California trending R?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 05:55:03 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  California trending R?
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3]
Author Topic: California trending R?  (Read 5379 times)
QAnonKelly
dotard
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,995


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: March 04, 2020, 01:26:18 PM »

I mean mathematically they just don't have much room to fall so it's going to eventually trend R. Probably not for another ten years or so tho.
Logged
Yellowhammer
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,683
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: March 06, 2020, 07:30:00 PM »

It might slightly trend R just because there isn't much room left for Republicans to fall, but it probably won't. If it does it won't be a very meaningful trend. I'd expect rural Northern California and perhaps some counties in the Central Valley to trend R, with everything else staying more or less the same or trending D. There is potential for there to be Clinton - Trump counties though, (Lake, Stanislaus).
Logged
HeavenOrLasVegas
Newbie
*
Posts: 13
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: March 10, 2020, 12:38:18 PM »

I just registered here to reply to this thread.

I've been involved in CAGOP politics from the sidelines (with candidates and such) for around 15 years. Aside from trends in the voting populace, the party in California has been on a steady decline since 2000 with boneheaded leadership and it has become a carcass for vulture consultants, not to mention the current chair is a never Trumper and of course, the most active CAGOP folks love Trump.

I won't say for whom I blame for most of the CAGOP's decline, but let me just say that I hope and pray Harley Rouda wins again in the 48th CD because I despise his opponent's husband.

John Cox was an awful gubernatorial nominee. He disappeared after winning the primary. At least Kashkari had a principled loss. And Cox managed to still get ~41%.

The real test for 2020 is CA-25 and CA-39. Those fall and the party has no chance of recovery.

As someone who lives in Los Angeles County, if the trends in taxes and homelessness in the area stand, then I could see Republicans like Barger possibly making inroads.
Logged
Cyrusman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,328
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: March 27, 2020, 06:24:39 PM »

I just registered here to reply to this thread.

I've been involved in CAGOP politics from the sidelines (with candidates and such) for around 15 years. Aside from trends in the voting populace, the party in California has been on a steady decline since 2000 with boneheaded leadership and it has become a carcass for vulture consultants, not to mention the current chair is a never Trumper and of course, the most active CAGOP folks love Trump.

I won't say for whom I blame for most of the CAGOP's decline, but let me just say that I hope and pray Harley Rouda wins again in the 48th CD because I despise his opponent's husband.

John Cox was an awful gubernatorial nominee. He disappeared after winning the primary. At least Kashkari had a principled loss. And Cox managed to still get ~41%.

The real test for 2020 is CA-25 and CA-39. Those fall and the party has no chance of recovery.

As someone who lives in Los Angeles County, if the trends in taxes and homelessness in the area stand, then I could see Republicans like Barger possibly making inroads.

I live in California in Orange County.

Two questions

1.) in your opinion are there any seats they lost in 2018 that the GOP can win back in 2020?

2.) do you think California will ever vote republican in a governor election again anytime in the next few decades? Similar to how blue states like Massachusetts and Maryland have republican governors
Logged
S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,257
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: April 14, 2020, 02:47:15 PM »

California won't trend R in any significant sense. Instead, it's trending D and the state just seems to get worse and worse for the GOP. For instance, Orange County, long a GOP stronghold flipped and OC's congressional delegation is now all Democratic. Now in 2020, Reps could flip back say CA-48 and CA-39, but that doesn't mean that the state is trending R, that just means that seats that were once Safe R and represented a GOP stronghold in the state are now tossups or even leaning Democratic (if those seats don't flip), that's a clear sign of a Democratic trend.
Logged
Flyersfan232
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,794


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: June 15, 2020, 03:49:44 PM »

Depends on how many right wing 2016 third parties voters go to trump in 2020
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.026 seconds with 11 queries.