International COVID-19 Megathread

[Tender Branson]

Austrian Statistics Bureau:

Highest number of deaths in a single calendar week in 42 years

Vienna, 2020-12-03 – In calendar week 47 (16 to 22 November 2020), 2 431 people died in Austria, according to preliminary results from Statistics Austria. More deaths were last recorded in the week from 20 to 26 February 1978, when 2 516 people died. There have also been weeks with high death rates in the recent past, for example during the strong flu epidemic at the beginning of 2017: At that time, 2 340 people died between 9 and 15 January 2017.

"There was a sad record of deaths in Austria in the 47th calendar week. With 2 431 deaths within a single week, the highest weekly number of deaths was reached in 42 years. The deaths in the 47th calendar week were 58% above the average for the comparison period from 2015 to 2019. A total of 77 662 people died in the first 47 weeks of the year. That is 6.5% more than the average for the comparison period", said Statistics Austria Director General Tobias Thomas.

The increase in deaths in the first 47 weeks of 2020 affected men (+9.4%) to a much greater extent than women (+3.9%).

From week 43 (from 19 October) onwards, significant increases in the number of deaths have been recorded from week to week. In total, over the five weeks from 19 October to 22 November 2020, 10 380 people died in Austria, which is 36% more than the average for the last five years (7 623 people).  

Since week 43, the deviations in absolute death rates have also been visible in the age-standardised death rates, in which the deaths were adjusted for age and population structure.

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/124935.html

The week after was probably even worse, based on daily reported Covid deaths ...

[Tender Branson]

Interesting that in February 1978, there was a calendar week with 2.516 deaths in Austria.

That compares to 2.431 in the week of Nov. 16-22 this year.

But Austria’s population was 7.5 million in 1978, vs. 9 million now.

There must have been a brutal flu in February 1978 or something ...

[Tender Branson]

Interesting that in February 1978, there was a calendar week with 2.516 deaths in Austria.

That compares to 2.431 in the week of Nov. 16-22 this year.

But Austria’s population was 7.5 million in 1978, vs. 9 million now.

There must have been a brutal flu in February 1978 or something ...

1977-78 indeed had a major flu outbreak, called „Russian Flu“.

Back then it was also suspected that the strain came out of a lab in the Soviet Union or China ...

https://mbio.asm.org/content/6/4/e01013-15

https://www.nytimes.com/1978/02/14/archives/new-jersey-pages-outbreak-of-russian-flu-is-feared-as-fort-dix.html

[Silent Hunter]

That one didn't really have a huge impact as many of the most vulnerable had experienced a similar strain 20-30 years earlier and had some immunity. But it just goes to show that plagues are more common than you think.

The popular history impact of the 1968 pandemic, which killed more than Covid has so far, is basically nil.

[FrancoAgo]

That one didn't really have a huge impact as many of the most vulnerable had experienced a similar strain 20-30 years earlier and had some immunity. But it just goes to show that plagues are more common than you think.

The popular history impact of the 1968 pandemic, which killed more than Covid has so far, is basically nil.

Probably the Covid will kill more of the Hong Kong flu, are estimated about 34K to 100K* deaths in US for the flu and now the Covid is around to 280K

* wiki data

[parochial boy]

Although the fact that Covid has managed to do this despite, you know, lock downs, improved healthcare, better science and so on is indicative of... something... (but actually, one of those things is the increase in the number of people surviving into their 80s/90s compared to what used to be the case).

The worry is still what it is though - given how the modern economy works, given human settlement patterns and expansion into previously uninhabited areas and the ever increasing opportunities for these sorts of zoonotic events; how do we stop this happening again, and not just have to accept it becoming a once every 10 years or so type thing?

[President Johnson]

Although the fact that Covid has managed to do this despite, you know, lock downs, improved healthcare, better science and so on is indicative of... something... (but actually, one of those things is the increase in the number of people surviving into their 80s/90s compared to what used to be the case).

The worry is still what it is though - given how the modern economy works, given human settlement patterns and expansion into previously uninhabited areas and the ever increasing opportunities for these sorts of zoonotic events; how do we stop this happening again, and not just have to accept it becoming a once every 10 years or so type thing?

I wonder how Covid would have played out 20, 30 or 40 years ago? It's not just the medical standards compared to today, it's also technology in general. Today, we can have smart technological solutions for problems the pandemic is causing, like warning apps and so on. Thanks to the internet, a lot more data can be collected very fast and used around the world. People can work from home, which would not have been possible to the same extent even one or two decades ago.

I'm not sure we will have something like this each decade, but it's a warning sign there are limits to growth. Especially with human kind getting deeper and deeper into natural habitats. We see first hand what consequences this pandemic had despite developing a vaccine within one year, which is an enormous feat. What if that took much longer? Or the virus was more deadly than it is? The first SARS from 2003 had about 10% mortality. As bad as it is, it could be even worse. And it might be next time, if we don't learn our lessons. Whether it's 10, 20 or 40 years from now.

[Silent Hunter]

I wonder how Covid would have played out 20, 30 or 40 years ago?

In 1980? Probably just seen as a really bad flu season.

[President Johnson]

I wonder how Covid would have played out 20, 30 or 40 years ago?

In 1980? Probably just seen as a really bad flu season.

I think it would have been worse. With the flu, there is at least some immunity in the general population since there's a flu season every year. Although each annual virus differs to a degree, it still has a protective effect with people that were infected in the previous cycle. With Covid, there was no immunity among the entire world population whatsoever, which is why it spreads so easy and fast. Covid-19 is also about ten times more deadly than the flu.

While lockdowns would have been possible and even were imposed during the Spanish flu, the economic impact might have been greater since technology was not nearly as advanced as today. Let alone data exchange around the world, especially among scientists. The only positive I see is less mobility compared to the 2020s.

[Knives]

Did the world learn nothing from the first wave? Horrifying numbers everywhere atm.

[Tender Branson]

Austria's mass population tests have started in 3 states yesterday (Vienna, Tyrol, Vorarlberg).

More than 100.000 people took part on the first day, but only 0.4% were found positive.

It's estimated that ca. 30-60% of the population will take part.

[Tender Branson]

Our hard lockdown will end tomorrow, which I think is far too early.

It should have been extended to Jan. 7th - but the economy has other interests ...

[Tender Branson]

Austria's mass population tests have started in 3 states yesterday (Vienna, Tyrol, Vorarlberg).

Tyrol has tested 76.197 people yesterday, of which 202 were positive (0.3%)

Vorarlberg has tested 52.142 people yesterday, of which 192 were positive (0.4%)

Vienna has tested 22.402 people yesterday, of which 112 were positive (0.5%)

[Mike88]

Portugal: PM Costa announced the measures for Christmas and New Year's eve:

- Traveling between municipalities will be allowed between 23 and 26 December;
- On Christmas Eve, circulating in the streets will be allowed until 2am; On the 26, only until 11pm;
- On New Year's eve, circulation between municipalities is forbidden;
- Circulating in the streets will be allowed until 2am;
- Public parties on the streets will be forbidden, and only gatherings up to 6 persons allowed;

In terms of new cases, the number rose to more than 6,000 today, with 6,087 new cases today, 73 deaths and 6,166 recoveries.

Tyrol has tested 76.197 people yesterday, of which 202 were positive (0.3%)

Vorarlberg has tested 52.142 people yesterday, of which 192 were positive (0.4%)

Vienna has tested 22.402 people yesterday, of which 112 were positive (0.5%)

Nice. Here in Portugal, only in the Azores are they doing massive testing. The infamous Rabo de Peixe parish, almost 10,000 inhabitants, is under lockdown and the regional government is also testing all the inhabitants of the parish.

[Tender Branson]

Austria update after 2 weeks of hard lockdown:

* new cases down significantly, from a high 9.5k per day to 2-3k per day
* hospitalisations down ca. 20% from the peak, ICU capacity down ca. 10% from the peak
* deaths are still up, but seem to be peaking now with ca. 735 this week vs. 717 last week

Registered active cases are down from a high of 80.000 to about 45.000 now as well.

All of those numbers are still very high though and I see a 3rd hard lockdown coming in March or something.

[Mike88]

Nice. Here in Portugal, only in the Azores are they doing massive testing. The infamous Rabo de Peixe parish, almost 10,000 inhabitants, is under lockdown and the regional government is also testing all the inhabitants of the parish.

Rabo de Peixe update: 5,846 tests were conducted on Friday and Saturday, of which 114 were positive (1.95%). More tests will be conducted during today, Sunday.

[urutzizu]

Markus Söder becomes the first to put his state into Hard Lockdown. Stay-at-Home order for all of Bavaria like in March, Curfew for Hotspots, de facto border closure (although he tried avoiding the word), switch to partial online learning for many schools. It seems however that due to Pressure from his coalition partner (whose leader is the Economy Minister and has clashed with Söder before on this) unlike in Austria non-essential retail stays open for the christmas season, and people can leave home for all shopping, which kind of undermines the Idea of a Stay-at-Home order.

Pushing ahead like this is very reminiscent of March, an approach that won him a huge popularity, both in Bavaria and outside, and effectively forcing the rest of Germany to follow with more stringent measures. Of course you don't have to be hugely cynical to figure that his ambitions for the Chancellery next year might have played a role going ahead like this.

The interesting counterpoint to this that doesn't really get mentioned that often, is what one could call the California paradox: Bavaria has done really badly as a empirical fact, both in the first and the second wave. Bavarias contact tracers were among those most quickly overwhelmed, the situation in the Hospitals and Care homes is worse there than possibly anywhere outside Saxony. As States in northern Germany (esp. Bremen, Niedersachsen, Hamburg) have reduced Infection by about half since the beginning of November, Bavaria's is the second worst in the Country. Despite having had consistently policy-wise the strictest approach and regularly chiding the other states for not doing so.

Yet Söders popularity remains unbroken. Of course there is the possibility that Bavaria may be at a disadvantage due to factors outside of their control. Dependency on Workers from Czechia, especially in the Care sector, similarly to Saxony, and the Border with Austria, both of which were at a time Countries with the highest infection rate in Europe. Bavaria also has less strict standards for testing and aspects of Bavarian/South German culture may be more "advantageous" towards the viral spread compared to North Germany (similar to the debate around Southern Europe <-> Northern Europe). But it is still a very interesting development that flies in the face of the popular narrative. I guess many people really do just want a strong leader.

[CumbrianLefty]

But it is still a very interesting development that flies in the face of the popular narrative. I guess many people really do just want a strong leader.

But this doesn't always work, Trump paid the price for handling things incompetently for instance.

[Silent Hunter]

Trump didn't actually drop that much below his 2016 PV in 2020, mind. In fact, he went up 0.8%. Of course, the alarming thing is that without the pandemic, he might well have hit 50%...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Markus Söder becomes the first to put his state into Hard Lockdown. Stay-at-Home order for all of Bavaria like in March, Curfew for Hotspots, de facto border closure (although he tried avoiding the word), switch to partial online learning for many schools. It seems however that due to Pressure from his coalition partner (whose leader is the Economy Minister and has clashed with Söder before on this) unlike in Austria non-essential retail stays open for the christmas season, and people can leave home for all shopping, which kind of undermines the Idea of a Stay-at-Home order.

Pushing ahead like this is very reminiscent of March, an approach that won him a huge popularity, both in Bavaria and outside, and effectively forcing the rest of Germany to follow with more stringent measures. Of course you don't have to be hugely cynical to figure that his ambitions for the Chancellery next year might have played a role going ahead like this.

This time Söder was beaten to it by Saxony though, at least with regards to stay-at-home orders and curfews.

Also, it isn't a hard lockdown if retail stores remain open for Christmas shopping. I'd call that a fake lockdown.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Thirteen days after the minister-presidents of the German states had agreed to allow social gatherings of people from more than two households over Christmas and New Year's Eve a push has begun to at least partially revoke that agreement again next week.

Who cares I wonder... last Saturday I happened to talk to someone who didn't know what the currently existing Corona restrictions look like and when I told her she asked me to define what exactly a "household" is with regards to these restrictions. That wasn't a particularly dumb person, because she also reads George Orwell and is in the process of learning the Chinese language, but at the same time she apparently considers the Corona regulations as way too abstract and also too far removed from her normal course of life. I consider that a somewhat representative anecdote. Only Corona nerds know the Corona rules.

[Tender Branson]

Officially confirmed COVID-deaths have passed 4.000 today in Austria.

But the real overmortality this year will be much higher than that ...

Usually, there are 82.000 deaths in Austria every year - but it will be around 90.000 this year, or +8.000, or +10%.

How many of those are hidden COVID-deaths is unknown, a lot of people are dying in their homes and no autopsies are performed on a lot of dead these days. People are also dying these days because of worse medical treatment than usual, as surgeries are postponed because hospitals are quite full.

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000122236518/lockdown-und-kaum-freie-intensivbetten-pandemie-fordert-auch-mehr-todesfaelle

[CumbrianLefty]

First vaccinations took place in the UK this morning.

[2952-0-0]

First vaccinations took place in the UK this morning.

Margaret Keenan and William Shakespeare, freshly injected with the Bill Gates 5G nanochip, were later seen smashing up an Apple Store while chanting "MUST CRUSH CAPITALISM YAAARGH!".

[palandio]

Thirteen days after the minister-presidents of the German states had agreed to allow social gatherings of people from more than two households over Christmas and New Year's Eve a push has begun to at least partially revoke that agreement again next week.

Who cares I wonder... last Saturday I happened to talk to someone who didn't know what the currently existing Corona restrictions look like and when I told her she asked me to define what exactly a "household" is with regards to these restrictions. That wasn't a particularly dumb person, because she also reads George Orwell and is in the process of learning the Chinese language, but at the same time she apparently considers the Corona regulations as way too abstract and also too far removed from her normal course of life. I consider that a somewhat representative anecdote. Only Corona nerds know the Corona rules.

My impression is that many of the proposed "tightened restrictions" (mask mandate outside, mulled wine ban, max. five people incl. max. one guest instead of max. five people from max. two households, etc.) have symbolic value at best and only a fool would expect them to make a decisive difference.

What seems to have had a bigger effect was the announcement of a prolongation (and slight "tightening") of restrictions on November 25. Since then the reproduction number has increased to slightly above 1. Although every "Corona nerd" knew that a prolongation had to be expected it seems that its announcement was the signal for some people to turn to epidemiological work-to-rule.

The Leopoldina, an official group of scientists advising the government, has proposed a serious lockdown after Christmas. This could actually make sense since schools will be closed anyways and many workplaces will run at reduced pace.