A Campaign which will Shape a New Decade- A 2020 Election Prediction Mini TL

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN - America's Choice 2020(Hour Four)



10:00 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs

Blitzer: Its 10 PM in the East and we can now project that President Trump will carry the states of Utah and Montana while Vice President Biden will win his running mate Senator Amy Klobuchar's home state of Minnesota.the states of Iowa and Nevada are too early to call

Trump 175
Biden 144

Lemon: This is indeed huge as if you remember Minnesota wasnt called until early morning the day after the election so this in my opinion bodes well for the Democrats in a state like Wisconsin

King: Yes it does and lets now look at Wisconsin and lets remind you where the key Democratic and Republican strengths are. Basically Democrats strength in the states comes from the big cities Madison and Milwaukee while the Republican strengths come from the suburbs in Milwaukee called the WOW counties and in the North East of the state. The swing area is down here in SW WI and right now such as Grand and Crawford counties where right now Vice President Biden as the slight lead and in WOW , while the President hasnt lost ground from 2016 he hasnt gained ground either while in the big cities Vice President has.

Now lets go over to neigboring Michigan which was a state what shocked us the most in 2016 and here and you can already see problems for President Trump, in Macomb county a large suburb of Detriot 4 years ago President Trump won by 11.5 points last time , he is only winning by 5 points this year, is trailing in Oakland County another suburb by double digits and in Wayne County , Vice President Biden is getting 70% of the vote. In Kent County, a county that has only voted Democratic only 3 times in the past 100 hundred years and once in the past 50 is right now seemingly going towards the Democrats which is not good news for President Trump. Right now I would say Michigan like the polls said lean towards the Democrats


On the other hand for the Senate race , it is much closer as Republican John James is winning Macomb by double digits, winning Kent so this Michigan senate race at this point is clearly a tossup .


Cooper: One thing , is that unlike in 2016 the polls were not wrong and if they were its looking like they were wrong in favor of President Trump.



10:40:

Blitzer: Some more good news for the Biden camp and that is Vice President Biden will carry the state of Michigan and its 16 electoral votes marking officially our first flip from 2016

Trump 175
Biden 160


Tapper: In the Senate race we can project that long time Republican Senator Susan Collins will go down int defeat to her Democratic challanger, Sara Gideon meaning the Democrats so far have picked up one seat tonight

Overall Change in the senate: D+1


King: Florida is one of the only states tonight where President Trump is doing better than he did in 2016 and the reason is he has overperformed in Miami, did very well in the I-4 Corridor and got out turnout in the Panhandle so at this point I think President Trump will win the state

Cooper: Stand by for a projection

Blitzer: Yes and that is that Florida and it's very important 29 Electoral Votes will go to President Trump

Trump 204
Biden 160


Tapper: A piece for good news for the Republicans tonight is Joni Ernst will have won her reelection bid in Iowa.

[538Electoral]

Biden has 238 no matter what. He likely narrowly wins the presidency at this point.

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN - America's Choice 2020(Hour Four)



11:00 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs

Blitzer: The polls have closen int he West and we can project that Vice President Biden will win the states of California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii while President Trump will win the state of Idaho

Biden 238
Trump 208

Cooper: No surprise there at all but it does give the Vice President an electoral college lead once again tonight.

Lemon: For people who want to know the NY Times is now saying that Vice President Biden as a 95% chance of being elected the next President and lets go over to John King to see why

King: Well first lets remember that President Trump won last time due to very narrow margins in Pennslyvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Well now this time in Pennslyvania for one , the President is doing worse in the Philadelphia suburbs than he did 4 years ago, slightly worse in SW Pennslyvania and is losing Erie county and at this point, I dont see much of a pathway left for the President left in the state and we should be able to call it within the next 10-15 minutes.

Michigan has already been called for Vice President Biden so that just leaves Wisconsin and right now again he is losing many counties in SW Wisconsin which he won last time, doing worse in Madison and Milkawake and has barely gained any ground in the Milwaukee suburbs but its still early here and there are many precincts out so the President still has a chance there. Now if for sake of argument he loses Wisconsin too he must win New Hampshire and Nevada to be reelected and while New Hampshire is as ususal extremely close , Nevada isnt looking good at all for him with Vice President Biden winning Clark County by far the largest county in the state by more than 15 points and winning Washoe as well so this one is likely to go for Biden too.


At this point while the President still has a path left to being reelected its not gonna be easy at all.


Van Jones: This night I can tell you feels so much different from 4 years ago, as not only is the Rust Belt seemingly going to us , but North Carolina seems to be going for us as well, and we have a great shot at Georgia too.

Navarro: I think tonight is the voters finally sending a message they have had enough with choas, and unprofessionalism in the Oval Office and are voting for stability at last . It also seems like many voters are punishing the Republicans for not showing a backbone against this man and right now I would say the Democrats will probably take the Senate as well.


11:15:

Blitzer: We have a huge projection to make and that is Vice President Biden will carry the critical state of Pennslynvia and it's very crucial 20 electoral votes

Biden 258
Trump 208


Tapper: This is a huge because with Nevada going towards the Vice President all he needs is just one of the other outstanding states witht he exception of New Hampshire to get reelected.

Bash: Yes and this point it looks very much like that getting more than 300 electoral votes is possible

King : Yes it is because to do so the Vice President would just need the Rust Belt, Arizona and either North Carolina and Georgia. Arizona we likely wont be able to make a call for but North Carolina at this point seems to favor the Vice President as well with strong performance in the suburbs, and while Georgia is still I would say leaning towards Trump there is almost around a 2/5th chance the Vice President wins it.


11:40:

Blitzer: CNN can make another key state projection and that is we can now project that Vice President Biden will win the state of Nevada and its 6 electoral votes.

Biden 264
Trump 208


Tapper: We can also project that Senator Peters the Democrat will narrowly hold of the Republican John James in the Michigan Seante Race. In the Georgia Special Election we can also project that Congressman Doug Collins will advance to the runoff to face Reverand Raphael Warnock .

Cuomo: That is not the Republican, the GOP wanted to advance to the runoff.


King: Yes they are not and that is that if you look at the Regular Senate race, while it looks very likely that Senator David Perdue will eke out a 2-2 and half point win you can see he did so as he managed to keep his margins in the Atlanta suburban counties like Cobb very very close while Collings is considered to be even a worse fit than Trump and right now I will say the Presidential race there will be decided by less than a point.


As for the other senate race , North Carolina seems to be exactly tracking the Presidential election with Tillis only outperforming the president by less than a tenth of a point so at this point whoever wins the state of North Carolina likely will drag their party's Senate candidate across the finish line as  well

[morgankingsley]

Guess: trump keeps Iowa and North Carolina and loses the rest. I can maybe see you giving him Georgia as an extra bone but thats it

[OSR stands with Israel]

Guess: trump keeps Iowa and North Carolina and loses the rest. I can maybe see you giving him Georgia as an extra bone but thats it

So you are predicting that Biden will win Alaska as thats still out

[morgankingsley]

Guess: trump keeps Iowa and North Carolina and loses the rest. I can maybe see you giving him Georgia as an extra bone but thats it

So you are predicting that Biden will win Alaska as thats still out

In my defense I forgot Alaska existed for a second

[UWS]

And even at that hour NH is still too close to be called?

[OSR stands with Israel]

And even at that hour NH is still too close to be called?

I think NH will be once again close this time whether the Dems win the presidency or not . Also NH being very small means that unless their is more than a 5 point gap between the candidates it won’t be called until after midnight .

[538Electoral]

Congratulations Biden.

[BigVic]

Trump wins 270-268. Sweeps the remaining states.

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN - America's Choice 2020(Hour Five)



12:17 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs

Blitzer: CNN Can Now Project that Vice President Joe Biden will win the state of New Hampshire and its 4 electoral votes meaning that Joe Biden is just 2 electoral votes away from being elected the next President of the United States.

Biden 268
Trump 208


Cooper: At this point I would say the race pretty much looks like its a done deal, of course we cant officially say that yet but its hard to see how President Trump comes back to win.

King: Yes at this point all Vice President Biden needs to do is win just one state and he will get over the top and right now Vice President Biden is leading in Wisconsin with 95% of the vote in by around 2 points which is a lot to make up for President Trump , is leading in North Carolina with 98% of the vote in by around half a percentage point , and is only trailing in Georgia by one fifth of a percentage point with 99% in. In Arizona Trump does currently has lead but remember there are still lots of vote to count in Arizona and those votes will likely be heavy Democratic so we likely wont get a result here for days.

Tapper: We do have some good news for the Republicans and that is Senator David Perdue will be reelected narrowly in Georgia meaning as of this moment Republicans will control 48 Seats to the Democrats 48 so it is tied at the moment but with Alaska almost certainly going to them it likely will give them a 49-48 lead in the seante  .

Bash: Yes but at this point I would say the Senate is more likely to actually go Democratic because Senator Martha McSally is underperforming Trump in Arizona and she actually had a bigger lead at this point two years ago in a race which she ended up losing and in North Carolina , Tillis and Trump are basically performing equally so with the state of that race that gives the Democrats 50 senate seats and with the Presidency that means they will control the senate as well


Breaking News: Joe Biden Elected President of the United States

12:42 am:

Blitzer: We have a major projection to make right now

Joe Biden Elected President[/size]
 
We can now project that former Vice President and former long time senator Joe Biden will become the 46th President of the United States and will become the first challenger in 28 years to knock off an incumbent president . The reason for that is we are now able to project that the state of Wisconsin will be won by Vice President Biden meaning that Vice President Biden now will have won 278 electoral votes crossing the 270 electoral vote threshold you need to be elected.

Biden 278
Trump 208


Van Jones: Tonight was indeed a great night and Vice President Biden now President-Elect Biden ran a great campaign and needs to be applauded for it.

Navarro: All I am feeling is the relief knowing we will once again have an adult in the White House again

Santorum: Well this was not the result I was hoping for but the people made their choice and I respect that and will be praying for President-Elect Biden's to be successful.

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN - America's Choice 2020(Hour Six )



1:00 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs

Blitzer: Its 1:00 AM in the East and CNN can project that Alaska will be won by President Trump and that President-Elect Biden will win one of the five electoral votes in Nebraksa

Biden 279
Trump 211


1:22:

Blitzer: CNN can now project the results in two more states and that is President-Elect Biden will win the state of North Carolina while President Trump will win the state of Iowa

Biden 294
Trump 217

King: Yup with 99% of the precincts in there is at this point less raw votes outstanding than what Vice President Biden's lead of .4 points so due to that we can project that Vice President Biden will indeed win the state


1:35:

Tapper: CNN Can make a projection in a senate race and that is Democrat State Senator Cal Cunningham will defeat Republican Senator Tom Tillis to become the next Senator of North Carolina. This means the Democrats now will hold 49 senate seats to the Republicans 49 and they just need to win the Arizona senate race or the Georgia Special to win control of the Senate will Republicans need both to hold on.


Blitzer: We have some breaking news to report to you and that is President Trump has indeed phoned Vice President Biden and conceded the election and will give his concession speech within 15 minutes at Mar a-logo .

Bash: Well the fact is there is no way the President can win this election now as all the states we have called with the exception of North Carolina dont come close to meeting the threshold of a recount let alone one being actually conducted and that along gives Vice President Biden 279 electoral votes thus still puts him over the top so the President really had no choice but to concede.


Lemon: Well the fact is he may have conceded but we dont have a clue if it will be gracious or not .

[BigVic]

Biden wins. Hope it happens in real life.

[BigVic]

Trump wins 270-268. Sweeps the remaining states.

It's good to know I'm wrong.

[OSR stands with Israel]

President Trump's concession speech:



Trump: A Short While ago , I called Vice President Biden and congratulated him on winning the election and invited him to the White House where we can work together to ensure a smooth transition(Mix of Boos and Appluase). While this was not the outcome I or any of you wanted, it has happened and we have to respect that and wish the President-Elect success(Applause). That does not mean though we have to wish the media well because the people who cost us this election were the fake news media who falsely reported on everything we did over the past 4 years just to make sure this very day happens, from the fake Russia Hoax to Impeachment to lies about everything I said and I can tell you we should never forgive them for this(Applause).

The fact is thanks to our policies, our economy is booming and the history books will show that our presidency was the greatest one-term presidency in American history and frankly show our presidency was the greatest in the modern era with the possible exception of Ronald Reagan(Applause). Even the Ronald Reagan never faced the fake hostile media we did or faced an opposition that made it a goal to make sure we fail so all things taken into account our presidency was the greatest in the modern era(Applause) .

It has been my honor to represent you for the past 4 years and have your support , and I will always remember that(Applause). Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America


President-Elect Biden's victory speech:




Biden: A Short While Ago I spoke with President Trump and he congratulated us on winning the White House and we both agreed to make sure we work with each other to ensure a smooth transition(Applause). It is time after this long and at times divisive election, to bring our nation together regardless of party so we work to help solve the problems our nation faces(Applause), and today is not the ending of our work but a new beginning. Tonight we begin our work to make sure we can have nation where everyone regardless of income can afford healthcare(Applause), build an economy that benefits everyone in our nation(Applause), deal with the effects go global climate change(Applause) and strengthen our alliances around the world to deal with threats(Applause) and I will need all your help to do so because like President Obama said it is not us who create change, it is you the people(Applause).

It is you the people who deserve credit for this win and I want to thank you and I promise that I will work hard every day to keep the trust you gave in me(Applause). I want to thank all my volunteers who fought hard in both the primaries and general election to help make this day happen(Applause) and thank my family who gave me the support to go this far(Applause). Thank You , May God Bless You and May God Bless America(Applause)

[OBD]

This is the best possible timeline that we don't deserve. Nice job!

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is the best possible timeline that we don't deserve. Nice job!

Thanks

[libertpaulian]

Great so far!  Can't wait to see the final results of Election Night, and if Biden can flip AZ and/or GA.  How the House and Senate look.  And governors and state legislatures.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Great so far!  Can't wait to see the final results of Election Night, and if Biden can flip AZ and/or GA.  How the House and Senate look.  And governors and state legislatures.

The Senate so far is 49-49 with Arizona still undecided due to how long it takes to get results in AZ and the GA special senate race is going to a runoff between Collins and Warnock.


As for the house , Democrats have kept control and will have between 229-236 seats (final number I will tell when I write up the final results post ).


Governor they all stayed the same except Montana which it’s close but it’s favoring the Republican candidate right now .


Feel free to make some cabinet predictions too and I am happy you have enjoyed the TL it

[President Johnson]

YEEES! Uncle Joe! Oh please let this come true in the end. I can dream, right?

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN - America's Choice 2020(Hour Seven )



2:41 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uvpd4myQXs

Blitzer: As we cut from our coverage to show you President Trump's concession speech and President-Elect Biden's victory speech CNN was able to project that President Trump did win the state of Georgia and in the Montana Gubernatorial Race - Republican Tim Fox will win making it the only flip for Gubernatorial races tonight

Biden 294
Trump 233

So what did you guys think of President Trump's Concession Speech and President-Elect Biden's victory speech

Bash: Well I was surprised how gracious President Trump concession speech started out but then it became clear it was not going to be gracious at all when he started blaming the media for his defeat and basically spoke on and on about that. As for the President I think it was a nice victory speech though obviously no where near as memorable as Obama's back in 2008 .

Van Jones: The speeches went exactly like I thought,  President Trump concedes the election but in his speech makes it clear who he blames for the defeat while President-Elect Biden's gave a uniting speech which our country desperately need after probably the most divisive 15 year period since reconstruction and I hope our nation can reunite over the next 4 years

Blitzer: Well since we will not be able to make a projection in the presidential or senate race in Arizona we will end our election coverage although there is still much to discuss which we will during our regular programming

[538Electoral]

Biden will win AZ. 305-233

[OSR stands with Israel]

Democrats Win Control of Senate as Mark Kelly wins Arizona in Senate race and Vice President Biden wins Arizona's 11 electoral votes.

Blitzer: As you know this year , the state of Arizona decided to just release the results of all its mail in ballots at once and the results after those are counted are that Vice President Joe Biden will win the state of Arizona and in the Senate , the Democrat Mark Kelly will win the seante race which means the Democrats will win control of the seante regardless of the results of the Georgia senate race due to the fact that they will control the Vice Presidency.


Final Results of Election:


Presidential:

Former Vice President Joe Biden(D-DE)/Senator Amy Klobuchar(D-MN) 305 51.5%
President Donald Trump(R-FL)/Vice President Mike Pence(R-IN) 233 47.4%


States decided by 10 points or less:

Georgia: Trump 49.8% Biden 49.5%
North Carolina: Biden 49.7% Trump 49.3%
Arizona: Biden 50.1% Trump 48.8%
Wisconsin: Biden 50.3%, Trump 48.7%(Tipping Point State)
New Hampshire: Biden 50.4%, Trump 48.5%
Florida: Trump 50.7% Biden 48.6%
Iowa: Trump 50.5%, Biden 48.3%
Pennsylvania: Biden 50.8% , Trump 48.3%
Michigan: Biden 51.1% Trump 48
Nevada: Biden 51.5%, Trump 47.2%
Minnesota: Biden 51.8% Trump 47.1%
Ohio: Trump 52.2% Biden 46.9%
Texas: Trump 52.3%, Biden 46.6%
Maine: Biden 52.6%, Trump 46.1%
Colorado: Biden 53.1% Trump 45.8%
Virginia: Biden 53.5%, Trump 45.5%


Senate:

Note: Florida on the map stands for Georgia Special Election

Democrats 50(+3)
Republicans 49(-3)
To be Decided in Runoff: 1

House of Representatives:

Democrats: 232(-3)
Republicans: 203(+4)

Gubernatorial Races

Republicans: 27(+1)
Democrats: 23(-1)

[OBD]

Arizona

[OSR stands with Israel]

DNC Chair Tom Perez to head transition team for President-Elect Biden and will become his Chief of Staff once he takes office

Head of Transition team and Chief of Staff: DNC Chair Tom Perez




Tapper: These choices is no surprise and was widely expected , but now the question becomes who will be the new DNC Chair as since there will be a Democrat in the White, President-Elect Biden will get to pick. Some names we are hearing as part of that short list are: Stacey Abrams, Beto O'Rourke, Andrew Cuomo , Eric Garcetti, and Richard Cordray .



Former President Obama announces he will not accept any Cabinet Role and reiterates he has retired from politics.



Lemon: I know you have said no to this question in the past, but given your popularity all around the world and given how many of our relationships with our allies has gone down over the past few years would you accept say a role as Secretary of State and before you say anything let me finish.

Obama: No Don, I would not as I have given Michelle a promise that after I left office I would retire from politics officially and I fully intend to keep that promise. Besides, there are tons of people who are qualified for the job and would do a great job as Secretary of State so I dont see the need for me to come back into politics .

Lemon: Will you still advise the President-Elect

Obama: Of course, but only privately and not in any official role


President-Elect Biden meets President Trump in transition meeting:



Trump: I just had a fantastic conversation with President-Elect Biden and I look forward to working with him over the next few weeks to make sure their is a proper and smooth transition because while I am was not happy of the results of the election , a huge part caused by the fake news media, I care about America First so I will do my best to ensure a smooth transition.

Biden: It was good meeting the President and his team to talk about ways we can make this transtion period as smooth as possible and I look forward to working with him over the next few weeks to make sure we have a smooth transition.

Trump: Thank You