International COVID-19 Megathread

[palandio]

After Berlin had been Germany's main COVID hotspot for the past couple of weeks, the regions most affected by the Coronavirus have now shifted to the southern parts of former East Germany.  Oddly enough, these areas had previously been among the least affected in past months.

Saxony has surpassed Berlin as the state with the most new infections per 100,000 inhabitants, particularly in Saxony's more rural counties. The county with most new infections Germany-wide is Hildburghausen in neighbouring Thuringia. The imposition of stricter anti-Corona measures sparked a wave of public protests in Hildburghausen that made national news.

Theorizing has begun to explain this new phenomenon, including the assumption that these counties are major AfD strongholds and the AfD is the German party most critical of any COVID measures and restrictions. So just like Trumpists in the U.S. they don't wear masks und don't abide by hygiene and sanitation protocols.

The more harmless explanation is that since these areas hadn't been much affected by the pandemic so far, the population also hadn't considered Corona much of a danger based on their prior experience. Therefore fewer mask-wearing and less compliance with hygiene and sanitation protocols.

Other explanations include: The virus spread to these counties from the neighbouring Czech Republic which had been severly affected by COVID recently. Also, these counties have for the most part a rapidly aging population and therefore are more susceptible to an outbreak.

With the reproduction number at ca. 1 on average in all of Germany, small differences can decide if a region has growing or falling case numbers:

- Spread of the virus from heavily hit neighboring regions. In some border areas the economy and particularly the care industry depend heavily on Czech commuters.
- The proportion of population that willfully does not comply with measures and restrictions
- A different economic structure that allows employees to switch to work from home or that does not allow this.
- The population, health care system, nursing homes and local authorities being used to the pandemic being a local threat or not
- The percentage of immune persons in Germany is maybe ca. 3%, i.e. far from "herd immunity", but 5% of immune persons in the more strongly affected regions can shift the reproduction number from 1.0 to 0.95, probably even lower, because the immune persons can be expected to be more exposed than the average person (the more exposed persons are more likely to get infected and hence more likely to become immune first).
- Local health authorities being able to do effective contact tracing, which depends probably on both the case numbers and on experience.
- ...

We should be careful that the pandemic situation in different regions doesn't drift apart, with some regions slowly regaining control and other regions not regaining control with the same overall policy. In that respect the introduction of a >200 cases/100k/week bracket for counties makes sense.

Saxony is peculiar because the age groups with the highest incidence (apart from the very old) are not in the 15-30 years range like in most of the rest of Germany, but in the 40-60 years range.

[Samof94]

Looks like we might be entering some sort of twilight zone. Ontario now expecting 10k cases a day in late December. Record high of 1855 set today. 

Canada seems to going down a similar path to America but at a lower level.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Sweden at 70% of ICU capacity, new polls shows only 42% of Swedes have confidence in the authority's ability to fight the virus, 44% worry that they are not doing enough.

Currently averaging about 4800 cases per day, projected to go up to 8000 per day in December. And we're back to about 20-40 deaths per day.

Sweden have been a success in my book.

The death rate is now under 15 people per day.

They took a risk, and it allows better scientific analysis of approaches. If everyone does the same thing, you would never know.

But the average Swedish person was given responsibility and they took it onboard.

Compared to their first wave, the infection rate is 4 times higher, but the death rate is 4 times lower.

So the death rate per case has dropped by over 15/16 or 94% less.

Incredible.

[Tender Branson]

Austria is now back down to Germany levels after 2 weeks of hard lockdown.

Cases were up by 2.000 yesterday, down from a high of 9.500 new cases in early November.

But it was a Sunday, where numbers are always much lower. And IMO those numbers are still way too high, especially because ICU and death numbers are still extremely high (the virus has spread quite heavily into nursing homes this time).

But the lockdown continues another week, so eventually the numbers could go down much more - similar to numbers in Czechia and Belgium and possibly even below Germany's per capita numbers.

[Tender Branson]

Bravo Madrid (Saturday Christmas shopping) ...

[Zinneke]

The current standard for lockdowns now appears to be:

Anything vaguely enjoyable: Banned or severely curtailed.
Anything dull and will-sapping: Carry on as normal (with a mask).

Yes I think its fairly obvious work is being prioritised over someone's tourist holiday. I wonder why?

I personally think there's a lot of online experts who have been unfairly criticising virologists as if they know better or as if they are seeing the virologists are not. The fact is like most public policy the virologists give a series of options to politicians, the politicians decide based on what to prioritise.

One of the major issues Europe has had was a lack of border infrastructure to enable us to properly monitor the spread of the virus across borders. Island nations with the only realistic access being airports have in contrast been extremely effective at countering the virus. What a ludicrous idea that we should allow half of Europe to go skiing, mix with each other and then go back to their home countries because its their middle class routine and because Austria, in almost Tender-like fashion these days, becomes all parochial and whiny over the fact their tourism season is going down the toilet (where was their solidarity with Spain, whose economy is getting wiped out by lack of tourism too)

Right now most travel should be strictly for work placements, and reuniting family. Not going on a ski jolly.

I sometimes really wonder what the reaction had been like if we had a virus that resembled SARS with the spreading capacity of Covid. Our total lack of discipline and common sense and our attraction to atharaxia on this continent has exposed us in the face of this virus. Let's hope we get a grip.

[President Johnson]

Moderna today applied for final emergency vaccine approval at the responsible EU agency. It's expected the final stamp of approval will be given in a very short period of time. Vaccination here in Germany is expected to begin in January at latest, perhaps even in early December.

The newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung estimates that vaccination will reach a level for herd immunity at the end of 2021, give or take a few months. Meanwhile, more German states are setting up concrete plans for vaccinations to get as many people through as fast as possible. My state of Baden-Württemberg estimates they could do about a million per month. With a population of just over 11 million, late 2021 is a realistic goal.

[Knives]

Today is 32 days without a single case. Lockdowns work when you do them right. Very happy to be living in Australia.

[Zinneke]

A leading Fidesz MEP was caught using his parliamentary immunity to escape a fine for violating Belgian lockdown rules by having a 25-man gay orgy in a bar right in front of a Brussels police station, as you do.

[CumbrianLefty]

A leading Fidesz MEP was caught using his parliamentary immunity to escape a fine for violating Belgian lockdown rules by having a 25-man gay orgy in a bar right in front of a Brussels police station, as you do.

Had to be them, OF COURSE it did

Did he claim it was all the fault of George Soros afterwards?

[Zinneke]

A leading Fidesz MEP was caught using his parliamentary immunity to escape a fine for violating Belgian lockdown rules by having a 25-man gay orgy in a bar right in front of a Brussels police station, as you do.

Had to be them, OF COURSE it did

Did he claim it was all the fault of George Soros afterwards?

Given he apparently tried to escape from the window I think he was in too much of a rush to comment on the issue

[Mike88]

A leading Fidesz MEP was caught using his parliamentary immunity to escape a fine for violating Belgian lockdown rules by having a 25-man gay orgy in a bar right in front of a Brussels police station, as you do.

Had to be them, OF COURSE it did

Did he claim it was all the fault of George Soros afterwards?

Given he apparently tried to escape from the window I think he was in too much of a rush to comment on the issue

2020 go home, you're drunk.

[palandio]

As always on Tuesdays the new RKI report has numbers on the age distribution of cases in Germany. Interestingly they changed the age groups from last week's reports, but it doesn't matter because they are reporting all numbers since the beginning of reporting in every (Tuesday's) report:

Week 40-48:

Weekly COVID-19 incidence, all age groups:
19 -- 31 -- 51 -- 90 -- 134 -- 151 -- 154 -- 154 -- 146

80-84:
10 -- 14 -- 26 -- 56 -- 86 -- 104 -- 115 -- 132 -- 142

85-89:
10 -- 20 -- 36 -- 73 -- 114 -- 145 -- 179 -- 214 -- 253

90+:
14 -- 22 -- 52 -- 107 -- 178 -- 208 -- 279 -- 371 -- 412

So there's still growth in the oldest age groups which is bad. Weekly death numbers in Germany will continue to rise, although at a slightly lower pace.

[Mike88]

Portugal update:

General Health Department (DGS) chairwoman, Graça Freitas, is infected with Covid-19. The Health minister and her Secretary of State were tested and are waiting for the results in confinement. All DGS press conferences were canceled for the moment.

[Silent Hunter]

Pfizer vaccine approved in the UK.

[Mike88]

Pfizer vaccine approved in the UK.

For the rest of Europe, the vaccine will only be approved after Christmas.

[Samof94]

Pfizer vaccine approved in the UK.

For the rest of Europe, the vaccine will only be approved after Christmas.

Where’s Canada in the vaccine approval???

[CumbrianLefty]

Pfizer vaccine approved in the UK.

Good news, and come the new year we should have more than one vaccine to choose from.

[President Johnson]

News just broke the German partial lockdown will be extended to January 10, though there over Christmas some rules aren't as strict. Saxony and the city of Nuremberg are going to a full lockdown due skyrocketing infections in recent weeks. People only permitted to leave their homes for work and essential errands (supermarket, doctor etc.).

Yesterday set a tragic new record with close to 500 deaths.

[Tender Branson]

News just broke the German partial lockdown will be extended to January 10, though there over Christmas some rules aren't as strict. Saxony and the city of Nuremberg are going to a full lockdown due skyrocketing infections in recent weeks. People only permitted to leave their homes for work and essential errands (supermarket, doctor etc.).

Yesterday set a tragic new record with close to 500 deaths.

We had 120.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The number of new cases per day is now falling again in Italy (of course it is still incredibly high), and the number of active cases and deaths per day may be starting decreasing just now. Let's hope.

[Mike88]

Portugal: The government announced that the Covid vaccines will arrive during the beginning of 2021, and they will be free and optional. Around 22 million doses will be available and can only be taken in the NHS. The government will announce tomorrow the full details of the vaccine plan and the logistics of the plan will be known in the end of the December.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Through the liberal use of extensive micro-managing German politicians have made it possible that nobody really has any clue anymore what kind of social gatherings are allowed around here... in particular people who don't follow the news that closely, judging from my personal experience.





In the neighbouring states of Berlin and Brandenburg, five people from two households are allowed to gather from 12/1 to 12/22.

In Berlin, five people irrespective of the number of households are allowed to gather from 12/23 to 1/1. In the surrounding Brandenburg, it's ten people irrespective of the number of households in the period from 12/23 to 12/27. In both these cases, children until age of 14 are exempted from and not included in that upper limit of five/ten people.

From 12/28 to 01/01, five people from two households are allowed to gather again in Brandenburg, while in the same period the rule of five people irrespective of the number of households is retained for Berlin.

Got it?

It would probably be impossible the put the existing rules for all 16 states into a single chart. And of course, over the holidays we will have people travelling all over the country from one state to another...

[Mike88]

Portugal update:

According to the meeting, this morning, between Health specialists and government/opposition members, 15-20% of the Portuguese population had, probably, contact with the virus. Details of the vaccine plan were also revealed: Almost 1 million vaccines will be given starting January in the 1st phase for health workers, nursing care workers and patients plus people with heart and respiratory diseases. The 2nd phase will be for people above 65 years old and people above 50 with defined pathologies. The 3rd phase is for the rest of the population.

Restrictions will also be relaxed a bit during Christmas, but details are yet to be announced.

[President Johnson]

Italy reports new record in deaths: 993 people lost their life yesterday. Actually worse than in spring during the first wave.

Meanwhile, counties in my homestate of Baden-Württemberg with more than 200 new infections per week and 100k will impose a total lockdown from 9 p.m. to 5. p.m. That means people are not allowed to leave their homes during that time. That affects the cities Mannheim and Pforzheim, among others. My parents actually live near Pforzheim, but the measure only applies to the city itsself.