International COVID-19 Megathread

[Silent Hunter]

What were their medical backgrounds?

[MATTROSE94]

What were their medical backgrounds?

About 50% over 50 with comorbidities, 25% less than 50 with comorbidities, 25% no comorbidities and younger than 50.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1441020329862864903

[Mike88]

Portugal update:

Currently, 83.4% of the population is fully vaccinated and it's forecast that by 1 October, that number will reach 85%. Therefore, this afternoon, PM Costa announced that after 1 October many restrictions will be lifted, plus the opening of bars:

- Bars and Night Clubs can reopen, but a digital certificate will be mandatory;
- End of time limits in the operation of businesses;
- Restaurants are freed from having a limit of people in their premise;
- End of the digital certificate in restaurants and hotels;
- No capacity limitations for weddings, christenings, festivals and cultural events;

- Masks for children in playgrounds in schools was also retracted;
- Masks will continue mandatory on public transports, nursing homes, hospitals, mass events and shopping malls;

[Meclazine for Israel]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-24/wa-records-one-new-covid-19-case-no-g2g-pass/100488634

"Western Australia has recorded one new case of COVID-19, a woman from New South Wales who entered WA without an approved G2G pass.

The chief health officer has advised there is no cause for concern, and the woman is now in hotel quarantine.

The woman arrived in Perth on Tuesday, September 21 and was stopped by WA police."

One new case tried to penetrative our controlled border.

But they did not have any paperwork. Tested positive. Some people just don't care about the fact we have zero cases.

[Red Velvet]

LOL

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1441020329862864903

It’s just the way he found to stay in a New York hotel for weeks without working and all being paid by Brazilian taxpayers. Never in history I saw someone so repelled to doing work.

[Sir John Johns]

In Ecuador, President Guillermo Lasso started his term in office on May 24, 2021 with the promise of vaccinating 9 million Ecuadorians in a hundred days (there were then only 1,4 million Ecuadorians vaccinated). Against all expectations, he managed to deliver on his promise with 9.85 million Ecuadorians having received at least one dose on 23 September (ourworldindata.org numbers) with the Ecuadorian government now planning to start vaccination of children over 5 in mid-October.

Such result was obtained in part thanks to Lasso’s diplomatic ‘pragmatism’ (he follows the same policy in trade area, planning to conclude free trade agreements with the European Union, China, the United States, Japan and South Korea) as the Ecuadorian government has negotiated with a wide range of countries to receive vaccines from Pfizer, AstraZeneca, COVAX and the Chinese Sinovac and CanSino; purchases of Sputnik V vaccines have also been concluded with Russia but the vaccines have still to be delivered. It should be also noted that some eighteen months ago Lasso was distributing freely hydroxychloroquine tablets as a way to fight Covid; he has now changed his mind and is supporting more scientific-based treatments.

This is of course contrasting sharply with the situation under Lenín Moreno when Guayaquil was overwhelmed in April 2020 by the number of Covid-related deaths, when the whole health sector was plagued by corruption scandals, when the president was forced to acknowledge that the vaccination plan only existed in the head of the recently dismissed health minister (well, one of the FIVE health ministers who had succeeded each other between March 2020 and May 2021) and when only a few privileged were able to receive a vaccine dose thanks to money or political connections.



According to the numbers of El Pais article from 20 September, Ecuador is ranking fourth among American countries with the highest share of fully vaccinated population with 54.6%, behind Uruguay (73.5%), Chile (73.1%) and Canada (69.8%) but just ahead of the United States (54.2%) and El Salvador (50.2%). As pointed out by the article, regional powers actually score pretty mediocre results with Argentina having 45.2% of its population fully vaccinated, Brazil 38.4%, Mexico 32.8% and Colombia 31.5%. Countries with the worst vaccine coverage are the ones ruled by right-wing quasi-mafias (Paraguay: 25.6%, Honduras: 19.8%, Guatemala: 11.6%), Venezuela (14.9%) and, ranking last, Nicaragua (4.2%) where the president and the mentally deranged first lady-vice president clearly don’t care at all (I mean, last year, they even organized ‘Love in the time of Covid-19’ parades and mass gatherings without any social distancing measures as a way to ‘fight’ the pandemic).

From the same article, the ramp-up of the Ecuadorian vaccination program is quite impressive, increasing from only 14.5 doses administered per 100 people on 24 May to 116.4 on 22 September; by comparison, the United States had reached 14.4 doses per 100 people on 12 February but is experiencing a very slow growth in vaccination since June, having administered 115.2 doses per 100 people on 22 September. At this pace, Argentina and Brazil may as well surpass them in the next weeks.

As sum up, quite harshly, by the article:

There is one notable exception: the United States has been vaccinating below its potential for weeks, so that now the gap between where it is and where it is supposed to be, based on income level, is proportionally equivalent to that of much poorer countries such as Honduras, Guatemala or Venezuela. In fact, those countries are currently vaccinating at a higher rate than the US.

The article also elaborates a bit about how wealth remains a key determinant of the vaccination rate both between countries and within countries.


Quite true for Ecuador, where in the area of Guayaquil, the posh canton of Samborondón has a 100% vaccination rate when Guayaquil canton has only only a 53.9% vaccination rate and the lower class canton of Durán a 36.2% vaccination rate (numbers taken from Primicias). In the area of Quito, the wealthiest Rumiñahui canton has a 82.6% vaccination rate when Quito canton has only a 65.9% vaccination rate. Unsurprisingly, the vaccination rate is particularly low in indigenous-populated cantons in Amazon – 5.9% in Taisha almost entirely settled by Jivaroan communities – (can only be often accessed only by small plane or inland ship hence posing probably a lot of logistics problems), in southern Chimborazo (which is also, probably not entirely incidentally, the area where traditionally record numbers of spoiled ballots are cast in elections) and in San Lorenzo (Esmeraldas), a canton populated by Afro-Ecuadorian rural communities and bordering Colombia.

Nevertheless, cantons with the highest rates of vaccinations also include a few Amazon ones with large indigenous population (Aguarico: 100%; Cuyabeno: 70.6%), the southeast part of El Oro (mestizo rural cantons where economy is dominated by mining and small farming) or the Chota Valley home to sizable Afro-Ecuadorian impoverished communities (92.8% in Mira; 78.7% in Bolívar, Carchi). The Galápagos somehow haven’t yet reached full vaccination despite being having been way ahead of the rest of the country at the start of the vaccination process under Moreno.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Disabled people suffer higher mortality from COVID-19 than the general population:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-27/covid-vaccine-rolllout-disability-australia/100493464

[Sir Mohamed]

Japan is going to lift restrictions:

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1442846005708431376

[SnowLabrador]

Hot take: Americans will never be allowed to travel internationally again. Or at least, we'll be the last country where COVID remains endemic.

[It’s so Joever]

What is going on in the UK? I am very concerned given that even with their higher vaccination rates, their numbers are still so high. More importantly, why did cases in India and the US fall while they haven’t for the British? What is going on?

[Pericles]

What is going on in the UK? I am very concerned given that even with their higher vaccination rates, their numbers are still so high. More importantly, why did cases in India and the US fall while they haven’t for the British? What is going on?

I can't answer all of that, but it may be because England lifted all of its restrictions while most European countries kept some minor ones. A lot of the current cases are also from secondary school children, where their vaccine rollout seems to have been poor (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/08/covid-rates-rising-in-secondary-schools-in-england-ons-data-shows), though I'm not sure how that compares with other countries. Except for NZ, which is at 68% first dosed among that demographic so I'm sure that is better than the UK.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/07/england-vaccine-just-plus-europe-covid

[CumbrianLefty]

What is going on in the UK? I am very concerned given that even with their higher vaccination rates, their numbers are still so high. More importantly, why did cases in India and the US fall while they haven’t for the British? What is going on?

A decision was basically made to let all schoolkids develop "natural immunity" by getting it.

[afleitch]

What is going on in the UK? I am very concerned given that even with their higher vaccination rates, their numbers are still so high. More importantly, why did cases in India and the US fall while they haven’t for the British? What is going on?

A decision was basically made to let all schoolkids develop "natural immunity" by getting it.

Schools returned in Scotland earlier and before UK Gov announced a vaccine rollout for those school aged. That alone trebled cases in a fortnight but they fell equally as sharp and we're at the lowest of the four nations again.

Nothing changed in terms of restrictions apart from the continued mask mandate and the vaccine passport hasn't really kicked in yet.

There may be 'reasons' why this strategy has been followed, with schools given that the overly cautious Scot Gov didn't increase restrictions.

Untimately the link between case numbers and hospitalisation and between hospitalisation and death has been severed. Deaths are concentrated among the elderly (and presumably vaccinated) which is more of a ... 'normal' for a flu-like illness. Which I think is what they are going for.

There is also talk of the 'flu' itself coming back with a bang this winter, so maintaining socialisation to try and dilute it's effects might be another factor.

[President Johnson]

CureVac early started as a favorite for a Covil vaccine and even the German government invested millions of euros into the Tübingen-based company. After studies found their vaccine only 47% effective, approval application been withdrawn now. However, a spokesman said the company wants to continue working on a "second generation vaccine."

https://twitter.com/carlzimmer/status/1447914549538136065

[Frodo]

As frustrated as my fellow Americans are with the stubbornly unvaccinated here at home, it's not much better in Russia with only about a third of the population fully vaccinated, and they're dealing with many of the same issues we have here:

Russia's daily COVID-19 death toll at record high as vaccination program stalls

Apathy and Wariness of Kremlin Leaves Russians Unvaccinated
The country hit 1,000 deaths in a 24-hour period for the first time since the pandemic began, reflecting the risks of having a low vaccination rate.

[CumbrianLefty]

Of course the suspicion Russia's previous death figures haven't been totally accurate is widespread.

[President Johnson]

Putin announced a work-free week from October 30 to bring down infection rates.

It's actually stunning the vaccination rate is Russia is that low despite the government's pressure to get vaccinated. I wonder why there is so much hesitancy there? You would expect more people follow the call of an autocratic leader.

[afleitch]

Putin announced a work-free week from October 30 to bring down infection rates.

It's actually stunning the vaccination rate is Russia is that low despite the government's pressure to get vaccinated. I wonder why there is so much hesitancy there? You would expect more people follow the call of an autocratic leader.

It might be also be the only way to express extreme dissatisfaction.

[It’s so Joever]

Putin announced a work-free week from October 30 to bring down infection rates.

It's actually stunning the vaccination rate is Russia is that low despite the government's pressure to get vaccinated. I wonder why there is so much hesitancy there? You would expect more people follow the call of an autocratic leader.

I believe Russia has long had high rates of vaccine skepticism. Even before Covid I’m pretty sure polls showed that people living in Russia were far less likely to have positive views of vaccinations than much of the World.

[Meclazine for Israel]

UK experiencing a third wave.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The rate of infection is quite high, but the death rate during this wave is around 10% of the first one, probably less.

[Frodo]

UK experiencing a third wave.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

The rate of infection is quite high, but the death rate during this wave is around 10% of the first one, probably less.

If the virus were a sentient animal, I would say that means it's getting 'smarter' and 'learning from its mistakes'.  The paramount object of all living things (including viruses) is to spread around and multiply in a bid for survival.  It is self-defeating to infect a host and then have it die on you.  That won't do at all.   

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Putin announced a work-free week from October 30 to bring down infection rates.

It's actually stunning the vaccination rate is Russia is that low despite the government's pressure to get vaccinated. I wonder why there is so much hesitancy there? You would expect more people follow the call of an autocratic leader.

I believe Russia has long had high rates of vaccine skepticism. Even before Covid I’m pretty sure polls showed that people living in Russia were far less likely to have positive views of vaccinations than much of the World.

Yes, this. Basically all the countries from USSR/Warsaw Pact struggles with that (to different degree).

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/

For instance, Bulgaria (20%) and Romania (30%) are in EU and thus have basically limitless access to Pfizer/Moderna, yet they have lower/same vaccination rate as Russia (32%). Belarus has 18%, Ukraine 15%.

Some Russians has at least a plausible deniability - they say, they'd like to be vaccinated, just not with Sputnik V.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

What is going on in the UK? I am very concerned given that even with their higher vaccination rates, their numbers are still so high. More importantly, why did cases in India and the US fall while they haven’t for the British? What is going on?

Among other things:

• they got people vaccinated very fast, especially their elders = much more people [than in EU/US] whose immunity has waned.
• they got vaccinated with AstraZeneca, especially their elders, and, unfortunately, immunity induced by Astrazeneca vanes faster.
• weather (vs India/US/South Europe) = more people are indoors
• chose to not vaccinate children (= more cases)

Here's my post about wane of immunity among the elders (+AstraZeneca).

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

"I have right to know that".

But there is plenty of info. FDA panel didn't make their decision out of the blue. Healthy young people doesn't really need any booster (for now).

https://www.ft.com/content/cf83b3a1-fe06-4c9f-999c-7500090aee7c
Why are Covid vaccine boosters needed and who in the UK will receive them?
Britain is joining nine other countries that have announced similar programmes offering an additional jab

Boosters are aimed at combating the waning immunity that has prompted an uptick in infections even among highly vaccinated populations. The level of protection provided by vaccines against severe disease and death wanes in the period beyond three months after a second dose, according to data published on Tuesday by Public Health England.

The rate of waning was found to be steepest among the most elderly and those with serious underlying health conditions.

“A booster programme for Covid-19 vaccines among the higher-risk adult population is a natural follow-on from the observed waning in vaccine effectiveness as time from the completion of primary two-shot vaccination course extends,” said Penny Ward, visiting professor in pharmaceutical medicine at King’s College London.

“Despite this being an apparently low fall-off [in immunity] — for example from 90 to 80 per cent protection — on a population basis that small difference is likely to translate into significant numbers of people needing hospital care for Covid.”

[...]

The UK booster rollout will begin next week, with elderly care-home residents to be offered jabs first. This will be followed by adults aged 50 years or over in age cohorts, frontline health and social care workers and younger adults with underlying health conditions.

People caring for or living with vulnerable adults will also be eligible. But no one will be offered a third vaccination less than six months after their second jab.

There are no plans to give additional jabs to people aged under 50 this year. “The benefits of booster vaccination in this group will be considered later when more information is available,” Public Health England said in a statement.

As you see, for healthy people the effectiveness [against hospital admission] barely moves. Even for healthy 65+ it went from ~99% to ~95% almost 5+ months after. For 40-64, it at 98% 4 months after... If you're younger, then it is likely even higher.

If you AstraZeneca or if you're old or is "clinically extremely vulnerable", then, of course, booster is a given thing. If you wounder about the definition of "clinically extremely vulnerable", here you go https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/people-at-higher-risk/who-is-at-high-risk-from-coronavirus-clinically-extremely-vulnerable/

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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Clinically extremely vulnerable list
You're considered clinically extremely vulnerable if:

• your doctor or GP has classed you as clinically extremely vulnerable because they think you're at high risk of getting seriously ill
• you've been identified as possibly being at high risk through the COVID-19 Population Risk Assessment
• you've had an organ transplant
• you're having chemotherapy or antibody treatment for cancer, including immunotherapy
• you're having an intense course of radiotherapy (radical radiotherapy) for lung cancer
• you're having targeted cancer treatments that can affect the immune system (such as protein kinase inhibitors or PARP inhibitors)
• you have blood or bone marrow cancer (such as leukaemia, lymphoma or myeloma)
• you've had a bone marrow or stem cell transplant in the past 6 months, or are still taking immunosuppressant medicine
• you've been told by a doctor you have a severe lung condition (such as cystic fibrosis, severe asthma or severe COPD)
• you have a condition that means you have a very high risk of getting infections (such as SCID or sickle cell)
• you're taking medicine that makes you much more likely to get infections (such as high doses of steroids or immunosuppressant medicine)
• you have a serious heart condition and are pregnant
• you have a problem with your spleen or your spleen has been removed (splenectomy)
• you're an adult with Down's syndrome
• you're an adult who is having dialysis or has severe (stage 5) long-term kidney disease

Important
This list may not include everyone who is at high risk from COVID-19 and may change as we learn more about the virus.

Here is a thread with much more interesting stats from the FT journo.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1438100712441974786

[Pericles]

The UK does have one of the highest testing rates in the world, and a lot higher than even last Christmas. So this does skew the picture a bit both with how they're doing comparatively and how bad the situation is compared to how it was there. I still don't think their current death rate is a good outcome though.