechasseur]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheAgeofShoddy/status/1247111328675717120

[FrancoAgo]

Thanks. Can you get me the total recoveries from Italy nationally please?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

This page is only listing 21,815 as recovered whilst my modelling suggests we should be seeing around 50,000-65,000 recoveries nationally in Italy as of today.

Unlucky i can't, i known the Lombardy number because their press conference was transmitted daily on national TV channels just before of national press conference, i know they transmit also Veneto press conference but the morning i don't see it commonly, i never see other regional press conference

[Meclazine for Israel]

Thanks. Can you get me the total recoveries from Italy nationally please?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

This page is only listing 21,815 as recovered whilst my modelling suggests we should be seeing around 50,000-65,000 recoveries nationally in Italy as of today.

Unlucky i can't, i known the Lombardy number because their press conference was transmitted daily on national TV channels just before of national press conference, i know they transmit also Veneto press conference but the morning i don't see it commonly, i never see other regional press conference

That's OK.

But what you are saying is that Lombardy on it's own has over 27,000 recoveries.

[FrancoAgo]

But what you are saying is that Lombardy on it's own has over 27,000 recoveries.

So they told in their yesterday press conference, actually are over 28,000 recoveries

[Tender Branson]

This is making waves in newspapers abroad it seems ...

https://twitter.com/FT/status/1247143130597666819

Not sure if this is already a good idea.

Kurz and the Greens' crisis management has been pretty good so far, but I'd wait another month or so to gradually open up the economy again.

[Lechasseur]

This is making waves in newspapers abroad it seems ...

https://twitter.com/FT/status/1247143130597666819

Not sure if this is already a good idea.

Kurz and the Greens' crisis management has been pretty good so far, but I'd wait another month or so to gradually open up the economy again.

I'd wait until the end of April personally

[CumbrianLefty]

Though people are going to *need* some sort of indication when lockdowns will at least be eased soon  - otherwise a breakdown of its effectiveness, with chaotic and likely disastrous consequences, is inevitable.

In that context Austria is doing the right thing, even though timings can be questioned.