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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL
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Author Topic: A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL  (Read 2871 times)
Old School Republican
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« Reply #25 on: February 06, 2020, 11:01:20 pm »

Summary of 2020 DNC:

List of Major Speakers:



Immigration and Civil Rights:  Julian Castro, Kirsten Gillibrand, Doug Jones
Economic Issues: Sherrod Brown, Michael Bloomberg, Cory Booker
Anti-Corruption Issues: Steve Bullock, Elizabeth Warren, Beto O'Rourke
Environmental Issues:  Bernie Sanders, Al Gore, Jay Inslee
Healthcare: Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, John Hickenlooper,
Foreign Policy: John Kerry, Hillary Clinton,  Ben Cardin
Need to elect Democrats: Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer
Rising Stars: Gretchen Whitmer, Stacey Abrams, Abby Finkenauer
Republicans: John Kasich, Jeff Flake, Arnold Schwarzenegger

Former Presidents: Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama(See Below)


Excerpts of President Obama's Speech




Obama: Thank You, Thank You. For 8 years I had the honor of serving this great nation as our president and for all 8 years(Applause) I have the honor and privilege of working with one of the greatest Vice Presidents ever and my great friend Joe Biden and during those 8 years, I saw the passion he had to help improve our nation(Applause).

Many times he would challenge my own beliefs because he believed I was wrong and many times I was, and I am thankful that I had someone like Joe to tell me that I was. One such issue was Gay Marriage, where Vice President Biden said it is wrong that gay and lesbian couples dont get the same rights as straight couples and he helped change my mind on that issue(Applause) and thanks to him by 2015 , our nation had finally legalized gay marriage in all 50 states. He has been a fighter for working people his whole life, and his work in the Senate proves that and his work as Vice President to help us get important bills passed such as the affordable care act that helped millions of Americans get health insurance and that is why we must elect him to be our next President(Applause).

Joe believes that every American regardless of income should be able to afford healthcare, believes that the economy is strong when it works for everyone not just those at the top, believes that we should do something to help mitigate the effects of climate change and will bring honor and decency back in our government. Thank You, May God Bless You and May God Bless the United States of America.


Excerpts of Amy Klobuchar's speech accepting the Democratic Nomination:



Klobuchar: It is a great honor to be nominated as Vice President of this great party which once nominated another great Vice President who was also from Minnesota: Hubert Humphrey and I accept your nomination(Applause). Vice President Humphrey spent his career fighting for civil rights , for workers and his work culminated in the civil rights act and the Great Society passing and his legacy is exactly what this party has been about (Applause). Now we face many new challanges: from a student debt crises which gets worse year after year, millions of Americans still not being able to afford healthcare and of course the effects of Climate Change getting worse year after year and this current administration instead of dealing with these important issues has not only ignored them but has moved our nation backward on these issues (Boos) and we must start to move forward which is why we must elect Vice President Joe Biden as our 46th President this November(Applause).

He will fight to pass a public option which will make sure all Americans can afford health insurance, reimplement the Paris Agreement on Day 1 so we can once again deal with the issue of Climate change, help deal with the student loan crises, rebuild our relations with nations all around the world and that is why we must elect him our next President. Thank You, May God Bless You and May God Bless America(Applause)

Excerpts of Vice President Joe Biden's speech Accepting the Democratic Nomination:



Biden: Thank You , Thank You. It is a great honor to be nominated for President of this great party of FDR, Harry Truman, JFK and Barack Obama and I accept your nomination(Applause). Since our founding, our party has been the one who has helped fight for people who most need help and that is why I am proud to be a Democrat(Applause). The Republicans whenever they have taken full control of the government whether in the 1920s, the 2000s and the late part of last decade have used it not to fight for the working men and women but to pass their right wing economic agenda , alienate us from the rest of the world, and then use divisive social issues to stay in power and in the 1920s and 2000s it ended up with terrible results and we cannot afford to repeat those mistakes again which is why we must vote for change this November(Applause) and vote for the Democratic Party(Applause).

If you elect our party to take back the White House and Senate this November, we will work to pass a public option to make sure All Americans have access to healthcare, take action against climate change, increase the minimum wage, actually deal with immigration instead of use it as a divisive political issue, and repair our relations with our allies(Applause). It is time to bring honor and decency back into our government because we should be a role model for our children rather than be an example of how not to behave, and I can tell you that if you elect us in November, I will do all I can in my power to truly make our nation decent again(Applause).

On many of our issues we dont have time to wait, every year we ignore climate change is one more year things get even worse and more out of control , every year we ignore the issue of healthcare is more people getting sick, and every year we grow more apart from our allies puts us closer to war and we cannot afford that. 12 years ago when President Obama and I took over after 8 years of the Bush Administration, we were in the worst shape economically then we have been since the Depression, we had to deal with two out of control wars and we cannot risk putting our selves back into that situation by giving this President who is even worse than Bush and Cheney were another 4 years (Applause).

Thank You, May God Bless You and May God Bless America



Polling map After the Convention:



Biden/Klobuchar 375 53%
Trump/Pence 125  44%

Color Code:

Green=Tied
Light= 1-2 point lead
Medium = 3-6 point lead
Medum/Dark = 6-11 Point Lead
Dark = 11+ point lead


King: Before people freak out , I want people to remember this is normal, there are huge bounces out of conventions and the Republicans will get one too and it will be back within 4-5 points after their convention.
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« Reply #26 on: February 06, 2020, 11:04:23 pm »

I bolded that last part just to let people know that is not what I think the battleground map really will look like rather how it will look like after the DNC Convention Bump .


The RNC will get one too and the battleground maps which I will ost after that will be much more accurate than this one
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« Reply #27 on: February 08, 2020, 01:43:16 am »

Summary of 2020 RNC:

List of Major Speakers:



Immigration: Ted Cruz, Chris Christe, ICE Agents
Criminal Justice Reform: Rand Paul, Alice Johnson, Tim Scott
Judicial Record: Mitch McConnell, Mike Lee, Lindsey Graham
Foreign Policy: Marco Rubio, Mike Pompeo, Nikki Haley
Trade: Rob Portman, Josh Hawley, Ron Johnson
Governors: Ron DeSantis , Gregg Abbott, Mike DeWine
Other Cabinet Members: Steve Munchin, Wilbur Ross, Larry Kudlow
Others: George P Bush,  John James, Jeff Van Drew

Economic Issues: Every speaker above with the exception of ICE Agents and Alice Johnson  and many who are not listed spoke about the Economic Record over and over again in their speech.


Vice President Mike Pence's speech accepting the Republican nomination:



Pence: Thank You, Thank You. It has been an honor to be your Vice President for 4 years again and it will be an honor working with the Greatest President of any of our lifetimes, Donald Trump(Applause) in his goal to make America great again and my friends not only has he succeeded in making America great again he has succeeded in making America greater than we have ever been in our history(Applause). We have the greatest economy in our lifetimes: with wages growing at an unprecedented speed, unemployment the lowest in over 50 years, and more people entering the work force then ever(Applause). We have also replaced NAFTA , signed a new trade deal with China, and secured the borders all of which the left told us was impossible 4 years ago and have also destroyed ISIS(Applause).

Now is not the time to stop, we must continue our progress and the only way to do that is by giving President Trump 4 more years in the White House and give Republicans back control of the House. The Democrats have obstructed our progress the past two years and the way we can end that is by giving the GOP back control of the House. Thank You, May God Bless You and May God Bless America.

President Donald Trump's speech accepting the Republican Nomination:



Trump: Thank You, Thank You. 4 years ago when I promised that we would make America Great Again and not only have we made America Great again but we have made America Greater than it ever has been(Applause). Our economy is stronger than ever, wages have grown much faster in my administration than in any administration in decades and more so for the working men and women of America than the rich(Applause) like the Democrats claim while in the previous Administration all the growth went only to the well and connected. The unemployment rate is at it lowest rates in more than 50 years , the stock market is at record highs and thanks to our tax cuts , more Americans are able to keep more of their money as well(Applause). We have replaced the worst trade deal in history NAFTA with one of the best the USCMA which puts our workers first and signed a trade deal with China which will help stop outsourcing our jobs to China as well(Applause). In my second term I look forward to continuing these policies to keep America Great(Applause).


4 years ago I promised you to help secure the borders and we have. Despite the Democrats best efforts , we have got funding for the wall and are in the process of building the big and great wall(Applause). We have stopped potential terrorists from coming into our country which will keep our country safe, and basically have implemented a merit-based immigration system by making sure immigration are the ones who get green cards(Applause). We have also destroyed ISIS , which 4 years ago the Democrats were saying was impossible and guess what we did it in only one year because we are letting our military win wars again(Applause). Despite the Democrats fake Russian Investigation, we have been more tougher on Russia than any administration since Reagan and the reason why they want to have a good relationship with us now is that I won on that issue(Applause) unlike the Democrats. Unlike the Obama administration, we won on China too which is why we got this trade deal passed(Applause).

This is why Democrats have been doing all they could in trying to get rid of me through the fake Russian Investigation, the Impeachment sham to try to drive my numbers down because without those things they know we would be on track for the biggest landslide since Reagan and they cant take it(Applause). If you want to know Democrats tried to remove President Reagan too through fake scandals, the media then was fair unlike they are today (Applause) .  The fact is if we want to keep America Great we must continue our work for the next 4 years and also elect Republicans to the House and Senate(Applause). I promise you that if you reelect us we will keep America Great . Thank You , May God Bless You and May God Bless America(Applause)



Polling Map After the RNC:



Trump/Pence 264 47%
Biden/Klobuchar 238 47%

Color Code:
Green=Tied
Light= 1-2 point lead
Medium = 3-6 point lead
Medum/Dark = 6-10 Point Lead
Dark = 10+ point lead



King: The Republicans, in my opinion, had an extremely strong and disciplined convention where they just hammered away about the state of the economy over and over again and with our latest poll showing that 2/3 of Americans thinking the economy is strong only really helpt Trump. If Trump had managed to show this discipline through his entire Presidency this would have been very likely another 1996 with a President with a flawed character easily getting reelected over an elder statement due to a strong economy and no war. Of course that isnt the case which is why this is still a race.

For Democrats who are freaking out I just want to remind viewers that polling tends to overestimate Republicans in Nevada so that state is very likely is a state which still favors the Democrats and Pennsylvania the polls have the Democrats around half a point ahead which makes the electoral count 264 for the President to 264 for the Democrats. In Wisconsin, the average of polls shows a total tie so the fact is right now we are at a tie or at best a slight edge for the President, and remember this is after 4 days of nothing but positive coverage for the Republicans so I would say this race still favors the Democrats.


Van Jones: In my opinion this campaign will depend really on how President Trump runs his campaign, if he runs it like he ran this convention he will be reelected, if he doenst and gets side tracked like he does over and over he will lose.


Ben Shapiro(Guest): The irony is how let Trump be Trump won him the election in 2016, well now I think thats what will result in him losing. If he wants to win he needs to keep quiet and just talk about the economy .


Don Lemon: Well knowing President Trump , he will be sidetracked as he just cant help himself and that is why I think he Vice President Biden is still the favorite
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« Reply #28 on: February 10, 2020, 11:57:16 pm »

Biden hammers Trump's Record on Healthcare, Foreign Policy and overall decency.



Cooper: Former Vice President Biden on the campaign trail today hammed Trump's record on healthcare, foreign policy, and called him the divider in chief. He talked about all the attempts Trump has taken to repeal Obamacare, how he has betrayed our allies in Europe, the Kurds and his climate change denialism and lack of overall decency. He called President Trump a disgrace to the oval office and promised that he would bring back honor , decency and empathy back to the White House


In almost every rally he has been hitting Trump on these issues for weeks and it seems like it has had an effect on the polls as Vice President Biden now has a 2 point lead in the polls compared to being down by a point 10 days ago.



Outrage as President Trump attacks Biden's religious faith and age


Cuomo: Today was another example to show how President Trump has very little decency as instead of debating the former Vice President on the substance of his argument he goes to the gutter. Here

Trump: Dont you hate it when people like Sleepy Joe hide behind their religion when its obvious he probably never goes to church and is not a true Christian in any sense of the word. Sleepy Joe is a phony Christian

Cuomo: That phrase if you guys dont use was used as a dog whistle against Catholics like Al Smith and JFK to make it seem like if you are a Catholic you arent a real Christian and that attack is disgraceful in every way. He didnt end there though


Trump: Not only is Sleepy Joe not a real christian but its obvious looking at him he has lost it and is way way too old for the job, I mean he will turn 80 in two years and the fact is we dont need someone that old leading this nation especially someone who has lost it like Sleepy Joe. We need a high energy guy


Cuomo: Vice President Biden responded

Biden: Mr.Trump today proved why he has no decency at all, and has totally disgraced the Presidency.


Trump falls behind in polls entering Debate due to recent controversy over his comments on Vice President Biden



Biden/Klobuchar 304 51%
Trump/Pence 188 45%
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« Reply #29 on: February 11, 2020, 01:00:28 am »

Senate Races with chances of flipping:



King: Ok lets go over to the magic wall to look over the battleground Senate races and lets first change the map from the 2016 Election Results to this year's senate races. Ok let's go over the races we believe are almost certain to flip

Senate Races almost certain to Flip:

Alabama: Senator Doug Jones(D) vs Former Auburn Football Coach Tommy Tuberville(R)- Safe Republican Pickup

Colorado: Senator Cory Gardner(R) vs Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper- Likely Democratic Pickup


King: So from here Democrats would need to gain 4 Senate seats to win control, 3 if they gain back the White House. So lets look at the battleground races first


Battleground Senate Races:

Michigan: Senator Gary Peters(D) vs Businessman John James(R)- Lean Democratic Hold

Arizona: Senator Martha McSally(R) vs Retired Astronaut Mark Kelly(D)- Tilt Democratic Pickup

Maine: Senator Susan Collins(R) vs Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon(D)- Tossup

North Carolina: Senator Thom Tillis(R) vs State Senator Cal Cunningham(D) - Tossup

Georgia Special: Senator Kelly Loeffler(R)/Representative Doug Collins(R) vs Reverand Raphael Warnock(D)/Businessman Matt Lieberman(D) - Tilt Republican Hold

Georgia: Senator David Perdue(R) vs Former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson(D)- Lean Republican Hold

King: So Democrats to win the senate must hold Michigan , and then must , I mean must win Maine and North Carolina. If they do that they will just need one of the remaining 3 seats left to win control of the Senate as long as they win the Presidency, if not they will need two.

Now lets say its a Democratic Wave or a Republican Wave then not only could the beneficiary party win all these seats but potentially put these long-shot races into play


Long Shot Races:


New Hampshire: Senator Jeanne Shaheen(D) vs Former New Hampshire House Speaker Bill O'Brien(R) - Likely Democratic Hold

Iowa: Senator Joni Ernst(R) vs Former Admiral Micheal Franken(D) - Likely Republican Hold

Texas: Senator John Cornyn(R) vs Former Air Force Major MJ Hegar(D)- Likely Republican Hold

King: If Republicans get a wave there is a possibility they could take New Hampshire and gain 2 seats in the Senate giving them 55 senate seats come January along with probably the House as well. Now if Democrats get a wave there is a possibility they could gain up to 7 seats which would give them 54 senate seats and likely give Biden a large enough majority to pass his agenda without votes not only from Republicans but from a few Moderate Democratic Senators as well.
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« Reply #30 on: February 12, 2020, 12:32:28 am »
« Edited: February 12, 2020, 05:26:08 pm by Old School Republican »

Summary of First Presidential Debate moderated by Chris Wallace:



Key Point 1:

Wallace: Vice President Biden, you have gone after The President's record on the issue of Healthcare so why do you think the President's record is bad and what would you do differently

Biden: Well the fact is millions of Americans have lost health insurance under the Presidency of my opponent and if not for my friend the late Senator John McCain, it was projected that over 20 million people would have lost insurance under President Trump's plan. Now is Obamacare perfect, no and the fact is President Obama and I wanted to put in place a public option as well to force private insurance companies to reduce their prices even more and if I am elected and you vote in a Democratic Senate, passing a public option will me my number one pritory and we will use reconciliation to create a public option with 50 votes as well.


Trump: What the Vice President said is false, the reason health insurance prices have gone is due to the fact our plan to replace Obamacare didnt pass so the fact is the increases in prices is on the people who created Obamacare which is the previous adminstration which Vice President Biden not only was part of but other than President Obama,had more power than anyone else. The fact is if you elect a Republican House this November , now seeing the impacts of now replacing Obamacare, we will replace Obamacare and fix this broken system that my opponent helped create


Biden: That is not the facts, as if you remember the President and the Republicans removed the individual mandate in their tax reform bill , a key provision of Obamacare so the fact is President Trump is responsible for the increase in health insurance prices as the whole reason you have a mandate is to make sure our emergency rooms dont get overwhelmed and then have the costs passed on to everyone else. Also it lowers the average risk per person which is how health insurance costs are calculated

Trump: Well my administration unlike your's and Obama's belief in the idea that people get to choose not the goverment  .

Wallace: Moving on


Key Point 2:

Wallace: As all of you know ,we are in the longest economic expansion in history so the chances of recession happening in the next 4 years are high. So if either of you are elected what would be your policy to minimize the impacts of such a recession

Trump: Well the fact is there was a recession projected in 2018 and 2019 when I took office but the tax cuts we passed helped our economy avoid such a recession and instead we now have the best economy in our history. So we inherited an economy which was on verge of recession and helped kickoff a new unprecedented boom and if I am re-elected we will extend the tax cuts permanently to make sure this boom continues and we can keep America great.

Biden: Well that point is laughable, the President inherited a growing economy from President Obama and is celebrating cause he didnt crash it. Thats a low bar , and what we need to do now is make sure the economic gains are spread out to everyone

Trump: Our adminstration has done that wage growth is much faster in our adminstration than under yours and so is job growth

Biden: Again that is not true,it was higher in President Obama's 2nd term than yours and you just inherited it

Wallace: To correct both of you Job Creation was higher under Obama's 2nd term but wage growth is faster now. So

Biden: Alright but still the fact is its much easier to inherit a good economy and manage it then manage the worst economy since the depression and make it great again. Let me remind you that economy we inherited was caused by the same Republican policies the President now is implementing

Trump: Actually that is wrong our tax cuts were different than George Bush's and it shows as economic numbers are greater in my administration then it was in Bush's or Obama's.

Biden: That is just not the facts Mr.President


Wallace: Moving On


Important Moment 3:

Wallace: Vice President Biden you believe that President Trump has not delivered on his promises to blue collar workers, why is that and what would you do differently

Biden: Well the fact is outsourcing has increased under President Trump tenure as President , there has been no infrastructure project like he promised and he has actually cut spending on social programs many people rely on.

My belief instead is instead of continuing to give tax breaks to the wealthiest people in this nation, we should raise the corporate tax rate up to 28%, crack down on tax shelters and place a minimum tax rate on corporations which would give us the funding needed to pass 1 trillion dollar infrasture program which can help revitalize many of our left-behind communities.

Trump: Chris the idea that the left behind people in America are still behind left behind is just fake news. There has been a manufacturing boom under my presidency, with hundreds of thousands of new jobs being created in these communities and the fact is if you elect my opponent we will go back to the policies of the Obama Administration which were a total and utter disaster for blue collar workers while we have been nothing but great for blue collar workers.

We replaced the worst trade deal in our history NAFTA with the best on the USCMA and our tax cuts made it easier for businesses to create jobs here instead of overseas. So the fact is we have been nothing but great for blue collar communities and we will continue to be great if you reelect us.

Biden: Again the fact is President Trump just wants us to give him credit for taking the economy he inherited from President Obama and I and not ruining it . The fact is people are still struggling out there in blue collar America and we have to invest in those areas to help revitalize it and giving more tax breaks to people who dont need it is not the answer. The answer is to invest in those communities.

Trump: Thousands of New Factories have opened in my presidency and many more will




Polling Map After Debate:

Blitzer: Most voters believe that the winner of the first debate was President Trump and that has affected the polling as Vice President Biden's lead has been cut by more than half and here's how our polling map looks like now




Biden/Klobuchar 264  49%
Trump/Pence 249  47%



King: Vice President Biden still has the slight edge as he only needs to win either Arizona or Wisconsin to win the Presidency while President Trump needs both to be reelected. One thing though to remind viewers is the topic of the first debate : Economic Policy largely was one where people going in thought the President had the advantage while the last debate Foreign Policy is one where people think Vice President Biden has the advantage so the fact is with how volatile this campaign has been , the debate schedule does favor Vice President Biden
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« Reply #31 on: February 12, 2020, 10:01:07 pm »

Summary of Vice Presidential Debate moderated by Judy Woodruff



Important Moment 1:

Woodruff: Senator Klobuchar you have criticized Vice President Mike Pence for fully being behind the President no matter what, so if you were elected would you not be fully behind say a President Biden's agenda

Klobuchar: Judy there is a difference between supporting the President's agenda and being fully behind the President no matter what . The fact is as human beings none of us are perfect and no President ahs been perfect including Washington and Lincoln so it is our duty as the Vice President to tell the President when he is wrong that he is wrong and why because the President making a wrong decision is bad for our nation.

Now the facts are Vice President Pence instead has never stood up to President Trump one bit. For example, after Charlottesville, Vice President Pence should have told the President that no both sides are not to blame and their arent good people on both sides and told him not to give that disgraceful press confrence like he did which divided our nation even more. If I am wrong about this, tell me Vice President Pence when you stood up to the President


Pence: Well the fact is you would need to stand up to a President Biden while I dont need to for President Trump, cause President Trump has done a fantastic job. Under his leadership, we have the best economy in our history , ISIS has been defeated and we have record peace and prosperity so there is not need for me too.


Klobuchar: This is the exact problem, no President no matter how good you think they are , are perfect but I am sure you know that. The reason you dont speak up is President Trump gets offended whenever someone says he is wrong even for the most minor thing possible which shows how insecure he is. Vice President Biden on the other hand, unlike President Trump, is not insecure and unlike President Trump believes in the fact that listening to advice is a good thing because nobody is an expert at everything.



Woodruff: Moving on



Important Moment 2:


Woodruff: Vice President Pence, the Trump administration has been characterized as having lots of turnover , if you are reelected will things change in your 2nd term.


Pence: Judy, you have to look why there was lots of turnover. When the President was elected he believed the establishment would actually respect the results of the election which is why he nominated people such as Mattis, Tillerson and Sessions but the fact is when they came in they did all they could to stifle the Trump agenda. The only thing the President regrets is not getting rid of them earlier and replacing them with Esper, Pompeo, and Barr much earlier . So yes there will be less turnover in the 2nd term because more of the swamp has been drained unlike in the first two years.

Klobuchar: Firstly those 3 arent the only 3 people the President replaced, he fired a lot of people because the fact is he doesnt believe in cabinet members dissenting, instead he believes they should just be yes men and yes women and that is another reason why this administration has been so bad. A President Biden will hire the most qualified and competent people for his cabinet and actually listen to their advice instead of fire people for speaking up.


Second the fact is calling Jeff Sessions part of the anti-Trump resistance is ridiculous given he was the first senator to endorse the President in his 2016 primary campaign and was a loyal supporter of the President throughout the primaries . The fact is he was fired because he unlike the current Attorney General , Wiliam Barr refused to cover up abuses of power by President Trump .


Pence: The fact is Jeff Sessions recused himself on day one , which made him completely ineffectual which is why he was replaced. I can tell you President Trump would have loved to have him in the senate and would have if Sessions told him about the fact he would recuse himself .


Klobuchar: The reason why Sessions recused himself was Sessions had ties to the President which related to the investigation so he had no choice but to recuse himself.

Woodruff: Moving on


Biden's  lead increases to 3.5 points after Debate





Biden/Klobuchar 278  50%
Trump/Pence 205  46.5%
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« Reply #32 on: February 13, 2020, 03:09:49 am »

Summary of the Townhall Presidential Debate Moderated by Lester Holt



Audience Member : President Trump, since you first began running back in 2015 you have made immigration your signature issue , so what have you done actually as President to secure the border and deal with this problem and what do you plan to do in your second term

Trump: Thank You for the question and the answer is quite frankly a lot . We have increased border security at the border, and have begun constructing the wall which should be built in a couple years. We have also increased vetting to make sure violent criminals do not come into this country but you are right there is a lot of work to be done. There needs to be a deal made about what to do with dreamers and frankley the Democrats keep blocking that effort and we also need to change our immigration system to make sure we can retain high skilled immigration and a Republican senator Mike Lee has sponsered that effort but as usual the Democrats are stopping it.


Biden: What President Trump just said there is all nothing but a falsehood. Just last year the Vox reported that illegal crossings were at an 11 year high which coincidently it coincides with the last time the Republicans were in the White House. The fact that he wants to make a deal with dreamers is a lie because if you remember in 2018 the Democrats offered him a deal that would fund his entire wall as long in exchange of giving Dreamers legal status and he turned it down because the fact is President Trump is more interested in using this issue to drive up voters in his base than actually doing something about it. All he actually has done on the issue is separate families and put kids in cages which is a total disgrace in every way as our country is supposed to stand up to things like that.


Trump: The Family Separations were done by President Obama and your administration while my administration ended it so what you are saying is fake news. Next that is not true the Democrats wanted much more than just DACA and shut down the government as well which is why a deal couldnt be made and the fact is we are building the wall.


Holt: We are moving on

Biden: Can I finish

Holt: 30 seconds

Biden: Actually that is not true Democrats offered you the entire wall for just reinstating DACA but you listened to Stephen Miller who told you to reject it


Holt: Moving on


Important Moment 2:


Audience Member: Vice President Biden, what will be your plan to deal with the skyrocketing costs of  living in this nation


Biden: Thank You for the question and the answer is first we must raise the minimum wage to $15 dollars an hour which will make it easier for working families in this nation to pay the rent due to the fact they will have more money in their pockets. Second we must reduce the cost of healthcare in this country and my plan is to put into place a Public Option which will give Americans a cheaper option to private insurance and force the private insurers to bring down costs to continue to attract customers. Then lastly we must work with city governments to increase funding for low-income housing all across the nation .

Trump: The Vice President is right wages must go up and the fact is in the past 4 years they have gone up 7% which makes it easier for Americans to afford their rent and we must continue that growth. The fact is raising the minimum wage to $15 dollars and hour will be a total disaster as many small businesses throught the nation cannot afford to hire employees at that cost so what that will do is throw people out of work which would make it even harder for people to pay the rent.

Lastly I want to throw this fact out , the state of Texas a state controlled by Republicans has much lower housing prices than the state of California and New York so its pretty obvious Democratic policies on this issue have been a total and huge failure while Republican policies on this issue have been a success.

Biden: First of all I am sure companies like Wall-Mart and Amazon can afford to pay their employees 15 dollars and hour and the cost to pay for such an increase is less than your tax cut to them so if your tax cut was as good as you claimed they should be able to afford that increase.Next again President Trump leaves out so many excuses, the reason Texas has low housing prices is that there is so much land where you can build new houses while that is not true for California.

Trump: Those are nothing but excuses for your party's failure Joe.

Holt : Moving on


Important Moment 3:

Audience Member: This is a question for both candidates, what would be your plan on the issue of criminal justice reform is you are elected

Holt: President Trump you can go first

Trump: Well the fact is my administration has done more on this issue than any other administration with the passing of the first step act which freed thousands of prisoners who shouldnt have been there. I also am in support of the second step act which will make it easier for inmates when they get out of prison to get jobs and in my second term we will pass that into law.


Biden: Well if you remember President Obama commuted thousands of sentences for nonviolent drug offender and I will do that again from day 1 as doing so will defacto help reform the criminal justice system. I will also appoint an attorney general who will recommend lesser sentences for future nonviolent offenders as well   . These are the things a President by himself and that is what I would do. Legislatively I will ask Congress to pass a bill decriminalizing marijuana


Trump: Well the fact is you are responsible for the broken system with you terrible crime bill you passed in 1994 and I have been cleaning up your mess. You were one of the biggest supporters of these terrible criminal justice reform policies over and over again and once you even joined forces with a segregationist, Strom Thurmond in that effort so the fact is you have been nothing but a failure on this issue Joe while I have been nothing but a success.


Biden: Unlike you I can admit when I was wrong and I was wrong on the issue, and so were you. You for one wrote an op-ed asking New York to sentence the Central Five to Death and even after they were exonerated you never apologized for that and instead doubled down which was nothing short of terrible. You also nominated two drug warriors, Jeff Sessions and William Barr to be the head of the justice department and have barely committed any nonviolent offenders



Trump: That is just fake news, I never doubled down on the central park five and what you are saying is a lie

Lester Holt: Actually you did in 2015


Trump: I was talking about how terrible the process was not doubling down and yes appointing Jeff Sessions was a mistake thats why I fired him and then in the senate primary this year made sure he didnt win the Republican nomination when I endorsed the great Coach Tommy Tuberville. So stop drying to hide behind your terrble record because my record ever since I got into politics has been better than yours


Holt: Moving On



Trump wins Debate , gets back within 2 points:





Biden/Klobuchar 264  49.5%
Trump/Pence 260  47.5%
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« Reply #33 on: February 13, 2020, 10:04:14 am »

Well written TL, but looks like your prediction was way off. Unless Biden makes a stunning comeback. Something I I don't see anymore.
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« Reply #34 on: February 13, 2020, 12:40:47 pm »

Either a narrow Trump win or a narrow Biden win.
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« Reply #35 on: February 13, 2020, 10:30:43 pm »

Summary of Final Presidential Debate Moderated by Margaret Brennan:



Important Moment 1:

Brennan: Vice President Biden, you have said you believe that the issue of climate change should be forefront in talks with other nations and at summits. If elected what would you do to get the world united to deal with the issue of Climate Change

Biden: Margaret, the first thing we need to do is re-enter the Paris climate change agreement to show the rest of the world that the US is willing to lead on this issue. Then what we need to do is we must point in climate change provisions in future trade deals to ensure that the rest of the world would join us in implementing policies that reduce emissions. President Trump, on the other hand, has taken us backward, getting us out of the Paris Climate Agreement which sent a message to the world that the US will go backward on the issue of climate change and PresidentTrump's regulatory policies on that have further sent that message.

We cannot afford to ignore this issue any longer and must deal with this issue now


Trump: The Paris Climate Change was a scam made to make the US pay more. The facts are that emissions have gone down under my watch because big goverment policies just do not work and the idea we have to negotiate trade deals based on more government regulations to ruin other nations economies is a big fat joke.

Biden: That mindset there is the exact problem because the fact is President Trump works for fossil fuel special interests who want him to make it seem like climate change is not a problem when it clearly is. By the way, it's just not Democrats who want something done about it, a poll of Republicans shows that they want something done on the issue, it is President Trump and the Special Interests he is afraid off .


Trump: You are the one controlled by special interests not me


Important Moment 2:

Brennan: President Trump you have made dealing with China one of your top priorities of your administration, and so far you have signed a phase 1 deal, so if you are reelected what types of pressure will you put too get a phase 2 deal passed or maybe an overall trade deal

Trump: As you know since it was only a Phase 1 Deal, we did not remove all our tariffs against China so, and until we get an overall trade deal passed those tariffs will remain in place. I have gotten to know President Xi and I can tell you I have a great relationship with President Xi so I am confident that we can pass a trade deal within a year or two into my second term.

Biden: The fact that you are bragging about having a great relationship with a leader who has flagrantly violated the human rights of his citizens while you go after allies truly makes no sense what so ever. The fact is it is more than high time that we go after China for their Human Rights abuses and place Sanctions against them for those abuses like putting a million  Uighurs in concentration camps. It is unacceptable that in the year 2020 that that type of human rights abuse happens and we should sanction them for that, request our allies which this President has destroyed relations to do the same.

As for a trade deal , it needs to be made clear that no trade deal be signed until they close down those concentration camps for good.


Trump: I have done far more against the Chinese than the Obama administration did, so while you are talking about doing things now why didnt you when you had the authority. Thats right you didnt have the guts to do so like I do


Biden: What you are saying is 100% false, we were working with our allies such as South Korea, a ally President Trump has estranged us with along with other allies in the nation to put a check on their military buildup , and negotiated a trade deal the TPP to put a check on China. Instead of ratifying that treaty you pulled us out of it and then lately you agreed to a phase one trade deal without any human rights guarantees.


Trump: I am not willing to ruin our chances of signing a trade deal like you are Joe. TPP would have resulted in millions of jobs being outsourced thats why I withdrew us from it

Biden: Whats more important: standing up for Human Rights or a Trade Deal, its clearly standing up for human rights and if that jeopardizes are the ability to sign a trade deal, then so be it as standing up for Human Rights and Human Dignity are more important.


Important Moment 3:

Brennan: Vice President Biden, You have criticized the way, President Trump withdrew troops from Northern Syria last year and is planning to withdraw troops from Afghanistan but didnt yours and President Obama's administration to the same thing in Iraq .

Biden: No if you remember that withdrawal plan was signed by George W Bush not our administration and it was the Iraqi government who then said we would only allow a residual force if we abide by certain laws which we as Americans obviously think are immoral so because of that we had no choice but to leave the way we did.

President Trump, on the other hand, was not asked to withdraw troops by the Kurds but did so which resulted in many innocent Kurds dying and now in Afghanistan he is negotiating an exit strategy with the Taliban out of all the people . What should have been done is negotiate an exit strategy with the government not the Tailban


Trump: The fact is your Iraqi withdrawal plan not Bush's led to the lead to the creation of ISIS which by the way I defeated. I believe we must withdraw troops from the middle east and yes to do so requires negotiating a deal with both sides.


Biden: That is absolutely false, it was Obama's administration which trained Iraqi forces to take down ISIS and most of ISIS territory was recaptured by the fall of 2016 while you took over in January of 2017 so what you are saying is false. The fact is Mr.President you decision to withdraw troops from North Syria resulted in the deaths of so many innocent Kurds, an ally of us who were instrumental in our win agianst ISIS and you betrayed them just so you can brag in your rallies you withdrew troops like you promised.


Trump: All of our troops have to get out at some point and I unlike your and Obama's administration who promised the same thing back in 2008 is actually keeping my word.

Biden: Wrong, you just moved those troops to Saudi Arabia so you have not withdrawn troops so you are misleading the people completely here.

Trump: Yes we put troops in Saudi Arabia because they were in threat of being attacked by Iran

Brennan : Moving on


Biden doubles lead in polls after strong debate performance:



Biden/Klobuchar 289  51%
Trump/Pence 189  47%


King: This is still a close election as if Trump wins all the pure tossup states and Arizona and Wisconsin he wins the Presidency but at this point Vice President Biden has the edge.
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« Reply #36 on: February 14, 2020, 12:52:27 am »

Final Polling Map of Campaign:

Wolf Blitzer: With only one day left till the 2020 Presidential Election , the final average of all polls in this campaign shows Vice President Biden with a 3 point lead over President Trump. Now lets go over to John King and to see what that means in the all-important electoral map

John King: Yes to remind viewers you need 270 votes to win and what our polling map is showing us is this



Biden/Klobuchar 268  51%
Trump/Pence 234  48%


King: So Vice President Biden only needs to win one of the 3 remaining states which are tied to win the election while President Trump needs to run the table but lets remember something , these polls have a range of error so that puts these states which are Tilt in play. So President Trump can get to 270 if he loses one of of these 3 states if he wins Pennsylvania which is ironically where he will be holding his last rally of the campaign.

On the other hand Vice President Biden is holding his last rally in Atlanta, Georgia as say he loses all those states or two of those states and Pennsylvania then taking Georgia away from the Trump column will make him the next President.


Blitzer: Thanks John, and to remind our viewers we will start election coverage at 6:45 PM ET tomorrow and at 7:00 PM ET we can start telling you the real result so I hope you join us tomorrow evening  for our coverage of Election Night 2020
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« Reply #37 on: February 14, 2020, 03:15:40 am »

Prediction: Biden wins with 289 EVs; takes back Rust Belt + AZ.
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« Reply #38 on: February 14, 2020, 08:51:59 am »

Has there been an October surprise yet?
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« Reply #39 on: February 14, 2020, 09:44:20 am »

Has there been an October surprise yet?

No and there won’t be for this election
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« Reply #40 on: February 14, 2020, 07:19:50 pm »

So far an ordinary election.
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« Reply #41 on: February 14, 2020, 10:41:24 pm »

CNN - America's Choice 2020(Exit Polls)



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs

Race:

White: 69% ; Trump 58% Biden 40%
Hispanics: 13% ; Biden 70% Trump 29%
African-Americans: 12% ; Biden 89% Trump 10%
Asian: 5% ; Biden 60% Trump 39%
Other: 2% ; Biden 61% Trump 37%


Sex:

Male : 48% ; Trump 54% Biden 45%
Female : 52% ; Biden 57% Trump 42%


Age:

18-29: 20%: Biden 62% Trump 36%
30-44: 26%: Biden 55% Trump 44%
45-64: 39%: Trump 54% Biden 45%
65+ :  15%: Trump 53% Biden 46%


Income:

Under 50k: 35% ; Biden 56%, Trump 42%
50k-100k: 32% ; Trump 51%, Biden 48%
100k-250k: 27%; Trump 50%, Biden 49%
250k+: 6%: Biden 49%, Trump 49%

State of Economy:

Good: 65% ; Trump 64% Biden 35%
Not Good: 35%: Biden 81% Trump 18%



Tapper: From these numbers, they look much closer to 2016 than they do with 2018 but I would say they line up with the final pre election polls, that Vice Preisdent Biden has the edge

King: Looking at the economy numbers, it is stunning that this election is not a 1996 style reelection victory for President Trump given those numbers . The fact is the phrase Let Trump be Trump probably helped him win in 2016 but if he loses tonight, Let Trump be Trump cost him big.
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« Reply #42 on: February 15, 2020, 04:34:32 am »

My guess is the electoral vote totals from 2016 are reversed as Biden flips AZ, GA, MI, NE-02, PA, and WI, therefore getting 306 EVs (with around a 5 point PV win). NC might also flip though, guessing it is held by Trump with a very narrow margin.
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« Reply #43 on: February 16, 2020, 01:38:33 am »
« Edited: February 16, 2020, 01:50:53 am by Old School Republican »

CNN - America's Choice 2020(Hour One)



7:00 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs

Blitzer: Welcome to CNN's coverage of the 2020 Election, will Donald Trump be going back to the oval office for four more years or will Joe Biden accomplish his long time ambition to becoming the President of the United States. We should know the answer a few hours from now and right now the first polls have closed tonight and we can project that President Trump will carry the states of Indiana and Kentucky while Vice President Biden will carry the state of Vermont. The states of Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia and Florida are all too early to call at the moment



Trump 19
Biden 3

Cooper: So far no surprise what so ever but again looking at those exit polls things do look favorable for the Vice President

Lemon: While we have declared Mitch McConnell the winner are exit poll shows he will only win it by around 9-10 points which is a favorable sign for Senate Democrats tonight

Borger: It really is and this exit poll looking at it is that female voters tonight came out against the President huge and if he loses thats what will cost him. Another striking factor is now how unmarried men are more Republican than Married Women which really shows how stark the gender divide has become in this country.


7:30


Blitzer: The polls have closen in 3 more states and we can now project that President Trump will carry the states of West Virginia and South Carolina while the states of North Carolina , and Ohio at this moment are too early to call



Trump 33
Biden 3

Blitzer: Lets go to John King for an update on important states like Georgia and Florida


King: Well right now Vice President Biden has the lead in Florida but remember the pattern in Florida is the early count favors the Democrats, then for the bulk of the night the count favors the Republican and then in the end the count favors the Democrats heavily so the question is in some key counties how is President Trump doing. Well for example its not a key county but in Miami-Dade 4 years ago Hillary Clinton won Miami Dade 63.7%-34.1% , while right now Joe Biden is up 61%-37% which is good news for President Trump if he can keep it .


In Georgia well forget about the percentage cause like Virginia the early vote almost heavily favors the Republicans as rural areas come in faster but some precients in the Atlanta suburbs have come and right now Vice President Biden holds a double digit in Gwinnet and 8 point lead in Cobb which if you look at the 2018 race in Georgia , Abrams won both by double digits but narrowly lost the state, so this state likely will go down the wire.

The Senate races are almost going evenly with the Presidential race right now


Van Jones: I feel Georgia along with North Carolina and Arizona will be the rust belt of this election in which solid states for one party for a whole generation flip .
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« Reply #44 on: February 16, 2020, 02:45:13 am »

CNN - America's Choice 2020(Hour One)



8:00 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs


Blitzer: It is 8 PM in the east and we can report to you our first patch of major poll closings tonight . We can project President Trump will carry the states of Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, and Oklahoma while Vice President Biden will carry the states of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Deleware, Maryland, Illionis and the District of Columbia  




Trump 76
Biden 75


Tapper: In a key senate race call we can project that former Auburn Football Coach Tommy Tuberville will be the next senator from Alabama defeating Democratic Senator Doug Jones. Not a surprise at all but still means Democrats need 4 or 5 seats to take the senate depending on the results of the Presidential Race

Cooper: Most likely 4 as I would say its easier to get to 270 then 4 senate seats

King: I agree and I think the key will be Georgia and if Vice President Biden can win it or not because if he doesnt Democrats probably dont take the senate.

Right now hes doing great in key precincts though , at this point the President still has a slight advantage here

Senate: R+1

8:30

Blitzer: The polls have closed in Arkansas and we can project that President Trump will carry the state and its 6 electoral votes



Trump 82
Biden 75


Blitzer: Lets go to John King to see how some of the key states are doing

King: Well first in Florida where we can see President Trump has taken a lead and Penellas County a swing county he is outperfoming his 2016 numbers so its still early but at this point I would say Florida leans strongly to President Trump

Now in North Carolina another swing state a county is New Hanover county and currently Vice President Biden leads by 3 points, while President Trump won a few years ago but remember Governor Cooper won by nearly 5 points there and still barely won the state. Another key county is Granville county which President Trump and Vice President Biden are trading leads. So at this point I would say this state is still a pure tossup but its tilting more to the Vice President

In Georgia , as you can see President Trump still has a huge lead statewide but its dwindling as Fulton county comes in and the once Republican suburbs. If you go back in time , remember George W Bush won Cobb and Gwinnett with over 63% of the vote in 2004 and as late as 2012 they were viewed as safely Republican now those counties are helping the Dems carve out a pathaway to victory in Georgia. Will it come we dont know but it could be the Pennsylvania of this election if it flips


King: Another piece of Bad news for the President is in Virginia , Vice President Biden has just taken the lead and with much of NoVA to count is likely he will easily win this . On the other hand some good news is in Ohio , President Trump barely trails and with more of the suburbs and rural Ohio coming in, Ohio seems very likely to go for Preisdent Trump


Cooper: lets bring in our team

Navarro: Well I am probably gonna be disappointed with my home state of Florida as it looks like President Trump will win that state but at this point I will say thse results actually look worse for him than that exit poll does

Cuomo: The way things are going so far , I would say this election so far is not only advantage Joe Biden but clearly so.

Santorum: All of you are clearly just overreacting, I think the Rust Belt will put Trump once again over the 270 mark tonight and those states have barely come in other than the very Democratic areas in Pennsylvania


Tapper: Some interesting thing I have to say is senator Susan Collins in Maine while outperforming President Trump only by around points which is not good news for Senator Collins at all.


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« Reply #45 on: February 16, 2020, 08:55:38 pm »
« Edited: February 16, 2020, 09:23:53 pm by Old School Republican »

CNN - America's Choice 2020(Hour Three)



9:00 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs

Wolf Blitzer: It is 9 in the east and CNN can project that President Trump will win the states of Louisiana, Kansas, 4 of the 5 electoral votes in Nebraska, North and South Dakota, and Wyoming while Vice President Biden will win the states of New York , Virginia and New Mexico. Currently, the states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, Arizona, New , and Texas are all too early too call.



Biden 122
Trump 109

The big one on the map is Texas being too early to call and the last time Texas was not called at polling time was all the way back in 1992 when President George HW Bush won a narrow win in Texas

Tapper: That is right and if you remember that was before 1994 the year Texas became the Republican state we have known since then and 2018 and 2020 are signs that their dominance is beginning to show some cracks .

King: Yes and the fact is Texas still will very likely go to President Trump , as he currently holds the lead and their is still much of rural , exurban counties too count as well as the still Republican suburbs . From what we got so far is that Collin County a suburb north of Dallas is still going to the President by around 11-12 points, Tarrant a county which people have long called a Texas bellwather is going to the President by around 3 points so far so right now I would say it probably will be within 5-6 points but this state likely will go for the President. Another shock was Virginia which from 1952-2004 only voted for a Democrat once going Democratic so quickly and the only question is does  Vice President Biden break President Bush's 04 mark as best performance in Virginia post cold war.


Tapper: Stand by we have some key senate projections to make and that is we can project that Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen will be reelected in New Hampshire and Republican senator John Cornyn will be reelected in Texas. Ok back to you John how are some states like Pennsylvania going

King: Well right now Vice President Biden still has a massive lead but as these rural counties trickle in , that lead will dwindle so the question is can his lead hold and right now he looks in better shape than Hilalry just by looking at Philli metro. Hes winning 85% of the vote in Philadelphia county, and is so far winning over 60% in Montgomery and Deleware counties, and winning Lackawanna County by 8-9 points . So right now Pennslyvnia looks very good for the Vice President


Van Jones: Right now I feel much better than I did in 2016 and the NY Times meter for who wins the Presidency , remember last time around this time Trump became the favorite and then started surging well now its meter is saying Vice President Biden has an 85% chance of becoming the next President which shows that most likely the Democrats will take back the White House

Borger: Agreed and look at the House we are projecting Democrats will have anywhere from 229-236 seats at the end of the night so a solid win there too.


Santorum: Well right now I think we will lose Pennslyvania but remember if we take Wisconsin , Trump will win so its not over.


9:40:


Blitzer: We have some major projections to make and that is President Trump will carry the states of Texas and Ohio. Once again this is no surprise as Texas is a very Republican state and Ohio seems to be on its way of becoming one. In Maine, we can project that Vice President Biden will win 3 of the 4 Electoral votes in Maine while 1 of them will go to President Trump



Trump 166
Biden 125


Cooper: Not a surprise but that does give President Trump a solid lead int he electoral college so far.

Tapper: Yes but remember the West Coast hasnt had its polls there and it has 74 electoral votes which are solid for the Democrats

Blitzer: Stand by and we have another call to make and that is NBC News can now project that Colorado will be won by Vice President Biden



Trump 166
Biden 134


9:55:

Tapper: We have a key race alert and that is in the Colorado senate race, former Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper will win defeating Republican senator Cory Gardner. So the overall net change in the senate goes back to 0 for either side


Net Chance in Senate: None
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« Reply #46 on: February 16, 2020, 09:20:22 pm »


Tapper: Yes but remember the West Coast hasnt had its polls there and it has 71 electoral votes which are solid for the Democrats


74. Cali and Oregon are 62, then Washington with 12 brings it to 74
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« Reply #47 on: February 16, 2020, 09:23:21 pm »


Tapper: Yes but remember the West Coast hasnt had its polls there and it has 71 electoral votes which are solid for the Democrats


74. Cali and Oregon are 62, then Washington with 12 brings it to 74

Lol true , ok I will edit it
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« Reply #48 on: February 16, 2020, 09:36:01 pm »

What about the senate race in Michigan?
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« Reply #49 on: February 16, 2020, 09:52:34 pm »

What about the senate race in Michigan?

Not enough data in so far so its still too early to call . John King will talk about Michigan early next hour when there is more data
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