International COVID-19 Megathread

[CumbrianLefty]

The British response has been getting a bit of attention. The news here featured it using a Yes, Prime Minister sketch and then showed a load of tabloid headlines that seemed to think it was World War 2 again. Implication being that the UK seems to be having a totally normal one.

We've also had the head of pub chain Wetherspoons (a fanatical pro-Brexit ideologue) openly scoffing at the idea of shutting his establishments down and saying employees will have to turn up to work or be sacked.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I do think if the world and everything in it has to go into lockdown for a year to fight a disease that really doesn't affect many under the age of 50, but cuts like a knife through butter amongst the over 70's that there will be potential riots if not outright revolution unless those who are of working age are adequately secured/compensated by massive economic reform in their favour if they are to sacrifice (for many another) a decade of their working life and years of their social life. Otherwise, as an earlier poster said 'just let the olds die' won't be something said ironically.

The problem with this perspective, and most such perspectives centred round the idea of general conflict, is that most of us have at least one relative over the age of 70 that we're fond of.

You cannot deliver any political agenda if you base it around the premise that it will hurt people's grandparents. Even the converse doesn't work - many conservative parties seek the votes of the elderly with policies that implicitly or explicitly hurt the young, but to the extent this is admitted it tends to come with an assurance that this is for their own good.

While this is true, one shouldn't underestimate human beings' abilities to ignore rational thought and reconcile seemingly contradictoray beliefs with each other in order to see the world how they want it to see it, especially under extreme duress. Granted, an outright and open "let the olds die" movement might not be able to win any majority. But what if someone starts to soften it down a bit, making it more ambiguous..

After months of lockdown, you'll probably start to find a number of people who'd at least secretly agree to a statement like: I don't really care anymore how many are dying as long as only my own grandparents are safe.

On a more complex level it could amount to: you're the damn government, it's your responsibility to come up with an alternative solution that both protects the vulnerable and lets the rest of us return to our normal lifes and if you're unable to do so maybe that shows that we need a different system of government now.

A revolution doesn't need to propose any actual constructive solution, it only needs to be a form of protest against something... an outburst of discontent.

[Mike88]

The British response has been getting a bit of attention. The news here featured it using a Yes, Prime Minister sketch and then showed a load of tabloid headlines that seemed to think it was World War 2 again. Implication being that the UK seems to be having a totally normal one.

The 4 stage strategy?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak

[Antonio the Sixth]

475 more deaths in Italy today, total death toll is almost at 3000. 35K total cases, of which 28K active.

[bore]

I've been putting my rudimentary italian to use and reading some of the coverage there, so there are a couple of articles worth sharing which go into a bit more depth about the numbers we've been seeing:

1. Firstly, this chart (which in fairness I got from the cesspool that is Vote UK):


Note that ricoverati means "in hospital" guariti means healed and tamponi means number of tests (literally swabs), everything else should be self evident. This shows us a few things. Apart from in the Veneto, there have been almost no tests in the community (because if that were the case then 2/3rds of people with the virus would need hospitalisation, and we know that's not true), so the figures dramatically understate how many people in Italy have the disease. But also, it emphasises that at the moment we can't talk of an Italian disaster, only of a Lombardy disaster. For instance, Campania, more than half the size of Lombardy, has only 9 deaths so far. That will rise, and the risk (and, in fact, likelihood) is that there will be overwhelming of the health system there too, but it hasn't happened yet. The naive incidence in Lombardy is about 1 in 500 (10 million divided by 17,713) but, combining these two things, the actual incidence is already probably around 1% or even more of the population. This has real implications for the future, because it means that the virus is already completely embedded in italian society.

2. This article talks about the death stats from up till yesterday. My translation of the first paragraph:

Among victims of the coronavirus to date women have been less likely to die than men (601 compared to 1402) and their average age was higher (83.7 compared to 79.5). 17 of those deaths were under the age of 50, 5 of which were not yet 40, all men with serious prior conditions. This is the data that emerges from a report of the Institute of Health on the characteristics of those who died from Covid-19

The very sharp age gap has been commented a lot, but while I was aware of the difference between men's and women's outcomes I didn't realise it was as pronounced as this. Women's immune systems are in general better than mens (why they're more likely to suffer from autoimmune diseases like Caeliac) so I imagine its largely because of this, helped along by differentials in things like smoking. The other semi notable conclusion is that 68% of the deceased suffered from pre existing conditions, which is surprisingly low, although I suppose that at least some of those 32% just had one undiagnosed.

3. This article says that 2629 (8.3%) of the known cases are healthcare workers. This is no doubt in large part because healthcare workers will be the only people, apart from celebrities and politicians, who are tested with mild symptoms. But it does emphasise just how contagious this disease is if so many doctors and nurses have come down with it, and is another indication of just how widespread it now is in Italian society.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I do think if the world and everything in it has to go into lockdown for a year to fight a disease that really doesn't affect many under the age of 50, but cuts like a knife through butter amongst the over 70's that there will be potential riots if not outright revolution unless those who are of working age are adequately secured/compensated by massive economic reform in their favour if they are to sacrifice (for many another) a decade of their working life and years of their social life. Otherwise, as an earlier poster said 'just let the olds die' won't be something said ironically.

The problem with this perspective, and most such perspectives centred round the idea of general conflict, is that most of us have at least one relative over the age of 70 that we're fond of.

You cannot deliver any political agenda if you base it around the premise that it will hurt people's grandparents. Even the converse doesn't work - many conservative parties seek the votes of the elderly with policies that implicitly or explicitly hurt the young, but to the extent this is admitted it tends to come with an assurance that this is for their own good.

While this is true, one shouldn't underestimate human beings' abilities to ignore rational thought and reconcile seemingly contradictoray beliefs with each other in order to see the world how they want it to see it, especially under extreme duress. Granted, an outright and open "let the olds die" movement might not be able to win any majority. But what if someone starts to soften it down a bit, making it more ambiguous..

After months of lockdown, you'll probably start to find a number of people who'd at least secretly agree to a statement like: I don't really care anymore how many are dying as long as only my own grandparents are safe.

On a more complex level it could amount to: you're the damn government, it's your responsibility to come up with an alternative solution that both protects the vulnerable and lets the rest of us return to our normal lifes and if you're unable to do so maybe that shows that we need a different system of government now.

A revolution doesn't need to propose any actual constructive solution, it only needs to be a form of protest against something... an outburst of discontent.

Maybe to further elaborate on how I arrived at my line of thought, because I think that's still severely underestimated... as a few of you may know part my dayjob includes the communication with your Average Joe Sixpack via e-mails and social media.

An increasingly frequent argument I'm confronted with in recent days would go like this: You're about to cause another Great Depression (not Recession) in a noble, but misguided attempt to save 80-year-old people's which ultimately may prove to be ill-fated and pointless anyway. In the flu season of 2017/18 a total of 25,000 people died in Germany. Now we have still less than 30 deaths in the country, but back in 2017/18 you didn't initiate the collapse of our economy over it. So, why now?

I expect messages like that to further increase in numbers the longer this drags on. And personally, I find the aforementioned argument harder to repudiate than, let's say, your usual climate change denial (althoug I still try to...). So, unless we give everyone a crash course in epidiomology fast sh**t is gonna hit the fan eventually.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The death toll in Italy apparently may be HIGHER than reported (which is already shockingly high). This is because apparently there is a surge of deaths in nursing homes, and they are not being tested.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-homes-insigh/uncounted-among-coronavirus-victims-deaths-sweep-through-italys-nursing-homes-idUSKBN2152V0?il=0

MILAN (Reuters) - As the official death toll from Italy’s coronavirus outbreak passes 2,500, a silent surge in fatalities in nursing homes, where dozens of patients a day are dying untested for the virus, suggests the real total may be higher.

...

While no detailed data is available, officials, nurses and relatives say there has been a spike in nursing home deaths in the worst affected regions of northern Italy since the virus emerged, and they are not showing up in coronavirus statistics.

“There are significant numbers of people who have died but whose death hasn’t been attributed to the coronavirus because they died at home or in a nursing home and so they weren’t swabbed,” said Giorgio Gori, mayor of the town of Bergamo.

Gori said there had been 164 deaths in his town in the first two weeks of March this year, of which 31 were attributed to the coronavirus. That compares with 56 deaths over the same period last year.

Even adding the 31 coronavirus deaths to that total would leave 77 additional deaths, an increase that suggests the virus may have caused significantly more deaths than officially recorded.

[FrancoAgo]

bore actually ISS report tell us that only 3 on 2003 deaths have not prior conditions
also is not only the Veneto that test also symptomless, this is clear, see the table

[Meclazine for Israel]

Tasmania introduces a state based isolation system.

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/tas/coronavirus-crisis-tasmania-brings-in-australias-strictest-border-policy-ng-b881493571z

Coincidentally, Tasmania avoided problems in 1918 by introducing similar measures.

[Tender Branson]

The whole state of Tyrol has been put under quarantine at midnight, meaning nobody can leave their town (except if there's no doctor, bank, supermarket in that town).

[Velasco]

The numbers of registered cases in Spain are likely to be significantly higher from now on, as people with light symptoms will begin to take the test. Mortality rate might decrease in compensation

[T'Chenka]

https://youtu.be/r5yAHW44BSA

Merkel's address to Germany was IMO pretty good. Better than Trudeau usualy does and definitely better than Trump.

[CumbrianLefty]

I've been putting my rudimentary italian to use and reading some of the coverage there, so there are a couple of articles worth sharing which go into a bit more depth about the numbers we've been seeing:

1. Firstly, this chart (which in fairness I got from the cesspool that is Vote UK):

Hell, if that place is a "cesspool" what does that make Facebook and Twitter?

(and yes, as with a few regulars on here I am slightly biased)

[bore]

bore actually ISS report tell us that only 3 on 2003 deaths have not prior conditions

Thanks for this clarification, I don't know where tgcom got the 68.3% thing from, which just goes to show you shouldn't absolutely trust Berlusconi. I went and checked the original ISS report and you're right that that figure doesn't come up at all. It's worth noting though that they say that they only have data for 355 patients, not 2003, so we can only say that 3 out of 355 had no prior conditions.

also is not only the Veneto that test also symptomless, this is clear, see the table

This, on the other hand, seems harder to believe. We know enough about Coronavirus now, from places with reliable evidence like the Diamond Princess and South Korea, to say that a very large proportion of cases are either asymptomatic or mild enough to need no hospital treatment. We can thus estimate from the number of serious cases (hospitalisations and deaths) the number of cases of home isolation you would have to have to also be testing asymptomatic and mild people, and the numbers in the table (I think, given the very low numbers in the bottom half, and thus their inherent skew, that you can only really look in the more prevalent regions) demonstrate that's not happening.

If Lombardy was testing asymptomatic people, it would not have only 1/3 of those found positive in domestic isolation, if Emilia Romagna was doing so, it would not have only 1/2 in domestic isolation. Veneto really is the only region (actually, possibly Lazio, though it still has a low enough base to skew things) with a substantial number of cases where there is the sort of ratio between tests and positive results, and between home isolation and hospitalisation that suggests community testing, though even there the ratios are lower than is true for countries which are doing true community testing.

[Lechasseur]

In the Belgian news they're talking about the lockdowns lasting between 2 and 6 months

[bore]

I've been putting my rudimentary italian to use and reading some of the coverage there, so there are a couple of articles worth sharing which go into a bit more depth about the numbers we've been seeing:

1. Firstly, this chart (which in fairness I got from the cesspool that is Vote UK):

Hell, if that place is a "cesspool" what does that make Facebook and Twitter?

(and yes, as with a few regulars on here I am slightly biased)

I do lurk and very occassionally post on Vote UK too, and there are a lot of very interesting posters with thoughtful perspectives, I wouldn't deny that. But the culture, despite, or perhaps because of the veneer of erudition (I say veneer because though its real, its much less real than a lot of people there think), can be absolutely as toxic as the worst of social media. For instance this has stayed with me since I read it a couple of months ago. It would, in any morally healthy environment, have seen its poster shamed by the entire community, but in the thread it attracted almost no comment or opprobium at all. And I know that particular individual is seen as something of a forum institution, and his crankery indulged as one of his amusing foibles, but he is by no means the only example, and even if he were it would show something quite rotten about the place that its allowed to fester.

[Helsinkian]

In Finland the parliament is asking that the parties send only a quarter of their MPs to the plenary at one time (50 out of 200 present at one time, all in all), and that those MPs are not seated next to each other. All parties obviously have to co-operate so that that doesn't affect the government majority.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Confirmed cases: 325
Suspected cases: 923

Recovered: 14 (+13)
Deaths: 5 (no change)

[parochial boy]

800 cases in Switzerland today, the number of cases per day is jumping around all over the place, which is apparently down to the cantons reporting individually and the fact that the OFSP (public health authority) is doing it's reporting using ... a fax machine... in 2020... in one of the richest countries on the planet...

I just don't understand where the stereotype that the Swiss are slow comes from.

[Zinneke]

In the Belgian news they're talking about the lockdowns lasting between 2 and 6 months

Unsustainable, but I think you mean social distancing.

[Lechasseur]

In the Belgian news they're talking about the lockdowns lasting between 2 and 6 months

Unsustainable, but I think you mean social distancing.

Well here's the article in French, it does use the term "confinement" which would translate to lockdown, and not "social distancing"

https://www.lalibre.be/planete/sante/le-comportement-des-belges-sera-determinant-face-au-coronavirus-cela-peut-durer-six-mois-s-ils-ne-respectent-pas-les-regles-5e707fca9978e201d8bf13bb

[Sir Mohamed]

Scary

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1240625994450587649

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1240629550201143297

[Tender Branson]

There will be a HUGE toll on the economy this year:

Lots of companies are currently going bankrupt or shutting down, the daily (!) numbers of people filing unemployment claims is 15.000

In the past 3 days, 50.000 additional people in Austria became unemployed.

Before this week, there was a balance between people filing new unemployment claims vs. those finding new jobs or even more new jobs than unemployment claims - resulting in lower unemployment in general.

Not any longer.

This will be far worse than 2008/09 ...

[Lechasseur]

This will be far worse than 2008/09 ...

Yeah

[Tender Branson]

Coronavirus also has positive side effects:

Pollution levels in the atmosphere are down significantly, as seen in satellite images from ESA.

The curfews and shutdowns of heavy industries and traffic can be clearly seen.