International COVID-19 Megathread

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

We're now oficially at 71 deaths (versus 116 recoveries). As I've indicated in my previous post, the actual figure of those who died is probably higher.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

North Korea insists it is free of coronavirus

I imagine it must be pretty bad down there.

[CumbrianLefty]

Over 700 virus related deaths in the UK yesterday, another small increase.

[Tirnam]

France:
68,605 confirmed cases (+4,267)
5,532 people have died in hospital (+441)
28,143 people are currently hospitalized because of Covid-19 (+771), 6,838 are in intensive care (+176). These numbers continue to slowing down, hopefully in the next few days they will start to decrease.

Around 21,000 cases (confirmed or suspected) in nursing homes and 2,028 deaths.

[Lechasseur]

Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has stated that confinement will "probably" be extended.

So France will be under stay-at-home order until at least the end of April.

[PSOL]

Ukrainian doctors fly to Italy to help combat coronavirus. So now there’s two poorer nations helping a so called developed one.

[urutzizu]

Turns out that whole Story about the Masks intended for Berlin being stolen by the US was false - so unequivocally, we are the Bad guys after all. The Berlin Government jumped to false conclusions too fast. SAD!

https://www.n-tv.de/panorama/USA-haben-Schutzmasken-doch-nicht-abgefangen-article21693615.html

[brucejoel99]

North Korea insists it is free of coronavirus

I imagine it must be pretty bad down there.

I mean, they landed a man on the surface of the Sun a few years ago, so this is completely feasible

Ukrainian doctors fly to Italy to help combat coronavirus. So now there’s two poorer nations helping a so called developed one.

Hats off to them.

[Pulaski]

For the moment, things seem to be under control in Australia. The number of new cases is steadily falling each day, and given our high testing rates, that should be close to the truth. (https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers)

Not only that, but I'm predicting that either today or tomorrow, for the first time we should see official recovered numbers outpace new cases. Our recovered numbers are severely underreported given that NSW (our largest state with more than double the cases of anywhere else) doesn't report recovered numbers at all, and only Victoria (our second-largest state) reports them daily. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704)

Regardless of these limitations, we already saw recoveries almost equal new cases just the other day, and new cases have dropped dramatically since then. When we get new recovery numbers, they're likely to significantly outnumber new cases (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/).

Of course, like every other country in the world, how we deal with this long-term is anyone's guess. Modelling is suggesting that even if we stay locked down for 3 months, we'll see a huge uptick once we open things back up (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-03/coronavirus-data-modelling-covid19-stay-home/12114978). We just have to hope that reliable antibody testing can be rolled out quickly, to determine who is safe to go back to work. But as of right now, Australia is doing very well.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The number of new cases is steadily falling each day, and given our high testing rates, that should be close to the truth.

Maybe next week, we will see zero growth, but we need to see a big increase in recoveries above the current rate to get there tomorrow.



Australian Active Cases

[Edu]

Argentina is preparing to relax the quarantine in  1 week. Classes won't start again until june, but people under 65 will probably be allowed to more or less go on with their lives and go to work (probably only some other sectors of the economy that aren't currently an exception, but detail aren't that clear right now). Of course, in a week it can all change, who knows. I'm guessing that since the peak is expected in mid may, we are going to have another general lockdown sometime next month.

Today is basically a month since our first case and we are standing right now at 1451 cases and 43 deaths

[America Needs R'hllor]

Ukrainian doctors fly to Italy to help combat coronavirus. So now there’s two poorer nations helping a so called developed one.

Why use that tone? Kudos to the Ukrainian doctors.

[Pulaski]

The number of new cases is steadily falling each day, and given our high testing rates, that should be close to the truth.

Maybe next week, we will see zero growth, but we need to see a big increase in recoveries above the current rate to get there tomorrow.



Australian Active Cases

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

April 2nd saw 266 new cases reported, with 240 recoveries. Since then, new cases have dropped too. We haven't received any new recovery stats since then but that's largely due to the reporting issue; if you look at the second-to-last graph, you see that you usually have one or two days of no recoveries followed by big spikes. The spikes are getting bigger as more people recover; the next spike should be larger than the number of new cases on that particular day. Obviously these numbers are going to bounce around for a while and our overall growth rate will take a little longer to reach zero, but our first day where recoveries officially outnumber new cases is very likely to be in the next couple of days.

P.S. is that your own vintage guitars store?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Yes,

Thanks for the analysis. Sounds legit.

[Tender Branson]

The worst in Austria is over.

Cases have risen by only 200 in the past 24 hours, or by 2%.

There are now more than twice as many confirmed recovered cases (500 per day) than confirmed new infections.

Hospitalized people (~1.100) and those in intensive care units (~250) remain stable, or drop.

Deaths might continue to rise (from a low level), because old people in ICUs and the heavy treatment there (you've got tubes stuck in your throat for over 2 weeks at age 80 or 90 for oxygen).

I would still like to keep the current measures in place for another 2-3 months though, such as mandatory masked shopping etc.

[Tender Branson]

Austria - Sunday morning update:

  12.051 positive cases (Saturday morning: 11.781, +270, +2.3%)
    1.056 hospitalized (1.071, -15) - of which:
       244 in ICUs (245, -1)
       204 dead (186, +18)

    2.998 recovered (2.507, +491)

108.416 tests performed

https://www.bmi.gv.at/news.aspx?id=4A7171477A51625143334D3D

[Tender Branson]

Austria - Sunday morning update:

  12.051 positive cases (Saturday morning: 11.781, +270, +2.3%)
    1.056 hospitalized (1.071, -15) - of which:
       244 in ICUs (245, -1)
       204 dead (186, +18)

    2.998 recovered (2.507, +491)

108.416 tests performed

https://www.bmi.gv.at/news.aspx?id=4A7171477A51625143334D3D

Interesting to note that the Interior Ministry includes the number of deaths in their daily headline numbers (12.051) - while the Social Ministry excludes them in their daily reports and hourly dashboard figures.

https://info.gesundheitsministerium.at

[Tender Branson]

So far, no increase in domestic violence cases has been registered during the past 3 weeks of lockdown in Austria.

In fact, crime seems to have gone down significantly.

On the other hand, I guess the real dimensions of domestic abuse will only be uncovered in the next years after the lockdown has been lifted and police start their searches for missing women and children down in the basements ...

[Pulaski]

Quite an update here in Australia - the government is now estimating over 2000 people have already recovered, putting active case numbers at 3372. Very encouraging signs that we might be able to navigate through the first peak, and give ourselves time and options: https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/04/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-infographic_0.pdf

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Sweden's death toll per capita surpassed Norway and Denmark's, the government has asked for legislation to grant them emergency powers to enforce stricter measures including potential lockdown 😕

[Lechasseur]

According to CNews, the total lockdown in France will probably end at the end of April, but restrictions will still apply in France for a while after that.

https://www.cnews.fr/france/2020-04-05/fin-du-confinement-pour-quand-et-comment-942659?amp

[Meclazine for Israel]

Quite an update here in Australia - the government is now estimating over 2000 people have already recovered, putting active case numbers at 3372. Very encouraging signs that we might be able to navigate through the first peak, and give ourselves time and options: https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/04/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-infographic_0.pdf

Good spot. My graphs to my Facebook friends are going to look flash tomorrow once those numbers are incorporated. They have been freaking out because of the severely low quality of media during the lockdown.

I want the lockdowns to end so my TV stops showing ads with selfie home videos from B grade TV celebrities singing "Oh What a Wonderful World" and others telling us "We are all in this together".

To rub salt in the wounds, we then have C grade TV celebrities pretending to love it with fake smiles.

Make it stop.

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, Germany’s numbers on cases and deaths are becoming more and more comparable with ours on a per capita basis, if you divide them by 9.

(German growth rates are now slightly higher than ours on both measures, so they are „catching“ up.)

Switzerland on the other hand is more a mix of Germany/Austria and France ...

[parochial boy]

Meanwhile, Germany’s numbers on cases and deaths are becoming more and more comparable with ours on a per capita basis, if you divide them by 9.

(German growth rates are now slightly higher than ours on both measures, so they are „catching“ up.)

Switzerland on the other hand is more a mix of Germany/Austria and France ...

Done a lot more testing here, per capita. But also a less strict lockdown which was brought in a couple of days later and, for obvious reasons, Switzerland was far, far more exposed to the outbreak in Lombardy than either Austria or Germany, or basically anywhere else in the world for that matter. In particular Ticino, which is has only 4% of the population, but is also by far the oldest canton (23% over 65 years old - higher than Italy), and has 12% of the cases and over 25% of the deaths.

We also had a few hiccoughs at the start of the crisis when the insurers tried to refuse to pay for the tests, which led to some precious time being lost - yet another advantage of the miraculous "private insurance" system.

The important thing is that there are signs of a slow decline in case numbers and we are starting to see a decline in the number of people in intensive care - so there is a fair amount of optimism that we aren't going to have a French or Italian style situation where the healthcare system is overwhelmed.

[Pulaski]

Quite an update here in Australia - the government is now estimating over 2000 people have already recovered, putting active case numbers at 3372. Very encouraging signs that we might be able to navigate through the first peak, and give ourselves time and options: https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/04/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-infographic_0.pdf

Good spot. My graphs to my Facebook friends are going to look flash tomorrow once those numbers are incorporated. They have been freaking out because of the severely low quality of media during the lockdown.

I want the lockdowns to end so my TV stops showing ads with selfie home videos from B grade TV celebrities singing "Oh What a Wonderful World" and others telling us "We are all in this together".

To rub salt in the wounds, we then have C grade TV celebrities pretending to love it with fake smiles.

Make it stop.

Australian TV outside the ABC is 95% C and D-grade celebrities showing how untalented they are at singing, dancing, cooking, presenting etc. Trash-grade reality TV wall-to-wall. I avoid it whenever possible.