International COVID-19 Megathread

[CumbrianLefty]

First italian Covid-19 case go back to November 2019
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bjd.19804

Which would be a couple of months before it was "officially" discovered.

So highly significant if true.

[FrancoAgo]

First italian Covid-19 case go back to November 2019
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bjd.19804

Which would be a couple of months before it was "officially" discovered.

So highly significant if true.

AFAIK the first official now was 1st december so less one month, however there are rumors that unofficially was from november, talking of China

[Sir Mohamed]

First italian Covid-19 case go back to November 2019
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bjd.19804

Which would be a couple of months before it was "officially" discovered.

So highly significant if true.

AFAIK the first official now was 1st december so less one month, however there are rumors that unofficially was from november, talking of China

Hot take: The 1st transmission happened in Q2 or Q3 of 2019 in the PRC. I think I read this somewhere a few months ago.

This article suggests the virus was in Italy as early as September: https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-17/COVID-19-was-spreading-in-Italy-by-September-2019-study-indicates-VuSqUttP8s/index.html

[palandio]

It is quite plausible that there were earlier cases of something resembling COVID-19 in China and around the world.

The point remains though that as far as I know genetically speaking all sequenced samples from the "official" phase can be traced back to strains that diverged in China probably as late as December. Most of current samples can be traced back to the cluster that spread in Europe and the Middle East after ca. January 19. (We can't know for sure though because many countries don't do a lot of sequencing.)

Hence while there might have been cases in Italy in autumn 2019, the first wave in February and March was probably not connected to them. This might seem counterintuitive but in fact in genetics most branches die out at some point due to both random and lower fitness. If I had to guess I would say that in December 2019 a mutation occurred (probably in Wuhan) that made the virus much more contagious.

[President Johnson]

First italian Covid-19 case go back to November 2019
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bjd.19804

Which would be a couple of months before it was "officially" discovered.

So highly significant if true.

AFAIK the first official now was 1st december so less one month, however there are rumors that unofficially was from november, talking of China

Hot take: The 1st transmission happened in Q2 or Q3 of 2019 in the PRC. I think I read this somewhere a few months ago.

This article suggests the virus was in Italy as early as September: https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-17/COVID-19-was-spreading-in-Italy-by-September-2019-study-indicates-VuSqUttP8s/index.html

That's not even a hot take. Some studies found this, but it's not a confirmed census yet. Encouraging news came today: China has approved a team of WHO experts entering the country to seek the origin of the virus. We may never know the full answer, but we may get more information as a result.

[urutzizu]

In Ireland they have now announced that currently 25% of positive tests sequenced (week ending Jan 3rd) are linked the British Variant. Friday *last week* the announcement was that it was 10% of positive tests sequenced, from which they estimated 5-17% of current infections in the Community. Ireland is currently going through a quite extreme surge in infection rates generally, which is surely at least partially responsible, but that is still one hell of an increase.

https://m.independent.ie/news/ireland-records-highest-covid-19-infection-rate-in-the-world-over-past-seven-days-39954862.html

It is 45% now. Gone from 10% to 45% in barely two weeks.

[CumbrianLefty]

Brits having a negative impact on the Irish again......

[Mike88]

155 new deaths yesterday here. Things are grim.

[Mike88]

Portugal will enter in a month long lockdown at midnight tonight. PM Costa will announce the new rules during the day. The main discussion right now is about schools as the government is divided on which students could attend class or not.

At the same time the number of new cases and deaths reached new records today: 10,556 new cases and 156 deaths.

[CumbrianLefty]

UK has had 1000 plus virus related deaths in 4 of the past 5 days - what will today bring?

[parochial boy]

Despite falling numbers, Switzerland is going back to the rules in place during the first lockdown back in spring. The hope is that this will be enough to pre-emptively stave of a surge of the British variant.

There is, however, one exception to the rules: Ski resorts are staying open.

At this point, you really just have to admire the sheer stubborness about this issue.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Italy's numbers seem to have stabilized, which is pretty bad since they are still too damn high, but fortunately not nearly as high as e.g. United Kingdom or Portugal.

Ah also restrictions now are officially regionally-based, with regions divided into "zones" (from the strictest to least, red zone, orange zone, yellow zone, and maybe a white zone will be introduced as well?) based on how badly the outbreak is looking in each one.
Liguria is in the yellow zone right now, which means restrictions are quite loose but there are still funny things like a 10 pm curfew about doing stuff in general and a 6 pm curfew about eating and drinking inside establishments, and what can I say, it feels completely random.

[Tender Branson]

Austrian experts expect a massive spike in insolvencies in the 2nd half of this year:

https://www.diepresse.com/5920995/akv-rechnet-mit-insolvenzwelle-spatestens-im-zweiten-halbjahr

Private and corporate insolvencies.

I expect this to be the case in other countries as well, with a lot of cinemas, fitness gyms, restaurants, hotels etc. closing shop for good once the state aid dries up or is limited.

[CumbrianLefty]

UK has had 1000 plus virus related deaths in 4 of the past 5 days - what will today bring?

The answer is over 1500, a new high

[Mike88]

Portugal: PM Costa announced the lockdown measures:

-Restaurants, bars, shops, hairdressers, all close;
-Cultural events are forbidden;
-Schools will remain open for all ages and antigen tests (rapid tests) will be conducted regularly;
-Courts will also remain open;
-Health clinics and dentists will remain open;
-Penalties for those who violate the rules will duplicate;
-Teleworking mandatory;
-Businesses closed during this period will have the same Social Security supports they had in the 1st lockdown in March/April;
-The football championship will not be interrupted but will continue without audience;

Insted of today at midnight, the lockdown will only start tomorrow at midnight.

The Health minister also signed a dispatch that mandates all public hospitals to stop all non-Covid surgeries urgent and non-urgent, in order to concentrate all efforts in the Covid fight.

[President Johnson]

Deadliest day of the pandemic: 1,244 reported deaths from yesterday.

Rumors are that the shotdown will even last beyond the end of this month, which would be the second extension. Meanwhile, 1% of the population has been vaccinated so far, around 840k people.

[Mike88]

Portugal's second lockdown started at midnight, but the media is reporting that the movement on the streets and subways is basically similar to yesterday.

Público's coverage: https://www.publico.pt/2021/01/15/sociedade/noticia/portugal-entra-novo-confinamento-geral-franca-impoe-recolher-obrigatorio-nacional-partir-18h-1946415

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

A sad new mark has been reached: 2 million deaths worldwide. Also, the number of total cases has surpassed 90 million and may break 100 million before the end of January. Don't know if PSOL wants to update the thread title to reflect this.

[CumbrianLefty]

Widespread panic over this supposed new "Brazilian variant" of Covid now.

[Mike88]

Widespread panic over this supposed new "Brazilian variant" of Covid now.

Almost every country now seems to have their own variant: UK, South Africa, USA and now Brazil.

[President Johnson]

Widespread panic over this supposed new "Brazilian variant" of Covid now.

Almost every country now seems to have their own variant: UK, South Africa, USA and now Brazil.

It was always going to diversify. This is just a natural destination for any virus. The increased rate of transmissions are pretty worrisome in the short term because hospitals are already on the edge whereever you look, despite the mutation not being more deadly. The really important question is how effective vaccines are against mutations. So far, and that's the good news, there is no evidence vaccines are less effective. A recent study confirmed Pfizer/Biontech vaccine is equally effective against the UK version.

[Tender Branson]

Things continue to be pretty stable here, even though there are more than 150 confirmed UK-strain cases in the country already.

Maybe schools and shops will open again after the 24th, but only with mandatory FFP2-mask-wearing.

Also: kids will get tested in school now every week.

[Mike88]

View of Lisbon during the 1st day of the "2nd lockdown":

Like the media reported during the day, a lot more traffic and movement compared with the 1st lockdown in March-May. The media also reports a lot of businesses working in "undercover"mode.

[Tender Branson]

This is happening in Vienna right now:



Anti-COVID measures protest.

A mix of left-wingers, right-wingers and conspiracy theorists ...

[Tender Branson]

This is probably the Austrian version of the American guy below: