Could Bloomberg/Steyer money bring down Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska)

[Queen Isuelt]

Really think democrats are missing a trick here not going after Dan Sullivan in Alaska. The state has a very fluid and unpredictable and I’m sure the TV market is cheap.

Considering what’s going on with the Governor and Sullivan’s low name ID and he only won by 2pts in a republican year. This must be a target for democrats?

Blitz the airwaves for months and senate seat gained.

[SnowLabrador]

Alaska is Safe R. Trump will win it by double digits, and Sullivan is basically Generic R.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, AK is a special case, it gets oil revenues and gives its residents 1K a mnth a Yang program.  In a wave TN, MT and AK can flip

[NOVA Green]

Voted NO.

Although it is certainly true that a DEM could win this district, the concept that outside "Billionaire $$$" are buying the election would most likely do more harm than damage if done with a means of excessive amounts of dark money.

Not that having an increase of out of state donations towards the official campaign DEM candidate working to unseat Sullivan couldn't bear some dividends, but a strategy of an "air war" has significant limitations, especially in such a vast and remote state (although granted roughly 61% of the pop of Alaska lives in Anchorage, Mat-Su, and the KC Inlet--- all of which should be within range from the largest Media Market)....

You could throw some $$$ into Fairbanks-North Star (14% of the State Pop), and I guess maybe try to gin up some increased numbers in the DEM leaning areas around Juneau (10% of State Pop)...

Maybe I'm wrong, and I'm sure maybe one of our handful of Alaskan Resident Experts might chime in, but having local street cred and networks likely goes much further than the deepest pockets of some remote Billionaires from elsewhere within the United States....

That being said Alaskans are well aware of Climate Change, even although paradoxically all State Residents receive a check every year courtesy of "King Petro"....

Nationalizing the Alaskan Oil Fields might play better "up North" than buying an election...

[Orser67]

Voted yes, but more because this is my sleeper pick of the cycle than because of billionaire money.

[DINGO Joe]

Alaskan oil production has been declining because there's been cheaper/easier oil to go after, hence the hurt to the budget and recent decline in population.  Could get quite unpleasant up there.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Who would the D candidate be?  Mark Begich and Forrest Dunbar already declined to run.  The only candidate listed on Wikipedia is Al Gross, an orthopedic surgeon with no political experience who isn't even a Democrat.

DSCC needs to get better recruiting and the Dems in general need to build a better bench in AK.  I feel like an Angus King type would do really well.

[Frenchrepublican]

NO

I think it would be even counterproductive considering that AK voters are both very pro guns and very pro oil, being affiliated with Steyer and Mike Bloomberg would make you very toxic

[Pollster]

Who would the D candidate be?  Mark Begich and Forrest Dunbar already declined to run.  The only candidate listed on Wikipedia is Al Gross, an orthopedic surgeon with no political experience who isn't even a Democrat.

DSCC needs to get better recruiting and the Dems in general need to build a better bench in AK.  I feel like an Angus King type would do really well.

Gross is exactly an Angus King type and a good fit for the state. He's already been an excellent fundraiser by Alaska standards, and outraised Sullivan. Comes from a political family and is the son of Avrum Gross (former state AG) and well-connected within the Alaska Democratic Party. He opened his campaign with a Mark Putnam video. Very strong recruit.

To answer the question of this thread, I agree with the posters above saying that billionaire money would be a hinderance here rather than a help. The state is incredibly inexpensive to advertise in, and the small population is highly regionally concentrated. The type of money dump OP is describing would overwhelm the voters in a negative way (a very under-studied phenomenon, especially in the Citizens United era). The state also famously plays by its own political rules and the voters evaluate candidates in a starkly different way from the contiguous states (hence why Gross is poised to be strong), the type of messaging Steyer/Bloomberg would likely employ would be highly nationalized and much less effective.

[GeneralMacArthur]

On the subject of money, main way it could help is if Gross were to simply outline his entire campaign strategy to a close ally and have them set up a Super PAC funded by Steyer and run hyper-localized messaging.

Then he wouldn't have to worry about fundraising and could focus on doing photoshoots out in the bush.

[KaiserDave]

Who would the D candidate be?  Mark Begich and Forrest Dunbar already declined to run.  The only candidate listed on Wikipedia is Al Gross, an orthopedic surgeon with no political experience who isn't even a Democrat.

DSCC needs to get better recruiting and the Dems in general need to build a better bench in AK.  I feel like an Angus King type would do really well.

Al Gross is actually a superb recruit.

[Orser67]

I wonder how much (if at all) Gross will benefit from not having to run in the general election as a Democrat. The obvious comparison is Greg Orman's run in Kansas in 2014 (who lost by about 10 points).

[NOVA Green]

NO

I think it would be even counterproductive considering that AK voters are both very pro guns and very pro oil, being affiliated with Steyer and Mike Bloomberg would make you very toxic

There are many folks in rural parts of the US that don't vote primarily on "Gun Rights" related issues...

Can't tell you how many people I know out here in downstate OR where there is an AR-15 in the household, or within a nearby family household that regularly vote Democratic for most elections....

Most voters in Alaska, the majority of whom live in households where a firearm is present, do not vote on the basis of the NRA (Which is now essentially a marketing board for the Gun Mfg Sector), where just like in my community in Downstate Oregon a firearm is typically owned for target practice or hunting...

The Majority of Alaskan Gun Owners are not "Gun Hoarders", which is really where the NRA and the armament industry is shifting their sales, in much the same way as the Tobacco and Alcohol Industry (Yes I still smoke cig's and am basically a "Joe 6-Packer" combined with a few shots of Canadian Bourbon on the Weekend)...

That being said... Bernie vs Biden vs Warren on "Guns and Oil"....   Suspect Bernie would most likely play better on both counts in the 2020 GE to beef the DEM candidate....

Alaska is a quasi Petro State Socialist place in many regards when it comes to the history of the political, economic, and social development of the State over the Years...

[MillennialModerate]

Yes, AK is a special case, it gets oil revenues and gives its residents 1K a mnth a Yang program.  In a wave TN, MT and AK can flip

Agree on all else. But no chance in hell TN flips.

They elected Marsha Blackburn over Phil Bredesen in a Heavy Democratic year

[Frenchrepublican]

NO

I think it would be even counterproductive considering that AK voters are both very pro guns and very pro oil, being affiliated with Steyer and Mike Bloomberg would make you very toxic

There are many folks in rural parts of the US that don't vote primarily on "Gun Rights" related issues...

Can't tell you how many people I know out here in downstate OR where there is an AR-15 in the household, or within a nearby family household that regularly vote Democratic for most elections....

Most voters in Alaska, the majority of whom live in households where a firearm is present, do not vote on the basis of the NRA (Which is now essentially a marketing board for the Gun Mfg Sector), where just like in my community in Downstate Oregon a firearm is typically owned for target practice or hunting...

The Majority of Alaskan Gun Owners are not "Gun Hoarders", which is really where the NRA and the armament industry is shifting their sales, in much the same way as the Tobacco and Alcohol Industry (Yes I still smoke cig's and am basically a "Joe 6-Packer" combined with a few shots of Canadian Bourbon on the Weekend)...

That being said... Bernie vs Biden vs Warren on "Guns and Oil"....   Suspect Bernie would most likely play better on both counts in the 2020 GE to beef the DEM candidate....

Alaska is a quasi Petro State Socialist place in many regards when it comes to the history of the political, economic, and social development of the State over the Years...

Okay dude, cool story but Alaska contrary to Oregon is a republican state so I don't see what your point is
And concerning Oregon you should take a look at the 2016 presidential map by county, you will see that rural Oregon is very republican, the reason why the state is blue is Portand and suburbs

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

French Republican you know that Trump has never lead a Democratic opponent and 2016, Trump only won due to Gary Johnson taking votes away from Hilary. Trump is being impeached and is a criminal. The Crts have stated he should be indicted as Prez and so has GAO. 2016, 2018 and 2020 Trump has failed in every election and he should of lost in 2016. But, we had a chance to rebuild our party on account of Trump.

As far as TN, James Mackler is an Israeli Vet and is an outstanding soldier, that's why I am supporting him. My map doesn't have to be right until a week before election day

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This forum really loves Democrat Alaska.


It can happen in the right circumstances, because it has before it has to be homegrown and not astro-turf funded by billionaires.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

This forum really loves Democrat Alaska.


It can happen in the right circumstances, because it has before it has to be homegrown and not astro-turf funded by billionaires.

No one thought Dems could win KS again and Dems won the Gov and KS looks ripe for a turnover in 2020.

Bredesen has endorsed James Mackler and Jaime Harrison is 2 points behind Graham. This looks like how the 2016 and 2018 election should of played out, but Dems barely lost FL, SD and OK and NH govs

[Astatine]

No one thought Dems could win KS again and Dems won the Gov and KS looks ripe for a turnover in 2020.

So Sabato's Crystal Ball is nobody plus every single other pundit rated this race as tossup?

Bredesen has endorsed James Mackler and Jaime Harrison is 2 points behind Graham. This looks like how the 2016 and 2018 election should of played out, but Dems barely lost FL, SD and OK and NH govs

Who cares whom a Democrat who lost by double digits in a deep red state endorsed?

Change Research is a Dem pollster.

15 points in OK is barely losing? Ok...

So according to that logic, get ready for red MA in 2020.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The candidates are raising and James Mackler is a great soldier, I am enthusiastically endorsing. Waves happen at end of elections not beginning of elections and SD, Noem and FL DeSantis and NH Sununu barely survived by the skin of their teeth in R friendly states

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If Bredeson couldn't get himself elected, what the heck makes you think he can get someone else elected. The Republican candidate has low name recognition and it is a Presidential Year in a Trump state, it is going to be a good 20 point Republican win in Tennessee barring some kind of late scandal.

I don't remember "no one thinking KS would flip". Many on here and in the pundit class were thinking it very possible if not very likely most of last cycle.

[Flyersfan232]

I wonder how much (if at all) Gross will benefit from not having to run in the general election as a Democrat. The obvious comparison is Greg Orman's run in Kansas in 2014 (who lost by about 10 points).

It may hurt him depending how much he ties himself to the dems I believe orman lost because he was view as the defecto dem ironically he would help the dems in 2018 with the governor race but still maybe gross should endorse he liberataian for president to help him?