International COVID-19 Megathread

[Silent Hunter]

That you can quickly end up with herd immunity if you're willing to have a lot of deaths in one go?

[DabbingSanta]

That you can quickly end up with herd immunity if you're willing to have a lot of deaths in one go?

No point dragging it out... The lockdowns were originally for "flattening the curve", so that health care systems would not be overwhelmed, not "until there's a vaccine" like everyone is pushing for now.

[Silent Hunter]

If you lift the lockdown too quickly, the virus comes straight back.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Sweden: 0 deaths on July 31st, significant decline in cases and deaths from peak despite no lockdown or mandatory mask rules. Media is totally silent now. It really makes you think and challenge the mainstream narrative.

That is interesting. Regardless of opinion, the situation in Sweden provides objective data from a differing method or template for dealing with the virus.

Melbourne has gone in the opposite direction with the Premier announcing a "state of disaster" in Victoria.

It seems a little over the top because the US has 1,000 deaths per day and Victoria has 7.

As one of our coldest cities, Melbourne has just gone into a tight socially restrictive lockdown as they cannot control the community spread.

[parochial boy]

I think people just like to use Sweden to prove what they already think - iirc, they, like, well basically everywhere in Europe saw a huge proportion (majority?) of their deaths in care homes. That speaks to a huge political failure in its own right; but it does make me feel reasonably hopeful that now that the situation with PPE has been mostly resolved / people being less dumb about the way care homes are organised (and generally better treatment options becoming available + protective equipment for medical staff + testing being widely available), that an eventual second wave will fall well short of what happened in the spring.

Despite the panics about rising cases - they are still rises that are nowhere near the explosions that happened in March; and places like Portugal seem to give some hope that they can be brought under control.

[Mike88]

Despite the panics about rising cases - they are still rises that are nowhere near the explosions that happened in March; and places like Portugal seem to give some hope that they can be brought under control.

Yes, the situation here is improving quite well. Today was the first day, since mid March, that no Covid related deaths were registered and new cases were just 106, the lowest number since May. Portugal has experienced a "slow burn" trend rather than waves.

In Portugal, around 40% of all deaths were in care homes. Spain has the highest rate 72%, while the UK has the lowest, 16%.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Sweden immunity levels most likely around 30% of the population.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/87812

"...a study by the Karolinska Institute and Karolinska University Hospital recently found that about 30% of people with mild or asymptomatic COVID showed T-cell-mediated immunity to the virus, even though they tested negative for antibodies."

"This figure is [more than] twice as high as the previous antibody tests, meaning that the public immunity to COVID-19 is probably much higher than what antibody studies have suggested."

That means Sweden has around 30-40% of the population running with some form of immunity.

Even though they suffered higher rates of infection and mortality rates to begin with, it will be interesting to see if Sweden can keep those numbers down in December-January.

Winter is coming.

[President Johnson]

Amidst a continuing flre-up of cases in Germany, 20,000 anti-lockdown and anti-vaccination protestors went to the streets of Berlin yesterday to express their outrage against Bill Gates or something. The protest was eventually broken up by the police because nobody cared to wear masks or keep distance to their fellow protestors, despite being urged so by the authorities.

My personal opinion: Of course you are free to oppose a hypothetical second lockdown and wholeheartedly embrace the Swedish coronavirus policies, but these people don't seem to be willing to do anything to actually prevent another lockdown themselves. They fail to understand that the key to Sweden's response was based on personal responibility and they refuse to act responsibly. This is because there is unfortunately a huge intersection between people who oppose any anti-coronavirus measures and people who believe that the coronavirus is totally harmless and that there's a government conspiracy to hide that "fact".

These people and their anti-intellectualism are desperate. I mean, Germany is one of the best countries to live in and with, despite some flaws, one of the best healthcare systems in the world. So far, the country got through the pandemic with far less deaths and economic disstress compared to others and they complain about wearing a mask for something like half an hour while they go into a store or ride the bus. Sometimes you could assume we're actually living too well.

[FrancoAgo]

Italian study on 64,660 people (a fail were anticipated 150,000) preliminary report
show around a 2.5% of population with antibody presence
regional variations from 0.3% in Sicilia and Sardegna to 7.5% in Lombardia
here the link, in italian, http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_notizie_4998_0_file.pdf

[President Johnson]

Germany yesterday for the first time in months has reported over 1,000 new cases a day. Experts are still cautious to call it a second wave. If anything, a more flat one so far.

Also, some states and municipalities have increased fees for violating the mandatory mask wearing in stores and public transportation.

[Tender Branson]

Germany yesterday for the first time in months has reported over 1,000 new cases a day. Experts are still cautious to call it a second wave. If anything, a more flat one so far.

Also, some states and municipalities have increased fees for violating the mandatory mask wearing in stores and public transportation.

Nothing unusual.

Probably a lot of Germans brought it back from their vacation in Austria (there's a lot of them here right now) and we Austrians in turn got it from people who were vacationing in the Balkans the last few weeks.

Therefore, we already had a 2nd mini wave starting 1.5 months ago, while the one in Germany is only starting now.

Anyway, our 2nd mini wave seems to be going down again (active cases dropped from 1.620 to 1.300 the past few days).

[Silent Hunter]

I was planning a trip to Bavaria before all this started too...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany yesterday for the first time in months has reported over 1,000 new cases a day. Experts are still cautious to call it a second wave. If anything, a more flat one so far.

In Berlin, all three "Corona warning lights" are still green and the base reproduction number is at 0.76, so who knows what the hell is going on.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to German health minister Jens Spahn, 2.0% to 2.5% of returning vacationers who have been tested on coronavirus have tested positive, while the number for the remaning general population is at 1.0%.

[parochial boy]

It’s probably less of a problem in the big countries with powerful leagues with lots of TV money, but the professional football and hockey teams are starting to howl with rage that they need to start letting normal-ish crowds back at matches. Their income consists virtually entirely of gate money, so the risk of another 6-12 months of maximum crowds of 1’000 could (so they say) very possibly kill off professional sport entirely in Switzerland

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to German health minister Jens Spahn, 2.0% to 2.5% of returning vacationers who have been tested on coronavirus have tested positive, while the number for the remaning general population is at 1.0%.

In Germany, there have been first calls to reinstitute travel bans to certain foreign countries. New infections are at 1,147 today.

[Zinneke]

It’s probably less of a problem in the big countries with powerful leagues with lots of TV money, but the professional football and hockey teams are starting to howl with rage that they need to start letting normal-ish crowds back at matches. Their income consists virtually entirely of gate money, so the risk of another 6-12 months of maximum crowds of 1’000 could (so they say) very possibly kill off professional sport entirely in Switzerland

Belgian clubs are facing a similar problem. They are also heavily reliant on transfer fees to cover costs and the market is for sure going to dry up.

I'm  not expecting to be inside a stadium until 2021. Extremely sad but popping the modern football bubble is probably better than more debt.

[parochial boy]

It’s probably less of a problem in the big countries with powerful leagues with lots of TV money, but the professional football and hockey teams are starting to howl with rage that they need to start letting normal-ish crowds back at matches. Their income consists virtually entirely of gate money, so the risk of another 6-12 months of maximum crowds of 1’000 could (so they say) very possibly kill off professional sport entirely in Switzerland

Belgian clubs are facing a similar problem. They are also heavily reliant on transfer fees to cover costs and the market is for sure going to dry up.

I'm  not expecting to be inside a stadium until 2021. Extremely sad but popping the modern football bubble is probably better than more debt.

The worst offenders are probably the best placed to come out of this though unfortunately. At least with the Super League, once you've dodged the flying bricks and the tear gas, you do get some semblance of authenticity.

The bubble's probably already popping anyway, the clubs are killing the goose that laid the golden egg by chasing the money and selling TV rights to obscure pay TV channels like Teleclub or BeIN sports or whoever - as if you can keep things going when you deliberately sabotage your own TV audience.

[Middle-aged Europe]

German health minister Jens Spahn: The healthcare system can handle around 1.000 new infections per day.

Also: We've learned enough from the first lockdown that a second lockdown in the same manner wouldn't be necessary, primarily regional measures would be more likely.

[CumbrianLefty]

A few amateur level football clubs in England have already gone bust, more are likely to follow.

[Hnv1]

A few amateur level football clubs in England have already gone bust, more are likely to follow.

Anyone noteworthy?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Willingness to get vaccinated against coronavirus in Germany, across parties (left: yes, right: no).





Opinion on the economic state of the country, across parties (left: good, right: bad).

[CumbrianLefty]

A few amateur level football clubs in England have already gone bust, more are likely to follow.

Anyone noteworthy?

Droylsden FC are one of the higher profile examples thus far, but there are likely to be more.

[Tender Branson]

54% of Austrians want to vaccinate themselves against COVID, if available - 37% not:



Green-voters are the most in favour, FPÖ-voters most against.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-zealand-coronavirus-100-days-no-new-cases/

There have been no new cases of the coronavirus due to community transmission in New Zealand in 100 days, the country's Ministry of Health reported on Sunday. The news came the same weekend the United States surpassed 5 million confirmed cases of the disease, according to data collected by Johns Hopkins University.


New Zealand's director-general of Health, Dr. Ashley Bloomfield, thanked those who have been tested and the people doing the testing for contributing to the success. However, Bloomfield said the country cannot become complacent amid the pandemic.

"Achieving 100 days without community transmission is a significant milestone, however, as we all know, we can't afford to be complacent," Bloomfield said, in a Ministry of Health news release. "We have seen overseas how quickly the virus can re-emerge and spread in places where it was previously under control, and we need to be prepared to quickly stamp out any future cases in New Zealand."

New Zealand has had a total of 1,219 confirmed cases of COVID-19.