International COVID-19 Megathread

[palandio]

Did Sweden get it right?

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-01/coronavirus-update-covid19-australia-european-union-nick-kyrgios/12408186

The video is doom and gloom, but i actually prefer Sweden's response. The main issue they have is that their neighbours chose a different strategy and have now put them in a bubble.

There is a lot to like about their response. It offered a lot of information for researching the virus. They will come out of it sooner. Sweden did not overwhelm their hospitals. They did not disrupt their life as much.

Australia looks better but we have not had it yet, so for that reason i would prefer the Sweden model.

Sweden: 68,451 infections, 5,333 deaths

Denmark: 12,768 infections, 605 deaths

Norway: 8,887 infections, 250 deaths

Finland: 7,214 infections, 328 deaths

But these numbers are missing the point. Yes, it probably was a prudent decision to go for suppression of the virus in the early phase because "Better safe than sorry" and in the meantime we know a lot more about the virus. The question is which one of the following is a sustainable long-term strategy:

1. Develop and distribute one or more vaccines soon
2. Try worldwide suppression of the virus (without vaccines)
3. Keep measures and insecurity in place for an indefinite time, because "If we give up now, the second wave will hit us hard and everything we did so far will have been in vain"
4. Let the virus run through with mitigation
5. Maybe you can come up with other good strategies

I think that the governments of most Western European countries (e.g. Germany) have sufficient information to be optimistic about option 1, because that is the best explanation of their actions.

Option 2 might have been an option in early January. After all SARS1 and MERS were suppressed, too. The difference being of course that COVID-19 is more difficult to detect and is already prevalent all over the globe. Hence this option has become unrealistic for the time being.

Option 3 is quite popular, but the long-term costs (not just economically) would probably exceed any damage that the virus could possibly do.

Which leaves option 4. While I still hope that the virus can be suppressed (possibly with vaccines) soon, we might sooner or later have to accept that most of us will get it. This is an option that is still open and the experiences of other countries will show us what to expect at worst and what to learn for better mitigation.

In my opinion it is inadequate to compare different approaches on COVID-19 just by one number ("number of people killed by COVID-19 until now") when one approach is designed to keep this number down, while the other approach is designed to optimize a wider set of variables. And while it makes sense to compare Sweden to its Scandinavian neighbors, this comparison makes Sweden look particularly bad. Isn't it interesting that with a comparably liberal approach they didn't do worse than the UK, Belgium, Spain, Italy or the Netherlands? How will our numbers look if at some point we have to decide for the Swedish way? What will it cost (not only economically) to avoid the Swedish way permanently?

[Silent Hunter]

Those five countries arguably failed to protect their most vulnerable in care homes and hospitals; this resulted in a lot more deaths. However, on the flip side, you can't die twice and with those people already dead or (possibly) immune, they might be less vulnerable to a second wave.

[palandio]

Those five countries arguably failed to protect their most vulnerable in care homes and hospitals; this resulted in a lot more deaths.

Care homes and hospitals are of course naturally prone to the spread of infectious diseases, both because of the way they function and the vulnerable people in them. COVID-19 pitilessly revealed inadequate protection measures. The question is how difficult the protection is in an environment were the virus is widespread. Is it possible (with enough preparation) to effectively shield care homes and hospitals from a dangerous environment?

However, on the flip side, you can't die twice and with those people already dead or (possibly) immune, they might be less vulnerable to a second wave.

Yes, still a weak consolation. That's not the way you would want to protect yourself from a second wave if you could choose.

[Silent Hunter]

Discharging people from hospitals into care homes without Covid-19 tests didn't exactly help and some of the care home industry isn't exactly a paragon of good care.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The daily new infections in Germany have returned to a figure below 500, as it was the case prior to the Gütersloh outbreak. Situation seems on its way back to "normal".

The main concern is that a similar "hotspot" outbreak may come in the future where the authorities don't succeed in containing it, making it the starting point for a second infection wave. Whether this concern is justified remains to be seen.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Anyone watching South Africa?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

Those are the steepest curves i have seen thus far.

Given that 21% of the adult population of South Africa has AIDS, this is going to get ugly.



The citizens below breeding age in the heart of this HIV epidemic who are infected with Corona Virus will be some of the very few human beings on Earth facing evolutionary pressures.

It will literally become survival of the fittest if this virus gets red hot in those areas.

[Tender Branson]

Austria update:

3 out of the last 4 days had 100+ new cases (incl. today's preliminary numbers).

There is a massive, ongoing cluster in Upper Austria involving an Evangelical Church.

Active cases in Upper Austria have swollen from a low 20 a week ago to more than 300 today.

While shopping today, I saw hundreds of people on the streets (99% of them without masks) and a massive amount of German and Dutch tourists coming in.

At least here, it's business-as-usual like before the virus hit and for a further spread ... this could be pretty bad developments.

[Mike88]

UK's choice of excluding Portugal from the safe tourist air bridges is creating furious reactions from the government. Costa tweeted this:

https://twitter.com/antoniocostapm/status/1279118619511791622

The foreign minister has also accused the UK of an "absurd" and "unjust" decision with absolutely no rationality citting the examples of Madeira and Azores, which have basically no cases.

[Silent Hunter]

Madeira and the Azores are being exempted from the FCO's "do not travel except essential list", but not the quarantine list.

Also, he's using the total cases, not the current level. Portugal's current case rate is close to 50 per 100,000 whereas as the UK's is around 30.

https://covid19-country-overviews.ecdc.europa.eu/#1_introduction

[Mike88]

Madeira and the Azores are being exempted from the FCO's "do not travel except essential list", but not the quarantine list.

Also, he's using the total cases, not the current level. Portugal's current case rate is close to 50 per 100,000 whereas as the UK's is around 30.

https://covid19-country-overviews.ecdc.europa.eu/#1_introduction

Yes, Madeira and Azores are being exempted, but the minister is criticizing the quarantine, I believe. Nonetheless, this is what the government is saying, but you are right about the numbers. The issue is that expectations were so high around here a few weeks ago and Costa and his government seem to have lost control of the situation.

[Tender Branson]

113 new cases until 6am today, using the hourly tracking numbers from the Health Ministry.

That’s the biggest daily increase in cases in Austria since mid-April.

The good thing:

Unlike in April, the newly infected are young and middle-aged, which means there are hardly any hospitalizations required.

In fact, hospitalizations and ICU occupancy are at a record low: just 70 people are at a hospital right now and only 7 in an ICU (we have an ICU capacity of 3.500 beds).

Deaths are averaging at just 1 case per day.

As long as these people from new regional clusters are quarantined and it doesn’t spread to retirement homes, it’s all OK.

[Tender Branson]

Austrian Interior Minister Karl Nehammer (ÖVP) once trolled the City of Vienna for their high active case number relative to other states and told the city health officials (SPÖ) to „accept his help“ because they „cannot deal with the virus or contain it“.

As of today, the ÖVP-governed state of Upper Austria has surpassed Vienna in total number of active cases and now has 2x the cases per capita ...

So far, he has not trolled his ÖVP colleagues there ...

[Tender Branson]

Another 115 new cases in the last 24 hours.

But despite Upper Austria adding 300+ cases over the past week, hospitalisations have not changed at all and remain very low.

Virtually all of those 300+ are at home with just mild sympthoms or none at all.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Higher Administrative Court for North Rhine-Westphalia has ordered to lift the lockdown for the county of Gütersloh.

Gütersloh has by now dropped under the "50 infections per 100,000 inhabitants within the last seven days" threshold which necessitates a lockdown - although only barely.

[President Johnson]

Some states in Germany, particularly in the North, are discussing to end mandatory mask wearing in supermarkets and public transportation. Others like Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg are opposed. I dislike the masks as well, but I'm opposed to lift these rules now. The virus is still here and I intend to keep the numbers relatively low (about 500 new infections a day nationwide).

Also, a German study today came out that alcohol consumption rose as a result of the pandemic. In a survey of 3000 people, over 35% said their consumption has increased over recent months. Despite not going out to larger gatherings on weekends, I have to confess I'm drinking more beer than last year. Still not critical as I don't drink everyday, but remarkable.

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kurz once said that if new daily cases hit 100+ on a few consecutive days (like it was the case the past few days), masks would make a return.

But yesterday, he said that they will "closely watch the Upper Austria cluster" and "no additional measures are planned right now".

Anyway, new cases today were down to 46 ...

[Tender Branson]

Some states in Germany, particularly in the North, are discussing to end mandatory mask wearing in supermarkets and public transportation. Others like Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg are opposed. I dislike the masks as well, but I'm opposed to lift these rules now. The virus is still here and I intend to keep the numbers relatively low (about 500 new infections a day nationwide).

I have not gone shopping with a mask in more than a month now (I stopped right after the mandatory wearing ended).

99% of shoppers don't wear one.

[Silent Hunter]

I wear a mask on public transport as mandated and carry one with me when out; for one thing if I start coughing, I'll put it on to avoid alarming people.

Otherwise, they're not exactly comfortable in hot weather.

[President Johnson]

For the first time in weeks, Greece is reporting new cases. Most of them from Serbs who came in as tourists. Greece has closed entry for Serbs now. Otherwise, the Greek government and people have done a good job in slowing the spread, as there are few cases and deaths compared to other countries.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Look like Australia is ready to join the party:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/06/asia/australia-victoria-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html

Victoria had hotel quarantine for returning international travel.

Turns out the security guards who were supposed to lock down the hotel were in the rooms partying and having sex with the guests.

And then the security guards worked at different hotels and gave it all the other security guards.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Some states in Germany, particularly in the North, are discussing to end mandatory mask wearing in supermarkets and public transportation. Others like Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg are opposed. I dislike the masks as well, but I'm opposed to lift these rules now. The virus is still here and I intend to keep the numbers relatively low (about 500 new infections a day nationwide).

The discussion seems to have been shelved for now, after invention from the federal level. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, which initially started that debate, has extended the mask wearing until at least August 4.

[Roblox]

Bolso got it (again?)
https://twitter.com/CNNBrasil/status/1280261911582474240
Força, Corona

Is it just me or is Bolsonaro basically in and out of the hospital constantly since he got elected? There are such an insane number of pictures of him in a hospital web or garb looking unwell.

[CumbrianLefty]

But........he does press-ups and everything!

(comparisons with a certain other leader can certainly be made)

[Middle-aged Europe]

I know this is evil from me, but just imagine Trump trying to explain COVID away if Bolsonaro were to die from it.

[Tender Branson]

Upper Austria is re-introducing mandatory mask-wearing in virtually all areas of daily life:

https://orf.at/stories/3172600

Starting Thursday.