California trending R?

[morgankingsley]

Maybe in the distant future, sooner or later there will be a peak for the democrats, and it will obviously start to slowly trend republican then, but right now it will not matter at all

[Arbitrage1980]

California does have a massive illegal alien problem, but let's not get into conspiracy theory (I do wish Democrats support voter ID).

But yes, Trump's 30 point loss in 2016 was a low point and he will obviously do better there in 2020. Against Bernie, I could see him losing the state by 15-20 points due to Bernie doing worse than Hillary in Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, Imperial, San Diego counties. Trump will lose the state of course, but reducing the margin could flip the OC congressional seats.

[cvparty]

California does have a massive illegal alien problem, but let's not get into conspiracy theory (I do wish Democrats support voter ID).

But yes, Trump's 30 point loss in 2016 was a low point and he will obviously do better there in 2020. Against Bernie, I could see him losing the state by 15-20 points due to Bernie doing worse than Hillary in Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, Imperial, San Diego counties. Trump will lose the state of course, but reducing the margin could flip the OC congressional seats.

omg

[AN63093]

Depends on what you mean by "trend."

If you mean it in the colloquial/non-Atlas sense, to just describe the state's overall lean over time, then the answer is obviously no.

If you mean it in the more technical/Atlas sense, then the answer is maybe- it depends on the national swing and whether Dems are maxed out in CA (which if they aren't yet, they soon will be).  I think it's more likely to happen in 2024, but yeah- at some point the GOP will have bottomed out in CA and there will be a nation-wide D swing based on improvement in the PV elsewhere.. at that point yes, I would expect to see a small R trend, though it won't be very large- maybe 1% or even less.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Lol no. Come back when Kern flips and Orange votes 80% D.

[Jamison5]

Considering what happened with the House seats in 2018 I would say it probably isn't trending R in any meaningful way.

2018 was the first blue wave since 2008, those kinds of results are to be expected in such an election.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

It's possible, but I would say about 15% likely. The best chance of that happening is in 2024 if a D is elected in 2020.

[Jamison5]

CA polls tend to underestimate democrats, often significantly. Case in point--

I said in the first post that the polls in CA underestimate Democrats. My point was that the polls underestimated the Democrats by 8 points and the new polls are showing a 10-15 point difference from 2016. This means about a 5 point shift when the polling average is adjusted.

[chickentitilater]

California does have a massive illegal alien problem, but let's not get into conspiracy theory (I do wish Democrats support voter ID).

But yes, Trump's 30 point loss in 2016 was a low point and he will obviously do better there in 2020. Against Bernie, I could see him losing the state by 15-20 points due to Bernie doing worse than Hillary in Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, Imperial, San Diego counties. Trump will lose the state of course, but reducing the margin could flip the OC congressional seats.

I am willing to bet that if Bernie is nominated, there is no district in which he will not outperform Hillary, not even Park Slopes

[MT Treasurer]

California does have a massive illegal alien problem, but let's not get into conspiracy theory (I do wish Democrats support voter ID).

But yes, Trump's 30 point loss in 2016 was a low point and he will obviously do better there in 2020. Against Bernie, I could see him losing the state by 15-20 points due to Bernie doing worse than Hillary in Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, Imperial, San Diego counties. Trump will lose the state of course, but reducing the margin could flip the OC congressional seats.

Suuuuuure.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Gavin Newsom was considered a dead duck but he has recovered from the recall effort, Trump wont win Cali

I wouldn't consider that "recall effort" anything worthy of a mention.

Same with Trump swinging California by 32%

[Non Swing Voter]

I've always thought California could trend insanely D even when Dems were winning it by big margins and even before Trump ran as a white grievance candidate. 

If you look at the fundamentals of the state it's basically the epitome of a Democratic trending state.  Lots of big cities + extremely educated suburbs.  Whites were already very liberal in the state.  Fast growing minority populations.  Lots of immigration.  Lots of colleges/young people.  I can't think of any demographic that has been growing in California that is Republican-friendly.  I guess it's getting wealthier, but they're not the kind of wealthy voters that find GOP policies appealing.  I think that Trump loses by 2% more no matter who the Democrat is on the ballot in 2020.  Though I do think Hillary was a particularly strong candidate for California (she seemed to do well with Hispanic and Asian voters in particular).

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Could Trump win the white vote in CA this time? Remember, Romney and Bush '04 won it.

[Politics Fan]

It’s not uncommon for Republicans to poll better than their actual Election Day result in California. Regardless even a small pro Trump swing shouldn’t be treated that significantly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The state is out of play and TX or FL are real possibilities for Dems to win, in Nov

[Cyrusman]

I've always thought California could trend insanely D even when Dems were winning it by big margins and even before Trump ran as a white grievance candidate. 

If you look at the fundamentals of the state it's basically the epitome of a Democratic trending state.  Lots of big cities + extremely educated suburbs.  Whites were already very liberal in the state.  Fast growing minority populations.  Lots of immigration.  Lots of colleges/young people.  I can't think of any demographic that has been growing in California that is Republican-friendly.  I guess it's getting wealthier, but they're not the kind of wealthy voters that find GOP policies appealing.  I think that Trump loses by 2% more no matter who the Democrat is on the ballot in 2020.  Though I do think Hillary was a particularly strong candidate for California (she seemed to do well with Hispanic and Asian voters in particular).

Why are California whites so liberal?

[Skill and Chance]

I'm quite unsure.  There's a plausible argument that it moves further left and there's an equally plausible argument that it peaked with Clinton in 2016 because she was uniquely able to unite wealthy socially liberal businesspeople, moderate Hispanic and Asian voters, and campus left activists, all of whom are overrepresented in CA vs. nationwide. 

[The Mikado]

Thread title: California Trending R?

California:

1988: D 48, R 51
1992: D 46, R 33
1996: D 51, R 38
2000: D 53, R 42
2004: D 54, R 44


2008: D 61, R 37
2012: D 60, R 37
2016: D 61, R 32

[Skill and Chance]

Thread title: California Trending R?

California:

1988: D 48, R 51
1992: D 46, R 33
1996: D 51, R 38
2000: D 53, R 42
2004: D 54, R 44


2008: D 61, R 37
2012: D 60, R 37
2016: D 61, R 32

What that suggests is that the McCain-->Romney-->2016 3rd party/write-in vote was huge in CA, which makes this harder to predict than other states.  Do they stay 3rd party until Trump is off the ballot, go back to Trump, or go to the Democrat outright next time?  Complicating things further, there is likely also a significant block of Bernie supporters who went to Stein because they knew CA was Safe D. 

In the top 2 GE for CA-GOV, Cox basically picked up all of the 2016 "other" vote, Newsom's topline was within 1% of Clinton's, the statewide margin looked like Obama vs. Romney, and Orange County went Dem by <1%.  But of course, Cox wasn't Trump.  I think Biden could pick up a good chunk of the Johnson/McMullin/write-in vote but would lose more leftist votes to Stein types. 

Bernie would be in a great position to pick up the 2016 Stein/LaRiva vote, but he's going to send some of the (larger) Romney->Other vote back to Trump and probably lose some wealthy Clinton supporters to Trump/3rd parties as well.

It really could go either way.  My gut feeling is that Biden would do perhaps 1% better than Clinton with the same PV result and Bernie would do perhaps 2% worse. 

[AGA]

This is like asking if West Virginia is trending D as if anyone cares.

[Skill and Chance]

This is like asking if West Virginia is trending D as if anyone cares.

Whether California is D+20 or D+30 matters significantly for the PV.

[AGA]

This is like asking if West Virginia is trending D as if anyone cares.

Whether California is D+20 or D+30 matters significantly for the PV.

Exactly, meaningless.

[Idaho Conservative]

I've always thought California could trend insanely D even when Dems were winning it by big margins and even before Trump ran as a white grievance candidate. 

If you look at the fundamentals of the state it's basically the epitome of a Democratic trending state.  Lots of big cities + extremely educated suburbs.  Whites were already very liberal in the state.  Fast growing minority populations.  Lots of immigration.  Lots of colleges/young people.  I can't think of any demographic that has been growing in California that is Republican-friendly.  I guess it's getting wealthier, but they're not the kind of wealthy voters that find GOP policies appealing.  I think that Trump loses by 2% more no matter who the Democrat is on the ballot in 2020.  Though I do think Hillary was a particularly strong candidate for California (she seemed to do well with Hispanic and Asian voters in particular).

Why are California whites so liberal?

Because of the SF Bay Area and LA County.  Highly populated, highly educated metros with big tech and entertainment industries respectively.  Outside of SF and LA, Cali whites are strongly R leaning, including in SoCal.  If California had 1940 demographics it would most likely be a Romney-Clinton state.  A lot of CA whites in LA are jewish so that's part of it too. 

[Idaho Conservative]

California would only go R if reconstruction-style policies were put in place, basically that entails most Dems being unable to vote. 

[HarrisonL]

Sorry, but CA is most certainly trending Dem, not GOP. The 2018 Midterms only reinforced the trends that began in the 2016 Presidential Election.