International COVID-19 Megathread

[Silent Hunter]

A routine COVID-19 test at the Wiesenhof meat factory in Wildeshausen (county of Oldenburg, Lower Saxony) resuted in 23 positives out of 50 tested. Now all 1100 employees will be tested.

Be interesting to see how many of them are symptomatic.

[Middle-aged Europe]

About half a kilometer from there I live in Berlin-Friedrichshain there is now also an quarantined housing block with 44 confirmed infections. Yesterday I even went to a nearby hardware store there. Ain't that swell...

(https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/news/bezirksamt-bestaetigt-corona-ausbruch-in-friedrichshain-li.89255)

[Tender Branson]

The Rotary cluster here in Salzburg seems to be contained.

22 actively infected and about 200 people in quarantine.

All government members (one had indirect contact with infected people) tested negative.

[Mike88]

Portugal update: (24 June)

Total cases: 40,104 (+367)
Active cases: 12,478 (+110)
Deaths: 1,543 (+3)
Recoveries: 26,083 (+254)
Patients in ICU: 73 (+1)
Patients hospitalized: 429 (-12)

Total cases by region: (change from yesterday)

17,527 Lisbon and Tagus Valley (+302)
17,339 North (+10)
  4,042 Center (+28)
     552 Algarve (+16)
     406 Alentejo (+9)
     146 Azores (+2)
       92 Madeira (nc)

1,102,066 tests conducted since March 1st.

Politicians also met for a meeting with specialists, and things didn't go that well:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1275847586818252804

Meeting at Infarmed. Experts contradict Costa's speech that tests explain everything

The prime minister sought to confirm that the increase in cases in Lisbon and the Tagus Valley is due to an increase in tests. Epidemiologists have withdrawn this thesis, safeguarded that it does not explain the whole reality and said that the problem is real. Second wave contagion hypothesis exists.

António Costa appeared at the fortnightly meeting of Infarmed, which brings together specialists, distinguished figures of State and party leaders, willing to prove the thesis that the increase in cases in the region of Lisbon and the Tagus Valley was due to the increase in testing capacity, an an argument that the Government, in several voices, has used to criticize the reservations raised by other European countries. But the epidemiologists present raised reservations about this argument: the increase in tests does not justify all cases. The problem is real, the average number of hospitalized patients has increased, the number of people in intensive care as well and the region may be starting a second wave of contagions.

At the end of the meeting, what was noticed is that a new political moment began: the pandemic and the data itself became a cause for partisan struggle: PSD, CDS, Bloco and PAN criticized in the end, with a different speech from the President of the Republic regarding the content of the meeting. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa kept the line he drew, always at the side of the Government: at the top of power there can be no public disagreement about the pandemic.

“The experts ended up denying the prime minister. In an elegant way, but they did it ”, tells the Expresso source who was present at the meeting. “The environment was not the best after the interventions by Baltazar Nunes [National School of Public Health] and Rita Sá Machado [Directorate-General for Health]”, notes another source. “He tried to put the hypothesis in an almost affirmative way. But it ended up upset, ”says another participant.

(...)

There was another issue taken up by epidemiologists: there is, in fact, a decrease in the number of tests carried out in the last 15 days, which experts attributed to the holiday period. A fact that reinforces the news advanced Tuesday by Jornal de Negócios: according to official data released by health authorities the average number of diagnostic tests for covid-19 performed daily has fallen 24% since the beginning of the reopening of the economy, on May 4. More: Portugal is currently doing an average of 1 test per 1,000 inhabitants, but on 18 May it was doing 1.5 tests per 1,000 inhabitants.

The Prime Minister did not hide any disgust with the lack of available data and even criticized information on testing, namely the fact that the Ricardo Jorge Institute only compiles data from the NHS and not from private laboratories - which many companies mainly construction companies had appealed.

(...)

[President Johnson]

Germany's base reproduction number has spiked to 2.76 - a similar level as in March.

Nevertheless, the Robert Koch Institute says not to worry because the recent spike is a result of highly localized mass outbreaks in Gütersloh, Göttingen, and Berlin-Neukölln which are being contained and is therefore not associated with a nationwide rise in infection numbers.

Leading virologist Christian Drosten now says there might be a "totally worse situation" a month or two from now if we don't act carefully. My general sense is that a lot of people are getting more lax lately since they're tired of this whole stuff. The media and some politicians also made the impression it would be over after Easter, then after summer vacation, which won't be the case.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany's base reproduction number has spiked to 2.76 - a similar level as in March.

Nevertheless, the Robert Koch Institute says not to worry because the recent spike is a result of highly localized mass outbreaks in Gütersloh, Göttingen, and Berlin-Neukölln which are being contained and is therefore not associated with a nationwide rise in infection numbers.

Leading virologist Christian Drosten now says there might be a "totally worse situation" a month or two from now if we don't act carefully. My general sense is that a lot of people are getting more lax lately since they're tired of this whole stuff. The media and some politicians also made the impression it would be over after Easter, then after summer vacation, which won't be the case.

I'm seeing more and more people on public transportation who don't wear masks since maybe about a week. Today I was on a bus with 50% non-mask wearers. A totally impossible sight a month ago.

[PSOL]

Peru giving up on virus measures in face of sinking economy

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg City's recent Rotary Club Cluster has come to a standstill today.

No further infections reported.

24 active cases in the state now (by district: 10 Sbg.-City, 9 Flachgau, 4 Tennengau, 1 Pongau, 0 Pinzgau, 0 Lungau)

4 of the 24 are in hospitals, but not in the ICU.

https://www.salzburg.gv.at/themen/gesundheit/corona-virus

[Mike88]

19 parishes in the Lisbon area, with a total of 700,000 inhabitants, will go back into confinement to stop the spread of the virus in Lisbon:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1276261391339528193

LISBON (Reuters) - People in several parts of Greater Lisbon will have to go back to staying at home from next week as Portuguese authorities deal with a worrying wave of coronavirus on the city’s outskirts, the government announced on Thursday.

Those living in the affected areas of the capital - a total of 19 civil parishes that do not include downtown Lisbon - will be allowed to leave home only to buy essential goods such as food or medication, and to travel to and from work.

“The only effective way to control the pandemic is to stay home whenever possible, keep physical distance at all times and always maintain protection and hygiene standards,” Prime Minister Antonio Costa told a news conference.

The measure will be in place from July 1 until July 14 and it will then be reviewed, according to a government document.

In the designated 19 areas, there will be a limit of five people for gatherings, compared to 10 in Greater Lisbon as a whole and 20 for the rest of the nation.

Thursday’s announcement came after the government introduced restrictions on Tuesday that included an order for most commercial spaces in Greater Lisbon, excluding restaurants, to shut at 8 p.m. each day.

(...)

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg City's recent Rotary Club Cluster has come to a standstill today.

No further infections reported.

24 active cases in the state now (by district: 10 Sbg.-City, 9 Flachgau, 4 Tennengau, 1 Pongau, 0 Pinzgau, 0 Lungau)

4 of the 24 are in hospitals, but not in the ICU.

https://www.salzburg.gv.at/themen/gesundheit/corona-virus

2nd day in a row with no additional cluster cases:

https://www.salzburg.gv.at/themen/gesundheit/corona-virus

The number remains at 24.

[Tender Branson]

Austria-wide overview:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Austria#Timeline

During the past 1-2 weeks, there was some kind of 2nd "mini-wave" ... active cases up to 476 as of today (it was already as low as 375 a while ago).

But nothing dramatic.

It's only because there are ca. 33 new cases daily on average, while there are only 26 recoveries on average.

Hospitalisations are at a low.

[palandio]

Most of the new hotspots all over Western Europe bear a certain resemblance:

In Mondragone (near Naples) a housing complex was put under quarantine after ca. 50 farmhands from Bulgaria had been tested positive. The housing complex is home to Italian squatters and illegal immigrants as well. The farmhands have already turned out to protest and rising tension with their squatter housemates and with the surrounding population has lead to additional police being sent to Mondragone.

The outbreak also sheds light on the "caporalato" version of subcontracting where agents ("caporali") who are responsible for recruiting, housing and transport sell their fellow countrymen as workforce. Well, quite similar to the recruiting model at the Tönnies meat factory in Germany.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Effective tomorrow, the city of Berlin does the big Corona shuffle.

All remaining "contact restrictions" are lifted, meaning I could theoretically invite thirty people over to my appartment again for a huge party. (In practice - and this is probably also what the state government is gambling on - this is unlikely to happen because with the weather conditions we have right now most people are meeting outside somewhere in a park).

In return, not wearing a mask in public transportation or stores means that you can get fined with 50 to 500 Euros starting tomorrow. It has also been announced that the state police is planning to start conducting controls to that effect.

Qurantine on some virus-affected housing blocks in Berlin-Neukölln has also been lifted.

[Mike88]

Total cases, worldwide, surpassed the 10 million mark today.

The US, Brazil, Russia and India now gather more than 50% of all cases worldwide.

On the good side, more than 54% of all cases are recovered, 5,450,817, and the fatality rate is drooping and is now bellow 5% and continuing a downturn trend.

[PSOL]

We’re on the cusp of 500,000 deaths and it’s only been a few months, with no timetable available for an introduction of a vaccine. Absolutely terrible.

[Silent Hunter]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a million deaths overall, like in 1968.

[President Johnson]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a million deaths overall, like in 1968.

At this rate, it might be more than that. Vaccine won't be available until summer 2021, I guess. Remember that we not just need to find one, which is not even certain, it also needs to be produced en masse. Even if there is one by fall or Christmas, it will take some more months to get to actual herd immunity.

[Silent Hunter]

At a IFR of 0.5% and assuming that 60% of humanity were to get it in some form or another, that would be around 25 million people. In practice, it's likely to be rather less than that considering the relative demographics of various countries, the likelihood of improved treatments being developed and quarantine measures.

Five million might not be out of the question, but it could be spread over a few years.

[Tender Branson]

Aside from the recent Salzburg cluster (ca. 30 infected), there was also a cluster at a Protestant Church in and around Linz, which bumped up active cases in Upper Austria from about 20 to 100 in the past week.

At the same time, active cases - which were once as low as 370 already a few weeks ago in Austria as a whole - went up to 600 yesterday, but fell to around 580 again today.

[Middle-aged Europe]

After a light flare-up, things seem to normalize again in Germany.

Gütersloh is currently the only German county surpassing the "50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants within the last seven days" threshold at which a regional lockdown is recommended. Situation there is still bad enough to warrant an extension to the lockdown, although the numbers have been improving a little bit. The 2nd place after Gütersloh is occupied by neighbouring Warendorf, although they're below the 50 new infections threshold now.

All meat factories in North Rhine-Westphalia have been ordered to test all their employees twice a week. Clemens Tönnies, CEO of the Tönnies meat company in Gütersloh, has resigned today as chairman of the supervisory board of the Bundesliga soccer team Schalke 04 due to the scandal.

[T'Chenka]

Not sure if it deserves it's own thread (yet):

New H1N1-G4 ("G4 virus / G4 swine flu") with pandemic potential happening in China.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/30/asia/china-swine-flu-pandemic-intl-hnk-scli-scn/index.html

[Silent Hunter]

We've got a local lock-down ourselves now in the city of Leicester after a spike there.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Did Sweden get it right?

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-01/coronavirus-update-covid19-australia-european-union-nick-kyrgios/12408186

The video is doom and gloom, but i actually prefer Sweden's response. The main issue they have is that their neighbours chose a different strategy and have now put them in a bubble.

There is a lot to like about their response. It offered a lot of information for researching the virus. They will come out of it sooner. Sweden did not overwhelm their hospitals. They did not disrupt their life as much.

Australia looks better but we have not had it yet, so for that reason i would prefer the Sweden model.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Did Sweden get it right?

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-01/coronavirus-update-covid19-australia-european-union-nick-kyrgios/12408186

The video is doom and gloom, but i actually prefer Sweden's response. The main issue they have is that their neighbours chose a different strategy and have now put them in a bubble.

There is a lot to like about their response. It offered a lot of information for researching the virus. They will come out of it sooner. Sweden did not overwhelm their hospitals. They did not disrupt their life as much.

Australia looks better but we have not had it yet, so for that reason i would prefer the Sweden model.

Sweden: 68,451 infections, 5,333 deaths

Denmark: 12,768 infections, 605 deaths

Norway: 8,887 infections, 250 deaths

Finland: 7,214 infections, 328 deaths

[Tender Branson]

More than 100 new cases here in the last 24 hours.

The last time this happened was in mid-May (on a single day) and before that in mid-April.

On the other hand, all these recent new cases don't really require hospitalisation - not to mention ICU.

Which probably means those new infections are mostly younger or middle-aged people.