International COVID-19 Megathread
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #3250 on: January 01, 2022, 05:39:55 PM »

Article's in German, although it refers to the results of a British study. Bottomline is that the risk of hospitalization with Omicron is only a third of that of Delta.

https://m.tagesspiegel.de/wissen/neue-omikron-daten-hospitalisierung-sinkt-deutlich-variante-greift-lunge-seltener-an/27938452.html

All hail to our new Omicronian overlords.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #3251 on: January 06, 2022, 11:29:38 AM »

Article's in German, although it refers to the results of a British study. Bottomline is that the risk of hospitalization with Omicron is only a third of that of Delta.

https://m.tagesspiegel.de/wissen/neue-omikron-daten-hospitalisierung-sinkt-deutlich-variante-greift-lunge-seltener-an/27938452.html

All hail to our new Omicronian overlords.

Well, at least in the short term it does not really matter much that Omicron is 1/3 as severe if it is 3 times as contagious; in the end you end up with the same amount of hospital saturation. Indeed hospitalizations here are already at levels beyond the summer waves, and unless cases end up going down, we will probably be back at the levels of the worst moments of the pandemic, despite vaccinations, exclusively because omicron is ridiculously contagious.

Of course natural immunity probably means that this could be the last wave (or alternatively that future covid waves are even less severe) but this wave looks like it will be just as bad as the ones in winter despite vaccinations since pretty much everyone will catch covid.

Only option for this to not be the case is if somehow ICU usage (or eventually, deaths) do not pick up despite hospitalizations going up. Which could certainly be a possibility, but is far from guaranteed?

And hell even in that "best case scenario", countries should get ready to dramatically ramp up healthcare spending for at least the remainder of the 2020s, unless they want to see hospitals collapsed every year.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #3252 on: January 07, 2022, 04:13:36 AM »
« Edited: January 07, 2022, 07:07:10 AM by Middle-aged Europe »

According to a new Infratest poll, public opinion in Germany is... inconclusive.


Opinion of the existing COVID restrictions (in brackets comparison to last polling numbers from early December)

Are going too far: 25% (+8)
Are appropriate: 42% (+22)
Are going not far enough: 31% (-29)


How big are your concerns...

that another lockdown happens?
Very big/Big 59%
Less big/small 39%

regarding new virus variants like Omicron?
Very big/Big 51%
Less big/small 46%

that not every patient is receiving the appropriate medical treatment?
Very big/Big 50%
Less big/small 46%

that you personally get infected with COVID?
Very big/Big 30%
Less big/small 68%


Opinion on a prospective shortening of quarantine rules

For the Infected
Support 67%
Oppose 27%

For contact persons
Support 67%
Oppose 27%


Similarly inconclusive seems to be the approach chosen by the political elite which primarily consists of upholding the current legal requirements. Today, a new meeting of the Conference of Minister-Presidents on COVID is scheduled. Despite calls from federal health minister Karl Lauterbach to tighten contact restrictions, no such things are apparently planned at this point. There will a change in the rules regarding restaurants visits insofar that you will either need to be vaccinated/recovered and tested or, in order to forego the test, boostered (currently you only need to be vaccinated/recovered with no tests or booster shots required). In return, it is planned to loosen or shorten the existing quarantine rules for boostered people and for whose working in the "critical infrastructure".
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Blue3
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« Reply #3253 on: January 07, 2022, 06:31:06 PM »
« Edited: January 07, 2022, 06:37:02 PM by Blue3 »

Thankfully my site/branch of our nonprofit has decided to stay virtual at least a little longer. 5-10% of us have gotten COVID and probably more since half haven’t gotten tested yet (we mandated it upon coming back but there’s a long delay/shortage), and most of our AmeriCorps members are roommates with those on other teams. And we’ve had a vaccine mandate. Most boosted too.

One of our middle school partners has over 40 confirmed positive cases. And most elementary classes have only 3 to 6 students per classroom and 20 teachers out.

In very depressing news:
India just learned it undercounted and found 3 million of its citizens they thought were alive are dead. 600% more deaths than previously believed.
Covid death toll in India likely far higher than official record, research says
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/covid-death-toll-india-likely-far-higher-official-record-research-says-rcna11357
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #3254 on: January 08, 2022, 07:54:03 PM »

Some anecdotal description of the German situation, particularly in Berlin:

Berlin's seven-day incidence is close to 700 now, making it the German state with second-highest infection rate after Bremen. We'll probably gonna enter the four digit range for the first time since the start of the pandemic soon.

For the past one and a half years or so we now had our Corona warning apps on our smartphones where you are warned of "low risk" (green warning) and "high risk" (red warning) contacts with infected people who had also the app installed. For a very long time it was rather normal to have a "low risk" contact once every couple of weeks, or in case of the summer even months. Almost two months ago the fourth wave started, quickly followed by fifth, this time Omicron-instigated, one.

By now, I know almost no one who has the warning app installed and who hasn't a red warning status on it. A lot of people still try to do a PCR test when that happens, even when it said that the testing infrastructure is close to collapse now (I just read a report that here in Berlin you have to wait four hours in a line in some cases) and at least the boostered have been exempted from any quarantine mandates if they become "contact persons".

I admit part of it is maybe simple convenience, but also due to the reasons stated above I haven't tried to get a PCR test myself yet, figuring that the unvaccinated, the non-boostered, people who are having symptoms, and people who have a positive antigen test result may need that PCR more than me. Be it as it may, my own Corona warning app shows three high-risk contacts on December 30, on December 31, and on January 1, as well as two low-risk contacts on January 2, and on January 4. In some of these cases I don't even have the slightest idea who my contacts could have been, perhaps it happened while being in the subway.

I'm trying to rely on my own rapid test kit here at home, which I'm now using daily and which is at least from a manufacturer who has gotten a rather high efficacy rating for its tests. An infection may still slip through, but I've got no symptoms and like I said, boostered people are exempted from quarantines anyway. The way things are going we'll probably all have have Omicron soon anyway and then we'll hopefully become endemic.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #3255 on: January 09, 2022, 09:21:38 AM »

Somewhat on an optimistic note here, Zürich's health minister Natalie Rickli said in an interview yesterday that once the Omicron wave has peaked it would be a signal of the pandemic moving into endemic phase, with all that entails in terms of returning to normal life. The first time that any senior politician has gone as far as postulating this as the eventual outcome.

She is SVP, but has been a big hardliner on restrictions and vaccines over the last year or so, to the point of alienating much of her own party, as being health minister put her into direct contact with what the situation in hospitals has been.

Which raises a question in its own right - once the world accepts that the virus is endemic, how to the zero covid countries like China react? Either they accept that they will have to allow the virus in, or they keep their borders and big movement restriction on their populations... forever? I think even the Chinese will cotton on to the consequences this would have on their own plans for world supremacy eventually.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #3256 on: January 09, 2022, 10:43:28 AM »

Does any country save China even pay lip service to Zero Covid now?
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #3257 on: January 09, 2022, 05:33:30 PM »

Does any country save China even pay lip service to Zero Covid now?

German health minister Karl Lauterbach seems a bit unhappy with the level of COVID restrictions instituted by his own government, but he's apparently overruled by Scholz, the FDP, and a couple of state governments. Frankly, his new "I'm worried about the unvaccinated when Omicron hits" shtick is getting a bit on my nerves too. Unvaccinated people have the option to get themselves vaccinated and maybe there should be more beds in  ICUs reserved for those few who can't get vaccinated due to medical issues.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #3258 on: January 09, 2022, 05:54:14 PM »

Does any country save China even pay lip service to Zero Covid now?

Western Australia is essentially zero-Covid.

Some Pacific islands survived 1918 with no Spanish Flu.

Luckily we lasted long enough for a new 'low mortality rate' variant to emerge on the scene.

The positive news about Omicron is it may make the more lethal versions extinct.
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Aurelius
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« Reply #3259 on: January 10, 2022, 05:53:18 AM »

Omicron has been detected in Tianjin, China. 20 cases have been found, two of which were sequenced as Omicron. Every resident of the city is now being tested.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/09/child-covid-testing-winter-olympics-526810

Will be interesting to see whether China's Zero Covid strategy survives omicron. If anyone can pull it off it's China, but I suspect it's just too virulent and they'll have to adjust, just as Australia did after Delta got into the country.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #3260 on: January 10, 2022, 07:10:47 AM »

Meanwhile, the general vaccination mandate debate in Germany has slowed waaaayyyy down. Some criticize Scholz for it, seeing it as an early sign that he's a weak and ineffective leader who can't deliver.

An alternative intepretation could be that the vaccination mandate has become less of a priority ever since Scholz and the FDP decided to just muddle through the Omicron wave without any lockdown. The vaccination mandate debate had come up in late November and early December when it seemed unclear whether we're aproaching another lockdown like Austria and the Netherlands (and the state of Saxony) recently had. Politically, the mandate was apparently supposed to be a way to sell a "final" (?) lockdown to the vaccinated. Since a lockdown seems to be off the table for now, the vaccination mandate is also being postponed. In addition we recently had a wave of increasingly violent anti-vaxxer protests in Germany which has politicians concerned.

Slowing down the mandate is a gamble that could potentially blow up in the government's face though if hospitalization numbers go to hell after all, especially since the vaccinated are still the majority.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #3261 on: January 10, 2022, 10:58:50 AM »

Meanwhile, the general vaccination mandate debate in Germany has slowed waaaayyyy down. Some criticize Scholz for it, seeing it as an early sign that he's a weak and ineffective leader who can't deliver.

Who is "some" - are the political right actually arguing for more restrictions?
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #3262 on: January 10, 2022, 11:07:33 AM »

Meanwhile, the general vaccination mandate debate in Germany has slowed waaaayyyy down. Some criticize Scholz for it, seeing it as an early sign that he's a weak and ineffective leader who can't deliver.

Who is "some" - are the political right actually arguing for more restrictions?

Mostly the CDU and some media outlets. The latter are not really restricted to a particular political ideology, but are ranging from center-left to center-right.

The CDU as the new main opposition party seems to have identified it as a potential weak spot of the governing coalition and an example that the Traffic light supposedly can't get sh**t done.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #3263 on: January 10, 2022, 07:59:31 PM »

Omicron has been detected in Tianjin, China. 20 cases have been found, two of which were sequenced as Omicron. Every resident of the city is now being tested.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/09/child-covid-testing-winter-olympics-526810

Will be interesting to see whether China's Zero Covid strategy survives omicron. If anyone can pull it off it's China, but I suspect it's just too virulent and they'll have to adjust, just as Australia did after Delta got into the country.
The shift will be interesting. If done right it can be pulled off, but officials will have to be careful after over a year of attacking the West for letting Covid spread. I guess people do have short memories so they probably will be able to pull it off without too much backlash.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #3264 on: January 11, 2022, 03:33:50 PM »

Some good news: BioNtech, Pfitzer's German partner in vaccine development, begun producing an adjusted vaccine for Omicron. First deliveries expected for March.

BioNtech also developed a method for fast detection of new variants:

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Frodo
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« Reply #3265 on: January 15, 2022, 07:01:29 PM »

Is it premature to consider this the 'silver bullet' that will finally bring the COVID pandemic in the developing world under control at last?


Quote
A new Covid-19 vaccine is being developed by Texas scientists using a decades-old conventional method that will make the production and distribution cheaper and more accessible for countries most affected by the pandemic and where new variants are likely to originate due to low inoculation rates.

The team, led by Drs Peter Hotez and Maria Bottazzi from the Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development at Baylor College of Medicine, has been developing vaccine prototypes for Sars and Mers since 2011, which they reconstructed to create the new Covid vaccine, dubbed Corbevax, or “the world’s Covid-19 vaccine”.

Although more than 60 other vaccines are in development using the same technology, Bottazzi said their vaccine is unique because they do not intend to patent it, allowing anyone with the capacity to reproduce it.

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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #3266 on: January 16, 2022, 10:31:51 AM »

Is it premature to consider this the 'silver bullet' that will finally bring the COVID pandemic in the developing world under control at last?


Quote
A new Covid-19 vaccine is being developed by Texas scientists using a decades-old conventional method that will make the production and distribution cheaper and more accessible for countries most affected by the pandemic and where new variants are likely to originate due to low inoculation rates.

The team, led by Drs Peter Hotez and Maria Bottazzi from the Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development at Baylor College of Medicine, has been developing vaccine prototypes for Sars and Mers since 2011, which they reconstructed to create the new Covid vaccine, dubbed Corbevax, or “the world’s Covid-19 vaccine”.

Although more than 60 other vaccines are in development using the same technology, Bottazzi said their vaccine is unique because they do not intend to patent it, allowing anyone with the capacity to reproduce it.



The developing world has plenty of vaccines now, and this one is coming far too late to matter. The issue is not vaccine availability, but rather distribution networks as well as, in some areas, hesitancy.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #3267 on: January 17, 2022, 03:00:26 PM »

Germany is running out of PCR tests, caused by the combination of the fast-spreading Omicron variant and the lack of a lockdown.

The solution discussed today by the health ministers of the states: Access to PCR tests will be severely restricted to selected priority groups. Everybody else will have to make due with the less reliable rapid antigen tests from now on.

I guess it's a sign of the further "normalization" of COVID under Omicron that we will not even test people properly for an infection anymore.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #3268 on: January 17, 2022, 03:26:26 PM »

We already restricted PCR tests here to those with symptoms.

Antigen/lateral flow tests are less reliable at detecting infections, but still very good at detecting if you're infectious. PCR tests can go too far the other way - you can test positive on a PCR for months after your infection because of residual virus traces in your system.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #3269 on: January 18, 2022, 05:29:49 PM »

Hong Kong will execute 2,000 animals after a few hamsters test positive for COVID

https://apnews.com/article/75f2d3507bdb8255cd2aee79e962fc35

When COVID hysteria turns deadly
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #3270 on: January 19, 2022, 02:51:15 PM »

Peru .. the vaccine mandate to enter indoors.. seems to be only enforced on long distance busses or large supermercados.

I'm in Huaraz right now and no one asked me for a vaccine card.. but several asking me if I want to eat rabbit or guneia pig.

In Lima, people are wearing masks outside. Which I find absolutely insane.
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Astatine
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« Reply #3271 on: January 19, 2022, 04:54:46 PM »

After Austria did this step already in the beginning of January, Germany now rated down people who were vaccinated with J&J from the "fully vaccinated" to the "partially vaccinated" status. People who received a second shot with another vaccine after receiving the J&J vaccine now count as "fully vaccinated" instead of "boosted", which means they need another 3rd jab to get back their "boosted" status. Besides, the time period in which a person counts as "recovered" after an infection was reduced from 6 to 3 months.

The J&J downgrade affects about 3 million people: People who are "partially vaccinated" are treated equally to the unvaccinated, although it can be assumed that many who were vaccinated with J&J before have received their booster jab by now. Not qualifying as boosted but fully vaccinated instead means they require a rapid test wherever the "2G+" rules (fully vaccinated/recovered + test or boosted - places such as restaurants etc.) are in place.
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Drew
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« Reply #3272 on: January 19, 2022, 07:50:56 PM »

NBC will have its announcers call the Beijing Olympics remotely from their studio in Connecticut.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/olympics/2022/01/19/winter-olympics-2022-nbc-tv-beijing-covid-19/6585943001/
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #3273 on: January 20, 2022, 02:45:45 PM »

Is it premature to consider this the 'silver bullet' that will finally bring the COVID pandemic in the developing world under control at last?


Quote
A new Covid-19 vaccine is being developed by Texas scientists using a decades-old conventional method that will make the production and distribution cheaper and more accessible for countries most affected by the pandemic and where new variants are likely to originate due to low inoculation rates.

The team, led by Drs Peter Hotez and Maria Bottazzi from the Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development at Baylor College of Medicine, has been developing vaccine prototypes for Sars and Mers since 2011, which they reconstructed to create the new Covid vaccine, dubbed Corbevax, or “the world’s Covid-19 vaccine”.

Although more than 60 other vaccines are in development using the same technology, Bottazzi said their vaccine is unique because they do not intend to patent it, allowing anyone with the capacity to reproduce it.



Also would require an FDA approval.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #3274 on: January 20, 2022, 04:01:54 PM »

Some good old Austria posting:

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