A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL (user search)
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Author Topic: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL  (Read 8827 times)
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« on: January 23, 2020, 03:35:15 AM »
« edited: February 05, 2020, 01:26:42 AM by Old School Republican »

So with Iowa just a a week and a half away I am gonna start a mini TL where I basically predict the direction of how I think the 2020 Primaries and General Election campaign will go .


Format:

I: The Primaries

- The Early States
- Super Tuesday
- Primaries between Super Tuesday and the North East Primaries(If Necessary)
- Rest of Primaries(If Necessary)


II: Conventions(Each Convention will be summarized in one post though)

- VP Selection
- Main Speakers
- Summary of Speeches

III: General Election campaign

- Summarize Main Events of Campaign
- Summarize All the Debates(Each Debate will be one post)
- Battleground Map

IV: Election Night

- Each post will encompass one hour on election night
- Battleground Senate and Gubernatorial Races will be mentioned
- Individual House races won't be mentioned but the projected composition will be mentioned once in each post
- Victory Speeches and Concession Speeches

V: Post Election Night

- The Cabinet of a 2nd Term Trump or 1st term cabinet of the new Democratic President-Elect(Will encompass 3-4 posts)
- If Trump wins a pre-inauguration Press Conference, if Trump loses a Farewell speech




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E: 3.42, S: 2.61

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« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2020, 02:30:38 PM »
« Edited: January 26, 2020, 09:22:12 AM by Stuck with Sanders »

Democratic Primary Results: The Early Four

Iowa Caucus:

Former Vice President Joe Biden 24% 13 Delegates
Senator Bernie Sanders 22% 12 Delegates
Mayor Pete Buttigieg 16% 8 Delegates
Senator Elizabeth Warren 15% 8 Delegates
Senator Amy Klobuchar  10%
Businessman Andrew Yang 9%
Businessman Tom Steyer 2%
All Others 2%


Dropouts after Primary Results: Amy Klobuchar, Michael Bennett


New Hampshire Primary:

Senator Bernie Sanders 34% 11 Delegates
Former Vice President Joe Biden 24% 7 Delegates
Senator Elizabeth Warren 18% 6 Delegates
Mayor Pete Buttigieg 13%
Businessman Andrew Yang 7%
Businessman Tom Steyer 3%
All Others 3%

Drop Outs:  John Delaney, Deval Patrick


Nevada Caucus:

Former Vice President Joe Biden 35% 19 Delegates
Senator Bernie Sanders 33% 17 Delegates
Senator Elizabeth Warren 14%
Mayor Pete Buttigieg 7%
Businessman Andrew Yang 6%
Businessman Tom Steyer 4%
All Others 1%

Drop Outs: Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg


South Carolina Primary:

Former Vice President Joe Biden 63% 39 Delegates
Senator Bernie Sanders 25% 15 Delegates
Businessman Tom Steyer 6%
Businessman Andrew Yang 4%
Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard 1%
All Others 1%


Drop Outs: None


Total Delegate Count:

Former Vice President Joe Biden 78 Delegates
Senator Bernie Sanders 55 Delegates
Senator Elizabeth Warren 14 Delegates
Mayor Pete Buttigieg 8 Delegates





Warren Endorses Senator Bernie Sanders before Super Tuesday while Buttigieg and Klobuchar endorse Former Vice President Joe Biden


Cooper: In a move that could shape Super Tuesday , former Presidential candidate , Senator Elizabeth Warren endorsed Senator Sanders for the Presidency calling him the best candidate to take on Trump and push through a progressive agenda in the White House. Their fued which erupted right before the Iowa Caucuses seemed to have been resolved or else Senator Warren probably would not have endorsed Senator Sanders.

On the other hand Mayor Buttigieg and Senator Klobuchar have also announced their endorsements and they announced that they both will be endorsing Vice President Biden. So at this point it looks like Super Tuesday will be a repeat of 2016 with Biden taking on the role of Secretary Clinton and Senator Sanders taking on his role from 2016 but with one twist of the possibility that Mr.Bloomberg could cut into Vice President Biden's vote on Super Tuesday and Mr.Steyer and Mr.Yang could cut into Senator Sanders's vote.


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E: 3.42, S: 2.61

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« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2020, 03:11:13 PM »

TL idea endorsed. Would actually be interesting to see President Michael Bloomberg.


Thanks , I hope you guys like it and feel free to comment on these results given that it’s a prediction TL and tell me the parts your agree and disagree with this .


Final note is this TL will not be covering the winner’s term so it will end when this TL gets to Jan 19 2021
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« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2020, 04:59:16 PM »
« Edited: January 23, 2020, 05:32:05 PM by Old School Republican »

Looks good, but I'm fairly certain you need 15% to get delegates.

Yeah, the Democrats need a candidate to win 15% of the vote in any state  during a state primary/caucus to get a single delegate. Only the republican system is different.

Ok thanks guys, I will edit that soon .


I wonder though what would happen hypothetically if no candidate reaches the 15% threshold. Would all the delegates be unpledged then
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E: 3.42, S: 2.61

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« Reply #4 on: January 24, 2020, 02:32:39 PM »

Looking forward to it.

Did Bloomberg drop out in your TL? 

No Bloomberg is still in the race, its just that he wasnt on the ballot in the states before Super Tuesday because of the fact that he entered the race after the filing deadline had passed for those 4 states
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« Reply #5 on: January 26, 2020, 01:38:01 AM »
« Edited: January 26, 2020, 01:46:48 AM by Old School Republican »

Former Vice President Joe Biden wins Texas and 7 other contests on Super Tuesday while Senator Bernie Sanders wins California and 6 other contests.



Wolf Blitzer: Before we end our coverage lets recap the night, first by looking at the States Vice President Biden won from East to West


Contests won by Vice President Joe Biden:

Virginia: Biden 44% 50 Delegates, Sanders 28% 32 Delegates, Bloomberg 16% 17 Delegates, Yang 7% , Steyer 3%, Gabbard 1%, All Others 1%

North Carolina: Biden 45% 61 Delegates, Sanders 36% 49 Delegates, Bloomberg 7%, Yang 6%, Steyer 4%, Gabbard 1%, All Others 1%

Tennessee: Biden 62% 45 Delegates, Sanders 26% 19 Delegates, Yang 4%, Bloomberg 3%, Steyer 3%, Gabbard 1%, All Others 1%

Alabama: Biden 66% 40 Delegates, Sanders 19% 12 Delegates, Bloomberg 6%, Yang 5%, Steyer 2%, Gabbard 1%, All Others 1%

Arkansas: Biden 56% 20 Delegates, Sanders 30% 11 Delegates, Bloomberg 5% , Yang 4%, Steyer 2%, Gabbard 2%, All Others 1%

Oklahoma: Biden 45% 19 Delegates, Sanders 43% 18 Delegates, Yang 4%, Bloomberg 3%, Steyer 2%, Gabbard 2%, All Others 1%

Texas: Biden 49% 141 Delegates, Sanders 30% 87 Delegates, Bloomberg 11%, Yang 6%, Steyer 2%, Gabbard 1%, All Others 1%

American Samoa: Biden 55% 4 Delegates, Sanders 20% 1 Delegate, Gabbard 16% 1 Delegate, Steyer 4%, Yang 2%, Bloomberg 2%, Others 1%


Blitzer: Ok Now lets look at the states that Senator Sanders won again from East to West

Contests won by Senator Sanders

Maine: Sanders 61% 18 Delegates, Biden 21% 6 Delegates , Yang 9%, Bloomberg 4%, Seyer 3%, Gabbard 1%, All Others 1%

Vermont: Sanders 81% 16 Delegates, Biden 10%, Yang 4%, Bloomberg 2%, Steyer 1%, Gabbard 1%, All Others 1%

Massachusetts : Sanders 46% 46 Delegates, Biden 29% 29 Delegates, Bloomberg 16% 16 Delegates, Yang 5%, Steyer 2%, Gabbard 1%, All Others 1%

Minnesota: Sanders 44% 43 Delegates, Biden 33% 32 Delegates, Yang 11%, Bloomberg 7%, Steyer 3%, Gabbard 1%, All Others 1%

Colorado: Sanders 45% 38 Delegates, Biden 34% 29 Delegates, Yang 9%, Bloomberg 7%, Steyer 2%, Gabbard 2%, All Others 1%

Utah: Sanders 44% 15 Delegates, Biden 42% 14 Delegates, Yang 8%, Bloomberg 4%, Steyer 2%, Gabbard 1%, All Others 1%

California: Sanders 38% 213 Delegates, Biden 36% 202 Delegates, Bloomberg 10% Yang 8%, Steyer 5%, Gabbard 2%, All Others 1%


Blitzer: Now lets look at the overall map with John King so far


King: I just want people to remember last year everyone was talking about the fact that how different the democratic primary would be to 2016, with so many new candidates such as Harris, Booker, Warren , Beto but the fact is its shaping up to basically be 2016 but even closer with Biden taking the role of Hillary Clinton and Bernie reprising his role from 2016.



Total Delegate Count:

Former Vice President Joe Biden 770 Delegates
Senator Bernie Sanders 673 Delegates
Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg 33 Delegates
Senator Elizabeth Warren 14 Delegates
Mayor Pete Buttigieg 8 Delegates
Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard 1 Delegate


King: In my opinion the nomination will very much well be decided on Super Tuesday II when Illionis and Ohio vote and if Biden wins , its probably over especially with Bloomberg saying if he doesnt win a state by then he will drop out as well.

Blitzer: Talking about drop outs , both Tom Steyer and Tulsi Gabbard have dropped out of the race and Mr.Yang is saying if he doesnt get at least 25% in Michigan he will drop out as well then.

King: I wonder if Mr.Yang drops out after Michigan if Mayor Bloomberg also will drop out then as well
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« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2020, 01:11:52 AM »
« Edited: January 28, 2020, 01:43:01 AM by Old School Republican »

Yang and Bloomberg drop out after poor showing on mini Tuesday making the contest a two race between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.

Blitzer: After poor performances on this mini Tuesday , both Andrew Yang and Michael Bloomberg have dropped out of the race making this now a two way race between Former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders. Now lets look at the states won tonight by Former Vice President Biden from east to west


Contests won by Former Vice President Biden:

Mississippi: Biden 79% 36 Delegates, Bernie 12%, Bloomberg 4%, Yang 3%, Others 1%

Missouri: Biden 46% 34 Delegates, Bernie 45% 34 Delegates, Yang 5%, Bloomberg 3%, Others 1%

North Dakota: Biden 52% 8 Delegates, Bernie 40% 6 Delegates, Yang 6%, Bloomberg 1%, Others 1%


Blitzer: Now lets look at the contests won by Senator Bernie Sanders


Contests won by Senator Bernie Sanders


Michigan: Bernie 43% 65 Delegates, Biden 40% 60 Delegates, Yang 9%, Bloomberg 7%, Others 1%

Idaho: Bernie 60% 13 Delegates, Biden 32% 7 Delegates, Yang 4%, Bloomberg 3%, Others 1%

Washington: Bernie 54% 57 Delegates, Biden 30% 32 Delegates, Bloomberg 9%, Yang 6%, Others 1%

Democrats Abroad : Bernie: 61% 8 Delegates, Biden 33% 5 Delegates, Bloomberg 3%, Yang 2%, Others 1%


Blitzer: Now lets go over to John King to look at the map

King: And here it is



Total Delegate Count:

Former Vice President Joe Biden 952 Delegates
Senator Bernie Sanders 856 Delegates
Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg 33 Delegates
Senator Elizabeth Warren 14 Delegates
Mayor Pete Buttigieg 8 Delegates
Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard 1 Delegate



King: Due to the fact that Mr.Yang didnt have a strong performance in Michigan, a state that many in his campaign thought was tailor made for his type of message is why he dropped out . In response to that , Mayor Bloomberg who exit polls show time and time again takes votes overwhelmingly from Vice President Biden has dropped out because the fact is if he was in the race it would benefit the progressive wing who now will be completely united behind Senator Sanders.

As for tonight , things didnt change much at all and next Tuesday will be a critical turning point because if Vice President Biden can win Ohio and Illinois, it will be very hard for Senator Sanders to win the nomination given how many few big states will be left and one of them being Vice President Biden's 2nd home state, Pennsylvania. If Senator Sanders wins both , he will probably be the favorite moving forward given the map but if they split it well then the nomination battle will be a complete tossup and wont be decided till June.


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« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2020, 05:05:14 PM »

Interesting TL. I think Biden is the nominee in this scenario, I'm not sure yet how he'd do against Trump. My personal opinion is basically the opposite of the conventional wisdom and thinks that he and Warren are the weakest of the top 4, of course being a weak candidate doesn't mean you can't win  but it just makes it harder.

I think the polls are underestimating Biden and the way the Democratic primaries are , the South gives a huge advantage to one candidate which neither Hillary in 08 or Bernie in 16 were able to overcome.

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« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2020, 06:12:55 PM »

Biden greatly expands delegate lead in primaries between Mini Tuesday and Acela Primaries



Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden#2020_presidential_campaign

John King: Going into tomorrow Acela's primaries , Senator Sanders will need a big night if he wants to have a good chance at winning the nomination and the reason is his performance since this became a 2 way race has not been that great and Vice President Biden has greatly expanded his lead.

Here is a summary of those contests since this primary became a 2 person race, and lets first look at the contests Vice President Biden won, from East to West

Contests won by Former Vice President Biden

Puerto Rico: Biden 56% 29 Delegates, Bernie 43% 22 Delegates

Florida: Biden 64% 140 Delegates, Bernie 35% 79 Delegates

Georgia: Biden 69% 73 Delegates, Bernie 30% 32 Delegates

Ohio: Biden 53% 73 Delegates, Bernie 46% 63 Delegates

Illinois: Biden 51% 80 Delegates, Bernie 48% 75 Delegates

Louisiana: Biden 74% 40 Delegates, Bernie 25% 14 Delegates

Arizona: Biden 54% 37 Delegates, Bernie 45% 30 Delegates

Northern Mariana: Biden 55% 4 Delegates, Sanders 44% 2 Delegates

King: Now lets do the same for Senator Sanders

Contests won by Senator Bernie Sanders:

Wisconsin: Bernie 57% 48 Delegates, Biden 42% 36 Delegates

Wyoming: Bernie 53% 8 Delegates, Biden 46% 6 Delegates

Alaska: Bernie 70% 11 Delegates, Biden 29% 4 Delegates

Hawaii: Bernie 74% 18 Delegates, Biden 25% 6 Delegates



King: Now lets look at the overall map and delegate count



Total Delegate Count:

Former Vice President Joe Biden 1553 Delegates
Senator Bernie Sanders 1258 Delegates
Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg 33 Delegates
Senator Elizabeth Warren 14 Delegates
Mayor Pete Buttigieg 8 Delegates
Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard 1 Delegate


King: As you can see now Vice President Biden has a solid 295 Delegate lead currently and needs just 37% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination while Senator Sanders needs around 62%. Now one caveat to that is that the schedule after the Acela primary completely favors Senator Sanders so if he does well tommorow he still will have a chance. Now the question is how well, so lets find out. In the first scenario, lets say Vice President Biden and Senator Sanders split the amount of delegates so out of 663 lets give Vice President Biden 331 Delegates and Senator Sanders 332 , so not an exact split but basically so. That would give Vice President Biden 1884 Delegates and just put him just 106 Delegates short of the nomination. That would mean that Vice President Biden would just need just a little more than 20% of remaining delegates to win the Nomination which almost certainly would happen. So if both Vice President Biden and Senator Sanders split tomorrow, the primary will basically be over.

Now lets look at scenario two and that lets give Senator Sanders 60% of the delegates tomorrow. That would give Senator Sanders a total of 1666 Delegates and he would need then 62%-63% of remaining delegates which would be really possible with the schedule ahead and you could say even probably to happen in that case. Now on the other hand if you just give him 55% which would give 1623 Delegates and then he would need over 70% of the remaining Delegates which would be very unlikely.


So I would say if Vice President Biden wins tomorrow its over, if Senator Sanders has a narrow victory than its most likely over but not totally over and if Senator Sanders can get over that 60% mark then it's anybody's nomination.
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E: 3.42, S: 2.61

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« Reply #9 on: January 30, 2020, 10:08:29 PM »

Despite Defeat in New York , Biden comes out night big winner thanks to large wins in Pennsylvania, Maryland and Deleware



Blitzer: To review the night, lets first look at the states won by Vice President Biden, once again from East to West


Contests won By Former Vice President Biden:

Deleware: Biden 66% 14 Delegates , Bernie 33% 7 Delegates
Maryland: Biden 59% 57 Delegates, Bernie 40% 39 Delegates
Pennsyvnaia: Biden: 60% 113 Delegates  , Bernie 39% 73 Delegates

Blitzer: Now lets do the same thing for Senator Sanders

Contests won by Senator Bernie Sanders:

Rhode Island: Bernie 57% 15 Delegates, Biden 42% 11 Delegates
Connecticut: Bernie 55% 33 Delegates , Biden 44% 27 Delegates
New York: Bernie 53% 147 Delegates, Biden 46% 127 Delegates


Blitzer: Now lets walk over to John King and look at the magic wall , and John despite a win in New York today was not a good day for Senator Sanders

King: No it wasnt, not even close and lets look why , first lets look at the overall map and the overall delegate count



Total Delegate Count:

Former Vice President Joe Biden 1901 Delegates
Senator Bernie Sanders 1572 Delegates
Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg 33 Delegates
Senator Elizabeth Warren 14 Delegates
Mayor Pete Buttigieg 8 Delegates
Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard 1 Delegate


King: Just to remind everyone you need 1990 Delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot, so Vice President Biden is just 89 Delegates short of that magic number and there is a total of 522 Delegates left meaning he only needs a little more than 17% of the remaining Delegates to win the nomination, 17%. That would mean that Senator Bernie Sanders would have to perform basically even better than he did in his home state of Vermont from here on to win the nomination and that just wont happen.

To say so is like saying that Donald Trump can win the election despite losing every battleground state,  Texas and Georgia by winning California and New York which yes is Mathematically possible but just wont happen.


Van Jones: I agree, I think Senator Sanders realistically has no shot at the nomination


Blitzer: Well Senator Sanders in his speech today said he wont drop out until and unless Vice President Biden crosses the magic number of 1990 Delegates.


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E: 3.42, S: 2.61

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« Reply #10 on: February 02, 2020, 03:14:36 AM »
« Edited: February 02, 2020, 12:40:10 PM by Old School Republican »

Breaking News: Joe Biden will be the Presumptive Democratic Nominee



Wolf Blitzer: The polls are about to close in Kentucky and we have some breaking news to project to you

Breaking News: Joe Biden wins Democratic Nomination
Wolf Blitzer: CNN can now project that former Vice President Joe Biden will be the presumptive Democratic Nominee and face President Donald Trump in November's election. Now lets go over to John King who will explain why we can make this projection

King: First lets go over the results of the race since the end of the Acela Primary

Contests won by Former Vice President Biden:

Indiana: Biden 54% 45 Delegates, Bernie 45% 37 Delegates
Guam: Biden 60% 4 Delegates Bernie 39% 3 Delegates

Contests won by Senator Bernie Sanders:

West Virginia: Bernie 53% 15 Delegates , Biden 46% 13 Delegates
Nebraska: Bernie 51% 15 Delegates , Biden 48% 14 Delegates
Kansas: Bernie 59% 23 Delegates , Biden 40% 16 Delegates

King: Now people may be saying wait didnt Bernie win more states since the well that's true, but remember Vice President Biden as only 89 Delegates short of the nomination after the Acela Primary and since then has won another 92 meaning he has surpassed the magic 1990 delegate number any candidate needs for the nomination. Lets look at the map and total delegate count to help understand this more




Total Delegate Count:

Former Vice President Joe Biden 1993 Delegates
Senator Bernie Sanders 1665 Delegates
Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg 33 Delegates
Senator Elizabeth Warren 14 Delegates
Mayor Pete Buttigieg 8 Delegates
Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard 1 Delegate



Former President Obama and DNC Chair Tom Perez announce endorsements of Former Vice President Joe Biden




Tweet from Former President Barack Obama: It is my great honor and privilege to endorse my friend Joe Biden for the Presidency of the United States and one of the best Vice Presidents this nation has ever seen. He will be a President who will represent all Americans and restore honor and dignity to the White House.


Tweet from DNC Chair Tom Perez: It has been a great primary season for our party, debating all sorts of new ideas and I want to thank Vice President Biden, Senator Sanders and all the candidates in this race for running a great race but it is now time for us to unite to defeat one of the worst Presidents this nation has ever seen, Donald Trump .


Senator Bernie Sanders Suspends Campaign after Former Vice President Joe Biden clinches nomination:




Wolf Blitzer: Senator Bernie Sanders in his concession speech today announced that he would be dropping out of the race as a result of today's primary and said he would be endorsing him as well.

Bernie: With my opponent, Vice President Joe Biden officially getting enough pledged delegates to win the Democratic Nomination, we will have no choice but to drop out of the race as it is no longer possible for us to win the nomination.  That does not mean the fight is over as we must fight for progressive candidates down the ballot in Congress and yes we must support Vice President Biden for the Presidency as the fact is we just cannot reelect Donald Trump who has given everything to the rich, denies climate change and panders to racists.

 
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E: 3.42, S: 2.61

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« Reply #11 on: February 03, 2020, 02:28:32 PM »

Joe Biden's VP Shortlist:

Kamala Harris:




Elizabeth Warren:



Tammy Baldwin:



Joe Sestak:



Doug Jones:



Amy Klobuchar:



Julian Castro:



Michael Bennet:

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Computer89
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Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #12 on: February 04, 2020, 02:27:03 PM »
« Edited: February 04, 2020, 02:34:48 PM by Old School Republican »

Joe Biden names Amy Klobacher as running mate



Cooper: We have some breaking news to report and that is that Vice President Biden as officially named Minnesota Senator and former Presidential Candidate Amy Klobuchar as his running mate. We are told yesterday he was deciding between Senator Klobuchar, Senator Harris and Senator Baldwin and it looks like he has chosen Senator Klobuchar

King: Yes and while we dont know about the reasons why he didnt go with the other two , here are some major ones we can speculate about. For Senator Baldwin, it is that the state of Wisconsin does not allow the governor of the state to fill the vacancy and instead his filled by a special election which is held 3 months later, which means if we have a 50-50 Senate in November, it will become a 50-49 Republican-controlled senate for at least 3 months. Another fact is history because the fact is the party in power usually does not do well in off-year elections especially in battleground states, so it would be more likely than not the Republicans would take that seat so it would be better for Democrats if Senator Baldwin stayed in the seante than become Vice President.

For Senator Harris, well the simple reasons is she doesn't directly help the ticket in battleground states anywhere near, as well as Senator Klobuchar does. Senator Klobuchar helped the ticket in states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa and helps keep Minnesota in the Democratic fold while Senator Harris does help in a state like Arizona she doesn't help much in flipping other states because President Trump can be reelected if he loses Arizona if he wins Wisconsin and either Pennsylvania or Michigan while on the other hand if he wins Arizona, he still would lose if he loses just one of those 3 Rust Belt states.


Cooper: Ok now lets see Senator Klobuchar's introduction speech

Biden: It is my honor to introduce to you my running mate and the next Vice President of the United States, Amy Klobuchar(Applause).

Klobuchar: Thank You, Thank You. I am honored to be your running mate Mr.Vice President, and I am honored to be this great party's nominee for Vice President. This election campaign will be the most important election campaign of our lifetimes because the fact is President Trump has spent the last 4 years dividing our nation instead of uniting it, disgraced the office of the Presidency with his behavior,  has isolated us from the rest of the world and even denies what the entire scientific community says about the impacts of Climate Change. On the other hand Vice President, Biden will restore honor and dignity to Oval Office, unite the country once again, will reaffirm our commitments with our allies, take action to deal with the issue of climate change, and work to make sure every American can afford Healthcare(Applause) instead of implement policies what take healthcare away from people.

Thank You, May God Bless You and May God Bless America

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« Reply #13 on: February 05, 2020, 08:07:11 PM »

Good geographic balance for Biden, but definitely sacrificing minority support. Could this indicate a Rust Belt strategy?

I disagree, polls through most of the primary showed that Biden was the strongest candidate among minority voters even more so than Kamala , Castro, Booker etc so I dont really find the argument that Biden would need to name them as his running mate to do well among minority voters that good.

Now if Mayor Pete is the nominee, he will need to name someone like Kamala, Castro or Booker as his running mater given his weakness with minority voters.
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« Reply #14 on: February 06, 2020, 11:01:20 PM »

Summary of 2020 DNC:

List of Major Speakers:



Immigration and Civil Rights:  Julian Castro, Kirsten Gillibrand, Doug Jones
Economic Issues: Sherrod Brown, Michael Bloomberg, Cory Booker
Anti-Corruption Issues: Steve Bullock, Elizabeth Warren, Beto O'Rourke
Environmental Issues:  Bernie Sanders, Al Gore, Jay Inslee
Healthcare: Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, John Hickenlooper,
Foreign Policy: John Kerry, Hillary Clinton,  Ben Cardin
Need to elect Democrats: Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer
Rising Stars: Gretchen Whitmer, Stacey Abrams, Abby Finkenauer
Republicans: John Kasich, Jeff Flake, Arnold Schwarzenegger

Former Presidents: Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama(See Below)


Excerpts of President Obama's Speech




Obama: Thank You, Thank You. For 8 years I had the honor of serving this great nation as our president and for all 8 years(Applause) I have the honor and privilege of working with one of the greatest Vice Presidents ever and my great friend Joe Biden and during those 8 years, I saw the passion he had to help improve our nation(Applause).

Many times he would challenge my own beliefs because he believed I was wrong and many times I was, and I am thankful that I had someone like Joe to tell me that I was. One such issue was Gay Marriage, where Vice President Biden said it is wrong that gay and lesbian couples dont get the same rights as straight couples and he helped change my mind on that issue(Applause) and thanks to him by 2015 , our nation had finally legalized gay marriage in all 50 states. He has been a fighter for working people his whole life, and his work in the Senate proves that and his work as Vice President to help us get important bills passed such as the affordable care act that helped millions of Americans get health insurance and that is why we must elect him to be our next President(Applause).

Joe believes that every American regardless of income should be able to afford healthcare, believes that the economy is strong when it works for everyone not just those at the top, believes that we should do something to help mitigate the effects of climate change and will bring honor and decency back in our government. Thank You, May God Bless You and May God Bless the United States of America.


Excerpts of Amy Klobuchar's speech accepting the Democratic Nomination:



Klobuchar: It is a great honor to be nominated as Vice President of this great party which once nominated another great Vice President who was also from Minnesota: Hubert Humphrey and I accept your nomination(Applause). Vice President Humphrey spent his career fighting for civil rights , for workers and his work culminated in the civil rights act and the Great Society passing and his legacy is exactly what this party has been about (Applause). Now we face many new challanges: from a student debt crises which gets worse year after year, millions of Americans still not being able to afford healthcare and of course the effects of Climate Change getting worse year after year and this current administration instead of dealing with these important issues has not only ignored them but has moved our nation backward on these issues (Boos) and we must start to move forward which is why we must elect Vice President Joe Biden as our 46th President this November(Applause).

He will fight to pass a public option which will make sure all Americans can afford health insurance, reimplement the Paris Agreement on Day 1 so we can once again deal with the issue of Climate change, help deal with the student loan crises, rebuild our relations with nations all around the world and that is why we must elect him our next President. Thank You, May God Bless You and May God Bless America(Applause)

Excerpts of Vice President Joe Biden's speech Accepting the Democratic Nomination:



Biden: Thank You , Thank You. It is a great honor to be nominated for President of this great party of FDR, Harry Truman, JFK and Barack Obama and I accept your nomination(Applause). Since our founding, our party has been the one who has helped fight for people who most need help and that is why I am proud to be a Democrat(Applause). The Republicans whenever they have taken full control of the government whether in the 1920s, the 2000s and the late part of last decade have used it not to fight for the working men and women but to pass their right wing economic agenda , alienate us from the rest of the world, and then use divisive social issues to stay in power and in the 1920s and 2000s it ended up with terrible results and we cannot afford to repeat those mistakes again which is why we must vote for change this November(Applause) and vote for the Democratic Party(Applause).

If you elect our party to take back the White House and Senate this November, we will work to pass a public option to make sure All Americans have access to healthcare, take action against climate change, increase the minimum wage, actually deal with immigration instead of use it as a divisive political issue, and repair our relations with our allies(Applause). It is time to bring honor and decency back into our government because we should be a role model for our children rather than be an example of how not to behave, and I can tell you that if you elect us in November, I will do all I can in my power to truly make our nation decent again(Applause).

On many of our issues we dont have time to wait, every year we ignore climate change is one more year things get even worse and more out of control , every year we ignore the issue of healthcare is more people getting sick, and every year we grow more apart from our allies puts us closer to war and we cannot afford that. 12 years ago when President Obama and I took over after 8 years of the Bush Administration, we were in the worst shape economically then we have been since the Depression, we had to deal with two out of control wars and we cannot risk putting our selves back into that situation by giving this President who is even worse than Bush and Cheney were another 4 years (Applause).

Thank You, May God Bless You and May God Bless America



Polling map After the Convention:



Biden/Klobuchar 375 53%
Trump/Pence 125  44%

Color Code:

Green=Tied
Light= 1-2 point lead
Medium = 3-6 point lead
Medum/Dark = 6-11 Point Lead
Dark = 11+ point lead


King: Before people freak out , I want people to remember this is normal, there are huge bounces out of conventions and the Republicans will get one too and it will be back within 4-5 points after their convention.
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« Reply #15 on: February 06, 2020, 11:04:23 PM »

I bolded that last part just to let people know that is not what I think the battleground map really will look like rather how it will look like after the DNC Convention Bump .


The RNC will get one too and the battleground maps which I will ost after that will be much more accurate than this one
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« Reply #16 on: February 08, 2020, 01:43:16 AM »

Summary of 2020 RNC:

List of Major Speakers:



Immigration: Ted Cruz, Chris Christe, ICE Agents
Criminal Justice Reform: Rand Paul, Alice Johnson, Tim Scott
Judicial Record: Mitch McConnell, Mike Lee, Lindsey Graham
Foreign Policy: Marco Rubio, Mike Pompeo, Nikki Haley
Trade: Rob Portman, Josh Hawley, Ron Johnson
Governors: Ron DeSantis , Gregg Abbott, Mike DeWine
Other Cabinet Members: Steve Munchin, Wilbur Ross, Larry Kudlow
Others: George P Bush,  John James, Jeff Van Drew

Economic Issues: Every speaker above with the exception of ICE Agents and Alice Johnson  and many who are not listed spoke about the Economic Record over and over again in their speech.


Vice President Mike Pence's speech accepting the Republican nomination:



Pence: Thank You, Thank You. It has been an honor to be your Vice President for 4 years again and it will be an honor working with the Greatest President of any of our lifetimes, Donald Trump(Applause) in his goal to make America great again and my friends not only has he succeeded in making America great again he has succeeded in making America greater than we have ever been in our history(Applause). We have the greatest economy in our lifetimes: with wages growing at an unprecedented speed, unemployment the lowest in over 50 years, and more people entering the work force then ever(Applause). We have also replaced NAFTA , signed a new trade deal with China, and secured the borders all of which the left told us was impossible 4 years ago and have also destroyed ISIS(Applause).

Now is not the time to stop, we must continue our progress and the only way to do that is by giving President Trump 4 more years in the White House and give Republicans back control of the House. The Democrats have obstructed our progress the past two years and the way we can end that is by giving the GOP back control of the House. Thank You, May God Bless You and May God Bless America.

President Donald Trump's speech accepting the Republican Nomination:



Trump: Thank You, Thank You. 4 years ago when I promised that we would make America Great Again and not only have we made America Great again but we have made America Greater than it ever has been(Applause). Our economy is stronger than ever, wages have grown much faster in my administration than in any administration in decades and more so for the working men and women of America than the rich(Applause) like the Democrats claim while in the previous Administration all the growth went only to the well and connected. The unemployment rate is at it lowest rates in more than 50 years , the stock market is at record highs and thanks to our tax cuts , more Americans are able to keep more of their money as well(Applause). We have replaced the worst trade deal in history NAFTA with one of the best the USCMA which puts our workers first and signed a trade deal with China which will help stop outsourcing our jobs to China as well(Applause). In my second term I look forward to continuing these policies to keep America Great(Applause).


4 years ago I promised you to help secure the borders and we have. Despite the Democrats best efforts , we have got funding for the wall and are in the process of building the big and great wall(Applause). We have stopped potential terrorists from coming into our country which will keep our country safe, and basically have implemented a merit-based immigration system by making sure immigration are the ones who get green cards(Applause). We have also destroyed ISIS , which 4 years ago the Democrats were saying was impossible and guess what we did it in only one year because we are letting our military win wars again(Applause). Despite the Democrats fake Russian Investigation, we have been more tougher on Russia than any administration since Reagan and the reason why they want to have a good relationship with us now is that I won on that issue(Applause) unlike the Democrats. Unlike the Obama administration, we won on China too which is why we got this trade deal passed(Applause).

This is why Democrats have been doing all they could in trying to get rid of me through the fake Russian Investigation, the Impeachment sham to try to drive my numbers down because without those things they know we would be on track for the biggest landslide since Reagan and they cant take it(Applause). If you want to know Democrats tried to remove President Reagan too through fake scandals, the media then was fair unlike they are today (Applause) .  The fact is if we want to keep America Great we must continue our work for the next 4 years and also elect Republicans to the House and Senate(Applause). I promise you that if you reelect us we will keep America Great . Thank You , May God Bless You and May God Bless America(Applause)



Polling Map After the RNC:



Trump/Pence 264 47%
Biden/Klobuchar 238 47%

Color Code:
Green=Tied
Light= 1-2 point lead
Medium = 3-6 point lead
Medum/Dark = 6-10 Point Lead
Dark = 10+ point lead



King: The Republicans, in my opinion, had an extremely strong and disciplined convention where they just hammered away about the state of the economy over and over again and with our latest poll showing that 2/3 of Americans thinking the economy is strong only really helpt Trump. If Trump had managed to show this discipline through his entire Presidency this would have been very likely another 1996 with a President with a flawed character easily getting reelected over an elder statement due to a strong economy and no war. Of course that isnt the case which is why this is still a race.

For Democrats who are freaking out I just want to remind viewers that polling tends to overestimate Republicans in Nevada so that state is very likely is a state which still favors the Democrats and Pennsylvania the polls have the Democrats around half a point ahead which makes the electoral count 264 for the President to 264 for the Democrats. In Wisconsin, the average of polls shows a total tie so the fact is right now we are at a tie or at best a slight edge for the President, and remember this is after 4 days of nothing but positive coverage for the Republicans so I would say this race still favors the Democrats.


Van Jones: In my opinion this campaign will depend really on how President Trump runs his campaign, if he runs it like he ran this convention he will be reelected, if he doenst and gets side tracked like he does over and over he will lose.


Ben Shapiro(Guest): The irony is how let Trump be Trump won him the election in 2016, well now I think thats what will result in him losing. If he wants to win he needs to keep quiet and just talk about the economy .


Don Lemon: Well knowing President Trump , he will be sidetracked as he just cant help himself and that is why I think he Vice President Biden is still the favorite
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« Reply #17 on: February 10, 2020, 11:57:16 PM »

Biden hammers Trump's Record on Healthcare, Foreign Policy and overall decency.



Cooper: Former Vice President Biden on the campaign trail today hammed Trump's record on healthcare, foreign policy, and called him the divider in chief. He talked about all the attempts Trump has taken to repeal Obamacare, how he has betrayed our allies in Europe, the Kurds and his climate change denialism and lack of overall decency. He called President Trump a disgrace to the oval office and promised that he would bring back honor , decency and empathy back to the White House


In almost every rally he has been hitting Trump on these issues for weeks and it seems like it has had an effect on the polls as Vice President Biden now has a 2 point lead in the polls compared to being down by a point 10 days ago.



Outrage as President Trump attacks Biden's religious faith and age


Cuomo: Today was another example to show how President Trump has very little decency as instead of debating the former Vice President on the substance of his argument he goes to the gutter. Here

Trump: Dont you hate it when people like Sleepy Joe hide behind their religion when its obvious he probably never goes to church and is not a true Christian in any sense of the word. Sleepy Joe is a phony Christian

Cuomo: That phrase if you guys dont use was used as a dog whistle against Catholics like Al Smith and JFK to make it seem like if you are a Catholic you arent a real Christian and that attack is disgraceful in every way. He didnt end there though


Trump: Not only is Sleepy Joe not a real christian but its obvious looking at him he has lost it and is way way too old for the job, I mean he will turn 80 in two years and the fact is we dont need someone that old leading this nation especially someone who has lost it like Sleepy Joe. We need a high energy guy


Cuomo: Vice President Biden responded

Biden: Mr.Trump today proved why he has no decency at all, and has totally disgraced the Presidency.


Trump falls behind in polls entering Debate due to recent controversy over his comments on Vice President Biden



Biden/Klobuchar 304 51%
Trump/Pence 188 45%
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« Reply #18 on: February 11, 2020, 01:00:28 AM »

Senate Races with chances of flipping:



King: Ok lets go over to the magic wall to look over the battleground Senate races and lets first change the map from the 2016 Election Results to this year's senate races. Ok let's go over the races we believe are almost certain to flip

Senate Races almost certain to Flip:

Alabama: Senator Doug Jones(D) vs Former Auburn Football Coach Tommy Tuberville(R)- Safe Republican Pickup

Colorado: Senator Cory Gardner(R) vs Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper- Likely Democratic Pickup


King: So from here Democrats would need to gain 4 Senate seats to win control, 3 if they gain back the White House. So lets look at the battleground races first


Battleground Senate Races:

Michigan: Senator Gary Peters(D) vs Businessman John James(R)- Lean Democratic Hold

Arizona: Senator Martha McSally(R) vs Retired Astronaut Mark Kelly(D)- Tilt Democratic Pickup

Maine: Senator Susan Collins(R) vs Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon(D)- Tossup

North Carolina: Senator Thom Tillis(R) vs State Senator Cal Cunningham(D) - Tossup

Georgia Special: Senator Kelly Loeffler(R)/Representative Doug Collins(R) vs Reverand Raphael Warnock(D)/Businessman Matt Lieberman(D) - Tilt Republican Hold

Georgia: Senator David Perdue(R) vs Former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson(D)- Lean Republican Hold

King: So Democrats to win the senate must hold Michigan , and then must , I mean must win Maine and North Carolina. If they do that they will just need one of the remaining 3 seats left to win control of the Senate as long as they win the Presidency, if not they will need two.

Now lets say its a Democratic Wave or a Republican Wave then not only could the beneficiary party win all these seats but potentially put these long-shot races into play


Long Shot Races:


New Hampshire: Senator Jeanne Shaheen(D) vs Former New Hampshire House Speaker Bill O'Brien(R) - Likely Democratic Hold

Iowa: Senator Joni Ernst(R) vs Former Admiral Micheal Franken(D) - Likely Republican Hold

Texas: Senator John Cornyn(R) vs Former Air Force Major MJ Hegar(D)- Likely Republican Hold

King: If Republicans get a wave there is a possibility they could take New Hampshire and gain 2 seats in the Senate giving them 55 senate seats come January along with probably the House as well. Now if Democrats get a wave there is a possibility they could gain up to 7 seats which would give them 54 senate seats and likely give Biden a large enough majority to pass his agenda without votes not only from Republicans but from a few Moderate Democratic Senators as well.
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« Reply #19 on: February 12, 2020, 12:32:28 AM »
« Edited: February 12, 2020, 05:26:08 PM by Old School Republican »

Summary of First Presidential Debate moderated by Chris Wallace:



Key Point 1:

Wallace: Vice President Biden, you have gone after The President's record on the issue of Healthcare so why do you think the President's record is bad and what would you do differently

Biden: Well the fact is millions of Americans have lost health insurance under the Presidency of my opponent and if not for my friend the late Senator John McCain, it was projected that over 20 million people would have lost insurance under President Trump's plan. Now is Obamacare perfect, no and the fact is President Obama and I wanted to put in place a public option as well to force private insurance companies to reduce their prices even more and if I am elected and you vote in a Democratic Senate, passing a public option will me my number one pritory and we will use reconciliation to create a public option with 50 votes as well.


Trump: What the Vice President said is false, the reason health insurance prices have gone is due to the fact our plan to replace Obamacare didnt pass so the fact is the increases in prices is on the people who created Obamacare which is the previous adminstration which Vice President Biden not only was part of but other than President Obama,had more power than anyone else. The fact is if you elect a Republican House this November , now seeing the impacts of now replacing Obamacare, we will replace Obamacare and fix this broken system that my opponent helped create


Biden: That is not the facts, as if you remember the President and the Republicans removed the individual mandate in their tax reform bill , a key provision of Obamacare so the fact is President Trump is responsible for the increase in health insurance prices as the whole reason you have a mandate is to make sure our emergency rooms dont get overwhelmed and then have the costs passed on to everyone else. Also it lowers the average risk per person which is how health insurance costs are calculated

Trump: Well my administration unlike your's and Obama's belief in the idea that people get to choose not the goverment  .

Wallace: Moving on


Key Point 2:

Wallace: As all of you know ,we are in the longest economic expansion in history so the chances of recession happening in the next 4 years are high. So if either of you are elected what would be your policy to minimize the impacts of such a recession

Trump: Well the fact is there was a recession projected in 2018 and 2019 when I took office but the tax cuts we passed helped our economy avoid such a recession and instead we now have the best economy in our history. So we inherited an economy which was on verge of recession and helped kickoff a new unprecedented boom and if I am re-elected we will extend the tax cuts permanently to make sure this boom continues and we can keep America great.

Biden: Well that point is laughable, the President inherited a growing economy from President Obama and is celebrating cause he didnt crash it. Thats a low bar , and what we need to do now is make sure the economic gains are spread out to everyone

Trump: Our adminstration has done that wage growth is much faster in our adminstration than under yours and so is job growth

Biden: Again that is not true,it was higher in President Obama's 2nd term than yours and you just inherited it

Wallace: To correct both of you Job Creation was higher under Obama's 2nd term but wage growth is faster now. So

Biden: Alright but still the fact is its much easier to inherit a good economy and manage it then manage the worst economy since the depression and make it great again. Let me remind you that economy we inherited was caused by the same Republican policies the President now is implementing

Trump: Actually that is wrong our tax cuts were different than George Bush's and it shows as economic numbers are greater in my administration then it was in Bush's or Obama's.

Biden: That is just not the facts Mr.President


Wallace: Moving On


Important Moment 3:

Wallace: Vice President Biden you believe that President Trump has not delivered on his promises to blue collar workers, why is that and what would you do differently

Biden: Well the fact is outsourcing has increased under President Trump tenure as President , there has been no infrastructure project like he promised and he has actually cut spending on social programs many people rely on.

My belief instead is instead of continuing to give tax breaks to the wealthiest people in this nation, we should raise the corporate tax rate up to 28%, crack down on tax shelters and place a minimum tax rate on corporations which would give us the funding needed to pass 1 trillion dollar infrasture program which can help revitalize many of our left-behind communities.

Trump: Chris the idea that the left behind people in America are still behind left behind is just fake news. There has been a manufacturing boom under my presidency, with hundreds of thousands of new jobs being created in these communities and the fact is if you elect my opponent we will go back to the policies of the Obama Administration which were a total and utter disaster for blue collar workers while we have been nothing but great for blue collar workers.

We replaced the worst trade deal in our history NAFTA with the best on the USCMA and our tax cuts made it easier for businesses to create jobs here instead of overseas. So the fact is we have been nothing but great for blue collar communities and we will continue to be great if you reelect us.

Biden: Again the fact is President Trump just wants us to give him credit for taking the economy he inherited from President Obama and I and not ruining it . The fact is people are still struggling out there in blue collar America and we have to invest in those areas to help revitalize it and giving more tax breaks to people who dont need it is not the answer. The answer is to invest in those communities.

Trump: Thousands of New Factories have opened in my presidency and many more will




Polling Map After Debate:

Blitzer: Most voters believe that the winner of the first debate was President Trump and that has affected the polling as Vice President Biden's lead has been cut by more than half and here's how our polling map looks like now




Biden/Klobuchar 264  49%
Trump/Pence 249  47%



King: Vice President Biden still has the slight edge as he only needs to win either Arizona or Wisconsin to win the Presidency while President Trump needs both to be reelected. One thing though to remind viewers is the topic of the first debate : Economic Policy largely was one where people going in thought the President had the advantage while the last debate Foreign Policy is one where people think Vice President Biden has the advantage so the fact is with how volatile this campaign has been , the debate schedule does favor Vice President Biden
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« Reply #20 on: February 12, 2020, 10:01:07 PM »

Summary of Vice Presidential Debate moderated by Judy Woodruff



Important Moment 1:

Woodruff: Senator Klobuchar you have criticized Vice President Mike Pence for fully being behind the President no matter what, so if you were elected would you not be fully behind say a President Biden's agenda

Klobuchar: Judy there is a difference between supporting the President's agenda and being fully behind the President no matter what . The fact is as human beings none of us are perfect and no President ahs been perfect including Washington and Lincoln so it is our duty as the Vice President to tell the President when he is wrong that he is wrong and why because the President making a wrong decision is bad for our nation.

Now the facts are Vice President Pence instead has never stood up to President Trump one bit. For example, after Charlottesville, Vice President Pence should have told the President that no both sides are not to blame and their arent good people on both sides and told him not to give that disgraceful press confrence like he did which divided our nation even more. If I am wrong about this, tell me Vice President Pence when you stood up to the President


Pence: Well the fact is you would need to stand up to a President Biden while I dont need to for President Trump, cause President Trump has done a fantastic job. Under his leadership, we have the best economy in our history , ISIS has been defeated and we have record peace and prosperity so there is not need for me too.


Klobuchar: This is the exact problem, no President no matter how good you think they are , are perfect but I am sure you know that. The reason you dont speak up is President Trump gets offended whenever someone says he is wrong even for the most minor thing possible which shows how insecure he is. Vice President Biden on the other hand, unlike President Trump, is not insecure and unlike President Trump believes in the fact that listening to advice is a good thing because nobody is an expert at everything.



Woodruff: Moving on



Important Moment 2:


Woodruff: Vice President Pence, the Trump administration has been characterized as having lots of turnover , if you are reelected will things change in your 2nd term.


Pence: Judy, you have to look why there was lots of turnover. When the President was elected he believed the establishment would actually respect the results of the election which is why he nominated people such as Mattis, Tillerson and Sessions but the fact is when they came in they did all they could to stifle the Trump agenda. The only thing the President regrets is not getting rid of them earlier and replacing them with Esper, Pompeo, and Barr much earlier . So yes there will be less turnover in the 2nd term because more of the swamp has been drained unlike in the first two years.

Klobuchar: Firstly those 3 arent the only 3 people the President replaced, he fired a lot of people because the fact is he doesnt believe in cabinet members dissenting, instead he believes they should just be yes men and yes women and that is another reason why this administration has been so bad. A President Biden will hire the most qualified and competent people for his cabinet and actually listen to their advice instead of fire people for speaking up.


Second the fact is calling Jeff Sessions part of the anti-Trump resistance is ridiculous given he was the first senator to endorse the President in his 2016 primary campaign and was a loyal supporter of the President throughout the primaries . The fact is he was fired because he unlike the current Attorney General , Wiliam Barr refused to cover up abuses of power by President Trump .


Pence: The fact is Jeff Sessions recused himself on day one , which made him completely ineffectual which is why he was replaced. I can tell you President Trump would have loved to have him in the senate and would have if Sessions told him about the fact he would recuse himself .


Klobuchar: The reason why Sessions recused himself was Sessions had ties to the President which related to the investigation so he had no choice but to recuse himself.

Woodruff: Moving on


Biden's  lead increases to 3.5 points after Debate





Biden/Klobuchar 278  50%
Trump/Pence 205  46.5%
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« Reply #21 on: February 13, 2020, 03:09:49 AM »

Summary of the Townhall Presidential Debate Moderated by Lester Holt



Audience Member : President Trump, since you first began running back in 2015 you have made immigration your signature issue , so what have you done actually as President to secure the border and deal with this problem and what do you plan to do in your second term

Trump: Thank You for the question and the answer is quite frankly a lot . We have increased border security at the border, and have begun constructing the wall which should be built in a couple years. We have also increased vetting to make sure violent criminals do not come into this country but you are right there is a lot of work to be done. There needs to be a deal made about what to do with dreamers and frankley the Democrats keep blocking that effort and we also need to change our immigration system to make sure we can retain high skilled immigration and a Republican senator Mike Lee has sponsered that effort but as usual the Democrats are stopping it.


Biden: What President Trump just said there is all nothing but a falsehood. Just last year the Vox reported that illegal crossings were at an 11 year high which coincidently it coincides with the last time the Republicans were in the White House. The fact that he wants to make a deal with dreamers is a lie because if you remember in 2018 the Democrats offered him a deal that would fund his entire wall as long in exchange of giving Dreamers legal status and he turned it down because the fact is President Trump is more interested in using this issue to drive up voters in his base than actually doing something about it. All he actually has done on the issue is separate families and put kids in cages which is a total disgrace in every way as our country is supposed to stand up to things like that.


Trump: The Family Separations were done by President Obama and your administration while my administration ended it so what you are saying is fake news. Next that is not true the Democrats wanted much more than just DACA and shut down the government as well which is why a deal couldnt be made and the fact is we are building the wall.


Holt: We are moving on

Biden: Can I finish

Holt: 30 seconds

Biden: Actually that is not true Democrats offered you the entire wall for just reinstating DACA but you listened to Stephen Miller who told you to reject it


Holt: Moving on


Important Moment 2:


Audience Member: Vice President Biden, what will be your plan to deal with the skyrocketing costs of  living in this nation


Biden: Thank You for the question and the answer is first we must raise the minimum wage to $15 dollars an hour which will make it easier for working families in this nation to pay the rent due to the fact they will have more money in their pockets. Second we must reduce the cost of healthcare in this country and my plan is to put into place a Public Option which will give Americans a cheaper option to private insurance and force the private insurers to bring down costs to continue to attract customers. Then lastly we must work with city governments to increase funding for low-income housing all across the nation .

Trump: The Vice President is right wages must go up and the fact is in the past 4 years they have gone up 7% which makes it easier for Americans to afford their rent and we must continue that growth. The fact is raising the minimum wage to $15 dollars and hour will be a total disaster as many small businesses throught the nation cannot afford to hire employees at that cost so what that will do is throw people out of work which would make it even harder for people to pay the rent.

Lastly I want to throw this fact out , the state of Texas a state controlled by Republicans has much lower housing prices than the state of California and New York so its pretty obvious Democratic policies on this issue have been a total and huge failure while Republican policies on this issue have been a success.

Biden: First of all I am sure companies like Wall-Mart and Amazon can afford to pay their employees 15 dollars and hour and the cost to pay for such an increase is less than your tax cut to them so if your tax cut was as good as you claimed they should be able to afford that increase.Next again President Trump leaves out so many excuses, the reason Texas has low housing prices is that there is so much land where you can build new houses while that is not true for California.

Trump: Those are nothing but excuses for your party's failure Joe.

Holt : Moving on


Important Moment 3:

Audience Member: This is a question for both candidates, what would be your plan on the issue of criminal justice reform is you are elected

Holt: President Trump you can go first

Trump: Well the fact is my administration has done more on this issue than any other administration with the passing of the first step act which freed thousands of prisoners who shouldnt have been there. I also am in support of the second step act which will make it easier for inmates when they get out of prison to get jobs and in my second term we will pass that into law.


Biden: Well if you remember President Obama commuted thousands of sentences for nonviolent drug offender and I will do that again from day 1 as doing so will defacto help reform the criminal justice system. I will also appoint an attorney general who will recommend lesser sentences for future nonviolent offenders as well   . These are the things a President by himself and that is what I would do. Legislatively I will ask Congress to pass a bill decriminalizing marijuana


Trump: Well the fact is you are responsible for the broken system with you terrible crime bill you passed in 1994 and I have been cleaning up your mess. You were one of the biggest supporters of these terrible criminal justice reform policies over and over again and once you even joined forces with a segregationist, Strom Thurmond in that effort so the fact is you have been nothing but a failure on this issue Joe while I have been nothing but a success.


Biden: Unlike you I can admit when I was wrong and I was wrong on the issue, and so were you. You for one wrote an op-ed asking New York to sentence the Central Five to Death and even after they were exonerated you never apologized for that and instead doubled down which was nothing short of terrible. You also nominated two drug warriors, Jeff Sessions and William Barr to be the head of the justice department and have barely committed any nonviolent offenders



Trump: That is just fake news, I never doubled down on the central park five and what you are saying is a lie

Lester Holt: Actually you did in 2015


Trump: I was talking about how terrible the process was not doubling down and yes appointing Jeff Sessions was a mistake thats why I fired him and then in the senate primary this year made sure he didnt win the Republican nomination when I endorsed the great Coach Tommy Tuberville. So stop drying to hide behind your terrble record because my record ever since I got into politics has been better than yours


Holt: Moving On



Trump wins Debate , gets back within 2 points:





Biden/Klobuchar 264  49.5%
Trump/Pence 260  47.5%
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« Reply #22 on: February 13, 2020, 10:30:43 PM »

Summary of Final Presidential Debate Moderated by Margaret Brennan:



Important Moment 1:

Brennan: Vice President Biden, you have said you believe that the issue of climate change should be forefront in talks with other nations and at summits. If elected what would you do to get the world united to deal with the issue of Climate Change

Biden: Margaret, the first thing we need to do is re-enter the Paris climate change agreement to show the rest of the world that the US is willing to lead on this issue. Then what we need to do is we must point in climate change provisions in future trade deals to ensure that the rest of the world would join us in implementing policies that reduce emissions. President Trump, on the other hand, has taken us backward, getting us out of the Paris Climate Agreement which sent a message to the world that the US will go backward on the issue of climate change and PresidentTrump's regulatory policies on that have further sent that message.

We cannot afford to ignore this issue any longer and must deal with this issue now


Trump: The Paris Climate Change was a scam made to make the US pay more. The facts are that emissions have gone down under my watch because big goverment policies just do not work and the idea we have to negotiate trade deals based on more government regulations to ruin other nations economies is a big fat joke.

Biden: That mindset there is the exact problem because the fact is President Trump works for fossil fuel special interests who want him to make it seem like climate change is not a problem when it clearly is. By the way, it's just not Democrats who want something done about it, a poll of Republicans shows that they want something done on the issue, it is President Trump and the Special Interests he is afraid off .


Trump: You are the one controlled by special interests not me


Important Moment 2:

Brennan: President Trump you have made dealing with China one of your top priorities of your administration, and so far you have signed a phase 1 deal, so if you are reelected what types of pressure will you put too get a phase 2 deal passed or maybe an overall trade deal

Trump: As you know since it was only a Phase 1 Deal, we did not remove all our tariffs against China so, and until we get an overall trade deal passed those tariffs will remain in place. I have gotten to know President Xi and I can tell you I have a great relationship with President Xi so I am confident that we can pass a trade deal within a year or two into my second term.

Biden: The fact that you are bragging about having a great relationship with a leader who has flagrantly violated the human rights of his citizens while you go after allies truly makes no sense what so ever. The fact is it is more than high time that we go after China for their Human Rights abuses and place Sanctions against them for those abuses like putting a million  Uighurs in concentration camps. It is unacceptable that in the year 2020 that that type of human rights abuse happens and we should sanction them for that, request our allies which this President has destroyed relations to do the same.

As for a trade deal , it needs to be made clear that no trade deal be signed until they close down those concentration camps for good.


Trump: I have done far more against the Chinese than the Obama administration did, so while you are talking about doing things now why didnt you when you had the authority. Thats right you didnt have the guts to do so like I do


Biden: What you are saying is 100% false, we were working with our allies such as South Korea, a ally President Trump has estranged us with along with other allies in the nation to put a check on their military buildup , and negotiated a trade deal the TPP to put a check on China. Instead of ratifying that treaty you pulled us out of it and then lately you agreed to a phase one trade deal without any human rights guarantees.


Trump: I am not willing to ruin our chances of signing a trade deal like you are Joe. TPP would have resulted in millions of jobs being outsourced thats why I withdrew us from it

Biden: Whats more important: standing up for Human Rights or a Trade Deal, its clearly standing up for human rights and if that jeopardizes are the ability to sign a trade deal, then so be it as standing up for Human Rights and Human Dignity are more important.


Important Moment 3:

Brennan: Vice President Biden, You have criticized the way, President Trump withdrew troops from Northern Syria last year and is planning to withdraw troops from Afghanistan but didnt yours and President Obama's administration to the same thing in Iraq .

Biden: No if you remember that withdrawal plan was signed by George W Bush not our administration and it was the Iraqi government who then said we would only allow a residual force if we abide by certain laws which we as Americans obviously think are immoral so because of that we had no choice but to leave the way we did.

President Trump, on the other hand, was not asked to withdraw troops by the Kurds but did so which resulted in many innocent Kurds dying and now in Afghanistan he is negotiating an exit strategy with the Taliban out of all the people . What should have been done is negotiate an exit strategy with the government not the Tailban


Trump: The fact is your Iraqi withdrawal plan not Bush's led to the lead to the creation of ISIS which by the way I defeated. I believe we must withdraw troops from the middle east and yes to do so requires negotiating a deal with both sides.


Biden: That is absolutely false, it was Obama's administration which trained Iraqi forces to take down ISIS and most of ISIS territory was recaptured by the fall of 2016 while you took over in January of 2017 so what you are saying is false. The fact is Mr.President you decision to withdraw troops from North Syria resulted in the deaths of so many innocent Kurds, an ally of us who were instrumental in our win agianst ISIS and you betrayed them just so you can brag in your rallies you withdrew troops like you promised.


Trump: All of our troops have to get out at some point and I unlike your and Obama's administration who promised the same thing back in 2008 is actually keeping my word.

Biden: Wrong, you just moved those troops to Saudi Arabia so you have not withdrawn troops so you are misleading the people completely here.

Trump: Yes we put troops in Saudi Arabia because they were in threat of being attacked by Iran

Brennan : Moving on


Biden doubles lead in polls after strong debate performance:



Biden/Klobuchar 289  51%
Trump/Pence 189  47%


King: This is still a close election as if Trump wins all the pure tossup states and Arizona and Wisconsin he wins the Presidency but at this point Vice President Biden has the edge.
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Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,348


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

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« Reply #23 on: February 14, 2020, 12:52:27 AM »

Final Polling Map of Campaign:

Wolf Blitzer: With only one day left till the 2020 Presidential Election , the final average of all polls in this campaign shows Vice President Biden with a 3 point lead over President Trump. Now lets go over to John King and to see what that means in the all-important electoral map

John King: Yes to remind viewers you need 270 votes to win and what our polling map is showing us is this



Biden/Klobuchar 268  51%
Trump/Pence 234  48%


King: So Vice President Biden only needs to win one of the 3 remaining states which are tied to win the election while President Trump needs to run the table but lets remember something , these polls have a range of error so that puts these states which are Tilt in play. So President Trump can get to 270 if he loses one of of these 3 states if he wins Pennsylvania which is ironically where he will be holding his last rally of the campaign.

On the other hand Vice President Biden is holding his last rally in Atlanta, Georgia as say he loses all those states or two of those states and Pennsylvania then taking Georgia away from the Trump column will make him the next President.


Blitzer: Thanks John, and to remind our viewers we will start election coverage at 6:45 PM ET tomorrow and at 7:00 PM ET we can start telling you the real result so I hope you join us tomorrow evening  for our coverage of Election Night 2020
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,348


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #24 on: February 14, 2020, 09:44:20 AM »

Has there been an October surprise yet?

No and there won’t be for this election
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