International COVID-19 Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

A week into the end of mask mandates in Germany, mask-wearing in supermarkets and shopping malls in Berlin seems to have dropped to what appears to be an almost 50/50 split. Funny thing, separate polling numbers relased yesterday and the day before yesterday indicated that 77% (Infratest dimap) or 81% (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen) would continue wearing masks indoors voluntarily even after the end of mandates. They took the pollsters' phone calls and then they flat-out lied to them.

[ElectionsGuy]

https://twitter.com/patrickmadrid/status/1512600420610363394

In China, people are starving with no food, and screaming out their windows because they are helpless and can't leave their homes.

This is what a "real lockdown" looks like.

[It’s so Joever]

Between Putin’s ridiculous invasion, and the CCP push to continue a strategy that clearly isn’t viable, it’s clear these leaders were never as rational as I assumed.

[It’s so Joever]

Oh and there is no turning back for Xi, the grave has already been dug. China itself may be near a long period of severe chaos and maybe even collapse at this point. I’m serious, even if all lockdowns end tomorrow in China…after so much messaging in support of them there will be a lot of confusion and mistrust to an extent that will destroy whatever legitimacy the government had. At best it will be a Watergate type thing where the entire perception changes, at worst it could literally mean regime change. And if they continue…I don’t need to spell it out.

[Pericles]

Oh and there is no turning back for Xi, the grave has already been dug. China itself may be near a long period of severe chaos and maybe even collapse at this point. I’m serious, even if all lockdowns end tomorrow in China…after so much messaging in support of them there will be a lot of confusion and mistrust to an extent that will destroy whatever legitimacy the government had. At best it will be a Watergate type thing where the entire perception changes, at worst it could literally mean regime change. And if they continue…I don’t need to spell it out.

It seems pretty easy to change Covid policy compared to other normal political issue. Just say the science has changed. You can never be wrong, it is always a subjective question about whether how much difference it makes.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yeah, China apparently went nuts. A prime example why authoritarian systems are generally too unflexible too change.

[urutzizu]

A major issue in China is also just the incoherence of the response. On the one hand you have this extreme lockdown in Shanghai, Guangzhou likely following suit in a few days over 27 new cases. On the other hand you have in Jilin (aside from Shanghai the other major outbreak) essentially abandoning, with easings now taking place. They are saying Jilin has "achieved dynamic (?) zero covid", despite almost 1000 new cases per day (counting asymptomatic). You have people like Sun Chunlan (Vice Premier) visiting Shanghai and saying "Lockdown has to continue and even get harsher (?) in certain areas" while at the same time local authorities are easing (admittedly only slightly). China is politically extremely centralized, administratively not so much.

In terms of what is happening in Shanghai forcing a shift away from zero covid (the strategy, not "zero covid" itself which will never be achieved), I wouldn't bet on it anytime soon. If anything what happened in Shanghai, will do the opposite. Shanghai was actually, initially, a test for shifting to a new strategy. Because zero covid was so costly in places like Xian, in Shanghai (which for Chinese standards even when it had cases always had a relatively "liberal" covid policy) local authorities were allowed to try a new strategy which only locked down certain neighborhoods. Of course, as we know now, this didn't work and later the whole city was locked down. Whereas at the same time with similar circumstances in Shenzhen a full lockdown was implemented almost immediately, the outbreak was contained and the city opened up. Which is why they seem to be about to do the same in Guangzhou. This reading is in theory correct (FTR I oppose zero covid), but in practice long-term unsustainable.

I don't think however that major unrest or "collapse" is likely. It is important to keep in mind that 95% of China is not in a insane Shanghai-style lockdown (discounting Jilin, counting Guangzhou whichever way you want). Under annoying restrictions in many cases, yes, like restrictions of internal travel in China and arbitrary mass-testing, but not actual lockdown.

[Pericles]

That incoherence has nothing to do with different vaccination rates, right? I could see it being justified if they said areas below a certain target were the only ones where they still had to use lockdowns, but it looks like they're just going nuts.

[Middle-aged Europe]

A week into the end of mask mandates in Germany, mask-wearing in supermarkets and shopping malls in Berlin seems to have dropped to what appears to be an almost 50/50 split. Funny thing, separate polling numbers relased yesterday and the day before yesterday indicated that 77% (Infratest dimap) or 81% (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen) would continue wearing masks indoors voluntarily even after the end of mandates. They took the pollsters' phone calls and then they flat-out lied to them.

According to a new poll, 58% now say that they're still wearing masks in shops and so on. That seems from my observation far more accurate than the original 80% who said that they're gonna do that after the end of mask mandates in Germany.

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/schutz-vor-coronavirus-mehrheit-traegt-weiter-freiwillig-masken-in-innenraeumen/28256466.html

[Lurker]

A week into the end of mask mandates in Germany, mask-wearing in supermarkets and shopping malls in Berlin seems to have dropped to what appears to be an almost 50/50 split. Funny thing, separate polling numbers relased yesterday and the day before yesterday indicated that 77% (Infratest dimap) or 81% (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen) would continue wearing masks indoors voluntarily even after the end of mandates. They took the pollsters' phone calls and then they flat-out lied to them.

According to a new poll, 58% now say that they're still wearing masks in shops and so on. That seems from my observation far more accurate than the original 80% who said that they're gonna do that after the end of mask mandates in Germany.

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/schutz-vor-coronavirus-mehrheit-traegt-weiter-freiwillig-masken-in-innenraeumen/28256466.html

Is the government still strongly recommending people to wear them, despite the mandates being gone? Just wondering, as 58% is still a very high number compared to here in Norway - I'd say close to 90% stopped wearing them within a week after the removal of the restrictions. (These days it's very rare to see anyone with masks.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

A week into the end of mask mandates in Germany, mask-wearing in supermarkets and shopping malls in Berlin seems to have dropped to what appears to be an almost 50/50 split. Funny thing, separate polling numbers relased yesterday and the day before yesterday indicated that 77% (Infratest dimap) or 81% (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen) would continue wearing masks indoors voluntarily even after the end of mandates. They took the pollsters' phone calls and then they flat-out lied to them.

According to a new poll, 58% now say that they're still wearing masks in shops and so on. That seems from my observation far more accurate than the original 80% who said that they're gonna do that after the end of mask mandates in Germany.

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/schutz-vor-coronavirus-mehrheit-traegt-weiter-freiwillig-masken-in-innenraeumen/28256466.html

Is the government still strongly recommending people to wear them, despite the mandates being gone? Just wondering, as 58% is still a very high number compared to here in Norway - I'd say close to 90% stopped wearing them within a week after the removal of the restrictions. (These days it's very rare to see anyone with masks.)

Of course the government does recommend and urge it. That being said, opinion polls showed that a majority of the population actually opposed ending the mask mandates, so it was kind of forced upon them by the government (or rather by the parties' inability to find a compromise on the matter). I guess the same majority who opposed ending the mandate is now continuing to wear the masks. It was always true that Germans have a high "cultural" affinity for complying with COVID measures, a year ago or so I even saw an article on that explaining why this results in COVID measures tending to be unsually effective here.

Now for the real important question: What do I do? I think consciously or subconsciously I'm a bit of herd animal, so I do what I think what most people around me do, having the result that I sometimes wear a mask and sometimes not. I do the have impression though that in particularly cosy and crowded supermarkets during rush hours more people tend to wear a mask, so it kind of makes sense. Personally I'm boostered and recently recovered from the infection though, so it's more what I think is expected of me.

[Frodo]

Drive to Vaccinate the World Against COVID Is Losing Steam

[CumbrianLefty]

Drive to Vaccinate the World Against COVID Is Losing Steam

That article mentions that the US is still only 66% vaccinated, which is pathetic really.

[urutzizu]

Shanghai update: So, Shanghai has apparently "achieved social zero covid". It seems zero zero and dynamic zero didn't quite cut it, so social zero means that on Friday there were no new infections (symptomatic or asymptomatic) outside quarantine areas (on Thursday that number was still 108 and around 200 for the rest of the week). There are still some 16,000 quarantine areas in Shanghai with 4 Million people banned from leaving home. Overall, there were in "social zero" Shanghai 10,181 new infections yesterday, but according to official data every single one if these is in quarantine. Seems like Shanghai, at least parts of it, will open up now (so far even for people in non-quarantine areas movement has been very restricted).

Smaller outbreaks in other cities such as Beijing or Guangzhou are not (yet) being dealt with full Shanghai-style lockdown, but still with quite severe restrictions. Practically, many businesses are closed/working remotely many streets are empty, and a full lockdown looks possible. A change in this looks totally impossible, as vaccination of elderly groups has taken even less priority. For instance in Shanghai most vaccinations are closed, and overall while it is still urged officially, it is de facto not really psychologically communicated as so important anymore as opposed to mass testing and quarantine, and sometimes even things like Lianhua Qingwen (traditional Chinese medicine). It seems that for the Chinese authorities, the risk of political backlash from forcing vaccinations and potential side effects is viewed as much more risky than the risks from zero-Covid, and if that's true, that is a massive problem.

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/alexleff/status/1522255926274711552

[Mike88]

Portugal is now the worst European country in terms of daily new cases, and PM Costa is already saying that if necessary, the government could bring back some health protection measures.

The Prime Minister said that the government is following the current trend of daily cases and will act in conformity. Costa pressed that the pandemic isn't over and everyone should be cautions, adding he still uses mask and disinfectant gel.

In the last 24 hours, 24,538 new cases were reported. New deaths, however, remain stable with 26 deaths.

[NewYorkExpress]

After over almost three years, North Korea has finally confirmed cases of COVID-19.

North Korea has declared a “severe national emergency” after confirming its first outbreak of Covid-19, prompting its leader, Kim Jong-un, to vow to quickly eliminate the virus.

State media reported on Thursday that a sub-variant of the highly transmissible Omicron virus, known as BA.2, had been detected in the capital, Pyongyang.

“There has been the biggest emergency incident in the country, with a hole in our emergency quarantine front, that has been kept safely over the past two years and three months since February 2020,” the official KCNA news agency said.

The report said people in Pyongyang had contracted the Omicron variant, without providing details on case numbers or possible sources of infection.

North Korea had claimed it had not recorded a single case of Covid-19 since it closed its borders at the start of the pandemic more than two years ago.

The discovery of the Omicron variant presents a potentially serious risk to North Korea, which has not vaccinated any of its 25 million people, according to experts, and its poorly resourced healthcare system would also struggle to cope with a major outbreak.

[Logical]

Must be real bad if they're forced to admit this.
https://twitter.com/YonhapNews/status/1524859981199441921

Wnet from 30k to 300k in less than a day
https://twitter.com/medriva/status/1524938073682980864

[CumbrianLefty]

Well that is interesting. Speculation that the boy Kim himself got it, isn't there?

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/mbvukutaphiri/status/1525848685162029056

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/mbvukutaphiri/status/1525848685162029056

Never *too* late, surely. Though it may still be too little.

[Frodo]

The University of Washington came up with a new COVID vaccine that is better suited for the developing world, not unlike the one already developed by European drug makers:

University of Washington creates new COVID-19 vaccine

Unlike the earliest approved vaccines for COVID-19 that make use of mRNA, viral vectors, or an inactivated virus, GPB510 is made of proteins that form tiny particles studded with fragments of the pandemic coronavirus. These nanoparticles were designed by scientists at UW Medicine and advanced into clinical trials by SK bioscience and GlaxoSmithKline with financial support from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations.

“The advantage of the nanoparticle vaccine over a traditional protein subunit vaccine is that, by presenting the antigen in this repetitive array, you will elicit a stronger immune response, which should translate to better protection,” said Neil King, assistant professor of biochemistry for the UW School of Medicine, in a news release.

King also stressed that a protein nanoparticle vaccine will be easier to produce and store. It’s effective at low doses and simple to make on a large scale while not requiring deep freezing in order to become stable.

GPB510 will be available through COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access, (COVAX), a worldwide initiative aimed at equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines directed by the GAVI vaccine alliance, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, and the World Health Organization.

[urutzizu]

In Shanghai the number of officially reported cases has been below 200 the last days (compared to ~25000 at the peak) and in Mainland China overall about 300. Beijing is next with around 20 cases, where authorities now also say that the outbreak has been fully controlled, an otherwise there are officially no major outbreaks any more.

Questions:
(1) Can the data be trusted? A: Yes, at least the direction of it can. It is clear from anecdotal evidence that deaths were underreported. However, in general as the strategy is zero covid, than any broad falsifications in cases cannot hold up long term, because if the outbreak is not actually under control, people will on masse, well, get sick that are not officially not supposed sick, see North Korea. This is the reason why despite the widespread distrust after reporting the Wuhan outbreak eliminated, there was no major outbreak again until Shanghai.
(2) What does this mean? A: Zero covid "works", if one implements harsh (Chinese harsh, not western harsh) measures immediately, and at a huge economic cost. For Xi Jinping however this is irrelevant because the political cost of losing control or allowing foreign vaccines is much greater (a poll recently showed only 30% of Chinese people would accept a western vaccine).
(3) What will the future look like? A: Brutal zero covid until at least either 13th NPC early next year or Chinese mrna vaccine. Looking like the former will probably be first anyway. And even after that it is not certain that something will change. Sad situation if you have family in China.

[It’s so Joever]

In Shanghai the number of officially reported cases has been below 200 the last days (compared to ~25000 at the peak) and in Mainland China overall about 300. Beijing is next with around 20 cases, where authorities now also say that the outbreak has been fully controlled, an otherwise there are officially no major outbreaks any more.

Questions:
(1) Can the data be trusted? A: Yes, at least the direction of it can. It is clear from anecdotal evidence that deaths were underreported. However, in general as the strategy is zero covid, than any broad falsifications in cases cannot hold up long term, because if the outbreak is not actually under control, people will on masse, well, get sick that are not officially not supposed sick, see North Korea. This is the reason why despite the widespread distrust after reporting the Wuhan outbreak eliminated, there was no major outbreak again until Shanghai.
(2) What does this mean? A: Zero covid "works", if one implements harsh (Chinese harsh, not western harsh) measures immediately, and at a huge economic cost. For Xi Jinping however this is irrelevant because the political cost of losing control or allowing foreign vaccines is much greater (a poll recently showed only 30% of Chinese people would accept a western vaccine).
(3) What will the future look like? A: Brutal zero covid until at least either 13th NPC early next year or Chinese mrna vaccine. Looking like the former will probably be first anyway. And even after that it is not certain that something will change. Sad situation if you have family in China.

This is a logical take that would make sense in the grand scheme of things. That’s why you are a Chinese puppet.

[Frodo]

Remember the case of the ex-Russian spy being assassinated in 2006 in London?  One of the men who killed him has now died from COVID:

Alexander Litvinenko assassination suspect dies of Covid
Dmitry Kovtun was one of two Russian men accused over poisoning death of ex-spy in London in 2006