International COVID-19 Megathread

[President Johnson]

Thirteen days after the minister-presidents of the German states had agreed to allow social gatherings of people from more than two households over Christmas and New Year's Eve a push has begun to at least partially revoke that agreement again next week.

Who cares I wonder... last Saturday I happened to talk to someone who didn't know what the currently existing Corona restrictions look like and when I told her she asked me to define what exactly a "household" is with regards to these restrictions. That wasn't a particularly dumb person, because she also reads George Orwell and is in the process of learning the Chinese language, but at the same time she apparently considers the Corona regulations as way too abstract and also too far removed from her normal course of life. I consider that a somewhat representative anecdote. Only Corona nerds know the Corona rules.

My impression is that many of the proposed "tightened restrictions" (mask mandate outside, mulled wine ban, max. five people incl. max. one guest instead of max. five people from max. two households, etc.) have symbolic value at best and only a fool would expect them to make a decisive difference.

What seems to have had a bigger effect was the announcement of a prolongation (and slight "tightening") of restrictions on November 25. Since then the reproduction number has increased to slightly above 1. Although every "Corona nerd" knew that a prolongation had to be expected it seems that its announcement was the signal for some people to turn to epidemiological work-to-rule.

The Leopoldina, an official group of scientists advising the government, has proposed a serious lockdown after Christmas. This could actually make sense since schools will be closed anyways and many workplaces will run at reduced pace.

I agree. I think a full lockdown makes sense, especially for the time after Christmas. There isn't much going on in this period, anyway. As bad as it is, it's necessary now. Other countries have shown that brief and tough lockdowns are more effective than partial over many weeks.

I just hope there won't be a total stay at home order so that you can at least go out for a walk. I just need my daily exercise/walk.

[parochial boy]

So back in November there was a huge language divide in Switzerland where Romandie had much higher numbers than German Switzerland - the worst in Europe even; which all led to much discussion about the "Coronagraben" and sneering comments in the Swiss German media (although, mostly SVP politicians in fact) about "latin" culture and the like.

By taking stricter measures, all the Romand cantons have brought down the numbers massively; while the German cantons saw their numbers decline a bit before starting to rise again in the last week or so. Noting the urgency, the Federal Council issued an ultimatum to several German cantons that they needed to smarten up a bit or the Council would be bringing in stricter measures. Most of them did, to be fair, give semi-bothered responses about limiting opening times or groups meetings. Except for Aargau, which quite happily told the Federal Council to shove their ultimatum up their arse because they weren't going to do anything. Consequence, new national measures - all shops, restaurants, everything must close at 7pm and a limit on meetings of 5 people. The French cantons, just in the process of opening up after decent results, are understandably furious.

The most ironic thing of all is that people in Aargau always complain about how no-one in the rest of the country likes them.

[palandio]

Closing shops at 7pm (or whichever time you want) is another measure that I find highly questionable from an epidemiological point of view. What sense does it have to enforce an early-evening grocery-shopping rush hour?

German politics during the last weeks has been full of ideas like this. Although I have been very skeptical of lockdown actionism I would say: Either you go with more "soft" measures, but don't expect the numbers to go down significantly; or you go for a serious lockdown if you want to bring the numbers down. A serious lockdown of course can't be sustained very long and needs to be followed by measures that are sustainable over a longer period.

A serious lockdown after Christmas seems like the right time to me. But if we look towards other countries where "the serious lockdown has been a success" numbers are already rising again (Israel, France?) and most of these countries have higher cumulative case numbers which means that population immunity is higher than here, which helps (particularly Belgium, Czech Republic, parts of Spain).

[Mr. Illini]

First vaccinations took place in the UK this morning.

History-making. Very cool to see. The beginning of the end.

[urutzizu]

Hm, one of the things I found quite interesting is that the reaction on the European Mainland and the US to the UK Vaccine Approval has been quite a contrast. Here the Media coverage is pretty...well not negative necessarily, but...sceptical. Some quite serious commentators such as Peter Liese even suggesting that it was essentially a political decision. Whereas in the US almost all the Media Coverage and scientist talking heads are taking a very different tone: saying that the UK's approval is a great thing and that the US will surely follow soon. Fauci even went to apologise after suggesting it may have been a bit to fast. I wonder why that is.

[President Johnson]

589 deaths yesterday. A new tragic record.

While Saxony is actually imposing a full lockdown after skyrocketing numbers for weeks, it looks more and more likely we'll end up with a nationwide shutdown after Christmas, for at least two or three weeks.

[President Johnson]

First vaccinations took place in the UK this morning.

Interesting is that the second person who got it, after the 90 year old woman, was a guy named William Shakespeare.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Mhm, if what I experience at my own work and what have I heard almost simultaneously from acquaintances in other jobs is any indication it seems like German employers have started to stretch the rules a bit in deliberately providing their employees with "legal" opportunities to experience social contacts in person. This includes in fact the loosening and scaling back of "work from home" practices or holding some form of Christmas parties in person which are officially declared "conference meetings".

Probably conveys some general mood that is going around... corona fatigue and the attempt to sit this one out somehow for a few weeks until the expected mass vaccinations start. Hell, the whole idea of the "lockdown light" could essentially be considered the politicians' version of that. But is also shows that every further restriction will probably be undermined somehow, making them less effective than they were this spring when compliance was still higher.

[CumbrianLefty]

First vaccinations took place in the UK this morning.

Interesting is that the second person who got it, after the 90 year old woman, was a guy named William Shakespeare.

Perhaps one for the "this may not actually have been a complete coincidence" file.

[President Johnson]

Germany update: Almost 30,000 additional cases yesterday, 598 deaths. A new record.

Merkel will sit down with Minister-Presidents of the states this Sunday and likely announce a full lockdown, starting rather sooner than later and going into January. After Saxony already imposed a full lockdown due to skyrocketing numbers and hospitals increasingly under pressure, my homestate of Baden-Württemberg today announced a stay at home order, effective Saturday for four weeks. At night, from 8 p.m. to 5 a.m. it's basically prohibited to get out the door other than for work and medical emergencies. In the meantime, it's only allowed to leave home for "valid reasons", such as going to shops and supermarkets (retail remains open), going to work and physical exercise (only with members of two households). The nightly stay at home order and contact bans will, in all likelyhood, be lifted over Christmas, with ten people allowed to gather.

While the so called "lockdown light" somewhat slowed the growth in new cases, it was largely a failure. The numbers are not close where they should be. Furthermore, they made a huge mistake by closing restaurants, which were not drivers of the pandemic.

[Tender Branson]

My state & district mass-tested its population today.

Turnout was 28% here in the district, or some 20.000 people.

99 were positive, or 0.5%

I didn’t go.

[Silent Hunter]

My state & district mass-tested its population today.

Turnout was 28% here in the district, or some 20.000 people.

99 were positive, or 0.5%

I didn’t go.

Why not?

[Tender Branson]

My state & district mass-tested its population today.

Turnout was 28% here in the district, or some 20.000 people.

99 were positive, or 0.5%

I didn’t go.

Why not?

Why would I ?

It’s a quick antibody test, who are still unreliable (of those found positive in this 10 minute test, 70% are false-positive. Meaning the ones who are flagged positive in the mass test have to make a PCR test then and only 30% are really infected).

Besides, there’s a higher risk of getting infected when there are 100 people at that test center, then not going there ...

[Middle-aged Europe]

While the so called "lockdown light" somewhat slowed the growth in new cases, it was largely a failure. The numbers are not close where they should be. Furthermore, they made a huge mistake by closing restaurants, which were not drivers of the pandemic.

The "lockdown light" perhaps could have been successful hadn't it been largely inconsistant and incoherent.

But, among other nonsensical things, we had the "Black Friday" and "sunday sales" during this "lockdown light".

To be frank, I lost faith in the politicians' abulity to effictively manage that crisis.

Some asshole politicns like Markus Söder (CSU) like blame the average citizen - or other states like Berlin, despite the fact that Bavaria has by now worse infection rates than the aforementioned state - for the lockdown light's failures.

[Tender Branson]

The past week has seen significant progress in lowering the numbers in Austria further, but they are still relatively high.

Deaths were ca. 630 during the week, down from a peak of 730 per week the two weeks before.

ICU capacity is down to 560, from a high of 750.

Hospitalisations in total are at 3.400, down from a high of 4.800 a few weeks ago.

[Mike88]

In Portugal, the situation seems to have stabilized in terms of new infections, while new deaths are increasing. New infections seem to have stabilized at around 4,000 per day, but daily deaths have reach a record today, 98.

New ICUs and hospitalizations were seeing a drop in the last few days, but this Sunday both increased, with 10 new ICUs and 64 new hospitalizations.

[President Johnson]

As expected, Germany will go into full lockdown starting Wednesday. In other words, most retail stores will close except supermarkets, drug stores, gas stations, pharmacies, banks and the post office. Current expiration date is January 10, and it's yet unknown what happens after. Contact restrictions will be lifted to a degree over Christmas, but not on New Year's Eve.

[Mike88]

A bit of comic relief. I had to post this. This is the deputy of the Health General Department in Portugal, in a press conference this afternoon:

https://twitter.com/mariana_rfv/status/1338875657426784257
Translation of what he said:

A reference to the Christmas dinner: It is not mandatory for Christmas to be celebrated, in this country, at Christmas dinner. You can celebrate it, for exceptional moments, at a Christmas lunch on the eve of Christmas Day. There is nothing to stop it. Let me give you an example: in my house there is a person who celebrates his birthday at precisely this time, on one of these days, and the celebration of that birthday is breakfast.

A bit latter he added this:

I advise a moderate and rational use to all substances that can bring greater affectivity

Amazing! xD

[Middle-aged Europe]

MACORONA! The French president has COVID.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/17/947449920/french-president-macron-tests-positive-for-coronavirus

[Mike88]

MACORONA! The French president had COVID.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/17/947449920/french-president-macron-tests-positive-for-coronavirus

And António Costa had a meeting with him yesterday. He has already been tested and is now wainting for the results.

[Mike88]

Costa being tested:

https://twitter.com/antoniocostapm/status/1339542591252160512

Due to the confirmation of the positive test of the French President @EmmanuelMacron, with whom I was yesterday at the Palace of the Elysee, I am in preventive prophylactic isolation until the health authorities assess the degree of risk.

He has also canceled his schedule trip for Guinea-Bissau and São Tomé and Principe, plus all of his schedule engagements for the next few days.

[CumbrianLefty]

Meanwhile in the EU, quite a few members getting restive at vaccinations not being started yet.

[Tender Branson]

Hard lockdown 3.0 in Austria will start on December 26, just 3 weeks after Hard lockdown 2.0 ended.

218 deaths were reported yesterday, or in US terms ca. 8.000 ...

[Mike88]

New year's eve is canceled in Portugal. Costa just announced a mandatory curfew starting at 11pm 31 December. No changes for Christmas though, however, family gatherings should have the minimum of people possible.

He also said his first test came negative but will continue in isolation.

[Knives]

New year's eve is canceled in Portugal. Costa just announced a mandatory curfew starting at 11pm 31 December. No changes for Christmas though, however, family gatherings should have the minimum of people possible.

He also said his first test came negative but will continue in isolation.

What an insane thing to do, if you know you need to hard lock down, why wait so long???