International COVID-19 Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Hesse, and Schleswig-Holstein become the first German states to discontinue mandatory isolation for infected people.

Some are criticizing the decision of the BW/BY/HE/SH bloc. Others are urging some form of national consensus on the issue now in order to avoid Kleinstaaterei. In the latter case it would at least mean that the four states have effectively eroded mandatory isolation on the national level in some form on their own.

Health minister Karl Lauterbach's position doesn't really make much sense IMO, since he's on the side of the BW/BY/HE/SH critics here. I recall that more than half a year ago he tried to end mandatory isolation himself, only to quickly walk back on it after facing much flak for the proposal. I can't really see how the COVID situation is more dire now than it was back then. Quite the opposite really. That's just inconsistent and arbitrary.

[Frodo]

It looks like we are on track for the World Health Organization to officially declare an end to the COVID pandemic as early as next spring:

WHO reports 90% drop in world COVID-19 deaths since February

[Middle-aged Europe]

Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Hesse, and Schleswig-Holstein become the first German states to discontinue mandatory isolation for infected people.

Schleswig-Holstein is also planning to end mask mandates for public transportation now, becoming the first German state to do so. The dominos are falling.

Curious how the final remaning COVID measures in Germany will gradually erode and fade away at the state level, after everybody spend nearly three years of stressing how important a national consensus on the restrictions is.

On the other hand, the federal level doesn't really seem to do anything outside of "stay the course" because otherwise bad things could happen or something.

[SnowLabrador]

It looks like we are on track for the World Health Organization to officially declare an end to the COVID pandemic as early as next spring:

WHO reports 90% drop in world COVID-19 deaths since February

Honestly, I don't see the need for WHO to declare the pandemic over. Name one country other than China that doesn't act like it's over already.

[Frodo]

China may have ‘passed the point of no return’ as Covid infections soar

Surging Covid infections across mainland China make it harder for the government to achieve zero-Covid without reverting to a harsh lockdown, Macquarie’s Chief China Economist Larry Hu said.

In the last few days, the daily case count has climbed to around or more 28,000 — near levels seen in April during a stringent lockdown in Shanghai, according to CNBC calculations of Wind Information data. The figures showed the last time mainland China saw only a handful of daily infections was in June, shortly after Shanghai eased its restrictions.

The latest Covid wave has hit the southern city of Guangzhou, the capital city of Beijing and many central parts of China — prompting local officials to tighten restrictions on business and social activity this month.

“China might have already passed the point of no return, as it’s unlikely to achieve zero Covid again without another Shanghai-style hard lockdown,” Hu said in a report Tuesday. “What policymakers could do now is to slow the spread of virus, i.e. flatten the curve, by tightening the Covid controls for the time being.”

[CumbrianLefty]

What's the betting they just double down on Zero Covid, yet again?

[2952-0-0]

What's the betting they just double down on Zero Covid, yet again?

They've flipped to iron-fisted lockdowns to let-it-rip. We'll see how many millions will (actually, outside official numbers) die in the next few months.

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/china-covid-update-12142022134038.html

[CumbrianLefty]

So it looks very like the recent unrest has rattled them.

[Torie]

What I don't understand is why China's top priority was to avoid using the far more effective Pfizer and Moderna vaccines in the West. The Draconian lockdown policy was driven in major part by the lack of effective vaccines being available. I bet Xi got a Pfizer/Moderna jab behind closed doors however.

[2952-0-0]

What I don't understand is why China's top priority was to avoid using the far more effective Pfizer and Moderna vaccines in the West. The Draconian lockdown policy was driven in major part by the lack of effective vaccines being available. I bet Xi got a Pfizer/Moderna jab behind closed doors however.

Actually importing mRNA vaccines would have been an admission of failure in Xi's goal of making China a self-sufficient world leader in technology, just when it was most needed.

In reality, studies in countries where both Chinese-made vaccines and mRNA vaccines were used indicate that Chinese-made vaccines are effective against the Omicron strain, but three shots of these are required to provide equivalent protection as two shots of the mRNA vaccines. So, not importing mRNA vaccines isn't the biggest failure.

The biggest failure was a lack of urgency around vaccines. A police state is certainly capable of coercing vaccinations, but that was never done. It was only after Beijing announced the (de facto) end of the lockdowns did it then direct local authorities to prioritize vaccinating high-risk people. But it's already far too late to prevent a wave of mass deaths.

It was, indeed, an open secret that Party elites were being offered the Pfizer vaccine. I've heard that now they're available to the public in Beijing, but at a price of several hundred dollars. I wonder how hard the Party apparatchik grifting on that, kissed Xi's ass to get that job, however.

[Torie]

What I don't understand is why China's top priority was to avoid using the far more effective Pfizer and Moderna vaccines in the West. The Draconian lockdown policy was driven in major part by the lack of effective vaccines being available. I bet Xi got a Pfizer/Moderna jab behind closed doors however.

Actually importing mRNA vaccines would have been an admission of failure in Xi's goal of making China a self-sufficient world leader in technology, just when it was most needed.

In reality, studies in countries where both Chinese-made vaccines and mRNA vaccines were used indicate that Chinese-made vaccines are effective against the Omicron strain, but three shots of these are required to provide equivalent protection as two shots of the mRNA vaccines. So, not importing mRNA vaccines isn't the biggest failure.

The biggest failure was a lack of urgency around vaccines. A police state is certainly capable of coercing vaccinations, but that was never done. It was only after Beijing announced the (de facto) end of the lockdowns did it then direct local authorities to prioritize vaccinating high-risk people. But it's already far too late to prevent a wave of mass deaths.

It was, indeed, an open secret that Party elites were being offered the Pfizer vaccine. I've heard that now they're available to the public in Beijing, but at a price of several hundred dollars. I wonder how hard the Party apparatchik grifting on that, kissed Xi's ass to get that job, however.

Thanks for the reply. Just why the authorities thought mass lockdowns would be less expensive to the economy than paying to get everyone vaccinnated, even if three doses, escapes me, if not based on some twisted political narrative or paranoia.

You say effective against omicron, but how about the delta and earlier variants that we contended with for close to two years that were more lethal. This saga has been going on for along time.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its pretty simple IMO - the Chinese leadership bought into the myth that their earlier Zero Covid had been a terrific success, and proof of their political acumen and virility. Vaccines were for the "weak".

You do wonder how those still peddling ZC in the West will spin all this.

[2952-0-0]

Crematoriums in Beijing are working 24 hours a day. One crematorium normally receives 30-40 bodies per day, but recently has been receiving 200 per day. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the daily death toll in Beijing is about 1400, and we're not at the peak yet.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-crematoriums-death-surge-points-to-rising-covid-toll-in-china-11671219181

CAVEAT: the crematorium in question is one of several that's designated to handle you-know-what patients, so it's not necessarily representative of all of Beijing's crematoriums. But, the virus is spreading so quickly that it's certain that many people died without testing positive for you-know-what, so the death toll might be in the "mere" hundreds per day. That would still far exceed the death toll faced by New York and London in the dark days of Spring 2020.

[Frodo]

This is most certainly an underestimate -I think much more than a million will perish from COVID in China before it finally settles down there, given the huge virgin population, and how closely packed and urbanized they have become:

One Million Could Die From COVID in China, New Study Shows. Here’s What to Know

Roughly a million people could die from COVID-19 in China by next year as a result of the country’s rapid abandonment of pandemic restrictions, a new study suggests.

Researchers worry that ill-prepared healthcare systems, low rates of vaccination among the elderly and ineffective vaccines will contribute to a massive and deadly COVID-19 surge that has already begun overwhelming hospitals in Beijing.

The country of 1.4 billion has had some of the strictest COVID containment measures in place since the pandemic began nearly three years ago, but the government began easing restrictions this month after a wave of fervent protests that began in November against President Xi Jinping’s zero-COVID policies.

Here’s what to know:

[Silent Hunter]

That would still be better than the United States per capita, mind.

[CumbrianLefty]

Indeed, but most of the US deaths from Covid were some time ago.

This still happening *now* is not good.

[2952-0-0]

This is most certainly an underestimate -I think much more than a million will perish from COVID in China before it finally settles down there, given the huge virgin population, and how closely packed and urbanized they have become:

I don't think population density and urbanization has much, of any, factor on death toll. The rich East Asian countries are famous for their packed megacities, yet suffered the lowest excess mortality rates in the world. On the other hand, the parts of the US that have suffered the highest death tolls are sparsely-populated rural counties.

That would still be better than the United States per capita, mind.

Realistically, I think any excess mortality of less than 3 million would be a miracle at this stage.

The wealthy, democratic East Asian countries did everything right, both the government and the people. They took the virus seriously from the beginning. They kept infections to a minimum, but never imposed any broad-based lockdowns. These countries also have the best public health care systems in the world, and the highest per capital hospital and ICU capacity. A culture of mask-wearing during the flu season already existed. The best vaccines were imported, and vaccination rates were among the highest in the world. And still, they suffered an excess mortality rate of about 1 per 1000.

China falls well short of most of these factors, so to expect a comparable excess mortality rate (scaled up, at 1.4 million) is a complete fantasy.

An excess mortality rate of 2 per 1000 would put it on the level of France, or more comparable Thailand. Yet, even Thailand has a much more comprehensive public health care system than China, and didn't experience one single giant wave as China is seeing right now. Such an excess mortality rate would translate to 2.8 million excess deaths in China, which is within spitting distance of my 3 million benchmark. It would still be a miracle given what's unfolding in China at the moment.

An excess mortality rate of 3 per 1000 would be comparable to the UK, whose government leaders didn't even personally care about controlling infections. Adjusted to China, that would mean approximately 4 million excess deaths. China does enjoy a very high vaccination rate, even if the vaccines aren't so effective. It's just possible that grim benchmark can be avoided.

In short, logic tells me that we should expect maybe 3 to 4 million excess deaths. That's not particularly high by global standards, and they will definitely publish official numbers that insult the intelligence of even the dumbest idiots. But, it will be a huge blow to the Party's propaganda talking point that "we enjoy the world's lowest death toll thanks to the Party's glorious leadership".

[SnowLabrador]

China is going to suffer greatly in the next few months, but it's not because of their higher population density. I don't envy them at all. What a tragedy.

[Frodo]

Chinese leaders are apparently too proud to accept vaccines from the West, even when offered:

US Prepared to Help China With Vaccines to Control Covid

[Frodo]

Leaked notes from Chinese health officials estimate 250 million Covid-19 infections in December: reports

[Frodo]

US to Require Negative Covid Tests for Travelers From China

The Biden administration announced on Wednesday that travelers from China, Hong Kong and Macau must present negative Covid-19 tests before entering the United States, a move that it says is intended to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The requirement will take effect on Jan. 5.

The announcement, by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, came amid growing concern over a surge of cases in China and the country’s lack of transparency about the outbreak there.

C.D.C. officials said the requirement for testing will apply to air passengers regardless of their nationality and vaccination status. It will also apply to travelers coming from China who enter the United States through a third country, and to those who connect through the United States to other destinations. Italy and Japan have already imposed similar restrictions.

[Pericles]

US to Require Negative Covid Tests for Travelers From China

The Biden administration announced on Wednesday that travelers from China, Hong Kong and Macau must present negative Covid-19 tests before entering the United States, a move that it says is intended to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The requirement will take effect on Jan. 5.

The announcement, by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, came amid growing concern over a surge of cases in China and the country’s lack of transparency about the outbreak there.

C.D.C. officials said the requirement for testing will apply to air passengers regardless of their nationality and vaccination status. It will also apply to travelers coming from China who enter the United States through a third country, and to those who connect through the United States to other destinations. Italy and Japan have already imposed similar restrictions.

After the experience with recent variants, it's hard to deny that this is public health theatre. If a new variant does emerge it will spread incredibly fast and sweep the world in weeks. So ideally people with Covid shouldn't be boarding planes, but the effect is marginal between reducing the spread and just increasing the burden on travellers with this measure. Border controls can work but they need to be incredibly strict and the US never implemented measures like that in the pandemic. And they came with such a huge cost that unless the variant is insanely dangerous, we just need to live with whatever Covid throws at us.

[CumbrianLefty]

The latter point is surely the most fundamental.

Over time, Covid variants have *tended* to become less serious for *most* people.

As was widely predicted at the start, and is consistent with many previous epidemic episodes.

[Middle-aged Europe]

On December 26, Germany's top virologist Christian Drosten (Teutonic Fauci) has declared the pandemic over, with the country now having entered the endemic phase. This sparked a political debate on whether to end the remaining COVID restrictions, most notably mask mandates in public transportation - like most neighbouring European countries did a couple of months ago.

However, some say: Not Yet.
Mostly because of the ongoing flu and RSV epidemics.

Well, except in Bavaria, Saxony-Anhalt, and Schleswig-Holstein where these mask mandates have been lifted already (well, except in long-distance train traffic of the German Railroad because the mandates are subject to federal law there).

Case in point: Over the holidays I have been to Halle (which is in Saxony-Anhalt) and Leipzig (which is in neighbouring Saxony).  In Halle there is no mask mandate in the tram, while in Leipzig there is one. If you travel from Halle to Leipzig with a long-distance Inter-City train of the German Railroad you have to wear a mask on the entire duration of the trip. If you take a regional train - which is not subject to federal law - on the way back mask mandates technically apply from the point of departure at the Leipzig central station until the point where you cross the state border between Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt. From that point forward, until you reach the final destination in Halle, the mask mandate is lifted in the train.

[Middle-aged Europe]

On December 26, Germany's top virologist Christian Drosten (Teutonic Fauci) has declared the pandemic over, with the country now having entered the endemic phase. This sparked a political debate on whether to end the remaining COVID restrictions, most notably mask mandates in public transportation - like most neighbouring European countries did a couple of months ago.

However, some say: Not Yet.
Mostly because of the ongoing flu and RSV epidemics.

Well, except in Bavaria, Saxony-Anhalt, and Schleswig-Holstein where these mask mandates have been lifted already (well, except in long-distance train traffic of the German Railroad because the mandates are subject to federal law there).

Case in point: Over the holidays I have been to Halle (which is in Saxony-Anhalt) and Leipzig (which is in neighbouring Saxony).  In Halle there is no mask mandate in the tram, while in Leipzig there is one. If you travel from Halle to Leipzig with a long-distance Inter-City train of the German Railroad you have to wear a mask on the entire duration of the trip. If you take a regional train - which is not subject to federal law - on the way back mask mandates technically apply from the point of departure at the Leipzig central station until the point where you cross the state border between Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt. From that point forward, until you reach the final destination in Halle, the mask mandate is lifted in the train.

The states of Berlin and Brandenburg have decided to end mask mandates in public transportation on February 2.

The Berlin state government had always underlined its desire to find a national end date, but since this doesn't seem to be possible they made a deal with neigbouring Brandenburg only.