COVID-19 Mega thread

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

My guess at this point is #3, but 2 and 3 are quite intertwined.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Some potential good news-- paper claims "One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively."

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767

Again, this is all unconfirmed. There is an early paper out promoted by Marc Lipsitch disputing the weather theory, which may be correct. His analysis here.

There is a different but seemingly related paper from a few days ago. Note all the biggest outbreak centers (so far) tend to be in light blue shaded areas:

https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2020/03/11/covid-19-and-its-weather-dependency/



It does seem to sort of fit the data, but there are a lot of confounding variables (most of the countries that are currently in warmer areas tend to be less developed, which tends to mean both fewer travel links to the rest of the world and less ability to test - the biggest exception is probably Australia, but that has a low population and is not all that densely populated and does have some apparent outbreak/community spread).

[Mr. Illini]

I’ll blame the people causing the surge in demand, ie the people buying up all the s**t

Even if everyone bought only 1 pack of toilet paper (which would be quite reasonable on the individual level), stores would still run out of toilet paper, because normally only a small fraction of customers buy it. Everyone wanting even a small stock-up of any item overwhelms the system, and that is just the nature of the system we have in the USA.

This is a policy failure, and is a failure of yourself to recognize in advance that a policy failure was coming.

There are more policy failures coming, so if you don't want to get blindsided again by them as they come at you, I suggest looking forward. They are going to come increasingly fast as we progress, because epidemics move at exponential speed.

People shouldn’t be stockpiling anything. We currently have 45 cases statewide here in Illinois and even if/when it gets worse, we will be permitted to go to the grocery store. People ought to stop panicking. It makes it worse for everyone. We ought to trust the system a little more.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Serious and non-rhetorical question for you all:

Without thinking about left/right politics, and putting every other Trump situation aside, should Trump step down if his bungling of the coronavirus response causes over 5,000+ Americans to die?  His ego won't allow it, but based on the coronavirus response alone, SHOULD he step down if it ends up that bad?

He should step down now. Just over his bungled handling of the pandemic.  Not only was his handling grossly incompetent (see below), but he isn't even able to acknowledge that and hand off the portfolio to someone else, like Pence or Carson, who might have a chance at being competent. He talked about doing so, but it was very obviously all just talk. And he cannot lead the response, he is incapable of leading the response. (He's never actually been capable of doing the job, just playing the role.)

https://twitter.com/michikokakutani/status/1238245491500036097

[emailking]

So the temperature might affect its ability to survive in droplets or something?

[T'Chenka]

Serious and non-rhetorical question for you all:

Without thinking about left/right politics, and putting every other Trump situation aside, should Trump step down if his bungling of the coronavirus response causes over 5,000+ Americans to die?  His ego won't allow it, but based on the coronavirus response alone, SHOULD he step down if it ends up that bad?

No. That is a ridiculous standard. By that standard basically every single world leader would likely have to resign.

He got rid of the pandemic experts and slashed CDC funding 2 years ago, which IMO should be part of the calculation. Most world leaders DID NOT do that.

[Florida Man for Crime]

People shouldn’t be stockpiling anything. We currently have 45 cases statewide here in Illinois and even if/when it gets worse, we will be permitted to go to the grocery store. People ought to stop panicking. It makes it worse for everyone. We ought to trust the system a little more.

The government/CDC suggests (and has suggested for years) having food etc for at least 14 days ready for disasters.

https://www.ready.gov/pandemic

It is wise to have food stockpiled for disasters in general. In the case of infectious diseases, even if food etc will be available later (which it will), it is still better to have an extra supply of things like toilet paper/food so that you DON'T have to go to grocery stores as often later. Every time you go to a grocery store during or near the peak time of the pandemic you risk helping transmit the virus further, so it is socially responsible to be prepared and avoid having to go to the store in the first place.

The greater the extent to which that occurs, the more the epidemic curve can be flattened, the less the medical system will be overwhelmed, and the fewer people are likely to die.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Is anyone else noticing service industry businesses are more empty than usual, when I go out for lunch with co workers normally busy places are like ghost towns.

[Florida Man for Crime]

He got rid of the pandemic experts and slashed CDC funding 2 years ago, which IMO should be part of the calculation. Most world leaders DID NOT do that.

I am aware of that (in fact, I posted the first article that said that somewhere within the first few pages of this thread, back in January/early February when most people were ignoring the virus and thought that it was not a big deal).

But the hypothetical didn't ask whether leaders who have a poor response to the epidemic should step down, it asked whether leaders who lose more than 5k people should step down. And the typical country with a decent sized population is likely to end up with a lot more than 5k dead by the time this is all over.

[Mr. Illini]

People shouldn’t be stockpiling anything. We currently have 45 cases statewide here in Illinois and even if/when it gets worse, we will be permitted to go to the grocery store. People ought to stop panicking. It makes it worse for everyone. We ought to trust the system a little more.

The government/CDC suggests (and has suggested for years) having food etc for at least 14 days ready for disasters.

https://www.ready.gov/pandemic

It is wise to have food stockpiled for disasters in general. In the case of infectious diseases, even if food etc will be available later (which it will), it is still better to have an extra supply of things like toilet paper/food so that you DON'T have to go to grocery stores as often later. Every time you go to a grocery store during or near the peak time of the pandemic you risk helping transmit the virus further, so it is socially responsible to be prepared and avoid having to go to the store in the first place.

The greater the extent to which that occurs, the more the epidemic curve can be flattened, the less the medical system will be overwhelmed, and the fewer people are likely to die.

Personally, I’d say I generally have enough food on hand to last two weeks. I don’t feel the need to go to the store and stuff a cart full of pasta.

As for water, I trust what’s coming from the tap and don’t anticipate that changing soon.

People need to be calm.

[Florida Man for Crime]

So the temperature might affect its ability to survive in droplets or something?

Possibly, with humidity potentially also being relevant.

That remains very speculative though, and other studies have suggested that this is not the most likely to be the case.

And even if it is the case, most likely it just buys us time in the Northern hemisphere. It would probably still spread under other conditions, just somewhat less efficiently. We could definitely use that time though. It is at least one reason for a bit of possible hope, so I will take it.

[T'Chenka]

He got rid of the pandemic experts and slashed CDC funding 2 years ago, which IMO should be part of the calculation. Most world leaders DID NOT do that.

I am aware of that (in fact, I posted the first article that said that somewhere within the first few pages of this thread, back in January/early February when most people were ignoring the virus and thought that it was not a big deal).

But the hypothetical didn't ask whether leaders who have a poor response to the epidemic should step down, it asked whether leaders who lose more than 5k people should step down. And the typical country with a decent sized population is likely to end up with a lot more than 5k dead by the time this is all over.

Actually the hypothetical asked if TRUMP should step down if over 5000 people die due to his response, and part of Trump's response was to go out of his way in advance to cripple the response team and resources.

[pbrower2a]

What do you think of with AIDS? The prominent people (Liberace, Rock Hudson, Arthur Ashe, Freddie Mercury, etc.) who died of it.

It has killed people well-connected to the political elite in China and Iran... I am not going to say who dies next, but it seems deadly enough to strike someone prominent -- a politician, a creative person, a prominent entrepreneur, etc.

[T'Chenka]

Just when you think Trump can't get any lower, he steals the drill vehicle that The Underminer uses in The Incredibles and The Incredibles 2 and starts digging and drilling furiously towards the planet's core.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1238288908431036423

Don't forget folks, "We are all in this together. We must put politics aside, stop the partisanship, and unify together as one nation and one family."

[Virginiá]

A store in Thailand repackaged and sold up to 200,000 used face masks for coronavirus, police chief says

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/thailand-vendor-recycled-and-sold-up-to-200000-face-masks-2020-3

    A group of Thai workers have used the novel coronavirus outbreak to make an extra buck, washing and repackaging old face masks and selling them as new.
    The store owner told police she had sold up to 200,000 used masks.
    The Thai government has since taken full control of face-mask distribution.

“Police found six workers sorting out used face masks and ironing them before folding them in boxes to look like new, unused ones,”The Nation Thailand reported.

The workers, all in their teens, put the masks in washing machines before flattening them with an iron and sending them to market, police said.

According to the Saraburi province police chief, the 47-year-old store owner said she sold up to 200,000 used masks. Workers earned the equivalent of $US0.03 for every mask they recycled, and they each turned out 300-to-400 masks a day.

A day after authorities found the recycled-mask vendor, the Thai government declared it would take full control of face-mask distribution across the country. The country has recorded at least 47 confirmed coronavirus cases and one fatality.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

A store in Thailand repackaged and sold up to 200,000 used face masks for coronavirus, police chief says

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/thailand-vendor-recycled-and-sold-up-to-200000-face-masks-2020-3

    A group of Thai workers have used the novel coronavirus outbreak to make an extra buck, washing and repackaging old face masks and selling them as new.
    The store owner told police she had sold up to 200,000 used masks.
    The Thai government has since taken full control of face-mask distribution.

“Police found six workers sorting out used face masks and ironing them before folding them in boxes to look like new, unused ones,”The Nation Thailand reported.

The workers, all in their teens, put the masks in washing machines before flattening them with an iron and sending them to market, police said.

According to the Saraburi province police chief, the 47-year-old store owner said she sold up to 200,000 used masks. Workers earned the equivalent of $US0.03 for every mask they recycled, and they each turned out 300-to-400 masks a day.

A day after authorities found the recycled-mask vendor, the Thai government declared it would take full control of face-mask distribution across the country. The country has recorded at least 47 confirmed coronavirus cases and one fatality.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I just went to my local HEB and the reality set in: like 75% of the aisles were empty. Folks, please try to stock up on food and water and toiletries ASAP. It looks like a lot of places will be sold out by tomorrow nationwide

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I just went to my local HEB and the reality set in: like 75% of the aisles were empty. Folks, please try to stock up on food and water and toiletries ASAP. It looks like a lot of places will be sold out by tomorrow nationwide

This is getting ridiculous

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I’ll blame the people causing the surge in demand, ie the people buying up all the s**t

Even if everyone bought only 1 pack of toilet paper (which would be quite reasonable on the individual level), stores would still run out of toilet paper, because normally only a small fraction of customers buy it. Everyone wanting even a small stock-up of any item overwhelms the system, and that is just the nature of the system we have in the USA.

This is a policy failure, and is a failure of yourself to recognize in advance that a policy failure was coming.

There are more policy failures coming, so if you don't want to get blindsided again by them as they come at you, I suggest looking forward. They are going to come increasingly fast as we progress, because epidemics move at exponential speed.

Are you seriously suggesting retail stores keep far more inventory than they customarily need on hand simply to meet occasional unexpectable spikes in demand?

It makes far more sense for surge demand to be managed at the manufacturer level than at the retail level.

The principal problem here has not been caused by just-in-time but by single sourcing suppliers based purely on lowest unit cost. This is from the first time that has been shown to cause problems, and it likely won't be the last.

[Tekken_Guy]

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I am 99% sure I am voting Democratic this year.

Nothing in politics since Trump was elected has affected my life personally until this.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

This whole administrations response has been a sh**tshow, people are hoarding essentials, society is all but collapsing as norms are changing, we don't truly know how many people may actually have the disease because OUR GOVERMMENT CAN'T PROPERLY TEST PEOPLE and we don't have the capabilities to handle a large scale pandemic. Meanwhile people in this ADMINISTRATION outright believe this is a hoax to get Joe Biden elected President....

God give me strength.

[T'Chenka]

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I am 99% sure I am voting Democratic this year.

Nothing in politics since Trump was elected has affected my life personally until this.

Good.

Don't focus on the "Democrat" part too much. The bottom line is this: you can vote for a competent president or a dangerous idiot behind the whe to steer America. It's better to have a competent president of any kind than it is to have an idiot lunatic president with the policies you prefer.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I am 99% sure I am voting Democratic this year.

Nothing in politics since Trump was elected has affected my life personally until this.

Same. I was on the edge of voting for Trump out of pure spite to the DNC, but definitely not. The man can’t handle a crisis. A crisis where a lot of people are going to lose their lives, Jobs, and 401ks.

[T'Chenka]

we don't truly know how many people may actually have the disease because OUR GOVERMMENT CAN'T PROPERLY TEST PEOPLE and we don't have the capabilities to handle a large scale pandemic

Fake news.

The government CAN properly test people, they're just refusing to.

You HAD the capabilities to handle a large scale pandemic, until Trump fired everybody and slashed funding.

[Dr. Arch]

This whole administrations response has been a sh**tshow, people are hoarding essentials, society is all but collapsing as norms are changing, we don't truly know how many people may actually have the disease because OUR GOVERMMENT CAN'T PROPERLY TEST PEOPLE and we don't have the capabilities to handle a large scale pandemic. Meanwhile people in this ADMINISTRATION outright believe this is a hoax to get Joe Biden elected President....

God give me strength.

This. So much this. I am so done.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1238318535769808898