International COVID-19 Megathread

[parochial boy]

In the near future, we might have some companies starting to think long and hard about how China, or Asia, or even "abroad" fits into their supply chain planning as a whole.

What do you mean?

In the world as it is, it isn't so much just the fact that things are "Made in China", but lots of finished products have components that are made and assembled over by a number of different suppliers in a number of different countries across the world.

For the most part, this has had its advantages in allowing businesses to take advantage of things like comparitive advantage, specialisation, economies of scale across the world (eg cheaper labour in country x, proximity to natural resources in country y, better skills in country z). The downside of this, as the virus seems to be making clear, is that one disruption in the network can be the cog in the machine that brings the whole mechanism to a halt. Which is why you have had the likes of car manufacturers in Korea or pharma companies in the west having to shut down production, they can't get the parts they need.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to German-language Zeit Online liveblog:

More than 130 confirmed infections so far in the outbreak in northern Italy, the bulk of them (89) in the region of Lombardy. Several affected villages have been quarantined. Carnival of Venice has been cancelled.

[CumbrianLefty]

So.......how bad could it get?

[Mike88]

According to German-language Zeit Online liveblog:

More than 130 confirmed infections so far in the outbreak in northern Italy, the bulk of them (89) in the region of Lombardy. Several affected villages have been quarantined. Carnival of Venice has been cancelled.

It seems that the patient zero is someone who was in China and returned to Italy on 21 January. He didn't had any  symptomsand went on with his life as normal. From the Portuguese on-line newspaper Observador:

The Italian patient zero

The coronavirus arrived in Italy via Lombardy on January 21. An Italian, from China, would bring the virus with him, but he showed no symptoms, which is why he continued his normal life. According to La Stampa, he was even tested at a Milan Hospital, but the results were negative. Health officials estimate that perhaps he was no longer infected by then.

In the meantime, however, he contacted several people and reportedly infected a friend, 38, resident in Codogno. This friend's wife, eight months pregnant, would also be infected. This second man would eventually transmit the virus to three customers in a bar where he usually went and to five health professionals.

[parochial boy]

Something like 70'000 commuters cross from Lombardy into Switzerland into every day, as of yet no special measures being put in to place on the border.

It's, um, a little bit scary.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Update on Italy: 152 infections, 3 deaths

[Middle-aged Europe]

After two train passengers from Italy were suspected of being infected, Austria has suspended all rail traffic with Italy.

[urutzizu]

Something like 70'000 commuters cross from Lombardy into Switzerland into every day, as of yet no special measures being put in to place on the border.

It's, um, a little bit scary.

And it is yet another frustrating Example of the European Idea, EU, Euro, and in this Case Schengen becoming completely dysfunctional, because countries act unilaterally in their own short-term interest, instead of in concert, protecting their common interest. How is Schengen supposed to deal with an outbreak like this, when all countries agree to stop Issuing Schengen Visas to China, except France (led by a certain so-called pro-European), who refuse, because Chinese Investment comes first. How is Italy banning flights to China supposed to achieve anything, when anyone can just get on a flight to Munich and then take the train to Italy. You only need one weak link and the whole thing just breaks down, and now the Virus is in Europe and is practically impossible to contain. It almost, but only almost, makes me think that the Brexiteers may have inadvertently had a point after all.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Italy update: 209 infections, six deaths.

[Santander]

SARS Epidemic only killed 176.

More people than that died from the normal flu this year in my home town.

This is just China freaking out because they have a new strain of the Flu.

It's a very Asian thing to freak about communicable diseases and wear masks.

The African continent has about 80 diseases worse than this and they are roaming around freely without concern.

It's the response, not the disease.

China are building a new hospital within 2 weeks. I am calling bullsh**t. Not on the disease, but it's severity.

Remember when this bigot said it's not that serious?

[It’s so Joever]

So.......how bad could it get?

At worst, millions could die and the World will be in complete political/social upheaval for at least a decade.
More realistically, hundreds of thousands of people die, but the deaths are concentrated in old people and the World is able to move on, although with a more tense/worried atmosphere than before.

[It’s so Joever]

Whether or not the changes turn out to be that big, what is the case is that the way proponents of globalisation have pronounced it as "unstoppable" and "inevitable" - as if it was like the weather or some sort of act of God - was never as true as they made it out to be.

There are very few things in this world that are not, to at least a significant degree, a choice.

Generally I’m a fan of globalism, but times of epidemics are the opposite and I do think countries should ban flights/close borders as needed. All that being said, to blame “globalism” for the disease itself is shortsighted. The lack of effective regulations regarding wet markets in China is what allowed this to occur.

[PSOL]

So apparently there are people sick in Qom, raising the chances that the mullahs are apart of the sick.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Italy update: 288 infections, 7 fatalities.

First reported cases of the virus in southern Italy, Austria, Croatia, Switzerland, and mainlaind Spain. In addition, an entire hotel on the Spanish island of Tenerife has been quarantined after an Italian tourist had been tested positive.

Iran: Deputy health minister Iraj Harirchi has been infected with the Coronavirus and is now under quarantine.

[Tender Branson]

Silly hysteria IMO.

The lethal rate is only 2% of those infected and the vast majority is old people above 80 ...

[rc18]

Silly hysteria IMO.

The lethal rate is only 2% of those infected and the vast majority is old people above 80 ...

2% means it is something like 20 times more lethal than the flu.  2% of a lot of people is a lot of people.

Also a significant number of those infected require medical attention, often for a long period of time, perhaps something like 10%.  No country in the world has the capacity to treat that many people effectively, let alone in addition to non-coronavirus related illnesses.

[President Johnson]

Update: One more case in Germany. This time in Baden-Württemberg (my state). Apparantly a 25 year old man who recently traveled to Italy.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Italy: 322 infections, 11 fatalities

[dead0man]

So apparently there are people sick in Qom, raising the chances that the mullahs are apart of the sick.

Iran's deputy health minister says he has coronavirus

Despite being Iran's epicentre of the outbreak, Qom has yet to be quarantined.

Health minister Saeed Namaki defended the decision on Tuesday and said that quarantine is an "old method".

"We still do not agree with quarantining cities since we believe the people are cultured enough to refrain from travelling from infected cities to other places," semi-official news agency ISNA quoted him as saying.

[CumbrianLefty]

So apparently there are people sick in Qom, raising the chances that the mullahs are apart of the sick.

Iran's deputy health minister says he has coronavirus

Despite being Iran's epicentre of the outbreak, Qom has yet to be quarantined.

Health minister Saeed Namaki defended the decision on Tuesday and said that quarantine is an "old method".

"We still do not agree with quarantining cities since we believe the people are cultured enough to refrain from travelling from infected cities to other places," semi-official news agency ISNA quoted him as saying.

Well, that sounds promising......

[Middle-aged Europe]

Silly hysteria IMO.

The lethal rate is only 2% of those infected and the vast majority is old people above 80 ...

2% means it is something like 20 times more lethal than the flu.  2% of a lot of people is a lot of people.

Also a significant number of those infected require medical attention, often for a long period of time, perhaps something like 10%.  No country in the world has the capacity to treat that many people effectively, let alone in addition to non-coronavirus related illnesses.

Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch estimates that 40% to 70% of the world's population could get infected by the Coronavirus within a year. At a population of 7.7 billion people and a fatality rate of 2% this would mean a death toll of 60 to 110 million people worldwide.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

In raw numbers this would be about in the range of the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, although back then there were of course fewer people living on the planet overall (a little under two billion) which would make the Coronavirus actually less severe than the Spanish flu.

[parochial boy]

Silly hysteria IMO.

The lethal rate is only 2% of those infected and the vast majority is old people above 80 ...

2% means it is something like 20 times more lethal than the flu.  2% of a lot of people is a lot of people.

Also a significant number of those infected require medical attention, often for a long period of time, perhaps something like 10%.  No country in the world has the capacity to treat that many people effectively, let alone in addition to non-coronavirus related illnesses.

Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch estimates that 40% to 70% of the world's population could get infected by the Coronavirus within a year. At a population of 7.7 billion people and a fatality rate of 2% this would mean a death toll of 60 to 110 million people worldwide.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

In raw numbers this would be about in the range of the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, although back then there were of course fewer people living on the planet overall (a little under two billion) which would make the Coronavirus actually less severe than the Spanish flu.

Although the flip side is a large number of unreported cases almost certainly means the death rate is significantly lower than that 2-3%.

And, alternatively, a more reassuring picture from a WHO epidemiologist who reckons that the mortality rate is more like 0.5-1% taking unreported cases into account and that a major pandemic is unlikely considering that China has already shown that it is possible to get it it under control.

[Sir Mohamed]

Here is a global live map

[Middle-aged Europe]

Italy: 378 infections, 12 fatalities

It seems to be stabilizing a bit there. The numbers are still growing but not at the same rate than in the previous days.

[Tintrlvr]

Italy: 378 infections, 12 fatalities

It seems to be stabilizing a bit there. The numbers are still growing but not at the same rate than in the previous days.

I think Italy just has undetected cases. Currently South Korea and Italy have the same number of deaths, but there are 3x the number of reported cases in South Korea as in Italy. Almost certainly there are at least 1,000 cases in Italy when including minor/asymptomatic cases or people who simply have not been tested. South Korea is doing an excellent job of testing everyone, but other countries (Italy, Iran, Japan, etc.) are not.